Bowl projections - Printable Version

Bowl projections - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Bowl projections (/thread-17832.html)

Pages: 1 2

RE: Bowl projections - ADPinWDC - 07-10-2019

How about Stenstrom under Walsh 2.0, 1991-94. Had one season over 3,500 yards passing.
>10K career yards (with -1,200 in sacks).
Walsh was a THROW FIRST kinda guy.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/pac-12/leaders/pass-yds-player-season.html

Perhaps... Costello needs to break the Stanford single season passing record (3,627 y; Stenstrom, 1993) for us to get to 8 wins.
To be in the Top 10 all time for a Single Season in Pac12, you need to throw >4,000 yards.
https://gostanford.com/news/2016/6/28/stanford-football-passing-records.aspx

RE: Bowl projections - BobK - 07-10-2019

If league history
Luck
Elway.
Stenstrom a great thought. But I read the post before I thought of him

Mick who is Gustafson? An Iowa WB? :)

RE: Bowl projections - Mick - 07-12-2019

(07-10-2019, 12:02 PM)BobK Wrote: If league history
Luck
Elway.
Stenstrom a great thought. But I read the post before I thought of him

Mick who is Gustafson? An Iowa WB? :)

Jerry Gustafson, after Albert overlapped with Brodie. 1956 grad. 27th round NFL pick, played one year in the CFL -- and did pretty well.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Gustafson

The answer to the trivia question is: none. No Stanford quarterback has had a season in the Pac-12's Top 25 seasons, based upon most yardage. Stenstrom's 1993 season came closest with 3,627 yards.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/pac-12/leaders/pass-yds-player-season.html

Stanford's best:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_Cardinal_football_statistical_leaders

RE: Bowl projections - Farm93 - 07-12-2019

A lot of relatively famous QBs on bad teams in that Top 20 list. Yes, a couple of good teams, but a whole lot of awful teams too.

Those that need to pass a lot are often waaaaaay behind late in the game and their opponents let them get loads of 4th quarter passing yards. Those awful teams are often trailing by multiple TDs so 10 yard pass plays in the middle of the field are OK and often those QBs add in a few 4Q INTs along the way too. A bit like how UCB loaded up on passing yardage in the 4th quarter in the 2018 Big Game while also tossing 2 INTs.

Given Coach Shaw's preference for a slow huddle approach when leading or in close games it will be almost impossible for a winning Shaw team to produce enough plays to get a QB into this list of mostly lovable losers. Shaw's QB only gets on this list if the team is losing big in most games.

Stanford's few 1,000 yard RBs have had much better seasons than most of those Pac-10/12 QBs in the top 20. Show a commitment to the run to make sure run oriented OL recruits and run oriented staff keep Stanford high on the list. If Stanford has a 1,500 yd RB life will be OK. If Stanford has a 4,000 yard QB it will be a very, very long season. :(

RE: Bowl projections - Mick - 07-12-2019

(07-12-2019, 12:21 PM)Farm93 Wrote: A lot of relatively famous QBs on bad teams in that Top 20 list. Yes, a couple of good teams, but a whole lot of awful teams too.

Those that need to pass a lot are often waaaaaay behind late in the game and their opponents let them get loads of 4th quarter passing yards. Those awful teams are often trailing by multiple TDs so 10 yard pass plays in the middle of the field are OK and often those QBs add in a few 4Q INTs along the way too. A bit like how UCB loaded up on passing yardage in the 4th quarter in the 2018 Big Game while also tossing 2 INTs.

Given Coach Shaw's preference for a slow huddle approach when leading or in close games it will be almost impossible for a winning Shaw team to produce enough plays to get a QB into this list of mostly lovable losers. Shaw's QB only gets on this list if the team is losing big in most games.

Stanford's few 1,000 yard RBs have had much better seasons than most of those Pac-10/12 QBs in the top 20. Show a commitment to the run to make sure run oriented OL recruits and run oriented staff keep Stanford high on the list. If Stanford has a 1,500 yd RB life will be OK. If Stanford has a 4,000 yard QB it will be a very, very long season. :(

Fair enough.

Same question, but instead of yards, passer efficiency rating. How many Stanford QBs on the list, for how many seasons. Bonus, who are they?

