Outside Topic SF Giants 2024 - Printable Version
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RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 03-13-2024
(03-12-2024, 10:06 PM)lex24 Wrote:I realize that we take it as an article of faith that spring training statistics mean very little. But is it at all concerning that the players likely to make the team are the players with terrible ST numbers and the players who are tearing the cover off the ball are going to get sent back to the minors? I was thinking about this as 2020 2nd round pick Jimmy Glowenke had his one and only MLB ST AB and hit an HR. Ismael Munguia is hitting .563/.611/.938/1.549, he'll get sent down. JD Davis was hitting .400, OPS 1.271 and was released for Matt Chapman. Trenton Brooks is hitting .438, OPS 1.063; Joey Bart is hitting .474/OPS of 1.016 and they'll get sent down. Cooper Hummel, hitting .333 / 1.056 OPS, will get sent down. Is Meckler making the roster? He's hitting .423 / OPS of 1.060. And pitchers Jack Choate, Hunter Dula, Evan Gates, Wil Jensen, Tanner Kiest, Tyler Myrick, Mat Olsen and Nick Swiney all have 0.00 ERAs. All will be sent down, I'm guessing.(03-12-2024, 09:21 AM)Mick Wrote: I'm worried, a little, about the Stanford players. Beck is hurt, Miller is doing pretty well...3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP. Slater has 7 plate appearances, two walks and has struck out all five At Bats.
Got Barts spring training numbers off MLB site.
Not being sent down is former Cy Young candidate Logan Webb (10.03 ERA). Hayden Birdsong (6.75) and Landen Roupp (6.00) might make it and Mason Black (5.14 ERA) is penciled in as a starter. Reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks (4.91) will obviously make it as will Luke Jackson (4.50). Erik Miller (3.00) just got sent down.
Yaz (.125/.542 OPS) will make it, as will Slater (.000, 6 strikeouts in 7 ABs). Hopefully Marco Luciano (.050) will get sent down. Pat Bailey (.182, but with 4 walks and an HR in 11 ABs), and Blake Sabol is at .182. Late Night LaMonte Wade is at .240, but with a .669 OPS. Matt Chapman stays (.250/.708 OPS) and David Villar (.269/.983 OPS) will get sent down.
And of course, lots of roster guarantees are doing well; e.g., Jung Hoo Lee (.318/.875 OPS), Wilmer Flores (.368/1.057 OPS), Michael Confort (starting to earn his contract at .400/1.012 OPS) and starting shortstop Nick Ahmed (.545 / OPS of 1.779). Otto Lopez might make an interesting backup at SS, he's hitting .278/.909 OPS. Doval and Ryan Walker are both 0.00 OPS, twins Rogers both have 2.25 ERAs, Kyle Harrison's at 2.08 and Ethan Small is 2.45.
Giants are 6-8-2 after starting 0-4-2, so they're 6-4 over their last 10 games. They're 4th in OPS and batting avg. among all MLB teams, 2nd in OBP. T11 for stolen bases, if you can believe it, and they've only played 16 games (most have played 18-19). However, 28th in team ERA and T29 in team WHIP.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 03-13-2024
Remember Randy Elliott?
That is all one needs to know re: the value of spring numbers.
The vets use spring training to tune up and get ready for the grind of the regular season. Others do everything they can to impress management so they will be on the SAC-SF express once the season starts (e.g., Munguai, Matos, Meckler) and, of course, there are the fringe guys hoping for a last shot at the big time somewhere (e.g., Bart/Villar).
The only real competition is in the bullpen. The last three slots are still up for grabs.
