Outside Topic SoCal Fires - Printable Version
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RE: SoCal Fires - TrumpCard - 01-09-2025
Prayers for everyone directly affected by the fires.
There's significant fog of war preventing us from knowing all the details of what's happening. For example, the LA Times' estimate just went from 2000 structures lost to 9000 structures lost. I imagine most of those structures burned yesterday, but the update took until dark this evening. Relatedly, we should react with skepticism to politicized reports of events. Some of the opinions we're seeing are based on misunderstandings about what happened or why. At this point, I'm just in the mode of sending care to those who need it and gratitude to those who earned it.
RE: SoCal Fires - ADPinWDC - 01-09-2025
We are staying in Orange County, and the level of disgust with gross incompetence and negligence by LA Mayor and LAFD Chief, plus Gov Newsom is at record levels.
The Mayor was over in Ghana for an Inauguration (why?), and Mayor Bass cut LAFD $18 million last year.
Planning for water supply was confoundingly stupid, I would say "Criminal Negligence".
I was in the similar horrible fires in 1993 -- Altadena, Malibu, PLUS Laguna down South.
I was watering our roof at 5:30am after waking to smoke and a wall of fire in the San Gabriels.
SAME EXACT CONDITIONS: Swirling and gusting Santa Ana winds across a bone dry landscape from no rain in six months.
I stomped out foot long embers across the street, so their fire did not endanger the whole block.
Fire trucks were TRIAGING homes to save -- we saw three destroyed within two blocks.
Water at hydrants collapsed before Noon.
We heard stories on Eaton Canyon and nearby of people jumping into swimming pools to survive.
A few homeowners thought ahead and had water pumps with a generator to pump swimming pool water onto the house. No generator; the pump was useless.
Some areas of Altadena looked like Gaza.
Like Palisades now. Some of those homes will never be rebuilt.
Agree with other comments: Insurance companies -- like in Miami and the Jersey Shore -- will stop writing policies in Calif. The level of negligence on water management and tank storage is incredible. Some leaders need to go to jail, others recalled.
Then, LAFD accidently sent out an Evacuation text message to EVERY 213 mobile phone in LA County... imagine the dangerous traffic congestion!!
And now they may be forced tomorrow to use ocean salt water to dowse fires ... which then will make it difficult for vegetation to recover (salt), so that when rain does come, the soil is not held and MUDSLIDE SEASON begins !!
Real Estate agents in AZ are seeing inquiries jump 10-fold they say, from Calif residents saying, "This is the last straw -- we are out!".
Some of this utter cataclysm will not see recovery.
Some of this was preventable -- and the losses could extend to $100 billion they say (!)
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/01/09/los-angeles-fire-department-accidentally-sends-evacuation-alert-to-all-of-l-a-county/
RE: SoCal Fires - 2006alum - 01-09-2025
I get that there's a ton of frustration right now, but let's avoid making it political. If we get many more complaints about obviously political ranting, we'll close this thread.
RE: SoCal Fires - fullmetal - 01-10-2025
There is an alumni group now called Alumni Helping Alumni where folks are asking for and offering help related to the fires:
https://groups.stanford.edu/topics/38203/feed
RE: SoCal Fires - SkiBum80 - 01-10-2025
Regarding the point that political discussions may be part of this thread,
I note there has been a long standing thread on Ukraine that is largely political discussion in nature.
And that has been OK because it is labeled as Outside Topic.
So our cardboard readers/posters are aware beforehand that politics may be part of the discussion and can choose to participate or not.
As this thread is also labeled Outside Topic I have no complaint nor surprise that discussion might include politically related thoughts.
RE: SoCal Fires - 2006alum - 01-10-2025
(01-10-2025, 08:08 AM)SkiBum80 Wrote: Regarding the point that political discussions may be part of this thread,
I note there has been a long standing thread on Ukraine that is largely political discussion in nature.
And that has been OK because it is labeled as Outside Topic.
So our cardboard readers/posters are aware beforehand that politics may be part of the discussion and can choose to participate or not.
As this thread is also labeled Outside Topic I have no complaint nor surprise that discussion might include politically related thoughts.
The Ukraine thread is a different beast and a special exception because it is a necessarily political issue. Many of us have friends and family directed affected by these fires, and we're here to share information, lend support, and emote. I, for one, have no desire to have to wade through politically motivated hot takes that may or may not have any basis in reality and only exist to stir things up, nor deal with users who complain to us mods about it. If it keeps happening, we'll close this, so let's stay civil.
