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Re: Question for WIM and comment for Garvin - stupac2 - 10-24-2014

(10-23-2014, 09:49 PM)Treebound link Wrote:I think I saw a comment in another thread, but statistically, when was Hogan at his best?  Yes, it's somewhat subjective, but the QBR rating of last week and the year is not stellar.

2013 was better than 2012. This year is worse (or similar to previous, depending on what you're looking at), but it's hard to know if that's because Hogan has regressed (which a lot of people are saying), or if the OL is significantly worse this year (14 sacks so far this year after 14 in twice as many games last year), or something else altogether or a combination of factors.

Stats are here: http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/516357/kevin-hogan

Re: QB Situation for Next Year - Bruce Wang - 10-26-2014

(10-24-2014, 03:17 AM)garvin link Wrote:Gotta say I don't recall a single person on this board calling for Kevin Hogan to take over at quarterback. All the buzz was for Nottingham. But, yes, that change was definitely one for the better.

I started beating the drum for Hogan - I believe shortly after the UW game.  IIRC I thought his name was Kyle Hogan.  My rationale was that at least he could run, which was better than Nunes who could neither run or pass.  There was also quite a bit of buzz about him during camp.  My other reasoning was that Nunes had no future and if he beat out Nottingham, then Nottingham wasn't the future either.  I thought there would be value to getting game experience for Hogan who seemed to have a considerably higher ceiling.  I did not even imagine that a Rose Bowl run could happen.  I have to admit the future is calling phenomenon makes me want to see Chryst next year.  Just need to trust Shaw on this.

My expectation is that Hogan is staying unless he plays out of his mind the rest of the season.  You would think that a starting QB with a Rose Bowl Ring is having a pretty good time in college.  With regards to Hulk's point, I've been lucky.  If you try to work for and with people smarter than you and went to high school in a sh!thole town, life is more like college - even if you went to Stanford.


Re: QB Situation for Next Year - CTcard - 10-26-2014

(10-24-2014, 05:49 AM)81alum link Wrote:By mid October 2012, after we had seen Hogan run his miniature "package" a few times, quite a few people called for him or at least expected to see a lot more of him. 

http://thecardboard.org/board/index.php/topic,6703.15.html

Really quite fascinating to read that old thread - before I was a poster over here.

At least in that thread, WIM gets credit for the first pro-Hogan comment, predicting on 10/20 that Hogan would be the 2013 starter. This was right after Cal game. Hogan would get his shot two games later vs Colorado after Nunes' disastrous game vs WSU.

hurlburt88 was the first to state that he thought Shaw would work him more into the offense and perhaps become starter if Nunes got injured - that comment the next day on 10/21.

Two more days later, Farm93 caught Shaw gushing over Hogan in the mid-week press conference - though he only inferred from that a 2013 starting role for Hogan.

And that was about the sum of the pro-Hogan sentiment.

After the WSU game, the Nunes complaints ramped up, but there was nothing more pro-Hogan in the immediate aftermath up to where that thread ended 3 days before the Colorado game. 

Over on the Bootleg, there was a guy who had been stumping for Hogan since the early summer in a very obnoxious, internet kind of way with lots of general comments that Hogan was far and away the most athletic, best everything on the roster. Always figured that was a high school friend of Hogan's.

No need to get THAT personal - Redrum - 10-27-2014

Quote:after we had seen Hogan run his miniature "package" 

Cowboy Indian must have been laughing too hard and I beat him to the post.

Re: QB Situation for Next Year - Cardinal96 - 10-27-2014

I am really hoping Chryst will be the starter next year.  With Hogan, what you see is what you get and his ceiling is an average Pac 12 QB.  Most observers would place him in the bottom half of Pac 12 quarterbacks this year.  Our offensive problems this year don't start and end with Hogan.  We have been hurt by less-than-stellar pass protection and run blocking, the lack of a workhorse running back and receivers with the dropsies.  That said, Hogan's mediocre play has contributed to our sluggishness.  Even on a solid outing (for him) against OSU, you saw multiple examples of locking onto receivers, not seeing open receivers and throws that were off mark.

If he is starting next year, it will confirm that the coaching staff hasn't seen enough of Chryst or Burns to believe that they are more likely to lead our team to victory.  I trust their judgment, but I will be adjusting my expectations for the season accordingly.

We have seen nothing of Chryst, obviously, so there is no way to know how good of a QB he may be.  The optimist in me is hoping he impresses the coaching staff in training camp enough to win the starting position, like Winston was able to do last year at FSU.