Otherwise, I think the following are locks:
Bailey
Murphy
Wade
Flores
Estrada
Ahmed
Chapman
Fitzgerald
Soler
Conforto
Lee
Yaz
Slater
Webb
Harrison
Hicks
Winn
Black
Doval
Rogers
Rogers
Jackson
Walker
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 03-13-2024
(03-13-2024, 10:05 AM)Mick Wrote:(03-12-2024, 10:06 PM)lex24 Wrote:I realize that we take it as an article of faith that spring training statistics mean very little. But is it at all concerning that the players likely to make the team are the players with terrible ST numbers and the players who are tearing the cover off the ball are going to get sent back to the minors? I was thinking about this as 2020 2nd round pick Jimmy Glowenke had his one and only MLB ST AB and hit an HR. Ismael Munguia is hitting .563/.611/.938/1.549, he'll get sent down. JD Davis was hitting .400, OPS 1.271 and was released for Matt Chapman. Trenton Brooks is hitting .438, OPS 1.063; Joey Bart is hitting .474/OPS of 1.016 and they'll get sent down. Cooper Hummel, hitting .333 / 1.056 OPS, will get sent down. Is Meckler making the roster? He's hitting .423 / OPS of 1.060. And pitchers Jack Choate, Hunter Dula, Evan Gates, Wil Jensen, Tanner Kiest, Tyler Myrick, Mat Olsen and Nick Swiney all have 0.00 ERAs. All will be sent down, I'm guessing.(03-12-2024, 09:21 AM)Mick Wrote: I'm worried, a little, about the Stanford players. Beck is hurt, Miller is doing pretty well...3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP. Slater has 7 plate appearances, two walks and has struck out all five At Bats.
Got Barts spring training numbers off MLB site.
Not being sent down is former Cy Young candidate Logan Webb (10.03 ERA). Hayden Birdsong (6.75) and Landen Roupp (6.00) might make it and Mason Black (5.14 ERA) is penciled in as a starter. Reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks (4.91) will obviously make it as will Luke Jackson (4.50). Erik Miller (3.00) just got sent down.
Yaz (.125/.542 OPS) will make it, as will Slater (.000, 6 strikeouts in 7 ABs). Hopefully Marco Luciano (.050) will get sent down. Pat Bailey (.182, but with 4 walks and an HR in 11 ABs), and Blake Sabol is at .182. Late Night LaMonte Wade is at .240, but with a .669 OPS. Matt Chapman stays (.250/.708 OPS) and David Villar (.269/.983 OPS) will get sent down.
And of course, lots of roster guarantees are doing well; e.g., Jung Hoo Lee (.318/.875 OPS), Wilmer Flores (.368/1.057 OPS), Michael Confort (starting to earn his contract at .400/1.012 OPS) and starting shortstop Nick Ahmed (.545 / OPS of 1.779). Otto Lopez might make an interesting backup at SS, he's hitting .278/.909 OPS. Doval and Ryan Walker are both 0.00 OPS, twins Rogers both have 2.25 ERAs, Kyle Harrison's at 2.08 and Ethan Small is 2.45.
Giants are 6-8-2 after starting 0-4-2, so they're 6-4 over their last 10 games. They're 4th in OPS and batting avg. among all MLB teams, 2nd in OBP. T11 for stolen bases, if you can believe it, and they've only played 16 games (most have played 18-19). However, 28th in team ERA and T29 in team WHIP.
No, it’s not concerning.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - BobK - 03-13-2024
https://www.etsy.com/listing/1685155465/alfred-e-neuman-what-me-worry
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 03-13-2024
(03-13-2024, 01:53 PM)Giants Wrote: Remember Randy Elliott?
That is all one needs to know re: the value of spring numbers.
Randy Elliott was an interesting story. Had all the talent in the world, couldn't stay healthy. Was on the injured list regularly, and missed a season and a half prior to 1977 because of rib and shoulder injuries. He worked with Hank Sauer who swore up and down how talented Elliott was, and Elliott wangled an invitation to the SF Giants' 1977 spring training. He was healthy all spring, made the team, was supposed to platoon in LF with Darrell Evans.
In his first plate appearance of the regular season, Doug Rau hit Elliott on his balky should with a pitch, and then during his next plate appearance, his shoulder popped out. And he was shot for the next month. He rebounded, hit .278 from May to August, had three pinch hit home runs including a pinch grand slam. Got hurt again.
https://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/WHERE-ARE-THEY-NOW-Randy-Elliott-Giants-2660151.php
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 03-15-2024
Davis to the A’s for $2.5M plus a potential of $1M in performance bonuses.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 03-16-2024
(03-15-2024, 09:09 PM)Giants Wrote: Davis to the A’s for $2.5M plus a potential of $1M in performance bonuses.
