Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-17-2024

Seems the GOP can't get the rule to consider the bills passed. Rules committee adjourned. Don't know enough about how the house works to know how bearish I should be.

I think if this blows up, enough R's that have held off on signing the discharge petition would then do so. But GOP may oust their speaker, and then who knows what happens.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-17-2024

(04-17-2024, 07:42 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Seems the GOP can't get the rule to consider the bills passed. Rules committee adjourned. Don't know enough about how the house works to know how bearish I should be.

I think if this blows up, enough R's that have held off on signing the discharge petition would then do so. But GOP may oust their speaker, and then who knows what happens.

The "Who knows what happens" certainly applies if the GOP ousts the speaker. Of course, the Democrats can prevent that if they wish, but will they? Another who knows. I think we can, for the first time ever in history on the Cardboard, achieve unanimity that this entire situation in toto sucks.

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TrumpCard - TrumpCard - 04-17-2024

The failure to pass the rule was totally expected. The House has been passing everything under suspension of rules, which requires a 2/3 vote. The fact we’re at this point is not a reason for any more negativity than yesterday.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 04-18-2024

Another attempt to expand the war

Quote:Two alleged spies suspected of planning to sabotage German military aid for Ukraine have been arrested in the southern German state of Bavaria.

- BBC

(This is distinct from the Russian spy scandal in Austria, also reported by BBC today)

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RE: TrumpCard - dabigv13 - 04-18-2024

(04-17-2024, 09:28 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  The failure to pass the rule was totally expected. The House has been passing everything under suspension of rules, which requires a 2/3 vote. The fact we’re at this point is not a reason for any more negativity than yesterday.

I don't think that's correct in this instance. The issue here is the rules committee has to pass a rule to consider the legislation. This is a vote that requires a simple majority, and is passed typically on a party line vote in that committee. Rules committee members are typically appointed to that committee because they are loyal to the house leadership.

It could still pass the committee with democratic votes but in my understanding this pretty much never happens, though like an opposition party voting for the majority speaker when he loses his own conference it may be a possibility now that we are through the looking glass.

The legislative plan is not to pass this through suspension of rules. Johnson could try that I guess but that's not what this is. There will be an amendment process, and the vote is not on the suspension calendar. I'm not sure he would get 2/3 if he tried it.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-18-2024

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/five-futures-russia-stephen-kotkin

Very long but interesting article about the possible futures for Russia

Also, D's voted with some R's to pass the rule to consider the 4 bills. Vote on Saturday. Not trying to get my hopes up too much but seems things are trending in right direction.

And finally, a nice video of a Russian bomber spinning to the ground. Over 500km from the front, after launching long range missiles at Ukraine. Unclear what happened to make it go down- Russian AD mistake? Ukraine special forces attack well behind enemy lines? Engine trouble?

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1781182577925124138

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-19-2024

(04-18-2024, 10:45 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/five-futures-russia-stephen-kotkin

Very long but interesting article about the possible futures for Russia

Also, D's voted with some R's to pass the rule to consider the 4 bills. Vote on Saturday. Not trying to get my hopes up too much but seems things are trending in right direction.

Indeed they are. I THINK it might also send a message to the GOP "problem children" that the D's will deliver enough votes to defeat a "privileged" motion to immediately remove the speaker. This may dissuade them from employing that tactic to stop progress on these bills. Ukraine obviously hopes so.

Quote:

And finally, a nice video of a Russian bomber spinning to the ground. Over 500km from the front, after launching long range missiles at Ukraine. Unclear what happened to make it go down- Russian AD mistake? Ukraine special forces attack well behind enemy lines? Engine trouble?

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1781182577925124138

Always great to see Russian attrition. My guess, lacking any other data at all, is that it was a "loss due to operations". The Backfire has always been overly complex and hard to maintain. The airframes are also quite old, so the idea that something just broke isn't hard to believe.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-19-2024

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1781234782262681988

Ukraine publishes purported video of the AD command center during Tu22 shootdown.
Distance claimed here now 300km

Russian sources claim one or two dead crew.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-19-2024

(04-19-2024, 07:21 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1781234782262681988

Ukraine publishes purported video of the AD command center during Tu22 shootdown.
Distance claimed here now 300km

Russian sources claim one or two dead crew.

