The Color Purple - (1) Irreducible Minimums

The Color Purple - (1) Irreducible Minimums - Printable Version

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RE: The Color Purple - (1) Irreducible Minimums - 2006alum - 06-01-2020

(05-31-2020, 06:59 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: Boy, that's harder than it seems. We have never had this need before. We might never have it again for a few centuries.

There's a famous story abut a guard posted by a small flower bed in one of the Czar's palaces in St. Petersburg. Every day the guard would change, 24 hours, different watches, the works. But no one knew why, what was so important with this flowerbed that it was watched so intensely. This went on through most of the 19th Century. Finally, someone took the time to find out WHY the flowerbed was being guarded. It took research into a hundred years of palace orders, to find out that Catherine the Great had placed the guard there when there were some new and rare geraniums she wanted protected. The geraniums were long gone, as was Catherine, but the order had never been rescinded. And so a totally useless guard was kept for over a century.

Maybe you could include it in National Guard protocols, or police affiliates, or some such, so you have a useful cadre of volunteers at the ready. It would also fit neatly into the rubric of national service, in which I believe. But a dedicated unit? Might turn into another flower guard thing.

Hmm, I looked around, but it appears that this story is not based in fact - it's more probably a fictional urban legend that is common in Christian sermons:

Quote:It's a good story, but is it true? I can't find it in any of my Brunvand

books, which doesn't necessarily mean anything. Any suggestions on where

to start looking in a library? Even better (I can hope), does anyone

here know of a cite for it?

Quote:Searching on flower sentry czar

Versions to be found here:

http://www.christianglobe.com/Illustrations/a-z/t/tradition.htm

http://www.trinitycrc.org/sermons/mt05v21.html [far down]

http://life.1stbaptist.org/SERa121000.htm

http://www.daft.com/~rab/liberty/Miscellaneous/Customs

http://www.escape.ca/~fpc/sermonjan62002.htm

http://www.leadershipdynamics.org/2000/12-11-00.htm

http://www.archimedesfoundation.org/quotes.html [also far down]

and on and on. It seems to happen either in 1860 or 1903 in all the
versions. Interesting that it appears in so many Christian sermons in my
search.

Apparently versions of this story appear in Babylon V and also peg it to the White Cliffs of Dover:

Quote:In the best science fiction TV series ever, Babylon V, Ambassador Londo
Mollari told exactly the same story about a spot being guarded in the
palace grounds on Centari Prime for hundreds of years.

Quote:Fair-use quotation from:
http://hootenanny.org/disney_rant/FMPro5.html (and, close to verbatim,
many other sites - did this appear in a "how to write speeches"
cluebook?)
"In 1803, the British positioned a watchman with a spyglass on the
Cliffs of Dover, looking over the Channel toward France. His mission was
clear: If he saw Napoleon's ships invading England, he was to ring the
warning bell he had been provided.
Napoleon never came, the bell never rang, but the watchman's position
was not abolished until 1945."
Oddly, I couldn't find this on urbanlegends.com or at snopes.com. On the
web, it is much vectored by anti-bureaucratic bloviators. I found
nothing resembling either debunkage or vorification.

No one seems to have a reputable source for this story, however, so it's probable that it isn't true, even though it makes an elegant point for "anti-bureaucratic bloviators." Given how many urban legends Catherine the Great has inspired, including, most famously, that of the Potemkin Village, which most scholars think was what we now call "fake news" spread by her political rivals, perhaps this is not a surprise.

RE: The Color Purple - (1) Irreducible Minimums - Genuine Realist - 06-01-2020

(06-01-2020, 08:25 AM)2006alum Wrote:
(05-31-2020, 06:59 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: Boy, that's harder than it seems. We have never had this need before. We might never have it again for a few centuries.

There's a famous story abut a guard posted by a small flower bed in one of the Czar's palaces in St. Petersburg. Every day the guard would change, 24 hours, different watches, the works. But no one knew why, what was so important with this flowerbed that it was watched so intensely. This went on through most of the 19th Century. Finally, someone took the time to find out WHY the flowerbed was being guarded. It took research into a hundred years of palace orders, to find out that Catherine the Great had placed the guard there when there were some new and rare geraniums she wanted protected. The geraniums were long gone, as was Catherine, but the order had never been rescinded. And so a totally useless guard was kept for over a century.

