Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - Printable Version
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RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - Farm93 - 11-03-2020
(11-02-2020, 07:55 PM)Goose Wrote:Goose, if you thought your friends in Italy were livid with the bill of goods they were sold, just wait until we see the attitudes in the USA as the second wave looks unavoidable. My big fear is those that are livid, and then get COVID, may not feel obligated to then help their government.(11-02-2020, 02:31 PM)M T Wrote: If I read the numbers correctly for Santa Clara County, 43% of those who get a positive test identify NO close contacts.I think you read the numbers correctly. However, what I think it means is that 43% of those who get a positive test refuse to cooperate. They name nobody (and probably do not isolate). It doesn't matter how you ask the question if that is the case. There is also the 15% who test positive and SCC Health can't reach them (for whatever reason). Those two numbers add up to 58% of the positive cases naming no contacts at all. It is interesting IMHO that the number of cases who are NOT "contacts to a case" in SCC parlance is 58.9%. Wonder why that is?
We are still somewhat shutdown, but, really?
If that were correct, it is both good (that's why we don't spread as fast as elsewhere) and bad (how they heck did they get sick in the first place?)..
I might suspect the question is "Since you took your test, how many people have you spent more than 15 minutes with, withing 6 feet, and without a mask:?" (Which would be a (IMO) stupid way to look for such information. I hope that is NOT what they ask)
Ultimately every place in the world will have some that just don't acknowledge the scientific messages from their government. Throughout the EU, generally, those in the know were out there saying the right things including the possibility of a second wave. Some leaders, like Merkel, wanted to imply a second shutdown was not a desired path, but COVID has its own plans. Still, the EU coronavirus commission definitely raised the possibility rather early in the process.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/top-eu-doctor-europe-should-brace-itself-for-second-wave-of-coronavirus
https://www.euronews.com/2020/07/15/coronavirus-how-is-the-eu-preparing-for-a-second-wave
https://bgr.com/2020/10/01/coronavirus-second-wave-germany-measures-no-lockdown/
That said, here in the USA we have a lot of powerful people saying the wrong things about COVID mitigation with stunning regularity, and those capable of saying the right things have often been told to stay out of the limelight (see. Fauci & Birx).
Our health care workers are amazing. However when our society's view of health care is coupled with really bad federal messaging, then we are not positioning ourselves for success.
My assumption will be most schools (K-12 & colleges) will be closed for a number of weeks in the December-February window, but true to our national priorities student-athletes will represent their universities in the CFP per the schedule.
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - Goose - 11-04-2020
(11-03-2020, 02:32 PM)Farm93 Wrote: Goose, if you thought your friends in Italy were livid with the bill of goods they were sold, just wait until we see the attitudes in the USA as the second wave looks unavoidable. My big fear is those that are livid, and then get COVID, may not feel obligated to then help their government.
Ultimately every place in the world will have some that just don't acknowledge the scientific messages from their government. Throughout the EU, generally, those in the know were out there saying the right things including the possibility of a second wave. Some leaders, like Merkel, wanted to imply a second shutdown was not a desired path, but COVID has its own plans. Still, the EU coronavirus commission definitely raised the possibility rather early in the process.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/top-eu-doctor-europe-should-brace-itself-for-second-wave-of-coronavirus
https://www.euronews.com/2020/07/15/coronavirus-how-is-the-eu-preparing-for-a-second-wave
https://bgr.com/2020/10/01/coronavirus-second-wave-germany-measures-no-lockdown/
Farm93, I am not quite sure what you mean by "just don't acknowledge the scientific messages from their government". The articles you link to are certainly not from their governments. The closest is the first one that quotes a former member of government. The point you make about "Some leaders, like Merkel, wanted to imply a second shutdown was not a desired path, but COVID has its own plans." is exactly correct. The problem is that as of now it appears that "the science" doesn't do a good enough job of telling us what those plans were. The operative point is that "Merkel wanted to imply...". It is true that there have been many warnings that "there could be a second outbreak". The problem is that in Europe the public believed (and was told) that the governments had a handle on things and that the tracking/tracing would detect any new outbreak and allow local precise control of such outbreaks. The warnings are a lot like the disclaimers on commercials. After you have just been sold a new investment there are "weasel words" about past performance etc. That doesn't make you any less angry when the investment fails.
In Italy it is at least true that there are three levels of "lockdown" in place. Around Rome (Lazio) they are "green", which means primary schools are open, high schools and universities are on the internet. Everything must close at 2200. Bars must close at 1800. In Campania (Naples area) they are "yellow", which closes everything by 1800, shopping malls are closed period, there are no bars open, and you can't leave the region (Campania). There are other restrictions as well in "yellow" areas. Calabria is "red", which my friends say is worse than the original lockdown. Only food stores and pharmacies are open and you must stay home. So it may be said the government is at least trying to match the cure with the level of disease. However, whatever they do, it is going to really hit the economy hard and really reduce confidence in subsequent reopenings.
The problem is that the population didn't expect this to happen on such a wide scale and with such suddenness. If "the science" was as good as they were led to believe, it wouldn't have. Exponential spread is bad enough, but significant time delays in becoming ill and disease transmission from people who are not yet sick creates a very unstable situation. Control can be lost entirely too easily it seems.