Re: QB Situation for Next Year - 81alum - 10-27-2014

Hogan's obvious advantage is that he is a big, durable running QB.  Perhaps that quality has not been sufficiently exploited, but it is a good quality to have.

We can speculate about Crower, Burns, Chryst and their potential at throwing the pass, but do we know how they might compare to Hogan at running the ball and staying upright?  How do they compare in size/weight/speed and did any of them have a reputation for running?

Re: QB Situation for Next Year - stupac2 - 10-27-2014

Eh, we hardly run Hogan as it is, I think that whichever QB is the best pocket passer and has the best command of the playbook (whatever that means next year) will win the job.

Re: QB Situation for Next Year - FarmBoy - 10-27-2014

Quote:I am really hoping Chryst will be the starter next year.

As long as the cause is not an injury to Hogan, this would be a fantastic outcome. If Chryst is able to prove himself enough to unseat a two-time Pac12 champion winning QB with 30+ starts under his belt, we'd be in great shape. But I highly doubt Shaw will pull the string based on practice reps performance when he has a starting QB with 20+ wins and a decent career record.

Re: QB Situation for Next Year - MustardtheBallCarrier - 10-27-2014

(10-27-2014, 11:57 AM)FarmBoy link Wrote:
Quote:I am really hoping Chryst will be the starter next year.

As long as the cause is not an injury to Hogan, this would be a fantastic outcome. If Chryst is able to prove himself enough to unseat a two-time Pac12 champion winning QB with 30+ starts under his belt, we'd be in great shape. But I highly doubt Shaw will pull the string based on practice reps performance when he has a starting QB with 20+ wins and a decent career record.

Correlation vs. causation.  While I think reasonable minds can disagree on Hogan, I don't think looking at his win percentage is particularly instructive for all the same reasons that wins and losses by a starting pitcher are losing significance in baseball.  How would another quarterback fare with a dominant defense and run game churning out NFL draft picks the last two years, plus pass protection that (until this season) rarely broke down and gave all day to throw?  In my humble opinion, this team has been winning the past two seasons with quarterback as the weakest position group on the field, except for the kicking game.

I am cautiously optimistic that Shaw's analysis will be more robust than simply Hogan's win-loss record. 

Re: QB Situation for Next Year - Hey - 10-27-2014

I'm of the the belief that outside of Luck, Chryst is our best QB recruit since Trent Edwards.  My concern is that he wont have the proper offensive coordinators around.  I'm not worried about him, I'm sure his dad will tell him enough of what he needs to know.  I just don't have confidence in the coaches to put him in a position to succeed. 

Re: QB Situation for Next Year - BostonCard - 10-27-2014

(10-27-2014, 04:39 PM)MustardtheBallCarrier link Wrote:Correlation vs. causation.  While I think reasonable minds can disagree on Hogan, I don't think looking at his win percentage is particularly instructive for all the same reasons that wins and losses by a starting pitcher are losing significance in baseball.  How would another quarterback fare with a dominant defense and run game churning out NFL draft picks the last two years, plus pass protection that (until this season) rarely broke down and gave all day to throw?  In my humble opinion, this team has been winning the past two seasons with quarterback as the weakest position group on the field, except for the kicking game.

I am cautiously optimistic that Shaw's analysis will be more robust than simply Hogan's win-loss record.

I'd say tight end was the weakest position group on the field last year.  Two years ago, it probably was QB, as we had Nunes for the first half, and a very inexperienced Hogan for the second half.  But also, the wide receiving corps (outside Drew Terrell) didn't do much to distinguish itself.  Montgomery had an off year (and was injured).  To give you an idea of how bad things were for our WR's, our top receiver was a tight end.  The entire corps of wide receivers had only 18 more receptions than Ertz did.  Combined, the accounted for 36% of the receptions, and 37% of the total receiving yards of our offense.  31 players had more receiving yards than our entire wide receiving group.  Hell, West Virginia, Duke, Oregon State all had two wide receivers that had more receiving yards than our entire group.

BC

Re: QB Situation for Next Year - 81alum - 10-27-2014

(10-27-2014, 11:48 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:Eh, we hardly run Hogan as it is, I think that whichever QB is the best pocket passer and has the best command of the playbook (whatever that means next year) will win the job.
Well, Hogan has 4 rushing TDs this year, and over his three seasons he gets quite a few first downs with his feet.  Nunes was a pocket passer and Hogan's ability to run is what initially got him the chance to play.  I'm not necessarily arguing the Hogan is our man for next year, I'm just wondering if any of the other three can match his running or if they are all pure pocket passers.