RE: SoCal Fires - tcufrog - 01-10-2025
My son, his wife, and their 3-week old baby girl live in Santa Monica near Wilshire & low-20s streets. They got out of SM on Wednesday and drove to in-laws in Claremont, concerned about the effects of smoke and poor air quality on their baby. Of course, since going to Claremont, the air quality there has gone from green to red. They may be joining us shortly in the desert. My wife and I were in LA for business, starting on Monday. We were staying in Calabasas, where power went out in our area on Tuesday afternoon and had not returned by Thursday morning when we drove back to the desert. On the unexpected bright side, traffic on the LA freeways was about 10% of normal. We had a business dinner Wednesday night at a Michelin-starred restaurant in Santa Monica, where there were maybe 3 occupied tables (but the lights were on, unlike many places in SM & LA). Our friends in Santa Monica (particularly those living north of Montana) have all evacuated and fortunately none of their homes have (as yet) gone up in smoke. Truly eerie in LA this week.
RE: SoCal Fires - dabigv13 - 01-10-2025
I haven't seen any visible fire in the hills since the first night, smoke much less today compared to yesterday. Air quality much improved as well, where I am now, along with Santa Monica, is in the yellow range. Further east its orange and red, still getting smoke from the Eaton fire.
I think winds dying down and humidity coming up has made a big difference. Santa Ana winds forecast again next week though not super strong ones like earlier this week.
Airnow has been my go to resource for air quality.
https://gispub.epa.gov/airnow/?showgreencontours=false
RE: SoCal Fires - 82lsju - 01-10-2025
(01-10-2025, 10:30 AM)dabigv13 Wrote: I haven't seen any visible fire in the hills since the first night, smoke much less today compared to yesterday. Air quality much improved as well, where I am now, along with Santa Monica, is in the yellow range. Further east its orange and red, still getting smoke from the Eaton fire.
I think winds dying down and humidity coming up has made a big difference. Santa Ana winds forecast again next week though not super strong ones like earlier this week.
Airnow has been my go to resource for air quality.
https://gispub.epa.gov/airnow/?showgreencontours=false
another source for air quality is Purple Air which is based on sensors people buy and use at their home s(or other locations), it is pretty real time and very localized
https://map.purpleair.com/air-quality-standards-us-epa-aqi?opt=%2F1%2Flp%2Fa10%2Fp604800%2FcC0#1/25/-30
RE: SoCal Fires - BostonCard - 01-10-2025
(01-10-2025, 08:34 AM)2006alum Wrote:(01-10-2025, 08:08 AM)SkiBum80 Wrote: Regarding the point that political discussions may be part of this thread,
I note there has been a long standing thread on Ukraine that is largely political discussion in nature.
And that has been OK because it is labeled as Outside Topic.
So our cardboard readers/posters are aware beforehand that politics may be part of the discussion and can choose to participate or not.
As this thread is also labeled Outside Topic I have no complaint nor surprise that discussion might include politically related thoughts.
The Ukraine thread is a different beast and a special exception because it is a necessarily political issue. Many of us have friends and family directed affected by these fires, and we're here to share information, lend support, and emote. I, for one, have no desire to have to wade through politically motivated hot takes that may or may not have any basis in reality and only exist to stir things up, nor deal with users who complain to us mods about it. If it keeps happening, we'll close this, so let's stay civil.
Early on in the Ukraine thread, someone (maybe the OP) acknowledged that the thread could get political and said something to the effect of "feel free to lock the thread", and after some deliberation, the mods agreed to keep it open despite the risk, just given the global implications. There have been periodic discussions about closing it since then, especially when a political/controversial post comes up. At the end of the day, I think there are a couple of very high value posters on that thread (I'm thinking specifically of Goose, but some of the other regulars on that thread) that provide expertise that would be hard to find elsewhere. I've looked, and where I've seen forums with similar depth, they are nowhere near as accessible.
My own feeling is that as long as the overall thread's content value exceeds the risk of it descending into political chaos, it is worth keeping up. Some political content must necessarily be tolerated there to achieve that, but I acknowledge that there is a possibility that things will worsen.
In this thread, it is entirely possible to provide support for the people affected and information about the fires themselves without devolving into finger-pointing.
