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The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - Printable Version

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Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - Mick - 12-16-2017

(12-16-2017, 09:02 AM)Goose link Wrote:[quote author=Mick link=topic=18364.msg218367#msg218367 date=1513438431]
We know he loves to compete, and we know that he's a first round draft pick.  At that level, every incremental pick is worth a lot of money.  The total contract of the first selection was $30.427 mms.  Each succeeding pick in the first five was about $1 mms. less than the others over the life of the contract, then a $3 mms. drop to #6, and another $2.5 mms. drop to #7 and a $2 mms. drop to #8 (CMAC).  The #10 selection got $16 mms., the #32 selection got roughly half of that.
Rosen has somewhat of a conflict of interest. On the one hand, he wants to make as much money as possible. On the other hand, he doesn't want to go to Cleveland  :). Probably no way to control his destiny here, unless he pulls an Elway somehow. Darnold is also an interesting case. Most people think he would benefit from returning to U$C. However, that might put him in danger of being drafted by a real bad team the year after. Maybe if he goes this year he is the 3rd QB drafted and has some hope of not getting forced to play behind a real bad OL. How much is that worth? It will be interesting to see what he does as well.
[/quote]

I don't think the team matters as much as the money at that level.  If he was given the choice between $8 million and the Patriots and $32 million and the Browns, I think he'd take the Browns...particularly if he knew he could get out after five years. Rosen could be a restricted free agent after three years, ready to entertain qualifying offers.  The Browns (or another team) could designate him the franchise player for a very expensive amount.  Only eight of 32 teams in 2017 designated a franchise player, incidentally.

I think he wants the most money now, then will target his favored team later in his career.

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - Spiny_Norman - 12-16-2017

(12-16-2017, 11:01 AM)Langdude link Wrote:Who are all the guys who have left after their junior year? I am not talking about Andrew Luck or David DeCastro who left with a year of eligibility remaining but were academic seniors, but guys who left after their academic junior years... There haven't been a lot.

(Stars represent non-redshirt years.)

Andrus Peat***
Solomon Thomas**
Alex Carter***
Christian McCaffrey***
Bob Whitfield***
Austin Hooper**

Others?

-m.

I believe that Teyo Johnson and Kwame Harris left after their true junior years. 

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - Nan3cy - 12-16-2017

I had dinner last night with a faculty member who has what I consider to be impeccable Athletic Department connections/sources. He's fully convinced that Bryce is gone.

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - Langdude - 12-16-2017

(12-16-2017, 01:23 PM)Spiny_Norman link Wrote:[quote author=Langdude link=topic=18364.msg218379#msg218379 date=1513447311]
Who are all the guys who have left after their junior year? I am not talking about Andrew Luck or David DeCastro who left with a year of eligibility remaining but were academic seniors, but guys who left after their academic junior years... There haven't been a lot.

(Stars represent non-redshirt years.)

Andrus Peat***
Solomon Thomas**
Alex Carter***
Christian McCaffrey***
Bob Whitfield***
Austin Hooper**

Others?

-m.

I believe that Teyo Johnson and Kwame Harris left after their true junior years.
[/quote]

Thanks, Spiny. Confirmed. Teyo redshirted, Kwame did not. Added above.

-m.

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - Mick - 12-16-2017

(12-16-2017, 10:34 AM)VFRing98 link Wrote:[quote author=Mick link=topic=18364.msg218367#msg218367 date=1513438431]
[quote author=Langdude link=topic=18364.msg218316#msg218316 date=1513367979]
[quote author=JPRI link=topic=18364.msg218313#msg218313 date=1513367065]
Interesting that Josh Rosen, who many seem to think is a self-centered jerk, has said he is looking forward to playing one more game with his teammates, even though he may well be the first QB picked in the draft.

Say what you want about that dude, but he loves to compete.

-m.
[/quote]

Kansas State has the #97 ranked NCAA defense, giving up 432 yards per game.  I imagine Josh is going to have a monster day.

We know he loves to compete, and we know that he's a first round draft pick.  At that level, every incremental pick is worth a lot of money.  The total contract of the first selection was $30.427 mms.  Each succeeding pick in the first five was about $1 mms. less than the others over the life of the contract, then a $3 mms. drop to #6, and another $2.5 mms. drop to #7 and a $2 mms. drop to #8 (CMAC).  The #10 selection got $16 mms., the #32 selection got roughly half of that.

