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Re: Now which bowl? - CTcard - 11-27-2016

(11-27-2016, 02:55 PM)larkinforever link Wrote:FWIW gostanford.com also says Sun Bowl most likely. May just be reading Wilner; who knows.

Quote:Stanford has won every regular-season finale since 2008 and is 6-0 in such contests under Shaw. The Cardinal advances to a bowl for a school-record eighth consecutive season and will learn its assignment – most likely the Sun Bowl on Dec. 30 in El Paso, but with the Foster Farms, Holiday, and Las Vegas bowls in the running as well.

http://www.gostanford.com/news/2016/11/26/football-big-finish-for-mccaffrey-cardinal.aspx

While I certainly cannot tell how they came to claim the Sun Bowl is the most likely, it kind of reads to me that they simply noted Stanford finished with the fifth best conference record and the Sun Bowl is nominally fifth in the Pac 12 bowl pecking order. Though I suppose it is possible that they know something about actual negotiations.

Given that it looks at least likely that the Pac 12 gets two New Year's Six participants, that nominally moves everyone up one, and the Foster Farms Bowl would be the slotted bowl for Stanford.

Most of these complex analysis of which teams which bowls would prefer are just talking points for fans and columnists before any real information emerges. The one issue that the lesser bowls do clearly care about is not liking repeat attendees.  [Take note that many (non-Pac 12) conferences have bowl agreements where the conferences get to make the choices rather than the bowls, and the one restriction concerns limited-repeat clauses.]

The biggest relevant repeater teams would be:
Alamo - none
Holiday - U$C past two years
Foster Farms - Stanford two years ago
Sun  - WSU last year
Las Vegas - Utah last two years
Cactus Bowl - won't fill the slot unless a miracle happens for cal.

So, if UW wins the championship I'd guess:
CFP - UW
Rose - U$C
Alamo - Colorado
Holiday - WSU
Foster Farms - Stanford
Sun - Utah


* Though the CFP committee does have a bit of a track record of not dropping championship game losers much.
**I could see the Holiday opting for us over WSU due to a better overall record and higher ranking. And perhaps the Foster Farms would lobby for the same to avoid the sort-of repeat. Of course if it came to it, Foster Farms might opt for Utah over us but I'd be surprised if they'd really want a team with a worse record, worse conference record, and finishing on a two game losing streak.


Re: Now which bowl? - CrazedZooChimp - 11-28-2016

(11-27-2016, 03:27 PM)ChicagoVisitor link Wrote:I was hoping for 3 Pac12 teams in the NY6 bowls. But unfortunately FSU beat FL. I think that means 2 ACC, there'll be Okla and Okla St from the Big12, Western Michigan, and I guess the SEC will send a team to the Sugar Bowl. That's 7 which leaves 5 slots for the Big10 and Pac12. Hard to see the Big10 not getting 3 teams in the NY6 bowls. It'll be their conf champ game winner, along with Ohio St and Michigan.

Anyone know off the top of their head what the tie-ins are for the other NY6 bowls? I know, for example, the Sugar Bowl has a tie in with the SEC like we do with the Rose, but I'm not sure how many others there are. It certainly seems likely that $C and Colorado will both be in the top-12 in the CFP rankings at the end of the season. The SEC won't have anyone in the top-12 outside of Bama, but will still get the Sugar Bowl slot. It would seem unlikely they would get a third unless they have another tie-in. Similar to the ACC, assuming Clemson makes the CFP they should get 2 because of the tie-in with the Orange bowl. I'm not sure the Big-12 would get another spot (remember one of OU and OSU will lose next week), so I think it would come down to the a fourth Big-10 team or $C. The Big-10 probably gets that last spot, but it's not impossible...

Re: Now which bowl? - CTcard - 11-28-2016

(11-28-2016, 12:03 AM)CrazedZooChimp link Wrote:Anyone know off the top of their head what the tie-ins are for the other NY6 bowls?

This year ...
Fiesta, Peach - semifinals
Rose - Big Ten #1 versus Pac 12 #1
Orange - ACC #1 versus top rated of Big Ten #2 or SEC #2
Sugar - SEC #1 versus Big 12 #1
Cotton - Group of Five #1 versus at large

Re: Now which bowl? - fullmetal - 11-28-2016

I would love to see U$C as an at-large if that means Stanford goes to the Alamo Bowl...!  Also, I think the Big 12 #2 in the Alamo Bowl would be a fun opponent...