BC
RE: SoCal Fires - TrumpCard - 01-10-2025
In So Cal, we've had some erroneous alerts sent citywide. The alerts appear to be sent through the same system used for amber and silver alerts. I don't have any data on the effectiveness of these alerts in getting people to undertake any action, but my gut tells me that people have grown inured to these alerts and may have silenced them completely because the noise to signal ratio is too high. I'm curios whether those who live outside the So Cal area have similar or different experiences with the alerts system on their phones. I'd be especially interested in hearing from anyone who lives in a region where the alert system is viewed positively. I also wonder whether there's a way to run tests of the alert system so their are fewer errors during times of crisis. Sort of like the tests of the emergency broadcast system that appeared on television in the old days when I watched TV. Those tests were mildly annoying, but if they were helpful in getting the system working properly (a fact to which I cannot attest), then they were worth it, and something similar might be appropriate for cell phone alerts.
RE: SoCal Fires - GK3 - 01-10-2025
(01-10-2025, 11:10 AM)BostonCard Wrote:(01-10-2025, 08:34 AM)2006alum Wrote:(01-10-2025, 08:08 AM)SkiBum80 Wrote: Regarding the point that political discussions may be part of this thread,
I note there has been a long standing thread on Ukraine that is largely political discussion in nature.
And that has been OK because it is labeled as Outside Topic.
So our cardboard readers/posters are aware beforehand that politics may be part of the discussion and can choose to participate or not.
As this thread is also labeled Outside Topic I have no complaint nor surprise that discussion might include politically related thoughts.
The Ukraine thread is a different beast and a special exception because it is a necessarily political issue. Many of us have friends and family directed affected by these fires, and we're here to share information, lend support, and emote. I, for one, have no desire to have to wade through politically motivated hot takes that may or may not have any basis in reality and only exist to stir things up, nor deal with users who complain to us mods about it. If it keeps happening, we'll close this, so let's stay civil.
Early on in the Ukraine thread, someone (maybe the OP) acknowledged that the thread could get political and said something to the effect of "feel free to lock the thread", and after some deliberation, the mods agreed to keep it open despite the risk, just given the global implications. There have been periodic discussions about closing it since then, especially when a political/controversial post comes up. At the end of the day, I think there are a couple of very high value posters on that thread (I'm thinking specifically of Goose, but some of the other regulars on that thread) that provide expertise that would be hard to find elsewhere. I've looked, and where I've seen forums with similar depth, they are nowhere near as accessible.
My own feeling is that as long as the overall thread's content value exceeds the risk of it descending into political chaos, it is worth keeping up. Some political content must necessarily be tolerated there to achieve that, but I acknowledge that there is a possibility that things will worsen.
In this thread, it is entirely possible to provide support for the people affected and information about the fires themselves without devolving into finger-pointing.
BC
Plus 1, BC I would only add that I hope when this disasters is finally over, some intelligent, non political people along with people who expertise lies in this area, get together and decide what changes need to be made and then change them. We cannot change the law of physics sad to say. A fire driven by very strong winds in an environment which is already extremely dry is not going to be changed by man alone.-
RE: SoCal Fires - fullmetal - 01-10-2025
I think the most succinct analysis I've seen is that public firefighting infrastructure is designed to put out isolated house fires, not combat an extreme natural disaster sweeping into a highly populated suburb.
RE: SoCal Fires - M T - 01-10-2025
I am not a mod (IANAM) nor have I ever had access to their discussions. My opinion would be that discussions about actions and their consequences are reasonable unless they devolve into contentious debates. So, if I say that banning flavored tobacco products reduces underage tobacco use, that seems fine to me (IANAM), until someone argues vehemently that this restricts one's freedom to use those products.
I appreciated ADPinWDC's post with the descriptions of similar situations some 30 years ago (1993 Kinneloa Fire, 5500 acres, 196 structures) around Altadena.
Likewise, I had forgotten the details of the 2018 Woolsey Fire that burned the same general area as the Palisades fire, burning 97,000 acres, destroying 1643 structures.
(01-10-2025, 11:41 AM)TrumpCard Wrote: . I'm curios whether those who live outside the So Cal area have similar or different experiences with the alerts system on their phones. I'd be especially interested in hearing from anyone who lives in a region where the alert system is viewed positively. I also wonder whether there's a way to run tests of the alert system so their are fewer errors during times of crisis. Sort of like the tests of the emergency broadcast system that appeared on television in the old days when I watched TV. Those tests were mildly annoying, but if they were helpful in getting the system working properly (a fact to which I cannot attest), then they were worth it, and something similar might be appropriate for cell phone alerts.