I imagine Rosen wants to be in the top 1/3 very badly.  UCLA's passing offense is ranked fifth in the country behind (in order) Okla St, Wash St., Oklahoma (and Mayfield) and New Mexico.

Rosen's body of work this year was amazing.  No way he drops out of the first round.  But where he goes in the first round?  That's up to the GMs who will be watching his bowl game very closely.
[/quote]

Do you really think GMs need a bowl game, or another game, to assess Rosen?

If his opponent’s pass defense is as bad as the stats indicate, the bowl game will illuminate nothing about his NFL potential.
[/quote]

Yes I do, for three reasons:

1)  In the latter half of the season, Rosen had poor games against Arizona (19.8 AQBR) and Washington (41.4) and a game in which he didn't play.  His best game by far was  the second game of the season against Hawaii, which almost doesn't count.  He did well in his last two games, a 79.2 against USC, and a 74.0 against Ca.l.  He's thrown 9 TDs and 2 INTs in the last five games of the season; in the first seven games, he was 17 and 8.  He still doesn't have an annual AQBR as high as his freshman year (68.4).  He took a dip last year into the high 50s, and is now a 67.2.  If you go by flat, traditional quarterback rating (versus the ESPN numbers that I referred to earlier), Rosen is the #30 rated QB, and Mayfield is #1, and there's at least a dozen Power 5 QBs in between them.  So if I'm a GM, I wonder how much upside there is.  I probably wonder less if he blows the doors off in a bowl game.

2)  Supposedly, Rosen has been assessed as a first round draft choice.  He's not injured.  If he decides to sit out against the 95th ranked defense, those GMs may question his credentials.

3)  While I agree that the combine is terrific for receivers and running backs, the way a QB handles himself in a game is critically important.  The GMs will judge Rosen far more on his game performance.  For example, he's been sacked 26 times this season, almost as much as the last two seasons combined (13 and 15). 

I think Rosen needs to clear up a lot of questions, and this is his opportunity.  I don't think Bryce needs to clear up any questions at all.

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - VFRing98 - 12-16-2017

The guy has already thrown a zillion passes against all kinds of defenses. 35 more against a crap team aren’t gonna show anything more than what’s already been shown.

I’m not advocating he sit out. I’m just saying any GM who is waiting on a bowl game to decide on Rosen seems misguided. Or lost.

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - Beeg_Dawg - 12-16-2017

(12-15-2017, 02:34 PM)Trevmiesterj link Wrote:I am intrigued by this weekends Las Vegas Bowl, which a Duck friend is dubbing "The Payback Bowl".  Upon mentioning that Royce Freeman was sitting it out, his response was that he was looking forward to watching his backup Kani Benoit playing.  I think that's the best attitude to take in these situations.

What is your Duck friend saying now? Looks like Boise State was the team paying back the cheap shot punch.

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - dabigv13 - 12-16-2017

I was surprised by that result; Oregon with Herbert is a different team I thought. But hey, bowl games ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - BostonCard - 12-16-2017

(12-15-2017, 02:34 PM)Trevmiesterj link Wrote:I am intrigued by this weekends Las Vegas Bowl, which a Duck friend is dubbing "The Payback Bowl".  Upon mentioning that Royce Freeman was sitting it out, his response was that he was looking forward to watching his backup Kani Benoit playing.  I think that's the best attitude to take in these situations.

Benoit had 8 carries for 11 yards.  Ooooof.

BC

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - JohnR34231 - 12-17-2017

(12-16-2017, 05:16 PM)VFRing98 link Wrote:The guy has already thrown a zillion passes against all kinds of defenses. 35 more against a crap team aren’t gonna show anything more than what’s already been shown.

I’m not advocating he sit out. I’m just saying any GM who is waiting on a bowl game to decide on Rosen seems misguided. Or lost.

I would tend to agree. If a GM still has questions about Rosen, I'm not sure how he performs in a minor bowl game against a weak defense will (or at least should) clear them up.

Here's an article on the trend of NFL hopefuls sitting out what they consider to be minor bowl games to avoid the risk of injury.

http://newsok.com/dont-blame-connor-williams-deshon-elliott-for-skipping-texas-bowl-game/article/5576265

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - phxfan - 12-17-2017

Just wondering why players think it's worth the risk to play in the all-star games?  They are certainly meaningless by any standard. I would rather watch a player in a "real game" than an artificial environment.