There's something wrong with an arbitration system that deviates so much from market value. In the arbitration, the Giants posted a value of $6.5 million, Davis's reps post $6.95 million, and they tell the Giants any negotiated settlement "needs to start with a 7." Giants get Chapman instead who's better both at bat and in the field. The Giants try to accommodate Davis by seeking a trade, but they can't find any takers. They release him through waivers and still not a single team is interested, despite a number of teams clearly having needs at third base. Davis clears waivers and seven teams inquire about Davis through his agent, and Davis ends up with the A's for (max) half of what the Giants are forced to pay through arbitration. That just seems wrong to me, and the outpouring of sympathy for Davis from a portion of the fan base just seems nonsensical.
Reminds me of Kevin Pillar, who had a below-average 2019 season with the Giants (92 OPS+ for the Giants and 88 OPS+ overall for the season) and made $5.8 million on a one-year contract with the Giants. His agents were holding out for $10 million multi-year deal (?!) for a 0.8 WAR outfielder, who was 1.8 WAR at the plate and -0.7 WAR in the field. A certain prominent local sportscaster was agitating for the $10 million deal. Giants let him go, he ends up making his market value in 2020 at $4.25 million, then $3.6 million in 2021, then just $100k in 2022 (Dodgers signed him to a minor league deal and he only had a brief appearance in the majors), then $3 million last year -- and he's played for FIVE teams in just the four seasons since he's left. So many people wanted the Giants to ridiculously overpay for Pillar, which they do for too many free agents. fans and broadcasters are just unconscionable. Pillar has had 1.1 WAR collectively in the last four seasons. Same situation exists for JD Davis. He's making market value and the Giants dumped him. Boo-freakin'-hoo. Quit complaining about Giants management, getting rid of Crawford and Davis are two of the few things they got right.
Separate question: Giants have been rained out a lot, and have played fewer games than any team in MLB (15). All but four other teams have played at least 20% more games than the Giants and some teams have played 40% more. Think that will have an impact on Giant player performance?
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 03-16-2024
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1710609090' Wrote: 1710609090[/url]']
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1710562164' Wrote: 1710562164[/url]']
Davis to the A’s for $2.5M plus a potential of $1M in performance bonuses.
There's something wrong with an arbitration system that deviates so much from market value. In the arbitration, the Giants posted a value of $6.5 million, Davis's reps post $6.95 million, and they tell the Giants any negotiated settlement "needs to start with a 7." Giants get Chapman instead who's better both at bat and in the field. The Giants try to accommodate Davis by seeking a trade, but they can't find any takers. They release him through waivers and still not a single team is interested, despite a number of teams clearly having needs at third base. Davis clears waivers and seven teams inquire about Davis through his agent, and Davis ends up with the A's for (max) half of what the Giants are forced to pay through arbitration. That just seems wrong to me, and the outpouring of sympathy for Davis from a portion of the fan base just seems nonsensical.
Reminds me of Kevin Pillar, who had a below-average 2019 season with the Giants (92 OPS+ for the Giants and 88 OPS+ overall for the season) and made $5.8 million on a one-year contract with the Giants. His agents were holding out for $10 million multi-year deal (?!) for a 0.8 WAR outfielder, who was 1.8 WAR at the plate and -0.7 WAR in the field. A certain prominent local sportscaster was agitating for the $10 million deal. Giants let him go, he ends up making his market value in 2020 at $4.25 million, then $3.6 million in 2021, then just $100k in 2022 (Dodgers signed him to a minor league deal and he only had a brief appearance in the majors), then $3 million last year -- and he's played for FIVE teams in just the four seasons since he's left. So many people wanted the Giants to ridiculously overpay for Pillar, which they do for too many free agents. fans and broadcasters are just unconscionable. Pillar has had 1.1 WAR collectively in the last four seasons. Same situation exists for JD Davis. He's making market value and the Giants dumped him. Boo-freakin'-hoo. Quit complaining about Giants management, getting rid of Crawford and Davis are two of the few things they got right.