The Ukrainians are claiming they used a "modified" S-200 missile to hit the bomber that then flew a significant distance trying to RTB before it crashed. This is at least possible. The video shows a control center that is much more modern than an original S-200 control van. The original S-200 is SARH. It was designed to hit high-flying strategic bombers, which is the way the Russians are currently using the Backfires. The illuminator for the S-200 is a CW signal. All RWRs will go nuts when they detect a CW signal in C band. Perhaps the Russian crew wasn't using theirs, figuring they were "safe". Given that Ukraine shot down an A-50 recently, it would seem unlikely they would be that complacent, but it is possible.

I am as of now still unconvinced. While it is certainly possible the TU-22 was hit by pellets from a near miss, flew for a while towards its base, and then the plane came apart, it seems unlikely. Poland has modernized S-200s that are certainly "modernized". Possibly that is what Ukraine is using. The SARH issue is still present however. We should get more info relatively soon.

UPDATE: https://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Engagement-Fire-Control.html#mozTocId776539 for a description and pictures of the "original" S-200 control center.

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TrumpCard - TrumpCard - 04-19-2024

(04-18-2024, 10:45 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/five-futures-russia-stephen-kotkin

Very long but interesting article about the possible futures for Russia

Also, D's voted with some R's to pass the rule to consider the 4 bills. Vote on Saturday. Not trying to get my hopes up too much but seems things are trending in right direction.

And finally, a nice video of a Russian bomber spinning to the ground. Over 500km from the front, after launching long range missiles at Ukraine. Unclear what happened to make it go down- Russian AD mistake? Ukraine special forces attack well behind enemy lines? Engine trouble?

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1781182577925124138

Good call on the rules committee vote. Senate on break next week. That’s a bit of unfortunate timing. Hopefully everything will go smoothly on the House, the Senate will come back ready to vote on 4/29, and the artillery shells conveniently will be waiting in trucks or train cars near the Polish/Ukrainian border.

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RE: TrumpCard - Goose - 04-19-2024

(04-19-2024, 07:53 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Good call on the rules committee vote. Senate on break next week. That’s a bit of unfortunate timing. Hopefully everything will go smoothly on the House, the Senate will come back ready to vote on 4/29, and the artillery shells conveniently will be waiting in trucks or train cars near the Polish/Ukrainian border.

I guess it is too much to ask that they stay in session and pass this legislation on 4/22 before they go home. The "extra" Ukrainian deaths during that week don't matter enough to change a few vacation plans. I also hope the artillery shells will be waiting in trucks/trains for the go-ahead. For some reason I kind of doubt that will turn out to be the case.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-19-2024

Quote:Schumer: “For the information of colleagues, members should plan to be here over the weekend, if necessary, to work on both FISA and the supplemental.”

https://x.com/frankthorp/status/1781340370921496980

Looks like Senate may indeed stay in session if this all stays on the rails.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-19-2024

(04-19-2024, 08:28 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  

Quote:Schumer: “For the information of colleagues, members should plan to be here over the weekend, if necessary, to work on both FISA and the supplemental.”

https://x.com/frankthorp/status/1781340370921496980

Looks like Senate may indeed stay in session if this all stays on the rails.

Super! The Senate is apparently behaving responsibly. I just hope that the majority leader has ensured he will have a quorum and enough votes present to pass at least the Ukraine legislation. If it comes as a package, which as I understand it will be the case, it will just be a single vote. Make it quick and let everybody get on the road :-). Of course, the assumes the House actually passes these things on Saturday.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-19-2024

I was hoping the Senate would stay in session, but I didn't want to jinx it.  Good that someone shows urgency.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-19-2024

Pentagon says they're working on getting things ready for if the package passes.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/19/pentagon-prepares-package-of-artillery-air-defenses-for-ukraine-as-house-sets-to-vote-00153328

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-19-2024

(04-19-2024, 12:49 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Pentagon says they're working on getting things ready for if the package passes.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/19/pentagon-prepares-package-of-artillery-air-defenses-for-ukraine-as-house-sets-to-vote-00153328

Unfortunately the article describes the process of determining what will be delivered and only then starting to pull the items together. I find the following quote "amusing" (NOT).

Quote:“They will have that recommendation to the secretary very quickly, and that gets to the president shortly thereafter,” the official said.

[rant]
If they were even halfway competent the secretary would have already seen the recommendation and a signature copy would already BE on the president's desk. A warning order should weeks ago (if not months ago) have been sent to the affected commands. They wouldn't have moved the material yet but would be all ready when they got the "execute" order. Tick Tick Tick. The article says the some of the aid would be there "within days", and other parts would arrive within weeks. Of course, these "days" start when the President signs the bill and the logistics people get their orders and figure out how to execute them. We are fortunate the Senate is staying on the job. That saved a week. Of course, since we aren't ready to go, a lot of that week will be wasted.