Maybe you could include it in National Guard protocols, or police affiliates, or some such, so you have a useful cadre of volunteers at the ready. It would also fit neatly into the rubric of national service, in which I believe. But a dedicated unit? Might turn into another flower guard thing.

Hmm, I looked around, but it appears that this story is not based in fact - it's more probably a fictional urban legend that is common in Christian sermons:

Quote:It's a good story, but is it true? I can't find it in any of my Brunvand

books, which doesn't necessarily mean anything. Any suggestions on where

to start looking in a library? Even better (I can hope), does anyone

here know of a cite for it?

Quote:Searching on flower sentry czar

Versions to be found here:

http://www.christianglobe.com/Illustrations/a-z/t/tradition.htm

http://www.trinitycrc.org/sermons/mt05v21.html [far down]

http://life.1stbaptist.org/SERa121000.htm

http://www.daft.com/~rab/liberty/Miscellaneous/Customs

http://www.escape.ca/~fpc/sermonjan62002.htm

http://www.leadershipdynamics.org/2000/12-11-00.htm

http://www.archimedesfoundation.org/quotes.html [also far down]

and on and on. It seems to happen either in 1860 or 1903 in all the
versions. Interesting that it appears in so many Christian sermons in my
search.

Apparently versions of this story appear in Babylon V and also peg it to the White Cliffs of Dover:

Quote:In the best science fiction TV series ever, Babylon V, Ambassador Londo
Mollari told exactly the same story about a spot being guarded in the
palace grounds on Centari Prime for hundreds of years.

Quote:Fair-use quotation from:
http://hootenanny.org/disney_rant/FMPro5.html (and, close to verbatim,
many other sites - did this appear in a "how to write speeches"
cluebook?)
"In 1803, the British positioned a watchman with a spyglass on the
Cliffs of Dover, looking over the Channel toward France. His mission was
clear: If he saw Napoleon's ships invading England, he was to ring the
warning bell he had been provided.
Napoleon never came, the bell never rang, but the watchman's position
was not abolished until 1945."
Oddly, I couldn't find this on urbanlegends.com or at snopes.com. On the
web, it is much vectored by anti-bureaucratic bloviators. I found
nothing resembling either debunkage or vorification.

No one seems to have a reputable source for this story, however, so it's probable that it isn't true, even though it makes an elegant point for "anti-bureaucratic bloviators." Given how many urban legends Catherine the Great has inspired, including, most famously, that of the Potemkin Village, which most scholars think was what we now call "fake news" spread by her political rivals, perhaps this is not a surprise.

I picked it up from a very knowledgable tour guide in St. Petersburg, while going by THE (so she said) flowerbed.

In any case, the moral stands. After a brief ventilator shortage scare in early March, we probably have enough for the next several centuries, or so I am told.

You want to plan with flexibility for worst case, but not necessarily staff and budget. The present situation is unique in the experience of the modern world. Who knows when or if it will ever recur again.

(06-01-2020, 08:25 AM)2006alum Wrote:
(05-31-2020, 06:59 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: Boy, that's harder than it seems. We have never had this need before. We might never have it again for a few centuries.

There's a famous story abut a guard posted by a small flower bed in one of the Czar's palaces in St. Petersburg. Every day the guard would change, 24 hours, different watches, the works. But no one knew why, what was so important with this flowerbed that it was watched so intensely. This went on through most of the 19th Century. Finally, someone took the time to find out WHY the flowerbed was being guarded. It took research into a hundred years of palace orders, to find out that Catherine the Great had placed the guard there when there were some new and rare geraniums she wanted protected. The geraniums were long gone, as was Catherine, but the order had never been rescinded. And so a totally useless guard was kept for over a century.

Maybe you could include it in National Guard protocols, or police affiliates, or some such, so you have a useful cadre of volunteers at the ready. It would also fit neatly into the rubric of national service, in which I believe. But a dedicated unit? Might turn into another flower guard thing.

Hmm, I looked around, but it appears that this story is not based in fact - it's more probably a fictional urban legend that is common in Christian sermons:

Quote:It's a good story, but is it true? I can't find it in any of my Brunvand

books, which doesn't necessarily mean anything. Any suggestions on where

to start looking in a library? Even better (I can hope), does anyone

here know of a cite for it?

