Stanford Football: State of Program

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RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - BostonCard - 09-29-2020

(09-29-2020, 08:47 AM)gailtate Wrote: If Cal finds a way to retain Wilcox, right now the best coach in CA, Stanford football's reversion to its historical mean will be complete.

Gail, this sentence makes no sense. All the clauses may be true (Cal may find a way to retain Wilcox, Wilcox may be the best coach in CA, and Stanford may revert to its historical mean), but the consequent is not actually dependent on the antecedent. In other words, Stanford football's reversion to its historical mean may occur even if Cal doesn't find a way to retain Wilcox (or if Wilcox is not the best coach in California). And, in fact, given that Stanford leads the series 59–44–10 (.566), the "historical mean" would be for Stanford to be a middling team (one that wins ~60% of its games (all time record of 657–467–49), consistent with about a 7-5 record) that still beats Cal more often than not.

BC

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - winflop - 09-29-2020

(09-28-2020, 03:58 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Cal fans are now hoping Shaw stays forever because they are convinced Justin Wilcox is the superior guy. Hard to argue that at this point.

It seems Shaw has the football program in a flat spin at the moment. Can he pull out of it, or is crashing and burning inevitable? My concern is he needs to eject so he can live to fly another day in a new aircraft, and he is instead going to try recovering the one he is in, convinced he has the ability to pull out when he does not.

The seven game schedule is going to reward the coaches who simplify things and create a loose culture that makes playing fun, more than ever before. I’m concerned Shaw will approach it with a “we’ll just have to live with the mistakes” mentality, not a “let’s keep it simple to avoid mental mistakes and just have fun” one. Hope I am wrong.

Kal fans would be silly to think about Wilcox staying. One more winning season and a top-notch program is going to snatch him for big bucks that they can't possibly afford.

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - SamuelMcF - 09-29-2020

I do wonder if ANY program is going to fire their HC this season, considering the asterisks that accompany it. Further, the coaching carousel at the end of last season was pretty wild, so a lot of programs are breaking in new staffs. (Though I'm not sure if that number is significantly more than in previous seasons. Maybe it's always that tumultuous.)

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - BostonCard - 09-29-2020

(09-29-2020, 11:14 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote: I do wonder if ANY program is going to fire their HC this season, considering the asterisks that accompany it. Further, the coaching carousel at the end of last season was pretty wild, so a lot of programs are breaking in new staffs. (Though I'm not sure if that number is significantly more than in previous seasons. Maybe it's always that tumultuous.)

You would think not, but I have a hard time believing that nobody will be fired. The shortened season didn't stop the Clippers from firing Doc Rivers.

BC

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - Phogge - 09-29-2020

If Coach O loses a few more he might find a python in his sheets one night. No puns allowed CI.

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - Papa John - 09-29-2020

(09-28-2020, 12:15 PM)BobK Wrote: 5-2. No clue how a bowl would work.
:).

I was thinking the same thing, BobK, but it really depends on whom Stanford faces from the Pac-12 South. I could see 3-2 or maybe 4-1 versus the Pac-12 North.

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - gailtate - 09-29-2020

(09-29-2020, 09:14 AM)BostonCard Wrote:
(09-29-2020, 08:47 AM)gailtate Wrote: If Cal finds a way to retain Wilcox, right now the best coach in CA, Stanford football's reversion to its historical mean will be complete.

Gail, this sentence makes no sense. All the clauses may be true (Cal may find a way to retain Wilcox, Wilcox may be the best coach in CA, and Stanford may revert to its historical mean), but the consequent is not actually dependent on the antecedent. In other words, Stanford football's reversion to its historical mean may occur even if Cal doesn't find a way to retain Wilcox (or if Wilcox is not the best coach in California). And, in fact, given that Stanford leads the series 59–44–10 (.566), the "historical mean" would be for Stanford to be a middling team (one that wins ~60% of its games (all time record of 657–467–49), consistent with about a 7-5 record) that still beats Cal more often than not.

BC

Of course, it "may occur" IF Wilcox departs. And probably will if Shaw remains, but that's beside my point. Which is that IF Wilcox establishes a career in Berkeley AND Stanford retains Shaw in its reverence for Shaw's past, Cardinal Football will no longer enjoy superiority in the Bay Area. The BG will favor the superior program as it always has. And the superior program will no longer be Stanford's. I hope this does not come to pass, of course. But it is now far more likely.

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - Papa John - 09-29-2020

Is Justin Wilcox the Berkeley coming of Jim Harbaugh? Maybe, but I'm not 100% convinced. During his 3-year lifetime head coaching career, Wilcox is 20-18 (10-17). The last two years his teams were 4-5 in the Pac-12.

Wilcox's 2018 recruiting class was ranked by 247sports #8 in the Pac-12, #42 nationally.
His 2019 recruiting class was ranked #8 in the Pac-12, #43 nationally.
His 2020 recruiting class was ranked #8, #39.
His 2021 recruiting class will be better, but we'll see in February how much better.

In his first three years at Stanford, Harbaugh--coming off of the Harris disaster--went 17-20 (13-14). The last two years his teams were 4-5 and 6-3 in the Pac-10.

Harbaugh's 2008 recruiting class was ranked by 247sports #9 in the Pac-10, #47 nationally.
His 2009 recruiting class was ranked #3, #21 nationally.
His 2010 recruiting class was ranked #6, #25.
The 2011 Harbaugh/Shaw recruiting class was ranked #4, #22.

In spite of the ash that I've seen on my windshield in the past few weeks, the Stanford football sky is not falling. Is it likely to fall? The data don't suggest it, at least not yet.