Sunday evening thoughts - Elon - Printable Version

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RE: Sunday evening thoughts - Elon - TriangleTree - 10-20-2026

AFAIC, if we somehow manage to beat NC State on a late Friday night and find a way to steal another win (preferably cal), I'll count this season as a step in the right direction, stats be damned.

There's probably about a 25% chance of us finding 2 more wins, but one can "dream"

I fully subscribe to all of the stats and analysis and agree that this has not been being a good team so far, I'm just hopeful that they can put it together, eke out a couple more wins and have some confidence to build upon. Sometimes that's all it takes to set the right trajectory. 

A non-competitive game this weekend will really suck. C'mon Tavita, prove Andrew right!

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RE: Sunday evening thoughts - Elon - bbm233 - 10-20-2026

According to ESPN Analytics, we have the following chances to win our remaining games:
24.2% vs NC State
2.5% vs Louisville (yes, 2.5%!)
6.8% vs VT
24.2% vs Kal
10.2% vs SMU

Based on my understanding of probabilities, that means a 42% chance that we can beat one of NC State or Kal, and very little chance of another victory to get to a 5-7 record.

BTW, everybody was so excited about the recent $50m contribution, but it is depressing to know that some schools spend that much on players every year.

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RE: Sunday evening thoughts - Elon - cctop - 10-20-2026

(10-20-2026, 01:01 PM)bbm233 Wrote:  Based on my understanding of probabilities, that means a 42% chance that we can beat one of NC State or Kal, and very little chance of another victory to get to a 5-7 record.

...and a 53% chance to win one of the next five games. That's purely from a mathematical perspective but it sounds about right.

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RE: Sunday evening thoughts - Elon - TriangleTree - 10-20-2026

bbm233 dateline='[url=tel:1792526514' Wrote:  1792526514[/url]']
According to ESPN Analytics, we have the following chances to win our remaining games:
24.2% vs NC State
2.5% vs Louisville (yes, 2.5%!)
6.8% vs VT
24.2% vs Kal
10.2% vs SMU

Based on my understanding of probabilities, that means a 42% chance that we can beat one of NC State or Kal, and very little chance of another victory to get to a 5-7 record.

BTW, everybody was so excited about the recent $50m contribution, but it is depressing to know that some schools spend that much on players every year.

Yikes
Based on those ESPN chances, probability of 5-7 or better is just under 10%

Oh well, beat the wolfpack

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RE: Sunday evening thoughts - Elon - msqueri - 10-20-2026

I tend to model win probabilities more based on Sagarin. That gives us a 28.9 percent chance of reaching five and 6.2 percent chance of reaching six. There's a 28.8 percent chance we don't win another game. Clearly 3-4 wins on the season is still the modal outcome, as it always has been.

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RE: Sunday evening thoughts - Elon - jacket3ree - 10-20-2026

So the new way of thinking is to unburden ourselves from the weight of expectation? 

The most interesting thing about the Elon game was seeing three Elon fans at SFO Sunday night as I disembarked from a flight from Philadelphia. I said nothing to them and could barely muster an 'I wonder if they won' in my head. Looks like they did. Joy.

After reading the Cardboard grades and hopes to maybe get to 4 or 5 wins somehow after a decade in the desert of CFB irrelevance, I came across ACC midterm grades:

Mid Terms Posted

If you want the quick take, there's no Stanford grade inflation. Solid F.

"It brings me no joy to give a failing grade to one of our nation's elite institutions, but there's some work to be done before finals if we're going to come out of the 2026 season with a passing grade. Tavita Pritchard has a group that is 1-4 against power-conference opponents and ranks 133rd nationally in scoring margin (-18.3 points per game). Outside of a 34-27 home win against Georgia Tech back on Sept. 26, there haven't been a lot of encouraging signs for closing the gap with the rest of the conference. Grade F"

Grade it on a curve if you want. Still failing:

Boston College C-
Cal D
Clemson D
Duke C+
FSU D
Georgia Tech D
Louisville C+
Miami A
NC State C-
North Carolina B-
Pitt B-
SMU B
Stanford F
Syracuse C-
Virginia C
VA Tech B-
Wake A

Some Tech fans declared the Key era over for losing to effing Stanford. There's where both programs sit.

Until proven otherwise I fear Andrew Luck is Stanford's Buster Posey and Pritchard its Vitello but without even success at a lower level that everyone knew wouldn't translate anyhow.

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RE: Sunday evening thoughts - Elon - Nobadeer - 10-20-2026

NC St is a flaky team and LSJU can beat them. 

VaTech likewise - Cal played its backup QB and still edged VT. So LSJU can beat VaTech too, although the East coast record hasn't been great. Aside from the VaTech win, Cal is in near total disarray. JKS is readying himself for the transfer portal. LSJU can beat Cal.

So that's at least 3 more Ws. Bowl game here we come.