RE: Bowl projections - BobK - 07-12-2019

Frankie Albert
Husak
Hogan

Frankie Albert
Husak
Hogan

RE: Bowl projections - BostonCard - 07-12-2019

Luck has gotta be on there; his 2010 and 2011 seasons were only a hair behind Hogan's 2015 season in the 170 range.

And I seriously doubt there are many pre-2000 QB's on the list, so don't think Albert will be there.

I don't think Husak's 1999 season was better than Costello's season last year.

So I'll go with Luck, Hogan, and Costello.

BC

RE: Bowl projections - Mick - 07-12-2019

(07-12-2019, 06:18 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Luck has gotta be on there; his 2010 and 2011 seasons were only a hair behind Hogan's 2015 season in the 170 range.

And I seriously doubt there are many pre-2000 QB's on the list, so don't think Albert will be there.

I don't think Husak's 1999 season was better than Costello's season last year.

So I'll go with Luck, Hogan, and Costello.

BC

You are correct on Luck and Hogan. Their seasons are the #4, #5 and #6 best in Pac-12 history for passer rating. Not Costello

You're right about few pre-2000 QBs on the list. There's only a few from the 1990s.

But there's one from the 1970s. And it's a Stanford QB. Remember, NCAA passing champions Dils and Benjamin, Elway, Schonert, Bunce, Cordova, Boryla, Plunkett.

Who was it?

RE: Bowl projections - BobK - 07-12-2019

Turk or Dils
Elway threw a lot of interceptions

RE: Bowl projections - Mick - 07-12-2019

(07-12-2019, 07:00 PM)BobK Wrote: Turk or Dils
Elway threw a lot of interceptions

Dils and Benjamin threw a lot of INTs, too. It was Turk in 1979 with a 163.2 rating, tied Marcus Mariota. That was the 5-5-1 year, the year they tied #1 USC at the Coliseum, and lost three of their last four.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/conferences/pac-12/leaders/pass-rating-player-season.html

RE: Bowl projections - GK3 - 07-13-2019

(07-08-2019, 09:21 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Quite the contrast between Athlon and Steele. While Athlon only ranks one of our units in the top half of the Pac-12, Steele says:

Quote:Stanford has all-around strength at various position groups, Steele says. "They are actually one of nine teams to rank in my top units in all eight categories. Never discount David Shaw's chances of winning the Pac-12 North."

Here's my assessment of the various units:
OL: High individual ceilings; has not shown that the unit can operate cohesively; little depth
RB: Love's graduation leaves big shoes to fill; Scarlett is only back with significant experience, but a question mark if he can become the go to starter. Behind him there is potential but little experience
WR: High potential and depth; little returning production
TE: Parkinson has the potential to be an elite receiving talent and major mismatch; unproven depth behind him
QB: Costello has experience and is coming off a very good season. I've expressed some concerns about how well he will work with the new receivers. Back-ups have ? (Mills' health, West's ability)
DL: Best combination of talent, depth, and experience in years; should be strength of the team
LBs: OLB's have talent, experience, and depth; ILB's don't
DBs: Same as LB unit; CB's could be elite; Safeties could be a problem

Overall, 7-5 (5-4) and Vegas bowl smacks me as about right. Question marks at OL, and holes at RB, LB, DB hold back what should be an above average to excellent passing attack and a fierce D-line.

BC

I wonder how you see us getting to that 7-5 record. Your 5-4 means we have to win two of the three out of conference games. Logically, ND would appear to be your choice for a loss, but game is at Stanford. If we can beat SC in LA, we then only have to play WSU on the road out of Oregon, Washington, UCLA, and Cal. I agree with your position group thoughts, but Oregon, Washington, and WSU have their own uncertainties.
I am not too worried about how Costello meshes with his new set of receivers. By now he has thrown a lot of balls to them, should know where they like to get it, and how quick they come out of their cuts etc. I am more concerned with are they good enough to gain separation before and after the pass.This is the year we need Weddington to live up to his recruiting hype.

If you get your wish and mine, that the offensive line jells and proves it can both run and pass block, then Scarlett should fill the need at RB. But if we once again need a C Mac or Love who can simply beat people one on one, then we may need find out of Austin Jones has what it takes to be the next great running back.
If our defense proves to be truly good, then I think 7-5 would be an under performing result.

