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RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-15-2024
(02-15-2024, 06:21 PM)lex24 Wrote:(02-15-2024, 09:15 AM)Mick Wrote: You're right, I quoted the 2022 figure. In 2023, the Padres were 10-28 in one-run games or games that went to extra innings, the worst record since 1935. I'm not sure I'd say that it's irrelevant. I think it speaks to character and stamina and management.
I suspect Chapman and the Giants are far apart. When I read about Chapman's expected deals ($17 mms. to $25 mms. per season), they just don't make any sense. Right now, only two teams are really interested in Chapman. 40 man rosters are open, I suspect a deal will get done within the next week or two. I'd still prefer him over JD Davis, but not at a ridiculous rate.
Bailey does some amazing things defensively (particularly with his arm), and yet...leading the league in both errors by a catcher and passed balls while catching just half the games is...disconcerting.
I think pitching is always a question mark, even if you have Koufax and Drysdale. Injuries, inconsistency, fielding and luck. And our fielding is not great and speed-wise, we don't have Maury Wills. Or even Bump Wills.
Lots of questions. If we get Chapman, a backup SS (who will likely play a lot), and one more FA, I'd feel better.
22 - 34-17 in one run games.
23 - 10-28 in one run games.
Same manager. Perfect illustration of my point - that the “one run” record in a particular season is largely irrelevant to what happens the next season.
"The Padres are such an abject failure they will stand as a monument to what happens when talented individuals do not play team baseball." That's the opening sentence. They didn't play team baseball. Unfortunately their manager couldn't make that happen.
The 2023 Padres Are an Epic Failure
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 02-15-2024
They forgot that signing a bunch of highly paid athletes doesn’t necessarily equate to creating a cohesive ballclub. The old saying “25 cabs for 25 players“ was apt in this instance.
Whose fault? Well, it wasn’t the manager’s. It was the general manager’s. Signing names without regard for fit is a recipe for disaster…….
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 02-16-2024
(02-15-2024, 08:36 PM)Mick Wrote:(02-15-2024, 06:21 PM)lex24 Wrote:(02-15-2024, 09:15 AM)Mick Wrote: You're right, I quoted the 2022 figure. In 2023, the Padres were 10-28 in one-run games or games that went to extra innings, the worst record since 1935. I'm not sure I'd say that it's irrelevant. I think it speaks to character and stamina and management.
I suspect Chapman and the Giants are far apart. When I read about Chapman's expected deals ($17 mms. to $25 mms. per season), they just don't make any sense. Right now, only two teams are really interested in Chapman. 40 man rosters are open, I suspect a deal will get done within the next week or two. I'd still prefer him over JD Davis, but not at a ridiculous rate.
Bailey does some amazing things defensively (particularly with his arm), and yet...leading the league in both errors by a catcher and passed balls while catching just half the games is...disconcerting.
I think pitching is always a question mark, even if you have Koufax and Drysdale. Injuries, inconsistency, fielding and luck. And our fielding is not great and speed-wise, we don't have Maury Wills. Or even Bump Wills.
Lots of questions. If we get Chapman, a backup SS (who will likely play a lot), and one more FA, I'd feel better.
22 - 34-17 in one run games.
23 - 10-28 in one run games.
Same manager. Perfect illustration of my point - that the “one run” record in a particular season is largely irrelevant to what happens the next season.
"The Padres are such an abject failure they will stand as a monument to what happens when talented individuals do not play team baseball." That's the opening sentence. They didn't play team baseball. Unfortunately their manager couldn't make that happen.
The 2023 Padres Are an Epic Failure
Curious Mick. What’s your issue with Melvin?
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-16-2024
(02-16-2024, 08:02 AM)lex24 Wrote: Curious Mick. What’s your issue with Melvin?
We did this dance back in October...
https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=24512&pid=401348&highlight=Kapler+AND+Melvin#pid401348
I'm more anti-Farhan than anti-Melvin. I don't have anything against Melvin. What I really, really like about Melvin is that he's a Cal guy, just like my mom's father. My dad was recruited by Pete Newell the year that Cal won the NCAA in men's basketball. I toured Cal with both my boys and they both were admitted. I would have been DELIGHTED if they had attended Cal (more delighted if they had attended Stanford, but that's the family school...). Maybe it's worth noting that they completed their UC applications but not the Stanford applications, but then they both knew where they were going after Cal's application deadline had passed but before Stanford's admissions deadline had passed. It's one reason why I keep pumping Jeff Kent for the HoF, and I am a brobdingnagian fan of Mark Canha's...I know his family well.