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - JohnR34231 - 12-17-2017

(12-16-2017, 05:43 PM)dabigv link Wrote:I was surprised by that result; Oregon with Herbert is a different team I thought. But hey, bowl games ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you watched the game (particularly the first half) I think you would conclude it is something that Herbert should leave off his 2018 H.eisman resume.

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - Mick - 12-17-2017

(12-17-2017, 04:46 AM)JPRI link Wrote:[quote author=VFRing98 link=topic=18364.msg218432#msg218432 date=1513469776]
The guy has already thrown a zillion passes against all kinds of defenses. 35 more against a crap team aren’t gonna show anything more than what’s already been shown.

I’m not advocating he sit out. I’m just saying any GM who is waiting on a bowl game to decide on Rosen seems misguided. Or lost.

I would tend to agree. If a GM still has questions about Rosen, I'm not sure how he performs in a minor bowl game against a weak defense will (or at least should) clear them up.

Here's an article on the trend of NFL hopefuls sitting out what they consider to be minor bowl games to avoid the risk of injury.

http://newsok.com/dont-blame-connor-williams-deshon-elliott-for-skipping-texas-bowl-game/article/5576265
[/quote]

I disagree completely, and I don't think you understand the point I'm trying to make.  GMs don't assess quarterbacks in a vacuum, they assess QBs against each other, AND in context.  Recency counts.

The first point is that this is a quarterback-heavy draft.  From the Pac-12 alone, you have Darnold, Rosen, Falk and Browning.  Browning hasn't had a great year, but his rating last year eclipses all of the pac-12 QBs.  His bowl game will be important.  Falk had the worst rating of his four years, but decent in the pac-12.  A great game against Michigan State could really elevate his stock.  Darnold was the best in the Pac-12. 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/conferences/statistics/player/_/id/9/pac-12-conference

The second point is that Rosen isn't all that great by the numbers across the QB skills.  Outside of the Pac-12, you have Voldemort winner Mayfield and a host of other strong quarterbacks.  In fact, Rosen is ranked #41 using ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating calculator.

http://www.espn.com/ncf/qbr

Purely as a passer, Rosen is still #26 in the NCAA:  http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/8

The third point is that Rosen doesn't bounce back well from injuries.  Against Washington, he had a concussion as he was sacked four times in the first half.  He had a cut on his left (non-throwing) hand that same game, and he played between poor and mediocre for a month after that.  His last two games against USC and Ca.l he returned to form.  Prior to the injuries, he was leading the conference in every passing category.  He also missed the final six games of 2016 with a shoulder injury.  UCLA went 1-5 in that span, indicating the importance of Rosen to the team.  And in his last game against C.al, he was sacked three times in the first half, and was in street clothes in the second half.  If I'm a GM or personnel exec, I have major questions about his durability.

The fourth point is that twenty NFL teams attended the USC vs. UCLA game, won 28-23 by USC.  Both QBs showed well, Rosen as a pure pocket passer.  Here's a quote from a personnel exec who attended the game:  "“They’re two different types of quarterbacks.  One’s the pure pocket passer, and that’s Rosen, and Rosen won the duel between the two. Then, you got the improvisation, the Tony Romo type that Darnold is. Things break down, and he makes a play. And that’s what’s great about him, he can do it from pocket, [or] when things break down around him. And Rosen, when he gets time, it’s pretty. Both of them, I’d say, are going to be good players if they go into good situations . . . Get them with good coaches, they have a chance to be special.”  I think there's still room for analysis for both.

The fifth point is that minor variations  among first round draft selections have brobdingnagian impacts on total compensation, purely apart from the prestige of the high draft selection.  If two QBs get taken ahead of Rosen because enough questions have been raised, that has an enormous impact on his draft position and his compensation.

Sixth point is Chip Kelly.  Rosen's a pocket passer, Chip is not a pocket coach.  Be interesting to see the game plan for the Cactus Bowl.

