The CardBoard
WBB: Stanford 91 Washington 54 - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: WBB: Stanford 91 Washington 54 (/thread-17179.html)

Pages: 1 2

RE: WBB: Stanford 91 Washington 54 - crackpot - 01-19-2019

(01-19-2019, 12:46 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  
(01-19-2019, 12:23 PM)81alum Wrote:  On the basis of our 37 point win over Washington, our RPI fell from 2 to 4.   I guess that is what playing a weak team does to you.  And of course the limits of the RPI number.

Margin of victory does not affect RPI.  Just your opponents record, and their opponents record, plus your own.

BC

...so Tennessee and Gonzaga haven't helped, either. Beating Oregon would, though...

RE: WBB: Stanford 91 Washington 54 - BostonCard - 01-20-2019

Beating any team helps.  Playing Oregon helps, because they have a good record.  But as far as RPI goes, besting Oregon and losing to OSU is the same as beating OSU and losing to Oregon.

So the best is just to beat everyone.

BC

RE: WBB: Stanford 91 Washington 54 - BobK - 01-21-2019

We are now 3 in RPI
ASU best Oregon state. That sure helps

Utah has now lost two starters.

RE: WBB: Stanford 91 Washington 54 - 2006alum - 01-21-2019

Last night showed how much OSU lost with Tudor's injury. Among the top 10-15 teams, I really can't think of a bigger bench presence than Tudor, who was a sixth woman if ever there was one. ASU win over OSU could be pivotal for the conference championship race, and puts Oregon and us in the driver's seat; that February Oregon at the Farm game could very well decide the regular season champion. For OSU to get back in the race, they'll likely need to beat Oregon on both ends of their home-and-away, which seems unlikely without Tudor and with OSU's weak post presence. I don't see Oregon losing to anyone else on their schedule other than us, and I'd give them the edge against us even though we host, because Sabally + the addition of Boley has given them serious scoring threats at positions 1-5. Their bench isn't as deep, but with all our injuries and Lexie's slow resumption of form, I think right now we're playing with roughly equal active rotations, with our bench a bit deeper and their starting five a bit stronger.

RE: WBB: Stanford 91 Washington 54 - crackpot - 01-21-2019

Oregon gets to play at ASU for ASU's Senior Day. That should be fun.

RE: WBB: Stanford 91 Washington 54 - M T - 01-21-2019

(01-21-2019, 10:30 AM)BobK Wrote:  We are now 3 in RPI
ASU best Oregon state. That sure helps

Utah has now lost two starters.

NCAA has us 4th in RPI  today.   Maybe  you looked before the end of our game?

I was going to say that who wins any non-Stanford PAC-12 game doesn't affect our RPI, but I realized we play ASU twice and OSU only once in the regular season, so I guess it does matter a little bit.  Let's see... Our opponents will have one more win, but what about our opponents' opponents?  (But, if I'm correct, the outcomes of any (non-Stanford)  PAC-12 rival game, say, the Arizona vs ASU games doesn't affect our RPI.   But the USC-ASU result may have effects on the opponents' opponents' record, or does it?)



If I understand it properly, WarrenNolan.com indicates that  if RPI were a perfect predictor at the time of each game (implying we lose twice to Oregon, once in the conference season & once in the conf. tourney), our RPI will wind up as 5th.  I'd think this means that if Oregon & Stanford split (with no other losses), we may both be in the top 4 RPI.  (This is all so muddy... In their predictions, they have UConn beating Louisville at Louisville (with a higher RPI for UConn at the time), but Louisville winds up higher in the RPI.  UConn doesn't lose any more games,  but their RPI slides so it winds up lower than Louisville even though(if) Louisville loses that game.)


IF (and that's a big IF),  Oregon & Stanford finish the regular season with the only loss for either being between them, the loser would likely face opponents in the conference tourney with a slightly better record.  Sorta buffers the loss as far as RPI is concerned.

RE: WBB: Stanford 91 Washington 54 - M T - 01-21-2019

(01-21-2019, 10:52 AM)2006alum Wrote:  Last night showed how much OSU lost with Tudor's injury. Among the top 10-15 teams, I really can't think of a bigger bench presence than Tudor, who was a sixth woman if ever there was one. ASU win over OSU could be pivotal for the conference championship race, and puts Oregon and us in the driver's seat; that February Oregon at the Farm game could very well decide the regular season champion. For OSU to get back in the race, they'll likely need to beat Oregon on both ends of their home-and-away, which seems unlikely without Tudor and with OSU's weak post presence. I don't see Oregon losing to anyone else on their schedule other than us, and I'd give them the edge against us even though we host, because Sabally + the addition of Boley has given them serious scoring threats at positions 1-5. Their bench isn't as deep, but with all our injuries and Lexie's slow resumption of form, I think right now we're playing with roughly equal active rotations, with our bench a bit deeper and their starting five a bit stronger.

It is difficult to use stats to compare Oregon and Stanford.  Both have 1 dominant and 2 really good players.  Their top 3 score  0.596 pts/minute while Stanford's score 0.564 pt/minute (fewer minutes as well).  Both opponents' scores are about the same, but Oregon plays their starters more (affecting opponents' scores).  Stanford's injuries (extensive time out for Lexie & Maya, along with the loss of Nadia) muddies the stats as predictors. As Lexie regressed, will Nadia?  I think Hebard can be shut down but Sabally is harder & Ionescu is nearly impossible.  I think Stanford, individually & as a playing unit, is improving faster so I'm glad the game isn't until February.

I'm assuming Maya is back and playing close to her prior form.  Personally, if I had to bet, I'd give a slight edge to Oregon in early February on a neutral court, but a better edge to Stanford in early March & even better on April 5 or 7th, should it come to that.  Certainly, Stanford has the depth so if some player is off a bit (a cold or tweaked ankle), it hurts Stanford less.  But, it may all come down to the 3-point shots
O: 46.6%, 40.4%, 40.9%, 43.7%;
S: 50.5%, 39.8%, 36.4%, 37.7%, 39.1%,
and offensive rebounds (also pretty even).

Stanford challenging run is coming up:        Col., Utah, Cal, Cal,        OSU, Ore, UCLA, USC, Az, ASU
Oregon challenging run is delayed a week: Utah, Col,  Cal, Stanford, OSU, OSU, UCLA, USC, Az, ASU
(Is it better for Oregon/OSU that they play these teams a week after Stanford/Cal play them?  I think one advantage is that Stanford gets a relatively easy week (Wash. schools) before the PAC-12 tourney:  rest, a chance to play specific sets of players together,  or work on specific parts of the game)