I know I vent perhaps too much about these kind of delays, but people die because of them. There are many difficulties that we can't control. Not controlling the ones we can is a real problem. The old "for want of a nail" quote is a real thing, and one never knows exactly which failure to perform on our part will be the final straw that causes Ukraine to be defeated. Like most accident investigations, such defeats usually are caused by a chain of failures. Removing any one of them would have changed the outcome. Our military needs to be better than this.
[/rant]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-19-2024

I guess I agree.  But let's remember to be more worked up about the pointless 6 month delay than the pointless 1 week delay.  What did the House accomplish by defenestrating McCarthy and resisting the bill that passed with a bipartisan supermajority in the Senate?  The only difference I can discern between the Senate bill that the House rejected and the pending House bill is that the House bill characterizes a portion of the Ukraine aid as a loan, even though we all know that Ukraine isn't going to be able to repay it.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-19-2024

(04-19-2024, 06:37 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  I guess I agree.  But let's remember to be more worked up about the pointless 6 month delay than the pointless 1 week delay.  What did the House accomplish by defenestrating McCarthy and resisting the bill that passed with a bipartisan supermajority in the Senate?  The only difference I can discern between the Senate bill that the House rejected and the pending House bill is that the House bill characterizes a portion of the Ukraine aid as a loan, even though we all know that Ukraine isn't going to be able to repay it.

I can't be worked up about that on this thread without at least the appearance of a Terry rule violation. I instead treat it as one of the things we can't control, like bad weather. Also, I guess I don't expect politicians to behave in a "professional" manner. Politics doesn't work like that. However, I have every reason to expect that the military should always behave in a professional manner and have contingency plans for all events. Some of these plans may not be very "good" because the situations involved are themselves "so bad". The eventual passage of a major Ukraine aid bill wasn't certain, but it also wasn't all that improbable. The DOD at all levels should have been 100% "ready to go" when the bill is signed into law. That isn't a big ask. They aren't ready, and that cause me to get "worked up".

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 04-19-2024

(04-19-2024, 09:09 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(04-19-2024, 06:37 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  I guess I agree.  But let's remember to be more worked up about the pointless 6 month delay than the pointless 1 week delay.  What did the House accomplish by defenestrating McCarthy and resisting the bill that passed with a bipartisan supermajority in the Senate?  The only difference I can discern between the Senate bill that the House rejected and the pending House bill is that the House bill characterizes a portion of the Ukraine aid as a loan, even though we all know that Ukraine isn't going to be able to repay it.

I can't be worked up about that on this thread without at least the appearance of a Terry rule violation. I instead treat it as one of the things we can't control, like bad weather. Also, I guess I don't expect politicians to behave in a "professional" manner. Politics doesn't work like that. However, I have every reason to expect that the military should always behave in a professional manner and have contingency plans for all events. Some of these plans may not be very "good" because the situations involved are themselves "so bad". The eventual passage of a major Ukraine aid bill wasn't certain, but it also wasn't all that improbable. The DOD at all levels should have been 100% "ready to go" when the bill is signed into law. That isn't a big ask. They aren't ready, and that cause me to get "worked up".

Amen!!!!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - lex24 - 04-20-2024

(04-19-2024, 09:09 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(04-19-2024, 06:37 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  I guess I agree.  But let's remember to be more worked up about the pointless 6 month delay than the pointless 1 week delay.  What did the House accomplish by defenestrating McCarthy and resisting the bill that passed with a bipartisan supermajority in the Senate?  The only difference I can discern between the Senate bill that the House rejected and the pending House bill is that the House bill characterizes a portion of the Ukraine aid as a loan, even though we all know that Ukraine isn't going to be able to repay it.

I can't be worked up about that on this thread without at least the appearance of a Terry rule violation. I instead treat it as one of the things we can't control, like bad weather. Also, I guess I don't expect politicians to behave in a "professional" manner. Politics doesn't work like that. However, I have every reason to expect that the military should always behave in a professional manner and have contingency plans for all events. Some of these plans may not be very "good" because the situations involved are themselves "so bad". The eventual passage of a major Ukraine aid bill wasn't certain, but it also wasn't all that improbable. The DOD at all levels should have been 100% "ready to go" when the bill is signed into law. That isn't a big ask. They aren't ready, and that cause me to get "worked up".

Well, can you truly separate the military from politics? I don’t think we ever could.  But I think it’s worse now.

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