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RE: 2022 Giants thread - Phogge - 04-04-2022
DISH and NBC Sports Bay Area severed ties last year. I found that I enjoyed baseball on the radio better. You make the pictures in your head. My only problem is that Miller is too caught up in exit velocity and other arithmetic. Note: No cable available on my mountain.
Has Comcast met the same fate?
RE: 2022 Giants thread - OutsiderFan - 04-04-2022
Do any of you put stock in the projection systems all the geeks use to predict the baseball season?
I get the idea of comparing players to other players with similar profiles who have been tracked previously, to arrive at a performance projection. But you can never know who has worked to improve what they do or maybe slacked off in the offseason. And most importantly, they can't factor in the the situations players are put in to perform, based on matchups.
I'm more inclined to believe the Giants baseball operation knows how to get performance out of the players they put on the field, than I am in the projections of the players who will ultimately be asked to perform. I've seen two consecutive years of the Giants performing better than expected, so why would I all of a sudden believe the projections?
lex24 - lex24 - 04-04-2022
(04-04-2022, 11:01 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Do any of you put stock in the projection systems all the geeks use to predict the baseball season?
I get the idea of comparing players to other players with similar profiles who have been tracked previously, to arrive at a performance projection. But you can never know who has worked to improve what they do or maybe slacked off in the offseason. And most importantly, they can't factor in the the situations players are put in to perform, based on matchups.
I'm more inclined to believe the Giants baseball operation knows how to get performance out of the players they put on the field, than I am in the projections of the players who will ultimately be asked to perform. I've seen two consecutive years of the Giants performing better than expected, so why would I all of a sudden believe the projections?
I do not put much stock in those projections. My pessimism is based on what I see as a weak lineup. Particularly against lefties. I think their pitching, if it stays healthy, will be very good. But the hitting…. I also think the Pads will be much better.
I keep thinking 2011.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - BostonCard - 04-04-2022
All models are wrong. Some models are useful.
BC
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Giants - 04-04-2022
The Giants are definitely on Comcast 720. Heck, the team owns 30% of NBC Comcast Bay Area. Just like last year, Kruk and Kuip will not travel with the team. They will do the home games in person and a select number of roadies from the SF studio.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - lex24 - 04-04-2022
(04-04-2022, 03:31 PM)Giants Wrote: The Giants are definitely on Comcast 720. Heck, the team owns 30% of NBC Comcast Bay Area. Just like last year, Kruk and Kuip will not travel with the team. They will do the home games in person and a select number of roadies from the SF studio.
Very glad to read Kuiper is coming back, given all he’s gone through.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Mick - 04-04-2022
I wonder how good the Giants will actually be. Bleacher Report ranks their 2022 offense at #16 in MLB. Last year, SFG had #4 overall OPS and sixth in run scored. They lost Posey (big loss) and Bryant. Bryant had a .788 OPS, which was behind four starters and close to Yastrzemski and Duggar. They lost Dickerson (bad year), they get La Stella back, and oh yeah -- they get Joey Bart, currently leading the Giants in spring training RBIs with 7 and HRs with 3, and an OPS of 1.235. Casali and Yastrzemski are removed from last year's early season hand injuries, they got rid of low man Donovan Solano and his .748 OPS. They should have a full season of Wade and Estrada.
And after a slow-ish start in spring training, the Giants are currently #2 in MLB in OPS at .893, #8 in OPS at .345 and BA at .276. They're 4th in HRs, 2ndd in triples and 4th in doubles. Down side? 3rd most strikeouts, 20th most walks. #8 in runs scored, but four teams ahead of them have played more games, and the Giants are averaging 10 runs per game over the last six games.
BTW, the Giants overall line reads like a really good hitter's year: 555 ABs, 153 hits, 37 doubles, 6 triples, 34 HRs, 99 runs scored, 93 RBIs, 177 strikeouts, 52 walks.
They're 20th in team ERA and 19th in WHIP. They've won 5 straight, and are now 8-7, FWLIW.
Today they beat the A's, 5-3 at HoHoKam. Slater, Belt and Bart struck out twice each. Dubon doubled, Crawford and Estrada homered. Slater had his second error of the spring. DeSclafani struck out eight in 4 3/2 innings, six looking. Bart is framing the ball really well. Brebbia, Long, Leone and Desclafani gave up no rus. All three earned runs from Leone who saw four batters.
I think they'll be awesome.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - cardcrimson - 04-04-2022
(04-04-2022, 06:09 PM)Mick Wrote: I wonder how good the Giants will actually be. Bleacher Report ranks their 2022 offense at #16 in MLB. Last year, SFG had #4 overall OPS and sixth in run scored. They lost Posey (big loss) and Bryant. Bryant had a .788 OPS, which was behind four starters and close to Yastrzemski and Duggar. They lost Dickerson (bad year), they get La Stella back, and oh yeah -- they get Joey Bart, currently leading the Giants in spring training RBIs with 7 and HRs with 3, and an OPS of 1.235. Casali and Yastrzemski are removed from last year's early season hand injuries, they got rid of low man Donovan Solano and his .748 OPS. They should have a full season of Wade and Estrada.