Iowa fans seem to be dismissing any thought of traveling to a bowl where they would have to face Stanford this season.  I'm sure some will say that it's because of the band...I'm sure it's really that they don't want to be embarrassed by CMac for two years straight.  Giving up a TD on your opponent's opening play and then just losing it from there...yeah, that could be traumatic.

Re: Now which bowl? - Phogge - 11-28-2016

San Antonio, Vegas, San Diego for fans' fun. El Paso too close to the hell hole of Juarez.

For fans not traveling I'd like the best matchup. Certainly not Iowa.

Re: Now which bowl? - Stymie - 11-28-2016

I won't be able to get to any of the venues, but I have a soft spot for the Sun Bowl, having attended it in 1977 with seven Stanford friends.  New Year's Eve in Juarez was one of the highlights of my early adulthood.  Of course, I fear that el Ciudad has been yuppified/gentrified  over the past 39 years....

Re: Now which bowl? - BostonCard - 11-28-2016

Tangentially related, but fivethirtyeight calculates teams' probabilities of making the college football playoffs.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

You can click or unclick whether they win or lose their next game to see how it impacts their probabilities.  Right now UW has a 66% chance of making the playoffs.  That rises to 95% if they win their P12 Championship game against Colorado (they are given a 68% chance of winning).

Even if Penn State wins the BigTen championship, Ohio State has a higher chance of going to the playoff.

BC



Re: Now which bowl? - Mick - 11-28-2016

(11-28-2016, 12:45 PM)Phogge link Wrote:San Antonio, Vegas, San Diego for fans' fun. El Paso too close to the hell hole of Juarez.

For fans not traveling I'd like the best matchup. Certainly not Iowa.


I hearby swear to attend any bowl with Stanford in it...that isn't played in the state of Texas.

Re: Now which bowl? - Snorlax94 - 11-28-2016

CBS currently projects Stanford to play against Indiana in the Foster Farms Bowl, and Washington State to play Minnesota in the Holiday Bowl.

I can see why the Holiday Bowl might pass up Stanford if the opponent is Iowa, but otherwise, I cannot imagine why they'd pick Washington State over Stanford.

Wasu lost two consecutive games to end the season, ended the season by getting blown out at home, and isn't even ranked. Stanford is one of the greatest marquee programs(in terms of recent NY6 bowls), is ranked, and has the most exciting player in all of college football.

And then the thought that both the Holiday and Foster Farms could pass up Stanford so that Stanford would drop all the way to the Sun mystifies me even more. I looked up attendance numbers and actually the 2014 FF game had (slightly) more sold tickets than any other recent game. Plus, does anyone know how much ticket sales matter relative to TV viewership? I'd think Stanford would command a lot more interest.

I know, I'm preaching to fellow believers, but man, it still bugs me!


Re: Now which bowl? - stupac2 - 11-28-2016

(11-28-2016, 02:12 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Tangentially related, but fivethirtyeight calculates teams' probabilities of making the college football playoffs.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

You can click or unclick whether they win or lose their next game to see how it impacts their probabilities.  Right now UW has a 66% chance of making the playoffs.  That rises to 95% if they win their P12 Championship game against Colorado (they are given a 68% chance of winning).

Even if Penn State wins the BigTen championship, Ohio State has a higher chance of going to the playoff.

BC

The problem with their model is that they're trying to model something when we don't know the parameters. Originally it was based on movement in the Coaches' poll, but they've tweaked it based on the committee polls we've had since. Of course, this gives us essentially no information on how to rate OSU's chances, they're in a situation that hasn't happened during the previous two years. The committee explicitly gives weight to conference championships, but we don't really know how much since it hasn't mattered.

You could argue that there's information in the way they've treated the one conference winner left out so far, but I'm not sure since once you're past 4 the rankings don't really matter. In 2014 there was the whole "Big 12 doesn't really have a winner" fiasco, but they were still #5 and #6, and last year Iowa was ranked ahead of us, but like I said I'm not sure they were really the first one out. If all the favorites win, which is always a big if, then I don't really see how you pass over anyone to put OSU in. Every other candidate would have the same number of wins, a similar SOS, and would actually have won their conference. And it's not like OSU is playing like a world-beater team who just got unlucky, they've gone to OT twice and have had close games against some bad teams.

I'm really curious to see what happens. I really hope that OSU gets left out and think they will (barring upsets, if Colorado or VT win then I don't know), but I seem to be the only person who thinks they're not a lock.

Re: Now which bowl? - DC 86 - 11-28-2016

(11-28-2016, 07:02 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:I'm really curious to see what happens. I really hope that OSU gets left out and think they will (barring upsets, if Colorado or VT win then I don't know), but I seem to be the only person who thinks they're not a lock.
Count me in as agreeing with you; if the favorites win their conference championships I can easily see OSU being left out.