Quote:Searching on flower sentry czar

Versions to be found here:

http://www.christianglobe.com/Illustrations/a-z/t/tradition.htm

http://www.trinitycrc.org/sermons/mt05v21.html [far down]

http://life.1stbaptist.org/SERa121000.htm

http://www.daft.com/~rab/liberty/Miscellaneous/Customs

http://www.escape.ca/~fpc/sermonjan62002.htm

http://www.leadershipdynamics.org/2000/12-11-00.htm

http://www.archimedesfoundation.org/quotes.html [also far down]

and on and on. It seems to happen either in 1860 or 1903 in all the
versions. Interesting that it appears in so many Christian sermons in my
search.

Apparently versions of this story appear in Babylon V and also peg it to the White Cliffs of Dover:

Quote:In the best science fiction TV series ever, Babylon V, Ambassador Londo
Mollari told exactly the same story about a spot being guarded in the
palace grounds on Centari Prime for hundreds of years.

Quote:Fair-use quotation from:
http://hootenanny.org/disney_rant/FMPro5.html (and, close to verbatim,
many other sites - did this appear in a "how to write speeches"
cluebook?)
"In 1803, the British positioned a watchman with a spyglass on the
Cliffs of Dover, looking over the Channel toward France. His mission was
clear: If he saw Napoleon's ships invading England, he was to ring the
warning bell he had been provided.
Napoleon never came, the bell never rang, but the watchman's position
was not abolished until 1945."
Oddly, I couldn't find this on urbanlegends.com or at snopes.com. On the
web, it is much vectored by anti-bureaucratic bloviators. I found
nothing resembling either debunkage or vorification.

No one seems to have a reputable source for this story, however, so it's probable that it isn't true, even though it makes an elegant point for "anti-bureaucratic bloviators." Given how many urban legends Catherine the Great has inspired, including, most famously, that of the Potemkin Village, which most scholars think was what we now call "fake news" spread by her political rivals, perhaps this is not a surprise.

RE: The Color Purple - (1) Irreducible Minimums - BostonCard - 06-01-2020

And tour guides have never, ever, embellished or even made up stories about places to amuse the tourists.

This sounds like the embodiment of "truthiness".

To your larger point, while there is always the danger of fighting the last war, so to speak, it seems like a broad, well-funded public health campaign might be generally useful. In addition to dealing with pandemics, public health agencies can do a lot of good in terms of much more run-of-the-mill diseases, including influenza, sexually transmitted infections, tuberculosis, food borne illnesses such as E. coli outbreaks, not to mention non-infectious conditions; as recently as last year, the CDC was on the hunt for the agent that was causing electronic cigarette users to develop severe respiratory symptoms (turned out to be vitamin E acetate which was used as a vehicle for THC cartridges). And while most novel outbreaks won't develop into a widespread pandemic, there will always be threats: there are many new coronaviruses out there, a novel influenza strain could cause a 1918-like pandemic, there's zika, west nile virus, and other mosquito-borne viruses, Ebola, and many other zoonotic diseases.

To me the analogy is less like the (possibly apocryphal) tale of Catherine the Great's flower garden, and more like maintaining an army during peacetime. We spend billions a year training and maintaining an arm. While there may be genuine disagreement over the right level of spending for the military, I think few serious people would recommend completely dismantling the military at peacetime and trying to reconstitute it when we get into a war. You would always want, I would think, an adequate ready trained and active military with the possibility of calling up a body of reserves should the need arise.

BC

RE: The Color Purple - (1) Irreducible Minimums - oregontim - 06-01-2020

(06-01-2020, 08:25 AM)2006alum Wrote: Hmm, I looked around, but it appears that this story is not based in fact - it's more probably a fictional urban legend that is common in Christian sermons:

Apparently versions of this story appear in Babylon V and also peg it to the White Cliffs of Dover:

No one seems to have a reputable source for this story, however, so it's probable that it isn't true, even though it makes an elegant point for "anti-bureaucratic bloviators."

Stories, especially old unprovable stories. are a special kind of communication. They can be essentially true without being factually true. All the great religions use stories to explain. That it might be urban legend, or didn't really happen, ought not to void its point. IMO

RE: The Color Purple - (1) Irreducible Minimums - 2006alum - 06-01-2020

(06-01-2020, 10:59 AM)oregontim Wrote:
(06-01-2020, 08:25 AM)2006alum Wrote: Hmm, I looked around, but it appears that this story is not based in fact - it's more probably a fictional urban legend that is common in Christian sermons:

Apparently versions of this story appear in Babylon V and also peg it to the White Cliffs of Dover:

No one seems to have a reputable source for this story, however, so it's probable that it isn't true, even though it makes an elegant point for "anti-bureaucratic bloviators."

