Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-13-2022

I liked "Russian cruiser promoted to submarine" and "it's not sinking. It's a special buoyancy operation".

Not only does the loss of the Moskva pose a big problem for the rest of the Black Sea fleet, it also was likely providing some anti-air coverage for Russian ground forces in  Crimea and the coastline. Could open up more opportunities for strikes there or require Russia to rotate other anti-air systems.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-13-2022

Somewhere Roman Hrybov is smiling.  He’s the Ukrainian border guard on Snake Island who uttered the now famous phrase “Russian warship, go f*** yourself”.  I Didn’t realize that the Moskva was on the receiving end of the taunt.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_warship%2C_go_fuck_yourself

(If the link doesn’t work it’s because it contained a four letter word).

Nice to know that 50 or so days later, the Russian warship did as it was told.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BigJohn043 - 04-13-2022

On Mariupol, read somewhere over the weekend that the UKR got three helicopters in with supplies and two made it out with the wounded.  That is something but not very much.  Must be very desperate in there.

I just don't see how they realistically break the siege.  The nearest UKR troops are pretty far away and I just don't see that kind of advance in any realistic scenario.

OTOH, US soldiers held out in Bataan / Corregidor for ~4 months.....

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-13-2022

(04-13-2022, 05:59 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  

(04-13-2022, 05:43 PM)Goose Wrote:  Did the Moskva get too close to Odesa, did the Ukrainians use an aircraft, or did they have "help"?

Yes on the aircraft, but maybe not the way you think…




BC

To distract it? That may well have happened, but the purpose was to find it. Once the drone had the ship in sight, the Ukrainians knew exactly where to send the anti-ship missiles. The missiles still had to acquire, but it is much easier if you essentially know where the target is. Some cruise missiles have the ability to receive updates in flight, but if they had the position nailed at launch that probably was good enough. The Moskva is supposed to have had the ability to shoot down the drone. The Moskva at the very least should have expected the possibility of an attack and been prepared to shoot down the incoming missiles. I would like to be a fly on the wall hearing why that didn't happen explained to Putin. I hope for their sake the Captain, XO, and TAO went down with the ship.
Impressive use of a drone in an 18 knot wind. That can make it harder. I hope the Ukrainians were able to recover it successfully.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-13-2022

From the article I posted earlier about Moskva, open source analysts had figured out patterns of her deployment. That was posted 6 days ago. May have been simple as somebody reading that article and throwing up a TB2 in known locations where Moskva has been operating, get coordinates, fire off the ASMs and let the radar guidance on the missile take care of the fine tuning in the terminal phase. Even if you lose the TB2, a good trade. Still it is a pretty damning indictment of Russian naval air defenses if they can't take down some subsonic missiles. Probably a human error, may have thought they weren't in danger. 

Ukrainians have used their S-300s to reportedly take out supersonic missiles, and it's the same tech on the Russian ship. Radar operator hitting the vodka too hard?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-13-2022

(04-13-2022, 06:30 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I liked "Russian cruiser promoted to submarine" and "it's not sinking. It's a special buoyancy operation".

Not only does the loss of the Moskva pose a big problem for the rest of the Black Sea fleet, it also was likely providing some anti-air coverage for Russian ground forces in  Crimea and the coastline. Could open up more opportunities for strikes there or require Russia to rotate other anti-air systems.

The Russian frigates do have anti-air capabilities that are actually more modern than the Moskva had. They have a very clever antenna system, but it is not state of the art. That said, air defense isn't their primary role and if the Moskva couldn't defeat a drone and couldn't defeat two anti-ship missiles I wouldn't feel very confident if I were in one of those frigates. There also aren't many of them. The Black Sea fleet is a hurting pup right now.
That said, the Kilo submarine fleet his pretty much impervious to anti-ship missiles. They are able to launch cruise missiles while submerged. They cant carry a whole lot of them. but they are still a problem and will remain a problem unless Ukraine can deny them their home port or they break due to over-use.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-13-2022

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/heres-exactly-whats-in-the-800-million-u-s-military-aid-package-to-ukraine

Good details here on the latest US aid package. The howitzers are towed apparently. The unmanned coastal defense boats look pretty neat, seem to be mostly for antimining operations.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-13-2022

I saw a calculation that the Moskva represented a quarter of the Russian tonnage in the Black Sea.  So,wow.