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RE: Sunday evening thoughts - Elon - martyup - 10-20-2026

(10-20-2026, 07:11 PM)Nobadeer Wrote:  NC St is a flaky team and LSJU can beat them. 

VaTech likewise - Cal played its backup QB and still edged VT. So LSJU can beat VaTech too, although the East coast record hasn't been great. Aside from the VaTech win, Cal is in near total disarray. JKS is readying himself for the transfer portal. LSJU can beat Cal.

So that's at least 3 more Ws. Bowl game here we come.

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RE: Sunday evening thoughts - Elon - KartyFan - 10-20-2026

Prediction markets have the following odds, fairly in line with what most are saying here:

4+ wins: 55%
5+ wins: 31%
6+ wins: 6%

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaafwins/college-football-win-total/kxncaafwins-26stan

~30% odds of winning on Friday. So far we have looked decent (at least in stretches) against bad teams and horrible against good teams. Let's see what we look like against a "meh" team.

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RE: Sunday evening thoughts - Elon - fullmetal - 10-20-2026

Without Matt Rose and a stout run defense, I think the season has turned a bit even more than when Kilstrom went out.  Guessing Nicholson still isn't good to go. Cursed season.

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RE: Sunday evening thoughts - Elon - Sam Leopold - 10-20-2026

I'm going to have to politely ask you to use a better source for odds than Kalshi buddy.  Please don't help legitimize those feral jackals.  They're worse than noise.

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RE: Sunday evening thoughts - Elon - KartyFan - 10-21-2026

(10-20-2026, 11:01 PM)Sam Leopold Wrote:  I'm going to have to politely ask you to use a better source for odds than Kalshi buddy.  Please don't help legitimize those feral jackals.  They're worse than noise.

Any sources for that last claim?

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RE: Sunday evening thoughts - Elon - Goose - 10-21-2026

(10-20-2026, 01:01 PM)bbm233 Wrote:  According to ESPN Analytics, we have the following chances to win our remaining games:
24.2% vs NC State
2.5% vs Louisville (yes, 2.5%!)
6.8% vs VT
24.2% vs Kal
10.2% vs SMU

Using these probabilities there is a 46.9% we win no more games and go 3-9. The probability of going 4-8 is 39.9%. The probability of going 5-7 is 11.7%. The probability of 6-6 is 1.4%. The probability of 7-5 is 0.069%. The probability of 8-4 is 0.001%. As others have pointed out the probability of winning at least four games is slightly greater than 50-50.

Of course these probabilities are not cast in stone. Of particular interest IMO is our future trajectory vs Kal's future trajectory. If Kal gets their act together they have on paper a significantly better team that we do. However, they aren't at present playing up to their on-paper potential, and it is possible that discrepancy will increase. If it does that can greatly greatly improve our chances.

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RE: Sunday evening thoughts - Elon - Spiny_Norman - 10-21-2026

(10-20-2026, 01:01 PM)bbm233 Wrote:  According to ESPN Analytics, we have the following chances to win our remaining games:
24.2% vs NC State
2.5% vs Louisville (yes, 2.5%!)
6.8% vs VT
24.2% vs Kal
10.2% vs SMU

Louisville, VT and Cal will all be road games. Stanford has lost 14 straight away from home (across 3 coaching staffs) and most of those losses have not been close. Big Game is a different animal and also the only road game played within 2 times zones of Stanford so the game in Berkeley might be more competitive than other road match ups. But the low odds vs. Louisville and VT is reflective of Stanford's poor road play. ACC travel really seems to be tough for Stanford football.

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RE: Sunday evening thoughts - Elon - BostonCard - 10-21-2026

(10-21-2026, 06:51 AM)KartyFan Wrote:  

(10-20-2026, 11:01 PM)Sam Leopold Wrote:  I'm going to have to politely ask you to use a better source for odds than Kalshi buddy.  Please don't help legitimize those feral jackals.  They're worse than noise.

Any sources for that last claim?

Well, theres the recent caee of the guy found to be putting out fake polls and then insider trading on polymarket on the races he put out fake polls on.

BC

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RE: Sunday evening thoughts - Elon - KartyFan - 10-21-2026

(10-21-2026, 10:23 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  

(10-21-2026, 06:51 AM)KartyFan Wrote:  

(10-20-2026, 11:01 PM)Sam Leopold Wrote:  I'm going to have to politely ask you to use a better source for odds than Kalshi buddy.  Please don't help legitimize those feral jackals.  They're worse than noise.

Any sources for that last claim?

Well, theres the recent caee of the guy found to be putting out fake polls and then insider trading on polymarket on the races he put out fake polls on.

BC

Oh, for sure there are cases of manipulation. And low-volume markets put out wonky/wrong probabilities.

But generally speaking, it’s a betting/prediction market and is a useful data point, just as Vegas odds are more useful than pundits on ESPN. 

And if anyone disagrees, you have a great money making opportunity on Kalshi :)

To be clear, I am not arguing that Kalshi and similar providers are on balance good for society.

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