Stories, especially old unprovable stories. are a special kind of communication. They can be essentially true without being factually true. All the great religions use stories to explain. That it might be urban legend, or didn't really happen, ought not to void its point. IMO

I mean, if the story isn't factually true, what is the significance of it? Anyone could make up anything and attach the significance of hundreds of years, of Czars, of grand themes and sweeping metaphors. But if it's not in fact the case that an institution ran on auto-pilot for 100 years, then it's using fiction to make an argument seem far more salient and relevant than it is.

And if anything, unfortunately, I have tended to experience the opposite in the institutions I've worked in in my life: they are only as good as the people who occupy them, and when the founders/originators/change-agents leave and are replaced by less competent successors, the institutions start to fall apart. YMMV as to whether that also applies to the house that went dark last night...

RE: The Color Purple - (1) Irreducible Minimums - Genuine Realist - 06-01-2020

(06-01-2020, 10:53 AM)BostonCard Wrote: And tour guides have never, ever, embellished or even made up stories about places to amuse the tourists.

This sounds like the embodiment of "truthiness".

To your larger point, while there is always the danger of fighting the last war, so to speak, it seems like a broad, well-funded public health campaign might be generally useful. In addition to dealing with pandemics, public health agencies can do a lot of good in terms of much more run-of-the-mill diseases, including influenza, sexually transmitted infections, tuberculosis, food borne illnesses such as E. coli outbreaks, not to mention non-infectious conditions; as recently as last year, the CDC was on the hunt for the agent that was causing electronic cigarette users to develop severe respiratory symptoms (turned out to be vitamin E acetate which was used as a vehicle for THC cartridges). And while most novel outbreaks won't develop into a widespread pandemic, there will always be threats: there are many new coronaviruses out there, a novel influenza strain could cause a 1918-like pandemic, there's zika, west nile virus, and other mosquito-borne viruses, Ebola, and many other zoonotic diseases.

To me the analogy is less like the (possibly apocryphal) tale of Catherine the Great's flower garden, and more like maintaining an army during peacetime. We spend billions a year training and maintaining an arm. While there may be genuine disagreement over the right level of spending for the military, I think few serious people would recommend completely dismantling the military at peacetime and trying to reconstitute it when we get into a war. You would always want, I would think, an adequate ready trained and active military with the possibility of calling up a body of reserves should the need arise.

BC

I think you want a reserve army.

BTW, this was no ordinary tour guide. Three days of pretty intense study of St. Petersburg and its environs. She was no lightweight.

RE: The Color Purple - (1) Irreducible Minimums - oldalum - 06-01-2020

(06-01-2020, 12:14 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: BTW, this was no ordinary tour guide. Three days of pretty intense study of St. Petersburg and its environs. She was no lightweight.

The Russian tour guides have to undergo very detailed testing every year on the sites they are guiding on, to be certified to guide during the upcoming tourist season. They are really knowledgeable. The main one I had last year was absolutely terrific, really made the trip for us. Had an interesting background: as depicted in the Chernobyl docudrama, he was one of the youths drafted to help clean up the surrounding area, but he knew what was afoot and managed to flee the country and spent years in the U.S. in exile until the Soviet Union dissolved, then he returned home and became a tour guide.

RE: The Color Purple - (1) Irreducible Minimums - oregontim - 06-01-2020

(06-01-2020, 12:13 PM)2006alum Wrote: I mean, if the story isn't factually true, what is the significance of it? Anyone could make up anything and attach the significance of hundreds of years, of Czars, of grand themes and sweeping metaphors. But if it's not in fact the case that an institution ran on auto-pilot for 100 years, then it's using fiction to make an argument seem far more salient and relevant than it is.

Does there have to have been a specific naked emperor for the story of the Emperor's New Clothes to be useful? Did there have to be a specific prodigal son? Or a good Samaritan? When those laborers got paid the same wage, in that story, did it have to be true to have meaning? Or if you don't relate to those, how about the famous stories that Buddha or Confucius told?

GR's story makes sense to me, and has a point, irregardless of whether it's factually true. What matters is that it could have been true, and it sheds light on its subject matter. Because I do see that kind of behavior in the world today, regulations that live on long after the problem was solved. Look at blue laws, for example.