Melvin gets NorCal. I like that. He's a Bay Area guy who grew up here. I like that, too. He played for the Giants and I like that. And he was as successful for the Moneyball A's as anyone could be. He's likeable. He's affable. He's old school and therefore more comfortable for the average fan than the skintight clothes weating, workout nut, tattooed weirdo who led the Giants to 107 wins but put lots of people off, yourself included. Makes me wonder if the Giants would have made the playoffs in the COVID year if Posey had played catcher instead of Joey Bart, Chadwick Tromp and Tyler Heineman. They missed the playoffs by a game. Thanks, Buster.
I like Melvin for his similarities to Bochy. He is a Baby Boomer backup catcher who worked his way up the ranks. He has a lengthy career managing west coast teams. He appears to be liked and admired by the players. He is humble and shifts the spotlight to the players when things are going well, and don't criticize them when things go poorly. And BoMel is very smooth. He knows how to manage up and down (although SDP's GM Ken Rosenthal couldn't stand Melvin to the point that he let him go to a division rival). He's a good manager. But the Giants will need a great manager to get to the postseason.
What I don't care for:
1. Unlike Bochy, Melvin is not proven in the post-season, a lifetime 16-23 postseason record. Lost in the WC or first round six of seven times. That's mainly why I think of Melvin as Bochy-lite.
2. Melvin gets great press and the benefit of the doubt. Everyone extolled Melvin's relationships with Far Eastern players, and he would be critical to land Ohtani and Yamamoto. We didn't get either. We paid double Lee's market value because Farhan needed a win. Ditto Chapman, who played for him for years. Let's get Chapman in the door.
3. Mostly (and this article explains the bulk of it), Melvin had a team full of multiple-year All-Stars, Gold Glove winners, Cy Young winners and a player (Tatis) who didn't fit the prior three descriptions but finished in the top five in MVP voting -- twice. Farhan's team had none of those players, no one who could approach those numbers except a decrepit Crawford (.587 OPS) two years past his prime. As much as you dislike coconut-oil-head, the Giants won 79 games with poor players, injured players and too-old players. Melvin won 82 with an end-to-end All Star team. And the robo-manager has a better career winning percentage than BoMel, and Kapler's worst full year was better than eight of Melvin's 20 season records and his best year was better than...well...20 of Melvin's 20 seasons. By 10 wins.
4. I don't like that Melvin's Seattle team tanked...they went from 93 wins to 63 wins in a single season.
To summarize an earlier post, people treat BoMel like he's the second coming. He's the anti-Kapler...he took a hugely talented San Diego roster and dramatically underachieved whereas Kapler took a no-talent roster and overachieved. They had very similar records. BoMel was a safe, logical pick.
Because BoMel is supposedly such a great manager, I want to see 95+ wins out of him this season.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 02-16-2024
I think you put far too much emphasis on the value of a manager. It is all about the players. Heck, even if they had signed Ohtani, the Giants are not a 95 win team. There are too many holes in the lineup. They are too slow, poor defensively, have no pitching depth, and a relief corps that is suspect.
As currently constructed, they are a 70-75 win team. With Ohtani, they would have bumped to a .500 club.
Melvin brings experience, class and structure to the team. However, until they acquire some talent (or find some gems in their farm system) they will struggle. In summary, I am not suggesting he is at the same level as future HOF managers like Baker or Bochy but I would say he is the right guy for SF at this time.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-16-2024
(02-16-2024, 10:44 AM)Giants Wrote: I think you put far too much emphasis on the value of a manager. It is all about the players. Heck, even if they had signed Ohtani, the Giants are not a 95 win team. There are too many holes in the lineup. They are too slow, poor defensively, have no pitching depth, and a relief corps that is suspect.
As currently constructed, they are a 70-75 win team. With Ohtani, they would have bumped to a .500 club.
Melvin brings experience, class and structure to the team. However, until they acquire some talent (or find some gems in their farm system) they will struggle. In summary, I am not suggesting he is at the same level as future HOF managers like Baker or Bochy but I would say he is the right guy for SF at this time.