Separate question: Giants have been rained out a lot, and have played fewer games than any team in MLB (15). All but four other teams have played at least 20% more games than the Giants and some teams have played 40% more. Think that will have an impact on Giant player performance?
I have found the whole Davis situation to be fascinating. My conclusion is that the Giants employed sharp tactics, but did nothing wrong. And either Davis or his Agent screwed up.
The key provision is paragraph 7 (b) (2) in the standard players contract. It provides that a Club may terminate a player at any time if that player fails “in the opinion of the Club’s management, to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability to qualify or continue as a member of the Club’s team.“
Thus, the determination lies solely with management. In this instance, once Chapman is signed management determined that Davis lacks the “competitive ability to continue as a member” of the team; not because of Davis’s overall ability, but because of the Giant’s the roster construction. He can’t compete with Chapman, they have Wade/Flores and Soler. There is no spot for him.
Section IX of the CBA then kicks in as to the amount of pay that a player will get if terminated. If it’s during Spring Training, there are two different percentages depending on when the player is terminated. The Giants released him at the earlier time to save them more money.
Obviously I don’t know what Davis’s agent said to him. But when you couple Section 7 (b) (2) with the “if file then trial” position that most teams including the Giants employ, if Davis was not warned about this exact scenario, then his agent failed him. If he was, and decided to roll the dice, it’s on him.
I have little doubt that the Giants wanted to go to arbitration with Davis so they could use this gambit if need be. Sharp tactics. But Zaidi’s duty is to the ownership. It’s not his job to protect the player.
I heard Evan Webeck today, and while he was very careful in choosing his words, he indicated that Davis was very popular, and the clubhouse is not particularly happy with the way this went down. Not upset that they signed Chapman – but not happy with the way Davis was treated.
So I wonder if this was another example of the Giants being “Pennywise and pound foolish.”
On your question about the rainouts – yes I do think it has an impact. Particularly the pitchers. They make sure that they get the work in on the day of the rain out. But it’s not the same as pitching in a game. Hopefully they can get enough in between now and the start of the season that it won’t matter much. If at all.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 03-16-2024
I don’t think it will have a long term impact on the Giants. The team is well-known for being a first class organization re: how they care for the players and their families.
Quite frankly, I think Davis’ agent did him a great disservice. He should have known all the rules regarding arbitration. If he didn’t, he was negligent. If he did, he failed to give his client sound advice. (I think it was the latter).
In the last week, I wonder how many players have talked to their agents about this case.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 03-16-2024
(03-16-2024, 01:31 PM)Giants Wrote: I don’t think it will have a long term impact on the Giants. The team is well-known for being a first class organization re: how they care for the players and their families.
Quite frankly, I think Davis’ agent did him a great disservice. He should have known all the rules regarding arbitration. If he didn’t, he was negligent. If he did, he failed to give his client sound advice. (I think it was the latter).
In the last week, I wonder how many players have talked to their agents about this case.
The Giants seem to be making a determined effort to destroy that reputation. I question whether the current reputation of management is somewhat cold and calculating. Players essentially being the equivalent of chess pieces. At the risk of incurring Mick’s wrath, I think that was part of the rationale in bringing in Melvin.
If the agent didn’t go through the scenario, then you’re right. There is always the chance that he did and Davis decided to roll the dice. We don’t know that part probably never will. Unless Davis fires his agent.
The other thing is timing. I believe the filing deadline for arbitration is something like January 11. And most teams, including the Giants, have a file and trial policy. They won’t negotiate during that time. Davis knew they were going after Chapman. But what really sealed the deal was when the Giants signed Soler. Until that signing, there was a good chance that even if the Giants sign Chapman, Davis could stick because he could be the designated hitter.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 03-16-2024
(03-16-2024, 02:23 PM)lex24 Wrote:(03-16-2024, 01:31 PM)Giants Wrote: I don’t think it will have a long term impact on the Giants. The team is well-known for being a first class organization re: how they care for the players and their families.
Quite frankly, I think Davis’ agent did him a great disservice. He should have known all the rules regarding arbitration. If he didn’t, he was negligent. If he did, he failed to give his client sound advice. (I think it was the latter).