Seventh point is, the media reported two weeks ago that Rosen is expected to play:
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/news/josh-rosen-ucla-bowl-independence-2018-nfl-draft-cal-game/1tshkh963ebj91k5o2ayvhriuf

A bowl game is a player's last chance to shine in game competition in front of scouts.  Everyone knew that Solomon Thomas was going to be a high draft pick.  Until the Sun Bowl against #45 offense North Carolina when he was named MVP and had seven tackles, five solos, one sack and two tackles for loss.  Until then, no one expected Thomas would be the #3 overall draft pick.  Here was the thinking about Thomas prior to the Bowl game and combine; e.g., most frustrating prospect on the board:

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/4/11/15162716/solomon-thomas-scouting-report-breakdown-2017-nfl-draft

Yes, Kansas State is not a world beater, but neither is UCLA.  UCLA is a two- to three-point underdog in the Cactus Bowl (f/k/a the Copper Bowl, the Insight.com bowl, the Insight Bowl, the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl and finally the Cactus Bowl), and the O/U is 63.5 points, so a shooting match is expected.  Both teams are negative against the spread this year, but UCLA is 4-1-1 on road or neutral turf on the over.

Kansas State's defense is #59 in points given up, and #97 in yards.  UCLA is #122 in yards given up, and #117 in ppg.  This is going to be the shootout's shootout.  The only reason the O/U is so low is because KSU plays a slowdown offense.

Rosen doesn't have to declare for the draft until 1/15/18.  Plenty of time to decide if the bowl game helps or hurts.

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - JohnR34231 - 12-17-2017

(12-17-2017, 12:47 PM)Mick link Wrote:[quote author=JPRI link=topic=18364.msg218453#msg218453 date=1513511167]
[quote author=VFRing98 link=topic=18364.msg218432#msg218432 date=1513469776]
The guy has already thrown a zillion passes against all kinds of defenses. 35 more against a crap team aren’t gonna show anything more than what’s already been shown.

I’m not advocating he sit out. I’m just saying any GM who is waiting on a bowl game to decide on Rosen seems misguided. Or lost.

I would tend to agree. If a GM still has questions about Rosen, I'm not sure how he performs in a minor bowl game against a weak defense will (or at least should) clear them up.

Here's an article on the trend of NFL hopefuls sitting out what they consider to be minor bowl games to avoid the risk of injury.

http://newsok.com/dont-blame-connor-williams-deshon-elliott-for-skipping-texas-bowl-game/article/5576265
[/quote]

I disagree completely, and I don't think you understand the point I'm trying to make.  GMs don't assess quarterbacks in a vacuum, they assess QBs against each other, AND in context.  Recency counts.

The first point is that this is a quarterback-heavy draft.  From the Pac-12 alone, you have Darnold, Rosen, Falk and Browning.  Browning hasn't had a great year, but his rating last year eclipses all of the pac-12 QBs.  His bowl game will be important.  Falk had the worst rating of his four years, but decent in the pac-12.  A great game against Michigan State could really elevate his stock.  Darnold was the best in the Pac-12. 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/conferences/statistics/player/_/id/9/pac-12-conference

The second point is that Rosen isn't all that great by the numbers across the QB skills.  Outside of the Pac-12, you have    winner Mayfield and a host of other strong quarterbacks.  In fact, Rosen is ranked #41 using ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating calculator.

http://www.espn.com/ncf/qbr

Purely as a passer, Rosen is still #26 in the NCAA:  http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/8

The third point is that Rosen doesn't bounce back well from injuries.  Against Washington, he had a concussion as he was sacked four times in the first half.  He had a cut on his left (non-throwing) hand that same game, and he played between poor and mediocre for a month after that.  His last two games against U$C and Ca.l he returned to form.  Prior to the injuries, he was leading the conference in every passing category.  He also missed the final six games of 2016 with a shoulder injury.  UCLA went 1-5 in that span, indicating the importance of Rosen to the team.  And in his last game against C.al, he was sacked three times in the first half, and was in street clothes in the second half.  If I'm a GM or personnel exec, I have major questions about his durability.

The fourth point is that twenty NFL teams attended the U$C vs. UCLA game, won 28-23 by U$C.  Both QBs showed well, Rosen as a pure pocket passer.  Here's a quote from a personnel exec who attended the game:  "“They’re two different types of quarterbacks.  One’s the pure pocket passer, and that’s Rosen, and Rosen won the duel between the two. Then, you got the improvisation, the Tony Romo type that Darnold is. Things break down, and he makes a play. And that’s what’s great about him, he can do it from pocket, [or] when things break down around him. And Rosen, when he gets time, it’s pretty. Both of them, I’d say, are going to be good players if they go into good situations . . . Get them with good coaches, they have a chance to be special.”  I think there's still room for analysis for both.