Agreed, I think I said in an earlier post that 75 wins was my max expectation -- before adding Soler, Lee, Ray and Murphy. If Kapler won 79, Melvin wouldn't win more than 75. With Soler, Lee, Ray and Murphy, they've filled a lot of holes...and addition by subtraction, losing DeSclafani, Stripling (clubhouse cancer), Haniger, etc.
In a prior post, you wrote that Bob Melvin would be worth 5-7 wins. Last year's Giants under Mr. Coconut Oil won 79. An additional 5-7 wins would imply 84-86 wins, not 70-75, so I'm a bit confused over that. Lex originally estimated 78 wins. Be interesting to see how it plays out.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-16-2024
BTW, FanGraphs projects the Giants at 80 wins, Baseball Prospectus at 81 wins (rounded down from 81.3).
PECOTA Standings - Baseball Prospectus
Depth Charts - Projected Standings | FanGraphs Baseball
FanGraphs has Dodgers at 92 wins, Diamondbacks at 83, Padres at 81, and the Rockies at 64. Top six NL teams are Braves winning the NL East (97), Dodgers winning the NL West (92), Cardinals winning the NL Central (83), and the three wild card teams project to be the Phillies (85), Diamondbacks (83) and Padres or Cubs (81). Giants and Brewers currently projected to finish one game behind the last wild card slot.
Baseball Prospectus is similar. Same three division winners, they project Diamondbacks (85.8), Phillies (83.9) and Mets (83.5). Giants are out by 2.2, at 81.3 projected wins.
Giants #7 in NL in both projections. Presumably Chapman, a backup shortstop and another pitcher would put them over the top.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 02-16-2024
(02-16-2024, 11:29 AM)Mick Wrote:(02-16-2024, 10:44 AM)Giants Wrote: I think you put far too much emphasis on the value of a manager. It is all about the players. Heck, even if they had signed Ohtani, the Giants are not a 95 win team. There are too many holes in the lineup. They are too slow, poor defensively, have no pitching depth, and a relief corps that is suspect.
As currently constructed, they are a 70-75 win team. With Ohtani, they would have bumped to a .500 club.
Melvin brings experience, class and structure to the team. However, until they acquire some talent (or find some gems in their farm system) they will struggle. In summary, I am not suggesting he is at the same level as future HOF managers like Baker or Bochy but I would say he is the right guy for SF at this time.
Agreed, I think I said in an earlier post that 75 wins was my max expectation -- before adding Soler, Lee, Ray and Murphy. If Kapler won 79, Melvin wouldn't win more than 75. With Soler, Lee, Ray and Murphy, they've filled a lot of holes...and addition by subtraction, losing DeSclafani, Stripling (clubhouse cancer), Haniger, etc.
In a prior post, you wrote that Bob Melvin would be worth 5-7 wins. Last year's Giants under Mr. Coconut Oil won 79. An additional 5-7 wins would imply 84-86 wins, not 70-75, so I'm a bit confused over that. Lex originally estimated 78 wins. Be interesting to see how it plays out.
Yep, at the time I wrote that, I was optimistic re: the Giants off-season (and the hiring of Melvin). In hindsight, I should have been more realistic re: the off-season given Zaidi’s track record. Quite frankly, I didn’t think Zaidi would flop two years in a row. By the way, we do agree that Zaidi is a boat anchor weighing down the entire operations group.
I do think Melvin will wring every possible win out of the schedule. However, given the bad hand he has been dealt, I do not see improvement over last year. If anything, the team has regressed. Hence, my revised win total.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-16-2024
(02-16-2024, 01:35 PM)Giants Wrote:(02-16-2024, 11:29 AM)Mick Wrote:(02-16-2024, 10:44 AM)Giants Wrote: I think you put far too much emphasis on the value of a manager. It is all about the players. Heck, even if they had signed Ohtani, the Giants are not a 95 win team. There are too many holes in the lineup. They are too slow, poor defensively, have no pitching depth, and a relief corps that is suspect.
As currently constructed, they are a 70-75 win team. With Ohtani, they would have bumped to a .500 club.
Melvin brings experience, class and structure to the team. However, until they acquire some talent (or find some gems in their farm system) they will struggle. In summary, I am not suggesting he is at the same level as future HOF managers like Baker or Bochy but I would say he is the right guy for SF at this time.
