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RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - ColoradoTree - 02-14-2023

Sorry for the delayed response, all. I got busy with family stuff over the weekend so I couldn't pay overly close attention to the matches, and frankly, after the irritation of the Georgia loss I certainly didn't feel compelled to make this team a priority. 

But Vanderbilt lost all three matches, including 4-3 to Washington of all teams, so calling it a top-ten win is just barely true, and it won't be for much longer. It really shouldn't have been that close. Flattening them might have felt better, but it's just not that great of a win. 

I'm disappointed in the Georgia loss--I think that was a really poor effort by our top two in particular. We should beat Georgia. And we should have beaten Vanderbilt more handily. (The Blokhina and Xu losses sting the worst there. They have no business losing to those players.)

But losing 4-3 to Duke is basically fine. I think Duke is one of the best teams in the country, right up there talent-wise with UNC and Texas. If we're holding our own in a slugfest like that, it shows we've got the talent to go toe to toe with the top teams. Whether we've got the grit and finishing to beat those teams remains to be seen as the season progresses, because it hasn't been true so far. What I didn't like was being down 3-0 and being in four three-setters and needing to take them all. We nearly did, to be clear, but you can't put yourself in those sorts of situations and expect to be successful. 

Starting off the Duke match by dropping doubles (and to be clear, we weren't even competitive in it) is another embarrassment. We can't keep having to get four of six singles wins against elite teams. It's just asking too much. I'm not saying we should be taking all of these doubles points, but any time we play someone pretty good, we lose doubles. Like clockwork. And I don't know what has to change, but something does. 

Had a great weekend: 

* Angelica Blake and that's it. Went 3-0, including stomping Georgia's Mell Reasco, gutting out a three-setter against #21 Emma Jackson of Duke, and a solid straight sets win over Vandy.

Mixed bag: 

* Yepifanova lost to a lesser player against Georgia, and that effectively cost us the match. She was also on the verge of losing in straight sets at #1 against Vandy, but the match was abandoned first. So she only got one win, but it was a terrific one, a tough three-setter over Duke's Cameron Morra, a grad transfer from UNC who is usually somewhere in the top 20 of the rankings. She won't have a better win to her resume before NCAAs. 

* Choy went 2-1, and one was a tough match that she largely controlled against Georgia, but she was the first match off court against Duke and her scoreline in her win over Vandy suggests a far closer match than she should have had. 

* Blokhina went 1-2, and she lost in disappointing fashion against UGA, another match that should have gone the other way and given us a team win. And she had absolutely no business losing that match against Vandy, let alone as routinely as she did. But the one win was a really good one, shaking off a second-set breadstick to fight back and take the third 6-3 over a very experienced player in Duke's Georgia Drummy. 

Disappointing: 

* Ma went 1-2, and her only win was over a lesser player at #2 against Vanderbilt after Lele presumably shook up the lineup. She faded and looked defeated against Georgia's Lea Ma far before she actually was, and she didn't give Duke's Chloe Beck the challenge she should have. She has to be better. And more than that, tougher.

* Xu was 0-2, and while losing 6-4 in the third to Duke's Ellie Coleman isn't a terrible loss, the circumstance (we win the match if she pulls out that third set) makes it more dispiriting. She looked on the verge of beating UGA's Hertel before the match was abandoned, but she got absolutely run off the court by a player she should be able to beat with one hand tied behind her back. Not remotely good enough of an effort. 

Overall, it was certainly a setback for rankings and postseason seeding. That Vanderbilt win looks like it won't be worth a great deal as the season goes on, and while it's not like the losses to Georgia and Duke will be albatrosses around our necks, the primary downside of the weekend is the missed opportunities. If we'd pulled out the win over Duke, I'd be feeling much more optimistic. Or if we'd taken Georgia and gone 2-1 on the weekend. But as it is, we don't have a ton of marquee matches left. You get a road match in Austin against the #1 team in the country. Sure, if we win, that would be great, but my confidence level is lower after this weekend. The Pepperdine match got cancelled, though we weren't looking sharp there either. We have USC and UCLA on the road and Cal and San Diego at home, but all are matches we should win. So, the win won't be a brobdingnagian rankings boost, while a loss will hurt more. 