Re: QB Situation for Next Year - JohnR34231 - 10-27-2014

We can all fantasize about who we would like it to be, but it is going to be Hogan. Hopefully his successor (whether it is Burns or Chryst) will get some meaningful experience so he is ready to take over the reins in 2016.

Re: QB Situation for Next Year - JohnR34231 - 10-27-2014

(10-23-2014, 08:17 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Has anyone heard anything about Chryst from practice observations?  I haven't seen or heard anyone say anything along the lines of "Chryst is really impressing in practices" or "Chryst looks like he has the most upside potential of any of the QBs."  Weren't these kinds of things said about Luck during his redshirt year?

Haven't heard anything lately, but there was a comment from the preseason that he was looking "near Luck-like" or some such verbiage.

Re: QB Situation for Next Year - CompSci87 - 10-27-2014

(10-27-2014, 11:15 PM)JPRI link Wrote:he was looking "near Luck-like"

Neck beard?

Re: QB Situation for Next Year - JohnR34231 - 10-28-2014

(10-27-2014, 11:37 PM)CompSci87 link Wrote:[quote author=JPRI link=topic=10961.msg103721#msg103721 date=1414476942]
he was looking "near Luck-like"

Neck beard?
[/quote]

You know what they say. Dress for success.

Re: QB Situation for Next Year - FarmBoy - 10-28-2014

Quote:Correlation vs. causation.  While I think reasonable minds can disagree on Hogan, I don't think looking at his win percentage is particularly instructive for all the same reasons that wins and losses by a starting pitcher are losing significance in baseball.  How would another quarterback fare with a dominant defense and run game churning out NFL draft picks the last two years, plus pass protection that (until this season) rarely broke down and gave all day to throw?  In my humble opinion, this team has been winning the past two seasons with quarterback as the weakest position group on the field, except for the kicking game.

I am cautiously optimistic that Shaw's analysis will be more robust than simply Hogan's win-loss record.

Of course football is a team sports. But win percentage or not, he'll have 30+ games of experience under his belt, career passer rating of more than 140, a better than 2:1 TD to INT ratio, 8+ rushing TDs, etc. He took over the position from a starter with a 7-2 record (yes, behind a dmoninant defense, but still noteworthy) and leapfrogged a recruit who was as highly touted as the player many hear are now clamoring for. He's also played, and won, in some very tough environments. I think Chryst will have to be other-worldly in practice (most likely with the second/string string) and Hogan would have to melt down for Shaw to start weighing Chryst's "potential" against the known commodity which has delivered results. I just don't see it.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a Hogan apologist (well, perhaps more than many people here), but from what I know of Shaw and what I've seen of Hogan, I really think it's unlikely there will be a change at QB if Hogan chooses to return.

Re: QB Situation for Next Year - IdCard83 - 10-28-2014

Having been on that team I can tell he was too good to not play and like Luck he was not going to stay for 5 years.  After 2 weeks of pre-season camp both the rising soph QBs left.  That would be Babe Laufenberg and Grayson Rogers.  One to UOP and one to Indiana.  So that left us with 2 QBs who were capable.  I guess he needed some experience in case Schonert got hurt.

Re: QB Situation for Next Year - GoodGrief - 10-28-2014

(10-28-2014, 01:17 PM)IdCard83 link Wrote:Having been on that team I can tell he was too good to not play and like Luck he was not going to stay for 5 years.  After 2 weeks of pre-season camp both the rising soph QBs left.  That would be Babe Laufenberg and Grayson Rogers.  One to UOP and one to Indiana.  So that left us with 2 QBs who were capable.  I guess he needed some experience in case Schonert got hurt.

Can you elaborate on that? I'd love to know more about what Elway did during those 2 weeks of pre-season camp that blew everybody away and made his competitors leave the team

Re: QB Situation for Next Year - Stymie - 10-28-2014

I was living in Palo Alto when Elway arrived in the late summer, and went to a few practices (all open to the public, in the fields near the soccer "stadium").  Elway was throwing bullets from day one.  Schonert was a very good QB who had decent NFL career, but compared to Elway he was nothing.  I remember Ken Margerum talking in the papers about the "Elway Cross," which was the pattern made by the pointy end of the football which receivers had indented in their chests if they let an Elway pass slip even slightly through their fingers.  He was easily the QB with the best mechanics and arm strength that I have ever seen (sorry Andrew....).