Agreed, I think I said in an earlier post that 75 wins was my max expectation -- before adding Soler, Lee, Ray and Murphy. If Kapler won 79, Melvin wouldn't win more than 75. With Soler, Lee, Ray and Murphy, they've filled a lot of holes...and addition by subtraction, losing DeSclafani, Stripling (clubhouse cancer), Haniger, etc.
In a prior post, you wrote that Bob Melvin would be worth 5-7 wins. Last year's Giants under Mr. Coconut Oil won 79. An additional 5-7 wins would imply 84-86 wins, not 70-75, so I'm a bit confused over that. Lex originally estimated 78 wins. Be interesting to see how it plays out.
Yep, at the time I wrote that, I was optimistic re: the Giants off-season (and the hiring of Melvin). In hindsight, I should have been more realistic re: the off-season given Zaidi’s track record. Quite frankly, I didn’t think Zaidi would flop two years in a row. By the way, we do agree that Zaidi is a boat anchor weighing down the entire operations group.
I do think Melvin will wring every possible win out of the schedule. However, given the bad hand he has been dealt, I do not see improvement over last year. If anything, the team has regressed. Hence, my revised win total.
Got it, and agreed re: Zaidi. Like I originally posted, they fired the wrong guy. I get why Kapler had don't go, I don't get why Farhan had to stay, and I really don't get why he got extended.
BTW, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred has solved the problem for Oakland A's fans losing their team. Just become San Francisco Giants fans. No doubt that will go over well:
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred Oddly Floats Giants As Rooting Option for Athletics Fans
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 02-16-2024
Dodgers at 92???
They are an absolute lock for 100+ (closer to 105 in my opinion)…
UPDATE:
ESPN has posted an article listing LA with a projection of 104.8. That is a lot more realistic than FanGraphs (IMO).
Also, ESPN has SF with a projection of 79.3.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 02-17-2024
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1708102492' Wrote: 1708102492[/url]']
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1708095737' Wrote: 1708095737[/url]']
Curious Mick. What’s your issue with Melvin?
We did this dance back in October...
https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=24512&pid=401348&highlight=Kapler+AND+Melvin#pid401348
I'm more anti-Farhan than anti-Melvin. I don't have anything against Melvin. What I really, really like about Melvin is that he's a Cal guy, just like my mom's father. My dad was recruited by Pete Newell the year that Cal won the NCAA in men's basketball. I toured Cal with both my boys and they both were admitted. I would have been DELIGHTED if they had attended Cal (more delighted if they had attended Stanford, but that's the family school...). Maybe it's worth noting that they completed their UC applications but not the Stanford applications, but then they both knew where they were going after Cal's application deadline had passed but before Stanford's admissions deadline had passed. It's one reason why I keep pumping Jeff Kent for the HoF, and I am a of immense proportions fan of Mark Canha's...I know his family well.
Melvin gets NorCal. I like that. He's a Bay Area guy who grew up here. I like that, too. He played for the Giants and I like that. And he was as successful for the Moneyball A's as anyone could be. He's likeable. He's affable. He's old school and therefore more comfortable for the average fan than the skintight clothes weating, workout nut, tattooed weirdo who led the Giants to 107 wins but put lots of people off, yourself included. Makes me wonder if the Giants would have made the playoffs in the COVID year if Posey had played catcher instead of Joey Bart, Chadwick Tromp and Tyler Heineman. They missed the playoffs by a game. Thanks, Buster.
I like Melvin for his similarities to Bochy. He is a Baby Boomer backup catcher who worked his way up the ranks. He has a lengthy career managing west coast teams. He appears to be liked and admired by the players. He is humble and shifts the spotlight to the players when things are going well, and don't criticize them when things go poorly. And BoMel is very smooth. He knows how to manage up and down (although SDP's GM Ken Rosenthal couldn't stand Melvin to the point that he let him go to a division rival). He's a good manager. But the Giants will need a great manager to get to the postseason.
What I don't care for:
1. Unlike Bochy, Melvin is not proven in the post-season, a lifetime 16-23 postseason record. Lost in the WC or first round six of seven times. That's mainly why I think of Melvin as Bochy-lite.