We may have top 8 talent, but right now, I don't see the makings of a resume that has us playing at home in the super regional.

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - Sakibomb25 - 02-14-2023

(02-14-2023, 01:28 PM)ColoradoTree Wrote:  Sorry for the delayed response, all. I got busy with family stuff over the weekend so I couldn't pay overly close attention to the matches, and frankly, after the irritation of the Georgia loss I certainly didn't feel compelled to make this team a priority. 

But Vanderbilt lost all three matches, including 4-3 to Washington of all teams, so calling it a top-ten win is just barely true, and it won't be for much longer. It really shouldn't have been that close. Flattening them might have felt better, but it's just not that great of a win. 

I'm disappointed in the Georgia loss--I think that was a really poor effort by our top two in particular. We should beat Georgia. And we should have beaten Vanderbilt more handily. (The Blokhina and Xu losses sting the worst there. They have no business losing to those players.)

But losing 4-3 to Duke is basically fine. I think Duke is one of the best teams in the country, right up there talent-wise with UNC and Texas. If we're holding our own in a slugfest like that, it shows we've got the talent to go toe to toe with the top teams. Whether we've got the grit and finishing to beat those teams remains to be seen as the season progresses, because it hasn't been true so far. What I didn't like was being down 3-0 and being in four three-setters and needing to take them all. We nearly did, to be clear, but you can't put yourself in those sorts of situations and expect to be successful. 

Starting off the Duke match by dropping doubles (and to be clear, we weren't even competitive in it) is another embarrassment. We can't keep having to get four of six singles wins against elite teams. It's just asking too much. I'm not saying we should be taking all of these doubles points, but any time we play someone pretty good, we lose doubles. Like clockwork. And I don't know what has to change, but something does. 

Had a great weekend: 

* Angelica Blake and that's it. Went 3-0, including stomping Georgia's Mell Reasco, gutting out a three-setter against #21 Emma Jackson of Duke, and a solid straight sets win over Vandy.

Mixed bag: 

* Yepifanova lost to a lesser player against Georgia, and that effectively cost us the match. She was also on the verge of losing in straight sets at #1 against Vandy, but the match was abandoned first. So she only got one win, but it was a terrific one, a tough three-setter over Duke's Cameron Morra, a grad transfer from UNC who is usually somewhere in the top 20 of the rankings. She won't have a better win to her resume before NCAAs. 

* Choy went 2-1, and one was a tough match that she largely controlled against Georgia, but she was the first match off court against Duke and her scoreline in her win over Vandy suggests a far closer match than she should have had. 

* Blokhina went 1-2, and she lost in disappointing fashion against UGA, another match that should have gone the other way and given us a team win. And she had absolutely no business losing that match against Vandy, let alone as routinely as she did. But the one win was a really good one, shaking off a second-set breadstick to fight back and take the third 6-3 over a very experienced player in Duke's Georgia Drummy. 

Disappointing: 

* Ma went 1-2, and her only win was over a lesser player at #2 against Vanderbilt after Lele presumably shook up the lineup. She faded and looked defeated against Georgia's Lea Ma far before she actually was, and she didn't give Duke's Chloe Beck the challenge she should have. She has to be better. And more than that, tougher.

* Xu was 0-2, and while losing 6-4 in the third to Duke's Ellie Coleman isn't a terrible loss, the circumstance (we win the match if she pulls out that third set) makes it more dispiriting. She looked on the verge of beating UGA's Hertel before the match was abandoned, but she got absolutely run off the court by a player she should be able to beat with one hand tied behind her back. Not remotely good enough of an effort. 