And after a slow-ish start in spring training, the Giants are currently #2 in MLB in OPS at .893, #8 in OPS at .345 and BA at .276. They're 4th in HRs, 2ndd in triples and 4th in doubles. Down side? 3rd most strikeouts, 20th most walks. #8 in runs scored, but four teams ahead of them have played more games, and the Giants are averaging 10 runs per game over the last six games.
BTW, the Giants overall line reads like a really good hitter's year: 555 ABs, 153 hits, 37 doubles, 6 triples, 34 HRs, 99 runs scored, 93 RBIs, 177 strikeouts, 52 walks.
They're 20th in team ERA and 19th in WHIP. They've won 5 straight, and are now 8-7, FWLIW.
Today they beat the A's, 5-3 at HoHoKam. Slater, Belt and Bart struck out twice each. Dubon doubled, Crawford and Estrada homered. Slater had his second error of the spring. DeSclafani struck out eight in 4 3/2 innings, six looking. Bart is framing the ball really well. Brebbia, Long, Leone and Desclafani gave up no rus. All three earned runs from Leone who saw four batters.
I think they'll be awesome.
So Mick, what's your number of wins?
RE: 2022 Giants thread - lex24 - 04-04-2022
(04-04-2022, 06:24 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:(04-04-2022, 06:09 PM)Mick Wrote: I wonder how good the Giants will actually be. Bleacher Report ranks their 2022 offense at #16 in MLB. Last year, SFG had #4 overall OPS and sixth in run scored. They lost Posey (big loss) and Bryant. Bryant had a .788 OPS, which was behind four starters and close to Yastrzemski and Duggar. They lost Dickerson (bad year), they get La Stella back, and oh yeah -- they get Joey Bart, currently leading the Giants in spring training RBIs with 7 and HRs with 3, and an OPS of 1.235. Casali and Yastrzemski are removed from last year's early season hand injuries, they got rid of low man Donovan Solano and his .748 OPS. They should have a full season of Wade and Estrada.
And after a slow-ish start in spring training, the Giants are currently #2 in MLB in OPS at .893, #8 in OPS at .345 and BA at .276. They're 4th in HRs, 2ndd in triples and 4th in doubles. Down side? 3rd most strikeouts, 20th most walks. #8 in runs scored, but four teams ahead of them have played more games, and the Giants are averaging 10 runs per game over the last six games.
BTW, the Giants overall line reads like a really good hitter's year: 555 ABs, 153 hits, 37 doubles, 6 triples, 34 HRs, 99 runs scored, 93 RBIs, 177 strikeouts, 52 walks.
They're 20th in team ERA and 19th in WHIP. They've won 5 straight, and are now 8-7, FWLIW.
Today they beat the A's, 5-3 at HoHoKam. Slater, Belt and Bart struck out twice each. Dubon doubled, Crawford and Estrada homered. Slater had his second error of the spring. DeSclafani struck out eight in 4 3/2 innings, six looking. Bart is framing the ball really well. Brebbia, Long, Leone and Desclafani gave up no rus. All three earned runs from Leone who saw four batters.
I think they'll be awesome.
So Mick, what's your number of wins?
Spring Training numbers are completely meaningless. Giants are seriously lacking vs lefties with Longo out. They were lacking before. A little better vs righties but not much. Giant fans gloss over the fact that the mainstays of the offense last year were Posey, Crawford, Belt, Longo pre injury and Bryant post trade. I’d add Ruf to that list.
You won’t find a bigger Crawford fan than I. But he’s not going to approach his 21 numbers. Belt is their best offensive player. When healthy. Which is about 100 games a year. Yaz tanked against lefties last year. Can he get back to ‘21 form. Is Wade the hitter we saw in June/ July? Or August/ Sept? Can Slater stay quasi healthy. Bart. Who knows. Duggar showed flashes last year. But he’s been poor offensively most of his career. Estrada - small sample size looked good last year. But how will he do with 400 or more PA’s. They are putting a lot on him. Pederson - has he eaten his way out of effectiveness.
You lose Posey and Bryant and you think they’d find SOMEONE to fill the void. They didn’t.
So, if all goes right, Giants can have a decent offense. If not, it will be bottom tier,
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Phogge - 04-04-2022
OK Lex, we know you’re pissed. Don’t expect Farhan to change.
Now please sit back and enjoy the season. It’s only a game not a war.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Giants - 04-04-2022
My only request of the front office is to field a team that is competitive through the entire season. If September games are meaningful, they have done their job.