RE: The Color Purple - (1) Irreducible Minimums - Genuine Realist - 06-01-2020

(05-31-2020, 08:57 PM)Goose Wrote:
(05-31-2020, 06:59 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: Boy, that's harder than it seems. We have never had this need before.
Actually, yes, we have needed it before and had it before. The States and counties had permanent staff whose job it was to identify, trace, and track TB. There were also hospitals owned by both the states and Federal government to house people with TB. Lots of these facilities were closed in the late 60's/early 70's Even today there are "residual" TB testing and tracing responsibilities at the county level. This isn't a "new" thing.

Quote:We might never have it again for a few centuries.
True. One could say that the last time a "novel" disease really affected the US was the 1918 pandemic. So, maybe once in a hundred years could be a guess at the frequency. However, travel across the entire world has become so much faster and so much more common that the probability of a major novel disease being transferred from one part of the world to everywhere else is much greater. The damage such a disease can cause is also much greater, as the much larger urban population relies on "essential services". We can't all SIP and survive. In addition, the economic consequences are severe.

The US was fortunate that neither SARS or MERS really took hold here. In nations where it did, they learned the lesson and kept their tracking, tracing, and containment strategies in place. Australia has a pretty good capability as well because of all the epidemics in New Guinea. In the past 20 years, we have seen SARS, MERS, H1N1, ZIKA virus and EBOLA pop up. We basically dodged them or they weren't bad enough to hurt us much. COVID-19 was that bad.

Quote:<snip>
Maybe you could include it in National Guard protocols, or police affiliates, or some such, so you have a useful cadre of volunteers at the ready. It would also fit neatly into the rubric of national service, in which I believe. But a dedicated unit? Might turn into another flower guard thing.
I doubt it. It is very probable we will see another serious viral threat in the next 10 years, given that we saw 6 in the last 20 years. We didn't need a great tracing capability 5 of the 6 times, but when we did, boy howdy did we. Having volunteers or part timers as the core of our response won't cut it. They have to be ready to go on day 0 or we have no hope of containment. We can argue about what the "right" staffing level may be. Right now, Santa Clara County is looking at about 1000 people. Maybe in the future having 250 full time, 250 trained but working elsewhere as county employees, and 500 not yet trained but available from other departments/organizations might work. The state is looking at 10,000. We probably don't need that many on the job all the time, but we do need a "surge" capability with training plans to ramp up very quickly if required. We can't let this happen to us again without making a good effort to prevent it.

Did we in fact do any effective testing with SARS, MERS, and the others? It certainly wasn't particularly well publicized.

RE: The Color Purple - (1) Irreducible Minimums - BostonCard - 06-01-2020

https://www.cdc.gov/sars/surveillance/absence.html

(note this is an archived page, last changed when SARS looks to have been eradicated)

Quote:Laboratory testing for SARS-CoV is now available at many state public health laboratories. Available tests include antibody testing using an enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests for respiratory, blood, and stool specimens. In the absence of person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV, the positive predictive value of a diagnostic test is extremely low. False-positive test results may generate tremendous anxiety and concern and expend valuable public health resources. Therefore, SARS-CoV testing should be performed judiciously, and preferably only in consultation with the local or state health department. SARS-CoV testing should be considered if no alternative diagnosis is identified 72 hours after initiation of the clinical evaluation and the patient is thought to be at high risk for SARS-CoV disease (e.g., is part of a cluster of unexplained pneumonia cases).
Providers should immediately report all positive SARS-CoV test results to the local or state health department. Confirmatory SARS-CoV testing at an appropriate confirmatory test site should be arranged through the local or state health department as outlined in Supplement F, Public Health Guidance for Community-Level Preparedness and Response to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).
Guidelines for the collection and transport of specimens for SARS-CoV testing are provided in Appendix F4, Supplement F, in Public Health Guidance for Community-Level Preparedness and Response to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).
CDC is working with the Association of Public Health Laboratories (APHL) and the Laboratory Response Network (LRN) to ensure that SARS RT-PCR and EIA tests meet quality control guidelines. CDC will also be distributing proficiency testing materials to participating laboratories.

And here is the page on MERS:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/lab/lab-testing.html

You didn't hear about it because everything more or less worked. The tests worked and the epidemic was controlled.

BC