Overall, it was certainly a setback for rankings and postseason seeding. That Vanderbilt win looks like it won't be worth a great deal as the season goes on, and while it's not like the losses to Georgia and Duke will be albatrosses around our necks, the primary downside of the weekend is the missed opportunities. If we'd pulled out the win over Duke, I'd be feeling much more optimistic. Or if we'd taken Georgia and gone 2-1 on the weekend. But as it is, we don't have a ton of marquee matches left. You get a road match in Austin against the #1 team in the country. Sure, if we win, that would be great, but my confidence level is lower after this weekend. The Pepperdine match got cancelled, though we weren't looking sharp there either. We have USC and UCLA on the road and Cal and San Diego at home, but all are matches we should win. So, the win won't be a of immense proportions rankings boost, while a loss will hurt more. 

We may have top 8 talent, but right now, I don't see the makings of a resume that has us playing at home in the super regional.

Do you think Ma might be hitting a wall of sorts? Was surprised at her play this weekend, especially how she did in the fall. I wonder if something is going on outside of the court that affected her play that we just don't know about (hopefully not!).

And our doubles... why is it so bad? I don't recall Stanford being so terrible at doubles until recently. What's changed? It can't be the players... can it?

Also... does the fact that it was indoors really make a difference? I am still hoping that it does and we'll be more successfull outdoors.

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - TheFarm07 - 02-15-2023

Thanks ColoradoTree for your insightful analysis and recap.

I echo the concerns and questions about our lineup heading into the thick of the season. Why do you think we've struggled in doubles? Getting that doubles point would obviously alleviate some of that pressure heading into singles play, especially against top-flight teams with deep lineups...winning three of six matches is easier than four of six.

It sounds like our singles performances haven't been up to what we've expected. I am not sure what your title expectations were coming into the season, but with our recent struggles, that has taken a dip.

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - ColoradoTree - 02-16-2023

I figured coming into the season that with our talent, we were a top-5-to-top-10-ish team with a real chance to pull off a title. I figured Texas, UNC, Duke, Texas A&M, NC State, and maybe Oklahoma would be in that top tier with us. Probably Pepperdine, too. 

So, in that vein, losing 4-3 to Duke isn't terrible. They're a fellow top tier team. Losing to Georgia isn't that bad, either--we were tied with them in the preseason rankings. And now we've taken these losses now, and we'll hopefully learn from them going forward. 

Early season losses do not equate to losses in May. In 2019, when we last won a national championship, we lost 4-3 to Georgia at National Indoors. We beat them 4-0 for the national championship in May. The year before, we lost 7-0(!) to Vanderbilt in February, and then beat them 4-3 for the national championship in May. So, all is not lost. This team gets better over time. 

As to why we're relatively bad in doubles, I can't answer that because I don't know how the program practices. But the proof of the pudding is in the tasting, and clearly it's not something we emphasize sufficiently. 

And it's not just this year or the past few years. It's been the past several where we've put ourselves in a hole. In that 2018 title run, we lost the doubles point in 3 of the last 4 matches at NCAAs. In 2016, when we won the title, we lost the doubles point in 4 of the last 5 matches at NCAAs. Before that era, when we had Gibbs, Ahn, the Burdettes, etc., we were generally a very good doubles team. 

I don't think Ma's hit a wall--she remains our unquestioned best player. Every player goes through rough patches, and she had them last year, too. But she also found her way into the NCAA singles final as a freshman. This weekend was disappointing because of the missed opportunities, but I still believe this team has the talent to make a run at a title, and we'll see the kind of grit and finishing they develop over the next few months. 

Oh, and we play St. Mary's in a couple days, which could be a palate cleanser before we head to Austin for a matchup with Texas a week later.

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - Spiny_Norman - 02-16-2023

(02-16-2023, 09:07 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote:  The year before, we lost 7-0(!) to Vanderbilt in February, and then beat them 4-3 for the national championship in May. So, all is not lost. This team gets better over time. 

If I recall, Stanford had injuries in February, 2018 when they played Vandy. Lord, I believe. The season turned around when she returned to the lineup.