I appreciate the discussion here.  I know we are all speculating, but the theories seem at least plausible. The TB2 might have functioned both for distraction and targeting purposes.  Maybe the Russian sailors were concerned about the TB2 precisely because it could have been used to target the ship?  Still, as seems a theme in this war, the Ukrainians have hit on the right combination of ingenuity and chutzpah, combined with Russian incompetence and perhaps a bit of luck to do what few thought possible.  Slava Ukraini!

I imagine that the captain, XO, and virtually all the sailors are dead, despite Russian assertions that they were rescued.  Remember the Kursk? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_submarine_disaster  Russian Naval safety and maintenance  is so bad that Russia’s initial story, that weapons onboard the Moskva spontaneously exploded, was actually plausible.  Given that the Neptune is only rated for ships at 5,000 tons or less, and the Moskva is 19,000 tons, either Ukrainians were sandbagging, really lucky, or Russian naval carelessness made the Moskva more vulnerable than it should have been.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-14-2022

US DoD says Moskva still afloat. States they have no idea if missile strikes were the cause (this seems implausible to me).

Then again we have been publicly stating that we are not giving them intelligence to strike targets outside of Ukraine, so of course we would try to publicly disclaim that sort of knowledge. 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1514622696402960384?s=20&t=wsWkzJpWr70tNzAmOjKgaw[/tweet]

60nm south of Odessa is a location you would be only if you thought Ukraine had no ASM capability, and consistent with where it had been operating from the open source intelligence. Pretty big intelligence failure on Russia's part, and a brobdingnagian success for Ukraine to keep their capabilities intact and secret. The other Russian ships moving away from coast also gives credence to the missile claim. If it was an accident, why change location?

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/chrstphr_woody/status/1514624309398056962?s=20&t=n_AZTaNH4lqIUQp_3bOz7w[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-14-2022

(04-13-2022, 09:52 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I saw a calculation that the Moskva represented a quarter of the Russian tonnage in the Black Sea.  So,wow.

I appreciate the discussion here.  I know we are all speculating, but the theories seem at least plausible. The TB2 might have functioned both for distraction and targeting purposes.  Maybe the Russian sailors were concerned about the TB2 precisely because it could have been used to target the ship?  Still, as seems a theme in this war, the Ukrainians have hit on the right combination of ingenuity and chutzpah, combined with Russian incompetence and perhaps a bit of luck to do what few thought possible.  Slava Ukraini!

A drone has been used in Yemen to target a warship, so it isn't unheard of. However, it also hasn't yet become common. That said, the Moskva should have immediately shot it down. They are in a war zone. If it flies, it dies. Failure to do so indicates some level of incompetence.

Quote:I imagine that the captain, XO, and virtually all the sailors are dead, despite Russian assertions that they were rescued.  Remember the Kursk? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_submarine_disaster

The Kursk was sunk when one of it's own torpedoes exploded. It happens. See SSN-589.  Arguable Russian rocket propelled torpedoes are inherently more dangerous, but for sure a submerged submarine is unlikely to survive such an event. Totally different case.

Quote:Russian Naval safety and maintenance  is so bad that Russia’s initial story, that weapons onboard the Moskva spontaneously exploded, was actually plausible.  Given that the Neptune is only rated for ships at 5,000 tons or less, and the Moskva is 19,000 tons, either Ukrainians were sandbagging, really lucky, or Russian naval carelessness made the Moskva more vulnerable than it should have been.