In the last week, I wonder how many players have talked to their agents about this case.
The Giants seem to be making a determined effort to destroy that reputation. I question whether the current reputation of management is somewhat cold and calculating. Players essentially being the equivalent of chess pieces. At the risk of incurring Mick’s wrath, I think that was part of the rationale in bringing in Melvin.
If the agent didn’t go through the scenario, then you’re right. There is always the chance that he did and Davis decided to roll the dice. We don’t know that part probably never will. Unless Davis fires his agent.
The other thing is timing. I believe the filing deadline for arbitration is something like January 11. And most teams, including the Giants, have a file and trial policy. They won’t negotiate during that time. Davis knew they were going after Chapman. But what really sealed the deal was when the Giants signed Soler. Until that signing, there was a good chance that even if the Giants sign Chapman, Davis could stick because he could be the designated hitter.
I think Giants (CB poster) is correct...I think this was JD's agent's snafu, Matt Hannaford of ALIGND. Hannaford had to perform, JD Davis fired MVP sports group to go with Hannaford and ALIGND, so Hannaford was under pressure to perform. They could have accepted the Giants' offer of $6.4 million one hour prior to the arbitration filing deadline (this makes me think the Giants didn't go into this with malign intention), but ALIGND didn't even respond until there was 10 minutes to go before deadline and they said "any number you have needs to start with a 7." The difference between the two sides was negligible, just $400k. Free agent position players not named Ohtani were already having a very difficult time getting signed. Interestingly, ALIGND has a reputation similar to Boras, they get more dollars for their client than their actual value. This may have been a case of Hannaford pushing too hard for an arbitration win, thereby winning the battle and losing the war -- and ripping the Giants afterward for what was likely his fault:
Which agents squeeze out the most value for their MLB clients? | theScore.com
As for Davis's popularity in the clubhouse, I think Chapman will trump that popularity if he keeps hitting .333 with an HR every 12 at bats (like he did in spring training as of this post), to say nothing of his vacuum cleaner skills at 3B. The entire pitching staff, I suspect, will prefer Chapman and Ahmed versus Crawford and Davis.
BTW, I've read multiple media reports that indicate that the Players Association pushed for arbitration losses to be guaranteed whereas arbitration wins aren't guaranteed. I've been looking for Slater's comments (he's the Giants' PA rep), but haven't found it yet.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 03-16-2024
Quick note re: games played. SF had played 17 prior to today (incl. two 9 inning tie games). After today’s pair, they have now played 19 (8-9-2). I don’t think this should be an issue.
Note: The Dodgers have also played 19 (incl. ties).
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 03-18-2024
Snell signs with SF.
2024 salary - $15 million
2025 salary - $30 million (player option)
Signing bonus of $17 million payable in 2026
RE: SF Giants 2024 - BobK - 03-18-2024
Wow. Good news for sure. And the perfect contract
RE: SF Giants 2024 - old spanish trail - 03-18-2024
Excellent, even if he only goes 5 (can he stretch it to six?) .
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 03-18-2024
When healthy, this is probably the best pitching staff in baseball:
2023 Cy Young Award winner (Blake Snell)
2023 Cy Young Award runner up (Logan Webb)
2023 All-Star (Alex Cobb)
Best left-handed starter in the minors (Kyle Harrison)
2021 Cy Young Award winner (Robbie Ray)
All-Star closer in Doval. Giants team ERA ranked 3rd in the NL last year, and they've added Snell, Ray, Hicks, Harrison (full season) and lots of good young pitchers coming up.
All throwing to (soon) what may be the best catcher in baseball (+7 Rtot, best on the team). Two Gold Gloves on the left side of the infield. Estrada, +2 Rtot; Flores, +1 Rtot. Lee is supposed to be a great CF, Yaz 2nd best on team with +5 Rtot in RF, Haniger +2 Rtot in LF.
And suddenly, Farhan can land the big free agents. And now, I will buy some tickets. LOTS of tickets.