2. Melvin gets great press and the benefit of the doubt. Everyone extolled Melvin's relationships with Far Eastern players, and he would be critical to land Ohtani and Yamamoto. We didn't get either. We paid double Lee's market value because Farhan needed a win. Ditto Chapman, who played for him for years. Let's get Chapman in the door.
3. Mostly (and this article explains the bulk of it), Melvin had a team full of multiple-year All-Stars, Gold Glove winners, Cy Young winners and a player (Tatis) who didn't fit the prior three descriptions but finished in the top five in MVP voting -- twice. Farhan's team had none of those players, no one who could approach those numbers except a decrepit Crawford (.587 OPS) two years past his prime. As much as you dislike coconut-oil-head, the Giants won 79 games with poor players, injured players and too-old players. Melvin won 82 with an end-to-end All Star team. And the robo-manager has a better career winning percentage than BoMel, and Kapler's worst full year was better than eight of Melvin's 20 season records and his best year was better than...well...20 of Melvin's 20 seasons. By 10 wins.
4. I don't like that Melvin's Seattle team tanked...they went from 93 wins to 63 wins in a single season.
To summarize an earlier post, people treat BoMel like he's the second coming. He's the anti-Kapler...he took a hugely talented San Diego roster and dramatically underachieved whereas Kapler took a no-talent roster and overachieved. They had very similar records. BoMel was a safe, logical pick.
Because BoMel is supposedly such a great manager, I want to see 95+ wins out of him this season.
Fair enough. But I think you miss, at least my point. Which simply was I wanted a more “balanced” manager. One that appreciates and uses analytics but isn’t controlled by the. And someone players respect. He fits that bill.
“ although SDP's GM Ken Rosenthal couldn't stand Melvin to the point that he let him go to a division rival)”. Don’t get that comment…..
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-17-2024
(02-17-2024, 08:42 AM)lex24 Wrote:Mick dateline='[url=tel:1708102492' Wrote: 1708102492[/url]']
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1708095737' Wrote: 1708095737[/url]']
Curious Mick. What’s your issue with Melvin?
We did this dance back in October...
https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=24512&pid=401348&highlight=Kapler+AND+Melvin#pid401348
I'm more anti-Farhan than anti-Melvin. I don't have anything against Melvin. What I really, really like about Melvin is that he's a Cal guy, just like my mom's father. My dad was recruited by Pete Newell the year that Cal won the NCAA in men's basketball. I toured Cal with both my boys and they both were admitted. I would have been DELIGHTED if they had attended Cal (more delighted if they had attended Stanford, but that's the family school...). Maybe it's worth noting that they completed their UC applications but not the Stanford applications, but then they both knew where they were going after Cal's application deadline had passed but before Stanford's admissions deadline had passed. It's one reason why I keep pumping Jeff Kent for the HoF, and I am a of immense proportions fan of Mark Canha's...I know his family well.
Melvin gets NorCal. I like that. He's a Bay Area guy who grew up here. I like that, too. He played for the Giants and I like that. And he was as successful for the Moneyball A's as anyone could be. He's likeable. He's affable. He's old school and therefore more comfortable for the average fan than the skintight clothes weating, workout nut, tattooed weirdo who led the Giants to 107 wins but put lots of people off, yourself included. Makes me wonder if the Giants would have made the playoffs in the COVID year if Posey had played catcher instead of Joey Bart, Chadwick Tromp and Tyler Heineman. They missed the playoffs by a game. Thanks, Buster.
I like Melvin for his similarities to Bochy. He is a Baby Boomer backup catcher who worked his way up the ranks. He has a lengthy career managing west coast teams. He appears to be liked and admired by the players. He is humble and shifts the spotlight to the players when things are going well, and don't criticize them when things go poorly. And BoMel is very smooth. He knows how to manage up and down (although SDP's GM Ken Rosenthal couldn't stand Melvin to the point that he let him go to a division rival). He's a good manager. But the Giants will need a great manager to get to the postseason.
What I don't care for:
1. Unlike Bochy, Melvin is not proven in the post-season, a lifetime 16-23 postseason record. Lost in the WC or first round six of seven times. That's mainly why I think of Melvin as Bochy-lite.