BC

Russian surface ships are designed to be "one hit wonders". The Moskva had over twice the hitting power of an equivalent US ship. Look at the rows of missile boxes lining the forward 2/3 of the ship. This doesn't include the two VLS that you can't see embedded in the superstructure. The Moskva was designed to shoot down the aircraft sent by a CV to sink her, fight her way close enough, and overwhelm the CV with anti-ship missiles. There would be enough anti-ship missiles that even if some were shot down, it wouldn't matter. The Moskva was not expected to survive the experience. With all that ordinance packed into the ship, any hit is likely to hit something that will explode. That explosion will recursively start other explosions. In other words, Russian ships are floating bombs. Damage control is rudimentary because it is largely futile. Speculating, she may have been saved because she did not have a full load of anti-ship missiles. No targets for them, why carry them? Less things to go boom. The US DoD appears to be saying she experienced a "magazine explosion". No ship survives that unless the magazine wasn't anywhere near full.

That said, she didn't sink, at least not yet. It appears the crew abandoned ship pretty early on, so maybe not many died. As of now, the claim is that they will tow her to Sevastopol. Towing a damaged warship often fails for various reasons, including enemy action. We don't know her condition, so we can't speculate if they will succeed. It is probable she is out of the fight for the duration in any case. Extensive damage like she undoubtedly has takes time to fix, and if I am the Russians I am not sure I would tie up a dry dock for months to do it. Repairs may require equipment and materials that are not present in Crimea. The Russians may need that dry dock later for other things of more immediate value.

As an update:
"He said the damaged Russian warship was making its way across the Black Sea, although a senior defence official later said it was unclear whether it was moving under its own power or being towed. Russian state media said the 510-strong crew had been evacuated and the ship was being towed."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/14/russia-moskva-ship-ukraine-black-sea

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-14-2022

Annnnnnd now she's down, Russian MOD states "sank while being towed in a storm". The biggest ship to sink since WWII. 



Interesting thread on how Ukraine may have pulled off this incredible victory.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1514499866394873858?s=20&t=QvuExKzRqk8pLGk1BA97WQ[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-14-2022

(04-14-2022, 01:20 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Annnnnnd now she's down, Russian MOD states "sank while being towed in a storm". The biggest ship to sink since WWII. 

Towing a damaged ship in any significant sea state is never a sure thing. A great outcome for Ukraine.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - newguy - 04-14-2022

and late at night on this date (April 14th) 110 years ago, Titanic struck an iceberg.  
she sank shortly after midnight.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-14-2022

My reference to the Kursk was to the fact that a handful of sailors survived the initial explosion and sinking. They wound up dying of asphyxia after about six hours when their oxygen ran out. Multiple countries with subs in the region offered to help rescue the sailors but Russia declined. Even if they had agreed the sub’s tracking beacon had been disabled.

Still, Russia doesn’t give a darn about its soldiers and sailors. Witness the soldiers who are coming back from the Ukrainian war with Frostbite.  If the sailors were rescued from the ship, it was purely happenstance.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-14-2022

(04-14-2022, 02:46 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Still, Russia doesn’t give a darn about its soldiers and sailors. Witness the soldiers who are coming back from the Ukrainian war with Frostbite.

You are of course correct. However, incompetence can produce the same result, and it is difficult to know which one dominates. The Wehrmacht in WW II, who more or less did care about the troops, failed to provide winter clothes to their troops too.

Quote:If the sailors were rescued from the ship, it was purely happenstance.

Probably not BC. While Russia doesn't care about it's sailors, the sailors do care a lot about each other. There is loyalty there for sure. I am confident the people involved did all they could to save as many as possible. That loyalty can't produce competence that isn't there, but it will cause those involved to do all they can. The behavior of Russian sailors in the accidents that we do know about, like the K-19, is in general selfless and exemplary. Their country doesn't deserve them.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 04-14-2022

(04-14-2022, 03:32 PM)Goose Wrote:  The behavior of Russian sailors in the accidents that we do know about, like the K-19, is in general selfless and exemplary. Their country doesn't deserve them.