The CFP committee has been consistent about re-evaluating its rankings from scratch every week, as opposed to a team having to lose in order to tumble down. OSU's season is over while the other playoff contenders are playing in conference championships which according to the committee's stated criteria carry significant weight.

Re: Now which bowl? - CTcard - 11-28-2016

(11-28-2016, 07:02 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:If all the favorites win, which is always a big if, then I don't really see how you pass over anyone to put OSU in. Every other candidate would have the same number of wins, a similar SOS, and would actually have won their conference.

I agree overall, including hoping that tOSU gets left off as I think barring something extraordinary, you shouldn't be able to win a national title without winning your conference.

However, a little nuance.
Most other candidates would have the same or more wins, but the Big 12 champ won't and there would be a couple with more losses - which seems to be more what people pay attention to (though not completely clear if "people" includes the committee). So, with all favorites winning we'd have:
Alabama      13-0 in
Clemson      12-1 in
Washington  12-1 in
Wisconsin    11-2  ??
Oklahoma    10-2 out
Ohio State    11-1 ??

So, I would guess it would come down to an internal Big Ten question of tOSU versus either Wisconsin or Penn State. If it's Wisconsin, then I imagine the head to head win might trump the conference championship, and tOSU might get in. If it's Penn State, the championship and head-to-head go the same way, and there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth in State College of Penn State gets dumped for tOSU.

The current line is Wisconsin -2.5, easily the closest line of the championship games. 

Re: Now which bowl? - larkinforever - 11-28-2016

It somehow seems a little less unjust to me to select tOSU over a Wisconsin B10 champ than a Penn St B10 champ, because Wisconsin had a chance to hand tOSU a second loss and didn't get it done, whereas Penn St did its job in the head-to-head with tOSU.

This is, of course, setting aside whether a non-conference champ should be selected over a conference champ from the same conference, which I think is a fairly difficult issue to overcome - I'd have an even bigger issue with a non-conference champ being selected over a conference champ from a different conference.

For all the debates and deliberations, the Committee has actually gotten off easy the first two years of the playoff, having never really been forced to choose between an X+1 loss Power 5 conference champ vs. an X loss Power 5 non-conference champ.

Re: Now which bowl? - CrazedZooChimp - 11-28-2016

(11-28-2016, 03:15 PM)Snorlax94 link Wrote:CBS currently projects Stanford to play against Indiana in the Foster Farms Bowl, and Washington State to play Minnesota in the Holiday Bowl.

I can see why the Holiday Bowl might pass up Stanford if the opponent is Iowa, but otherwise, I cannot imagine why they'd pick Washington State over Stanford.

Wasu lost two consecutive games to end the season, ended the season by getting blown out at home, and isn't even ranked. Stanford is one of the greatest marquee programs(in terms of recent NY6 bowls), is ranked, and has the most exciting player in all of college football.

And then the thought that both the Holiday and Foster Farms could pass up Stanford so that Stanford would drop all the way to the Sun mystifies me even more. I looked up attendance numbers and actually the 2014 FF game had (slightly) more sold tickets than any other recent game. Plus, does anyone know how much ticket sales matter relative to TV viewership? I'd think Stanford would command a lot more interest.

I know, I'm preaching to fellow believers, but man, it still bugs me!

The reason the foster farms would passus over is the same reason we as fans would be more likely to pass it over this year. Bowls tend to try to avoid recent repeats of teams, because it, reasonably, tends to hurt fan attendance (like how I won't go to the sun bowl since I went in 2009, and would only go to the foster farms again because I live here). It doesn't always happen, but it is a factor that would be at play here. True that Stanford is probably more compelling for TV with CMac and being ranked.

Re: Now which bowl? - needle - 11-29-2016

Quote:It somehow seems a little less unjust to me to select tOSU over a Wisconsin B10 champ than a Penn St B10 champ, because Wisconsin had a chance to hand tOSU a second loss and didn't get it done, whereas Penn St did its job in the head-to-head with tOSU.

I happen to disagree, considering the overall seasons put together by Wisconsin and Penn State--most metrics I've seen would say Wisconsin has had the better year--and that Wisconsin lost to Ohio State in overtime (as close as you can get, basically).

If I was on the committee, given their nebulous criteria, I think I'd rank a Big 10-champ Wisconsin more highly than Ohio State. But not so a Big 10-champ Penn State, which I would keep below Ohio State.

My rationale would be that Wisconsin would have played a tougher schedule than Ohio State (this is debatable) and won a conference championship. Even with a victory over Wisconsin, Penn State's schedule just isn't as strong (this is less debatable).