Dear Curios (ah, AI and spelling correctors....), my impression of the alerts in the general Stanford area:
We don't get many Amber/Silver alerts. Less than 10 a year (6-ish?). I haven't turned them off, but the initial sound is very jarring, and is, IMO, a hazard itself. If I'm going to be out, I might look at them, but what's the likelihood that any of us that look at it might spot that white Honda with license XYZ12345? It seems almost like a Prop 65 warning (ubiquitous in Calif. but of no practical use).
In the last couple of years, we're now getting earthquake/tsunami warnings. For the recent tsunami warning, I was in the Sierras so it seemed a waste of time. I believe I remember the initial test of the earthquake warning system was a fiasco, followed soon by a warning that went to too many. Personally, I don't mind those flubs.
Coincidentally, at my work, they sent out such a warning yesterday to all staff (for me, about 6 devices/sources) over a non-essential event (an entry gate failure). Annoying.
We all remember the TV & Radio interruptions "BEEEEP BEEEP BEEEP This is a test of the Emergency Broadcast System. This is only a test. If this had been a real emergency..."
RE: SoCal Fires - GK3 - 01-10-2025
(01-10-2025, 01:05 PM)fullmetal Wrote: I think the most succinct analysis I've seen is that public firefighting infrastructure is designed to put out isolated house fires, not combat an extreme natural disaster sweeping into a highly populated suburb.I think I saw the same article. Along similar lines, I saw another that pointed out that the further a hydrant is from the water source the smaller the pipe feeding it has to be to maintain a given pressure. This means that hydrants near the end of the line had less volume of water and the more hydrants turned on the less water. LADWP also said that when the weather forecasts came out they filled all storage facilities they had in and near the affected areas but it did little good. Unfortunately, the winds and heat far exceeded any that were planned for long ago.
RE: SoCal Fires - M T - 01-10-2025
(01-10-2025, 01:05 PM)fullmetal Wrote: I think the most succinct analysis I've seen is that public firefighting infrastructure is designed to put out isolated house fires, not combat an extreme natural disaster sweeping into a highly populated suburb.
I suspect you are thinking of municipal fire companies. CAL FIRE and similar organizations have a different mission. But Mother Nature can overwhelm any organization or thwart any contingency plan.
In the reporting, I heard that there were more firefighting personnel available that there were engines(etc) to utilize them. (I think that was in regard to the Palisades fire.) I also heard that four (?) 1M gallon tanks were filled before the fires but the water usage by all the fire crews was greater than the pipeline or pump capacity to refill them. (I think that was in a news conference regarding the Eaton Fire.) I heard indirectly that the pumping capacity was reduced due to power failures (due to fires). I certainly can understand that the outflow rate of the tanks exceeds the inflow rate. It is unfortunate or inadequate planning if the power distribution system to the pumps was not designed for the widespread fires.
RE: SoCal Fires - SkiBum80 - 01-10-2025
I recall the h.uge Thomas fire of Ventura and Santa Barbara counties from Dec 2017.
Over 1000 structures destroyed, which is already far exceeded by the LA fires.
One of the key failures that came out in post-fire analysis is related to how in Ventura there are many foothills homes that are fed by gravity water feed from storage tanks located at the top of or some height above the development. These tanks are filled by pumps from down below..
Before the fire hit, many, if not most, of these tanks were not full, as they don't normally need to be so. They can operate for normal use on a level below full as they rely on inservice pumps to pump up water as needed.
When the fire hit, and the fire crews were trying to use hydrants in the development, fed by the same storage tanks, the hydrants ran dry quickly.
As at the same time, SCE was either losing power to, or shutting off power to, the areas where the pumps were located.
I think SCE moved in some portable generators to pump water but these were mostly after the fact and too late for the fire had already blown through.
This was a big oversight and failure of preparation.
In some developments, depending on their layout and how the fire hit, many more homes might have been saved if the fire crews had a chance to use more water that could have been pre-pumped to fill the high level tanks before the fire hit and the power was lost. And to have had more portable generators in place to continue pumping up water once the power went out.
I don't know for sure this will be found a similar failure for this fire in LA, but I am early guessing it may be quite possible.