2. Melvin gets great press and the benefit of the doubt. Everyone extolled Melvin's relationships with Far Eastern players, and he would be critical to land Ohtani and Yamamoto. We didn't get either. We paid double Lee's market value because Farhan needed a win. Ditto Chapman, who played for him for years. Let's get Chapman in the door.
3. Mostly (and this article explains the bulk of it), Melvin had a team full of multiple-year All-Stars, Gold Glove winners, Cy Young winners and a player (Tatis) who didn't fit the prior three descriptions but finished in the top five in MVP voting -- twice. Farhan's team had none of those players, no one who could approach those numbers except a decrepit Crawford (.587 OPS) two years past his prime. As much as you dislike coconut-oil-head, the Giants won 79 games with poor players, injured players and too-old players. Melvin won 82 with an end-to-end All Star team. And the robo-manager has a better career winning percentage than BoMel, and Kapler's worst full year was better than eight of Melvin's 20 season records and his best year was better than...well...20 of Melvin's 20 seasons. By 10 wins.
4. I don't like that Melvin's Seattle team tanked...they went from 93 wins to 63 wins in a single season.
To summarize an earlier post, people treat BoMel like he's the second coming. He's the anti-Kapler...he took a hugely talented San Diego roster and dramatically underachieved whereas Kapler took a no-talent roster and overachieved. They had very similar records. BoMel was a safe, logical pick.
Because BoMel is supposedly such a great manager, I want to see 95+ wins out of him this season.
Fair enough. But I think you miss, at least my point. Which simply was I wanted a more “balanced” manager. One that appreciates and uses analytics but isn’t controlled by them. And someone players respect. He fits that bill.
“ although SDP's GM Ken Rosenthal couldn't stand Melvin to the point that he let him go to a division rival)”. Don’t get that comment…..
I got your point, it was very obvious. I just didn't agree with it... ;)
As far as the players respecting the manager...they seemed to be respecting him okay during the 107-win season. And Stripling started the public disrespect when he started whining about how he was used. News flash, Ross: Your 6.00+ ERA means they fit you in when they can.
The most successful company I ever worked for grew about 800% faster than the average firm in my business. And my boss, the managing partner, was an execrable pustule of a man, just a horrible person. He fit every Mad Men stereotype and worse. I didn't respect him in the slightest, but WOW were we successful. We grew 40% a year (I was head of sales). He stepped down, I left a year later. His immediate successors then and to this day were fine gentlemen and excellent supervisors. They've averaged 5% growth annually since then.
Still, the way I understand your comment is that if a professional ballplayer doesn't like his boss, or the way he's used, he'll pout and tank. Okay. I get it. Not the Dick Williams A's of 1972-74, but that was another generation. Today's athlete has to be coddled, and frankly, there's a certain kind of fan who is much, much more comfortable with a more traditional manager. With that understood as the foundation, then yes...someone like Bob Melvin is necessary.
My comment re: Rosenthal was to indicate that Melvin isn't universally loved by management. Rosenthal couldn't wait to get rid of him, so much so that he let him go to a division rival. Allowing your key supervisor to go to a rival means you think that they are so poor at their job that they will will have a deleterious effect on your rival.
On a separate note:
The Giants were 60-50 through game 110, then went 19-33 thereafter. Through game 110, they were 15-5 in "opener" games, and 45-45 in games with conventional starters. In the next 52 games, they went 4-11 in "opener" games, and 16-21 with conventional starters. The most interesting part to me is that the players who gave up the most runs in the "opener" games weren't the relievers...it was Stripling, Manaea, Beck and Hjelle, the conventional starters. The starters ensured the failure of the opener experiment. Still, in overall terms, the Giants finished 19-16 using openers and 61-66 using conventional starters. Won't have to worry about openers with Melvin, I suspect.
Separately, the Giants' fielders tanked after game 110. Through game 110, they averaged 0.6 errors per game. After game 110, they averaged 0.94 errors per game. League average was 0.52 errors per game, so the Giants weren't all that bad in the first 110 games. Just as an aside, the four best fielding teams (in terms of fewest unearned runs given up) made the playoffs (Dodgers, Rays, Twins, Rangers), the Diamondbacks finished 6th in that stat, the Orioles were 8th, the Marlins and Brewers were 11th and 12th and the Braves were 14th. Only the Blue Jays (20th, and out in the first round) and the Phillies (27th) were poor fielding teams. The Giants finished 29th of 30 teams in terms of most unearned runs given up. If Melvin wants a successful season, they'll need to fix that. The worst offenders are all still on the team, except for Crawford (12 errors). Bailey (13), Wade (10, JD Davis (9), Flores (9), Estrada (8), Schmitt (8), Sabol (6), Wisely (4) are still there.