I assume you're differentiating between the behavior of the sailors vs that of the soldiers. The soldiers have behaved despicably. Rape, torture, murder, targeting of civilians, looting, etc. etc. etc.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-14-2022

I haven’t been able to verify this yet, but it looks like about 54/500 sailors were rescued.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1514586953546715138?s=21&t=Rxkjirh_d-lNCO5UezuGFQ[/tweet]

Incompetence or indifference?  In neither case does Russia look too good.

BC

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[tweet]https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1514737253804826629?s=21&t=Rxkjirh_d-lNCO5UezuGFQ[/tweet]

Wonder what’s worse these days, being a Russian general killed by Ukrainians or being a Russian admiral, being arrested by Russia.  I would steer clear of windows if I were him.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 04-14-2022

It's Day 51.  Ukraine has officially lasted longer than France in World War II.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-14-2022

(04-14-2022, 05:38 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  

(04-14-2022, 03:32 PM)Goose Wrote:  The behavior of Russian sailors in the accidents that we do know about, like the K-19, is in general selfless and exemplary. Their country doesn't deserve them.

I assume you're differentiating between the behavior of the sailors vs that of the soldiers. The soldiers have behaved despicably. Rape, torture, murder, targeting of civilians, looting, etc. etc. etc.

Sailors are "different" for three reasons. First, sailors don't interact with civilians, enemy or friendly. Serving on a warship is 1% exhilaration, 1% sheer terror, 40% mind-numbing work, and 58% boredom. You sleep in the same relative discomfort in peace or war, eat the same food, and do the same tasks. In peacetime, the sea is always trying to kill you. In war, both the enemy and the sea are trying to kill you. It you concentrate too hard on one, the other will get you. And the sea never sleeps. How sailors would react to enemy civilians is anybody's guess, but the other two problems occupy 100% of their efforts. They may fire missiles at "targets" that are enemy cities, but 97% of the people on the ship have absolutely no idea who they are shooting at. They also don't even know where they are. They don't need to.

Second, sailors are generally "a better class of people". There are conscripts in the Navy, but not nearly as many. Enemy #1, the sea, ensures that many of the sailors are relatively highly trained professionals. There are many Minchman on Russian naval vessels. They train and lead the lower ranks. That doesn't happen in the Army. This situation is especially true on submarines, where the lowest NUB conscript mess cook can kill everybody on the boat if he empties the trash incorrectly. Training and NCO leadership are essential. On surface ships, it is less so, but still significant. The deck apes aren't as highly trained, but even they have battle stations, leaving port stations, etc. and jobs to do. As a result, the Navy tends to attract more professional individuals who are highly trained in specialized functions. You can't run a ship without them. Discipline is essential. If you are unable to do your job, the ship may be damaged and sink. No only you will die but others will die. Sailors know this, so the pressure to "pull your weight" is intense.

Third, sailors are clannish. You are on the same ship for months at a time with the rest of the crew. There is no place to hide. You have to help each other get through it because there is no place else to go. Even the Moskva, a large vessel, was 612 feet long. You can't escape anything. As a result, a strong sense of responsibility builds up around protecting your own. Even people you don't like become "us". You have to get along. It is a social contract. "Nobody can do that to our pledges. Only we can do that to our pledges".

As a result of this, the Russian navy has often displayed great courage and self-sacrifice to save the ship and to save shipmates. If only 54 guys got off the Moskva, I am sure it wasn't because people weren't trying. If one of her magazines exploded, it is surprising it was that many. Remember, when HMS Hood aft magazine blew up, there were 3 survivors out of 1,418. On the USS Arizona, which was sunk in a harbor, 334 survived out of 1,177. The Bismarck had a crew of 2,221 and 115 survived. That wasn't a magazine explosion however.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-15-2022

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1514941186397683715?s=20&t=wBi-C9eFK1DWRdu3Ucs8xw[/tweet]

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