RE: SoCal Fires - BostonCard - 01-10-2025
I was thinking of the tsunami warning as well. The warning wound up being cancelled, so in some ways a false alarm, but it was effective in that I got me to monitor the situation and do a bit of a calculation of how much risk I was going to be. Had I been in, say, Half Moon Bay, I probably would have looked to pack stuff up.
BC
RE: SoCal Fires - jacket3ree - 01-10-2025
(01-10-2025, 01:05 PM)fullmetal Wrote: I think the most succinct analysis I've seen is that public firefighting infrastructure is designed to put out isolated house fires, not combat an extreme natural disaster sweeping into a highly populated suburb.
This is exactly right. I've designed municipal water systems for nearly 40 years and we do not design them with massive wildfires in mind. Those are natural disaster, Force Majure, Act of God scenarios (even if god is an electric company) and no one can afford water systems capable of fighting that. I've done systems across California, on Maui, and Santa Rose after the Coffee Fire that melted underground distribution piping.
Community, mutual, and municipal water systems are organized into pressure zones. Hilly terrain including the most devastated locations in LA will need many pressure zones. Potable water for domestic consumption, irrigation, fire fighting, and emergencies is fed into each pressure zone by gravity or pumping and stored within that zone (tanks) or fed through pressure regulators to a lower zone or by booster pumps into a higher zone. Each zone is supplied its maximum day demand from a wholesale source like SFPUC or Valley Water or groundwater. Demand varies across the day and those spikes in demand (peak hour) must come from water stored within the pressure zone or stored water brought into the pressure zone from another pressure zone.
Fire flow demands are on top of that peak hour demand. We design the pumping, storage, and distribution systems (pipes and hydrants) to deliver fire flows during a peak hour so that we do not have an unacceptable pressure loss (no less than 20 psi residual during a fire anywhere in the system) that can lead to back siphoning contaminants into the system and leading to health problems. The working assumption is one fire at a time within the pressure zone. If the zone is entirely residential, that's a single house. A code fire demand might be 1,500 gallons per minute (gpm) for two hours. That equates to 180,000 gallons that need to be stored on top of storage for peak hour demand and other emergencies. Plus you never want to completely drain a tank because they leads to lower residual pressure in the system. If the pressure zone is mixed use with commercial and industrial development, the fire demand might be 4,000 gpm for four hours or 960,000 gallons of storage for fire. I think the UFC and ISO charts top out at 8,000 gpm for 4 hours and there are allowances for sprinklered buildings, etc.
I have done lots and lots of 200,000 gallon tanks and 2 million gallon tanks. The largest ever for me was 6 million gallons. Why not just play it safe and build mega tanks everywhere? Cost, impact, and problems with water quality. Usually fires are fought with potable water. The same water we all drink and use daily. With a mega tank and no fires, that water stagnates in the tank and we start having problems with circulation, water quality, and again health. The chlorine residual, if chlorine is used for disinfection, just dissipates over the long time that water sits there waiting for a fire. Occasionally we have designed dual systems for that very reason, but again, expensive.
So, take thousands of homes multiplied by 1,500 gallons per minute and you run out of water pretty quickly. It is no one's fault. Certainly not the Delta smelt's. Wildland fire fighting takes over with tankers, lake water, ocean water, whatever they can do. Unfortunately though, removing fuel in urban areas isn't like the wildland, where swaths of trees can be chain sawed. That was driven home in Santa Rosa when even Highway 101 proved to be an inadequate fire break.
I worked with an attorney today and the subject came up. There will be time for recriminations and responsibility. He showed me a phone picture of his friend in Altadena who had snapped a picture of the transmission lines sparking in the high winds. She (his friend) evacuated and is now famous on the internet for the picture. Her home was spared (for now) by the direction of the wind. This is awful and hopefully we can all help our southern neighbors. Searching for early blame doesn't help, in my opinion.
This came up on something I was watching making dinner. (CNN maybe?) 'How can the hydrants run dry? Incompetence!' I had to turn it off.
RE: SoCal Fires - martyup - 01-10-2025
North Idaho fire departments sent crews and equipment 1300 miles south to assist in fighting the LA basin fires.
https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FNorthIdahoNews%2Fposts%2Fpfbid0nAgL3DnkvZcQNMi2NRvt4P9PECDwtMGSrRqDMXEMrnq36Aj8eFVzQPMQucMge2j3l&show