Re: Now which bowl? - OutsiderFan - 11-29-2016

This whole idea of a committee deciding who deserves to play for a championship, without regard to conference championships, is to me outrageous in the context of what sports have always been about.  Win a division championship and you are in the playoffs, period.  Ergo, the winner of Penn State and Wisconsin should be in the College Football playoff, because the Big Ten is the best conference this season by most measures.

The only room the committee really has with four spots for five Power 5 conference teams, is to decide which conference should be left out.  That conference should clearly be the Big 12.  If the committee wants to include a non-conference champion, fine, but that should only be done with an at minimum 6-team format, and if you are going to have 6, it would make a lot more sense to have an 8-team playoff.

What chafes me is that a Wisconsin or Penn State winner being left out will be talked about as outrageous, but it will pale in comparison to how outrageous it was to keep Stanford out of the playoff in 2015.

It would be unfortunate to keep Ohio State out of the playoffs, but it would be an absolute outrage to keep two of three conference champions out of the playoff so non-conference champion Ohio State can be in it.




Re: Now which bowl? - CTcard - 11-29-2016

(11-29-2016, 06:34 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:What chafes me is that a Wisconsin or Penn State winner being left out will be talked about as outrageous, but it will pale in comparison to how outrageous it was to keep Stanford out of the playoff in 2015.

I guess that depends upon what you consider outrageous.

The final cfp rankings last year were:
1. Clemson 13-0
2. Alabama 12-1
3. Michigan State 12-1
4. Oklahoma 12-1
6. Stanford 11-2

Some of us have argued that Stanford wasn't a real sixth, that if say Oklahoma were simply out of the equation that there was a high likliehood that the committee would have reordered conference champ Stanford versus runner up Iowa - but of course nobody can actually know.

If you think the exclusion of Stanford was outrageous, then you are arguing on things like strength of schedule and margin of victory. That might lead you to drop Michigan State though it is not entirely clear.

On the other hand, the more traditional mode of thinking would be if you win more and lose less, you should be rated higher. Stanford clearly was going to lose out on that score.

While I personally believed in the former, it tends to be my way of thinking and it was my team that was going to benefit, I wouldn't quite call following the traditional view of things outrageous.


Re: Now which bowl? - TriangleTree - 11-29-2016

(11-29-2016, 06:34 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:This whole idea of a committee deciding who deserves to play for a championship, without regard to conference championships, is to me outrageous in the context of what sports have always been about.

I agree.
To me the most fundamental issue is not having more than one team from a conference represented in a 4 team playoff.  That's just wrong, unsportmanlike and boring.
I still can't get over the fact that Alabama and LSU were once chosen to play for a national championship.

I could live with a scenario where a conference chooses to send a team other than their "champion" to the playoff. For example, if the Big10 did not feel that PennState or Wisc would make it to the playoffs, they could put forward Ohio State for consideration (i.e. their "championship" criteria for playoff purposes could be who finishes first in the ranking).




Re: Now which bowl? - stupac2 - 11-29-2016

The thing about Stanford last year, in my mind, was that we were clearly better than Iowa, Oklahoma, and MSU, and the results of the bowl games involving the top 6 teams just verified that. The problem is that case was sort of hard to make in a non-homer fashion, and we did have a choke-job late season loss that we shouldn't have.

The question is what the playoff is trying to reward. Traditionally polls are supposed to be about identifying the "best team" (leave aside the fact that they way they work in practice doesn't come close to doing this), but playoffs are typically about rewarding the accomplishment of specific goals (winning a conference/division, having the best record of the remaining teams, etc). The CFP doesn't clearly set about to do either, and we haven't had any test of what they see as their goal until now.

Although, as I said, I'm not sure why everyone is so gaga about OSU anyway, they haven't looked impressive to me at all when I've watched them lately. Then again advanced stats like them, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. (Although F+ actually has Michigan ranked ahead of them.)

Re: Now which bowl? - needle - 11-29-2016

Quote:The question is what the playoff is trying to reward. Traditionally polls are supposed to be about identifying the "best team" (leave aside the fact that they way they work in practice doesn't come close to doing this), but playoffs are typically about rewarding the accomplishment of specific goals (winning a conference/division, having the best record of the remaining teams, etc). The CFP doesn't clearly set about to do either, and we haven't had any test of what they see as their goal until now.

I like how you've stated the question. I had thought it self-evident that, with weekly rankings, the goal is to evaluate good, better and best teams. But maybe it is more about "the accomplishment of specific goals."