Obviously, all fans hope their team can win it all but only one team can accomplish that feat. Does that mean the other 29 teams are failures? IMO, absolutely not. Heck, last year’s September action was the most exciting since the 60’s. Just because the team ran out of gas in October doesn’t negate what transpired beforehand. Baseball is truly about the journey. Enjoy the ride…..
RE: 2022 Giants thread - cardcrimson - 04-04-2022
(04-04-2022, 09:31 PM)Giants Wrote: My only request of the front office is to field a team that is competitive through the entire season. If September games are meaningful, they have done their job.
Obviously, all fans hope their team can win it all but only one team can accomplish that feat. Does that mean the other 29 teams are failures? IMO, absolutely not. Heck, last year’s September action was the most exciting since the 60’s. Just because the team ran out of gas in October doesn’t negate what transpired beforehand. Baseball is truly about the journey. Enjoy the ride…..
Ran out of gas? I think missing Belt was a big deal. Then there was that one BS call at the end. . . .
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Mick - 04-04-2022
PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) refers to Baseball Prospectus' proprietary predictive model. Last year at this time, it projected San Francisco to win 75 games, and gave the Giants a 0% chance to win the division. And so...
* Giants played .600 or better every month of the season.
* Won more games than any other team that finished under .500 the prior season.
* Best OPS in National League, broke record for pinch hit home runs and set new franchise record with 241 overall home runs.
* On the pitching side, none of SF's three championships had a starting rotation with an ERA over 4.00. But last year's starters -- at 3.44 ERA -- had a better combined ERA than any of the WSC years.
This year, PECOTA has learned its lesson and predicts that the Giants will win...78 games. I don't recall my prediction last season, but I'll say 93 games this season.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Phogge - 04-04-2022
Didn’t a guy named Pecota just desert the sinking ship that is Stanford football?
RE: 2022 Giants thread - skip75 - 04-04-2022
(04-04-2022, 10:11 PM)Mick Wrote: PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) refers to Baseball Prospectus' proprietary predictive model.
Named by Nate Silver for Bill Pecota (Peterson HS in Sunnyvale & DeAnza CC), supposedly because he was the most average player possible in his MLB career with the Royals, Mets, & Braves.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - lex24 - 04-05-2022
(04-04-2022, 09:31 PM)Giants Wrote: My only request of the front office is to field a team that is competitive through the entire season. If September games are meaningful, they have done their job.
Obviously, all fans hope their team can win it all but only one team can accomplish that feat. Does that mean the other 29 teams are failures? IMO, absolutely not. Heck, last year’s September action was the most exciting since the 60’s. Just because the team ran out of gas in October doesn’t negate what transpired beforehand. Baseball is truly about the journey. Enjoy the ride…..
That my desire for the team for any season. My desire of the ownership (I separate that from FO) is that they are financially committed all in to winning. The best owner in Bay Area pro sports history was Eddie D. He took a couple years. Then he brought in great minds to run the team and gave them almost unlimited funds to work with.
Giants ownership group now has Greg Johnson at the helm. I have not seen that kind of commitment from him.
If you want to see what the combo of brains and money do, look at the Dodgers. McCourt sold to the Guggenheim Trust in ‘12. LA immediately went from a mid pack payroll to No 1. In Fall of ‘14 they hired Friedman from Tampa Bay and Zaidi from Oakland. Thus combining two bright minds that had succeeded with teams with almost no payroll. Given what they had to work with in LA - well you’ve seen the results.
Seager, Marte, Semien, Story, Suzuki. Any would have helped significantly. They signed for varied amounts over varied years. Signing one would in no way, shape or form had any negative impact in say ‘24 or ‘25 when the big prospects MAY (its always may with prospects) be ready. And yes, the back end of big deals may not pay dividends. Do you think it was foolish of the Dodgers to sign Freeman? Because the front ends make up for that. And you never know about the back ends - Posey, Crawford and Belt being good examples.
I don’t believe for a second that Zaidi is unwilling to sign big ticket FAs because it someone hurts his master plan. I believe they got outbid. Over and over again. Pure and simple. That tells me Johnson and Co aren’t “all-in”. And that’s a big concern.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - DC 86 - 04-05-2022
(04-04-2022, 08:01 PM)lex24 Wrote: Spring Training numbers are completely meaningless.
Almost entirely meaningless; historically there is a tiny correlation. But to your point, for reference, the Giants went 11-12 in spring training last year and their best hitter was Austin Slater, who hit a Barry Bonds-like .360/.448/.880 (1.328 ops) while their worst hitters (among players who ended up on the team during the regular season, and setting aside Brandon Belt who only batted six times, with one hit) were LaMonte Wade (.182/.315/.318, .633 ops) and Darin Ruf (.190/.327/.310). By the way, Joey Bart led the team in spring training batting average last year at .423
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Mick - 04-05-2022
(04-05-2022, 10:16 AM)DC 86 Wrote:(04-04-2022, 08:01 PM)lex24 Wrote: Spring Training numbers are completely meaningless.