In 2021, the Giants were 9th in fewest errors and 5th in Rtot...what happened? Funny thing is that the guys who did create the errors on that team were mostly gone by 2023 (Solano, Dubon, Bryant, Longoria, Casali, Belt, Cueto, Posey, Vosler, Alvarez, Dickerson, Duggar, Gausman, La Stella, McGee, Litell, Ruf, and a few others). All replaced by players who can't field a lick. Of course, that 2021 team hit 241 HRs, versus 170 last year. And its ERA was 3.24, second in the league.
I'm sure Bob Melvin will return the Giants to the days of Bochy-ian greatness.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 02-17-2024
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1708198058' Wrote: 1708198058[/url]']
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1708184555' Wrote: 1708184555[/url]']
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1708102492' Wrote: 1708102492[/url]']
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1708095737' Wrote: 1708095737[/url]']
Curious Mick. What’s your issue with Melvin?
We did this dance back in October...
https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=24512&pid=401348&highlight=Kapler+AND+Melvin#pid401348
I'm more anti-Farhan than anti-Melvin. I don't have anything against Melvin. What I really, really like about Melvin is that he's a Cal guy, just like my mom's father. My dad was recruited by Pete Newell the year that Cal won the NCAA in men's basketball. I toured Cal with both my boys and they both were admitted. I would have been DELIGHTED if they had attended Cal (more delighted if they had attended Stanford, but that's the family school...). Maybe it's worth noting that they completed their UC applications but not the Stanford applications, but then they both knew where they were going after Cal's application deadline had passed but before Stanford's admissions deadline had passed. It's one reason why I keep pumping Jeff Kent for the HoF, and I am a of immense proportions fan of Mark Canha's...I know his family well.
Melvin gets NorCal. I like that. He's a Bay Area guy who grew up here. I like that, too. He played for the Giants and I like that. And he was as successful for the Moneyball A's as anyone could be. He's likeable. He's affable. He's old school and therefore more comfortable for the average fan than the skintight clothes weating, workout nut, tattooed weirdo who led the Giants to 107 wins but put lots of people off, yourself included. Makes me wonder if the Giants would have made the playoffs in the COVID year if Posey had played catcher instead of Joey Bart, Chadwick Tromp and Tyler Heineman. They missed the playoffs by a game. Thanks, Buster.
I like Melvin for his similarities to Bochy. He is a Baby Boomer backup catcher who worked his way up the ranks. He has a lengthy career managing west coast teams. He appears to be liked and admired by the players. He is humble and shifts the spotlight to the players when things are going well, and don't criticize them when things go poorly. And BoMel is very smooth. He knows how to manage up and down (although SDP's GM Ken Rosenthal couldn't stand Melvin to the point that he let him go to a division rival). He's a good manager. But the Giants will need a great manager to get to the postseason.
What I don't care for:
1. Unlike Bochy, Melvin is not proven in the post-season, a lifetime 16-23 postseason record. Lost in the WC or first round six of seven times. That's mainly why I think of Melvin as Bochy-lite.
2. Melvin gets great press and the benefit of the doubt. Everyone extolled Melvin's relationships with Far Eastern players, and he would be critical to land Ohtani and Yamamoto. We didn't get either. We paid double Lee's market value because Farhan needed a win. Ditto Chapman, who played for him for years. Let's get Chapman in the door.
3. Mostly (and this article explains the bulk of it), Melvin had a team full of multiple-year All-Stars, Gold Glove winners, Cy Young winners and a player (Tatis) who didn't fit the prior three descriptions but finished in the top five in MVP voting -- twice. Farhan's team had none of those players, no one who could approach those numbers except a decrepit Crawford (.587 OPS) two years past his prime. As much as you dislike coconut-oil-head, the Giants won 79 games with poor players, injured players and too-old players. Melvin won 82 with an end-to-end All Star team. And the robo-manager has a better career winning percentage than BoMel, and Kapler's worst full year was better than eight of Melvin's 20 season records and his best year was better than...well...20 of Melvin's 20 seasons. By 10 wins.