The fifth point is that minor variations  among first round draft selections have of exceedingly large proportions impacts on total compensation, purely apart from the prestige of the high draft selection.  If two QBs get taken ahead of Rosen because enough questions have been raised, that has an enormous impact on his draft position and his compensation.

Sixth point is Chip Kelly.  Rosen's a pocket passer, Chip is not a pocket coach.  Be interesting to see the game plan for the Cactus Bowl.

Seventh point is, the media reported two weeks ago that Rosen is expected to play:
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/news/josh-rosen-ucla-bowl-independence-2018-nfl-draft-ןɐɔ-game/1tshkh963ebj91k5o2ayvhriuf

A bowl game is a player's last chance to shine in game competition in front of scouts.  Everyone knew that Solomon Thomas was going to be a high draft pick.  Until the Sun Bowl against #45 offense North Carolina when he was named MVP and had seven tackles, five solos, one sack and two tackles for loss.  Until then, no one expected Thomas would be the #3 overall draft pick.  Here was the thinking about Thomas prior to the Bowl game and combine; e.g., most frustrating prospect on the board:

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/4/11/15162716/solomon-thomas-scouting-report-breakdown-2017-nfl-draft

Yes, Kansas State is not a world beater, but neither is UCLA.  UCLA is a two- to three-point underdog in the Cactus Bowl (f/k/a the Copper Bowl, the Insight.com bowl, the Insight Bowl, the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl and finally the Cactus Bowl), and the O/U is 63.5 points, so a shooting match is expected.  Both teams are negative against the spread this year, but UCLA is 4-1-1 on road or neutral turf on the over.

Kansas State's defense is #59 in points given up, and #97 in yards.  UCLA is #122 in yards given up, and #117 in ppg.  This is going to be the shootout's shootout.  The only reason the O/U is so low is because KSU plays a slowdown offense.

Rosen doesn't have to declare for the draft until 1/15/18.  Plenty of time to decide if the bowl game helps or hurts.
[/quote]

OK, that's fine. Most of the draft projections I've seen have Rosen as the first or second pick. Assuming those people know what they are talking about, I suppose he could reinforce that with a great performance or hurt it with a poor one.

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - Stymie - 12-17-2017

It's easy to dis Rosen with mass metrics and armchair psychiatry, but from all the mock drafts I've seen he's #1 overall on a couple and # 3 overall on another.  From what I saw of him this autumn (and last year), I'd agree.  But we shall see.

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - CowboyIndian - 12-17-2017

UCLA’s OL did Rosen no favors.

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - washingtonismoney - 12-17-2017

Yeah, Rosen had a tough ride at UCLA: terrible OL, only solid-at-best skill guys. While he's not the most overwhelming NFL prospect I've ever seen -- and I prefer Darnold at the top of the draft to Josh -- I think he could be a good one in the pros. Situation dependent, of course.

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - Mick - 12-17-2017

Will he be as good as Garoppolo?  106.8 NFL rating today, 381 yards passing, 31/43; 1 TD, 0 INTs, 3 sacks (26 blitzes of 46 rushes, with no ground game).

Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - Nan3cy - 12-18-2017

(12-17-2017, 10:50 PM)Mick link Wrote:Will he be as good as Garoppolo?  106.8 NFL rating today, 381 yards passing, 31/43; 1 TD, 0 INTs, 3 sacks (26 blitzes of 46 rushes, with no ground game).

Do they rate field goal kickers? SF's must have had a record rating today...


Re: The CMac Effect: More players sitting out bowl games - Mick - 12-18-2017

(12-18-2017, 12:45 AM)Nan3cy link Wrote:[quote author=Mick link=topic=18364.msg218509#msg218509 date=1513576204]
Will he be as good as Garoppolo?  106.8 NFL rating today, 381 yards passing, 31/43; 1 TD, 0 INTs, 3 sacks (26 blitzes of 46 rushes, with no ground game).

Do they rate field goal kickers? SF's must have had a record rating today...
[/quote]

I don't think they rate kickers.  I do know the following:

* Gould made six field goals.  The NFL record is eight, and four other kickers made seven, so Gould is tied for 6th most in NFL history.
* He put six of seven kickoffs into non-returnable territory.  Not too bad...
* The record for most field goals in a season is 40. Gould has 34 (he's 34 for 36) with two games to play.
* Last night, he made four field goals of 45 yards or longer.  Is that a record for most FGs of 45 yards or more in a game?
* He's made 15 field goals in the last three games.  Is that the most field goals over a three game stretch in NFL history?