Almost entirely meaningless; historically there is a tiny correlation.
One of my favorite trivia questions had to do with the only two NFL teams that went 0-16, the 2017 Cleveland Browns and the 2008 Detroit Lions. What else did they have in common? Both were undefeated 4-0 in preseason.
(04-05-2022, 07:13 AM)lex24 Wrote:(04-04-2022, 09:31 PM)Giants Wrote: My only request of the front office is to field a team that is competitive through the entire season. If September games are meaningful, they have done their job.That my desire for the team for any season. My desire of the ownership (I separate that from FO) is that they are financially committed all in to winning. The best owner in Bay Area pro sports history was Eddie D. He took a couple years. Then he brought in great minds to run the team and gave them almost unlimited funds to work with.
Eddie D. had the luxury of operating without a salary cap all through the Montana years. I think the salary cap was introduced the year Steve Young was made the starter. As I recall, John McVay and Carmine Policy worked the salary cap pretty well during the Young years.
(04-05-2022, 07:13 AM)lex24 Wrote: I don’t believe for a second that Zaidi is unwilling to sign big ticket FAs because it someone hurts his master plan. I believe they got outbid. Over and over again. Pure and simple. That tells me Johnson and Co aren’t “all-in”. And that’s a big concern.
I largely agree. Bryce Harper has done very well with the Phillies; in his third year, he led the league in doubles, slugging percentage and OPS. And when SFG was bidding for his services, I was really hoping he wouldn't sign with us. His career OPS at Philadelphia vs. San Francisco is .999 vs .669. In fact, Harper doesn't do great on the West Coast, three of his worst five ballparks are SF, LA and Oakland.
And we went after Giancarlo Stanton the year after he hit 59 HRs. In the four years since, he's hit 80 HRs. Definitely not bad, but worth the $29 million annually? Prior to his big contract, Stanton was on the all star team four of the prior six years. Hasn't been on it as a Yankee. I'd rather have him than Connor Joe (who's #5 in MLB batting avg right now), but too much money.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - OutsiderFan - 04-05-2022
I'm not going to be an apologist for the Giants not spending more on their roster, but will play a little devil's advocate.
The Giants have the oldest position player group in MLB. The Giants also have a lot of good prospects in the pipeline. Now let's look at one position, Right Field.
Farhan Zaidi believes Darrin Ruf will provide as much production this year as anybody he could have signed as a Free Agent. Let's say they signed Kris Bryant or Nick Castellanos (who went to Philly and was guy I had my eye on) to play that spot. They would have been paying $25M for a few years to them. That would prevent the Giants from plugging in say Heliot Ramos in 2023, who will be making less than a $1M, and also getting this productive year from Ruff, and they'd have to pay what, $125M for that pain?
If Ramos stalls out his development in 2022, the Giants can look at a free agent RF next year. But if Ramos rakes, not signing Castellanos will prove the smarter decision.
I'm sensitive to the possibility the Giants are being too frugal, but am not ready to die on that hill just yet.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - lex24 - 04-05-2022
(04-05-2022, 02:07 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I'm not going to be an apologist for the Giants not spending more on their roster, but will play a little devil's advocate.
The Giants have the oldest position player group in MLB. The Giants also have a lot of good prospects in the pipeline. Now let's look at one position, Right Field.
Farhan Zaidi believes Darrin Ruf will provide as much production this year as anybody he could have signed as a Free Agent. Let's say they signed Kris Bryant or Nick Castellanos (who went to Philly and was guy I had my eye on) to play that spot. They would have been paying $25M for a few years to them. That would prevent the Giants from plugging in say Heliot Ramos in 2023, who will be making less than a $1M, and also getting this productive year from Ruff, and they'd have to pay what, $125M for that pain?
If Ramos stalls out his development in 2022, the Giants can look at a free agent RF next year. But if Ramos rakes, not signing Castellanos will prove the smarter decision.
I'm sensitive to the possibility the Giants are being too frugal, but am not ready to die on that hill just yet.
Actually signing a FA would not have meant they don’t sign Ruf, or plugging in Ramos. Not in the least. Zaidi made the same comment vis a vis Ruf and FA. The obvious question to ask is why not both? 25 million brings this years payroll to a modest $165,000,000.
Speaking of Ramos. ‘20 hurt him perhaps more than any other Giants prospect. He seemed to be on the cusp after ‘19. Has a rather pedestrian year in ‘21. Not sure his star is shining quite as brightly. This is a big year for him. He has the tools and looks the part. But so did Todd Linden….