And while I'm on the topic of signing free agents, maybe the Giants and San Francisco would have a better reputation if the visiting teams stayed somewhere other than the Westin St. Francis. The LUMA, for example, is right by Oracle. There are better hotels in better areas in San Francisco.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 03-18-2024
A couple of additional items…
SF gives up their 3rd round draft choice (in addition to their #2 which they lost when they signed Chapman) and $500K in international signing dollars (in addition to the $500K they lost when they signed Chapman).
Also, the Giants are now in the first tier of luxury tax penalties. At this point, they are on the hook for a $4 million penalty. This could change as the season progresses and they add and subtract players.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 03-19-2024
(03-18-2024, 08:56 PM)Giants Wrote: A couple of additional items…
SF gives up their 3rd round draft choice (in addition to their #2 which they lost when they signed Chapman) and $500K in international signing dollars (in addition to the $500K they lost when they signed Chapman).
Also, the Giants are now in the first tier of luxury tax penalties. At this point, they are on the hook for a $4 million penalty. This could change as the season progresses and they add and subtract players.
If only they could find someone to take Conforto's albatross of a contract. They should promote Luis Matos, with eight extra base hits in ten hits this spring. As a 21 year old, he hit .353/.404/.626/1.030 in AAA last year. And he did pretty well in the majors, .250/.319/.342/.661, with just 33 strikeouts in 253 plate appearances.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 03-19-2024
(03-19-2024, 05:28 AM)Mick Wrote:(03-18-2024, 08:56 PM)Giants Wrote: A couple of additional items…
SF gives up their 3rd round draft choice (in addition to their #2 which they lost when they signed Chapman) and $500K in international signing dollars (in addition to the $500K they lost when they signed Chapman).
Also, the Giants are now in the first tier of luxury tax penalties. At this point, they are on the hook for a $4 million penalty. This could change as the season progresses and they add and subtract players.
If only they could find someone to take Conforto's albatross of a contract. They should promote Luis Matos, with eight extra base hits in ten hits this spring. As a 21 year old, he hit .353/.404/.626/1.030 in AAA last year. And he did pretty well in the majors, .250/.319/.342/.661, with just 33 strikeouts in 253 plate appearances.
Conforto is my pick for a major rebound. He’s a year back. Slimmer. Better playing shape. 25 HRs. .450 slg percentage.
Lee, Soler, Ahmed, Hicks, Ray, Chapman, Snell. That is quite a haul.
Giants rotation should be very good, and if a few things line up it could be the best in baseball. Defense is significantly improved. They should hit more. And they even have a little bit of speed.
By my count they will have five starters (Soler, Bailey, Ahmed, Chapman, Lee) in the opening day lineup that were not on the roster to open the season last year. And 14 on the 26. That is a major overhaul. And a needed one.
A tip of the hat to Zaidi. And to the much maligned ownership group. They went “all in” this year.
87 wins.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 03-19-2024
Watched the Giants vs. Royals tonight. A few conclusions:
1. Conforto will have a good hitting line tonight...he is 2 for 3 at this writing, both hits being two of the weakest hits I've ever seen. He didn't have any errors, but he misplayed TWO balls in left field that would have embarrassed a little leaguer. Really wish Matos was in LF. He had a home run tonight, three RBIs.
2. Murphy might be the worst defensive catcher I've ever seen. His throws to second looked like he's suffering from vertigo. His throws weren't within a zip code of second base. He had a double and two strikeouts.
3. Chapman didn't have any hits, but he made two plays in the first four innings that JD Davis couldn't make in his dreams, one a Brooks Robinson level play.
4. Estrada had three hits, four RBIs and a grand slam. He looks ready.
5. Lots of buzz about Blake Snell. No buzz at all about Renel Brooks-Moon's departure.
Curious...how do you feel about Renel Brooks-Moon departing the Giants? Couldn't come to an agreement with the team, they negotiated, she left.
And separately...could you make the case that the Giants improved themselves this year more than the Dodgers did? After all, Ohtani isn't pitching this year, and the Giants added CF Lee, CYY#1 Snell, CYY#2 Ray, 3B Chapman, new SP Hicks, DH Soler, SS Ahmed, C Murphy...