NW, UCF, Washington, and WSU all have unproven guys at Quarterback. I think the Oregon and ND games may be our toughest, and we get them at home. UCF will be tough simply because we have to play 3000 miles away. I am hoping their QB problems will be unsolved by the time we play that game. I am reasonably optimistic that 8-4 would be our most likely result.

One thing is certain is that it will be interesting to see how the season plays out not only for ourselves, but our opponents.

(07-10-2019, 05:54 AM)ADPinWDC Wrote: Last year was two different seasons, once Shaw relented on the Run game, and we became a PASS FIRST team.
-- Finished SECOND in Pac12 in passing, and 11th in rushing. Stark contrast.
With Costello (and Mills with Tanner McKee after that) and with a VERY STRONG pipeline of WRs, we are making the shift: THROW.
Throwing the ball will open the run. Shaw said it mid-season, "We were pass-blocking a lot better than run blocking."

In post-game comments, Shaw showed a LOT of confidence in Costello as the season matured. We start where we left off: THROW.

Maybe some Frosh play: Elijah Higgins (WR); if there are questions at RB, give Austin Jones some reps.
Bryce played as a Frosh (jet sweeps), so did McCaffrey a bit, more at slot back.

The other reason to THROW is in MORE games this year we may need to come from behind.

In addition to Jones and Higgens, I would pencil in Colby Bowman as a possible frosh who will see the field this year. His personal story is compelling and guys with that level of drive to succeed are the guys I want on my team. His 21.57 200 meter time is not all that shabby either.

RE: Bowl projections - qwerty49 - 07-14-2019

(07-13-2019, 05:41 AM)GK3 Wrote: In addition to Jones and Higgens, I would pencil in Colby Bowman as a possible frosh who will see the field this year. His personal story is compelling and guys with that level of drive to succeed are the guys I want on my team. His 21.57 200 meter time is not all that shabby either.

I don't believe he's a direct relation, but the Bowman tribe kinda owes us one.

RE: Bowl projections - SamuelMcF - 07-14-2019

(07-13-2019, 05:41 AM)GK3 Wrote: In addition to Jones and Higgens, I would pencil in Colby Bowman as a possible frosh who will see the field this year. His personal story is compelling and guys with that level of drive to succeed are the guys I want on my team. His 21.57 200 meter time is not all that shabby either.

I realize you're probably only talking about the offensive side of the ball here, but wanted to throw out other frosh who I believe will likely see the field:
- Tristan Sinclair. 100%. I'd burn his shirt just on STs. He's too athletically freakish to not contribute immediately. Ran the fastest short shuttle in the entire country in Opening testing, ran a 4.54 40, and had an over 37" vertical. I'm so bullish on him it's almost unhealthy.
- Stephen Herron will for sure get 4 games, even if just on STs. This is purely because our OLB depth is probably the strongest on the team (WR a close second only because they're young). If he's already good enough to beat out a guy like Tobe Umerah, bulk Tobe up and put him at DE. He's really athletic and has the frame.
- Ryan Sanborn will, for better or worse, most likely be our starting punter and kickoff guy. Josh Karty will handle kickoffs the moment he steps on campus next year.
- Not hard to envision a couple of the frosh DBs seeing the field in some capacity, whether on STs or in spot duty at NB/S. Not sure who, although Kyu Kelly is a speedster so I could see him getting time at nickel corner or gunner on punt cover. And Salim Turner-Muhammad was a 4* recruit, so I'm not gonna count him out.

Might be wishful thinking, but I want so badly for coach Reynolds to blackmail Anderson into getting Josh Pakola on the DL. Will he be a good, big OLB (helpful for nickel sets in case the opponent runs)? For sure. But there's a logjam there, especially if Aeneas DiCosmo moves over or Herron/one of the RS frosh (have heard tentative good things about Loa Kaufusi already) emerges as a capable backup behind Toohill/Fox^2/Reid. Put him where we need him most.

RE: Bowl projections -- Sinclair - ADPinWDC - 07-22-2019

TOTALLY AGREE ON SINCLAIR -- I hope he gets a shot at Safety right away, where we are weakest.
As you noted, he has more speed than typical LB.

He played LB in H.S., and like Owen Marecic, he played tough both ways.
His highlight film is SICK; his closing speed would make a firetruck envious. Plays like a BULL.
https://www.hudl.com/video/3/4560059/5bb1ab187bd2a308e4410e3c
Just get him on the field.