4. I don't like that Melvin's Seattle team tanked...they went from 93 wins to 63 wins in a single season.
To summarize an earlier post, people treat BoMel like he's the second coming. He's the anti-Kapler...he took a hugely talented San Diego roster and dramatically underachieved whereas Kapler took a no-talent roster and overachieved. They had very similar records. BoMel was a safe, logical pick.
Because BoMel is supposedly such a great manager, I want to see 95+ wins out of him this season.
Fair enough. But I think you miss, at least my point. Which simply was I wanted a more “balanced” manager. One that appreciates and uses analytics but isn’t controlled by them. And someone players respect. He fits that bill.
“ although SDP's GM Ken Rosenthal couldn't stand Melvin to the point that he let him go to a division rival)”. Don’t get that comment…..
I got your point, it was very obvious. I just didn't agree with it... ;)
As far as the players respecting the manager...they seemed to be respecting him okay during the 107-win season. And Stripling started the public disrespect when he started whining about how he was used. News flash, Ross: Your 6.00+ ERA means they fit you in when they can.
The most successful company I ever worked for grew about 800% faster than the average firm in my business. And my boss, the managing partner, was an execrable pustule of a man, just a horrible person. He fit every Mad Men stereotype and worse. I didn't respect him in the slightest, but WOW were we successful. We grew 40% a year (I was head of sales). He stepped down, I left a year later. His immediate successors then and to this day were fine gentlemen and excellent supervisors. They've averaged 5% growth annually since then.
Still, the way I understand your comment is that if a professional ballplayer doesn't like his boss, or the way he's used, he'll pout and tank. Okay. I get it. Not the Dick Williams A's of 1972-74, but that was another generation. Today's athlete has to be coddled, and frankly, there's a certain kind of fan who is much, much more comfortable with a more traditional manager. With that understood as the foundation, then yes...someone like Bob Melvin is necessary.
My comment re: Rosenthal was to indicate that Melvin isn't universally loved by management. Rosenthal couldn't wait to get rid of him, so much so that he let him go to a division rival. Allowing your key supervisor to go to a rival means you think that they are so poor at their job that they will will have a deleterious effect on your rival.
On a separate note:
The Giants were 60-50 through game 110, then went 19-33 thereafter. Through game 110, they were 15-5 in "opener" games, and 45-45 in games with conventional starters. In the next 52 games, they went 4-11 in "opener" games, and 16-21 with conventional starters. The most interesting part to me is that the players who gave up the most runs in the "opener" games weren't the relievers...it was Stripling, Manaea, Beck and Hjelle, the conventional starters. The starters ensured the failure of the opener experiment. Still, in overall terms, the Giants finished 19-16 using openers and 61-66 using conventional starters. Won't have to worry about openers with Melvin, I suspect.
Separately, the Giants' fielders tanked after game 110. Through game 110, they averaged 0.6 errors per game. After game 110, they averaged 0.94 errors per game. League average was 0.52 errors per game, so the Giants weren't all that bad in the first 110 games. Just as an aside, the four best fielding teams (in terms of fewest unearned runs given up) made the playoffs (Dodgers, Rays, Twins, Rangers), the Diamondbacks finished 6th in that stat, the Orioles were 8th, the Marlins and Brewers were 11th and 12th and the Braves were 14th. Only the Blue Jays (20th, and out in the first round) and the Phillies (27th) were poor fielding teams. The Giants finished 29th of 30 teams in terms of most unearned runs given up. If Melvin wants a successful season, they'll need to fix that. The worst offenders are all still on the team, except for Crawford (12 errors). Bailey (13), Wade (10, JD Davis (9), Flores (9), Estrada (8), Schmitt (8), Sabol (6), Wisely (4) are still there.
In 2021, the Giants were 9th in fewest errors and 5th in Rtot...what happened? Funny thing is that the guys who did create the errors on that team were mostly gone by 2023 (Solano, Dubon, Bryant, Longoria, Casali, Belt, Cueto, Posey, Vosler, Alvarez, Dickerson, Duggar, Gausman, La Stella, McGee, Litell, Ruf, and a few others). All replaced by players who can't field a lick. Of course, that 2021 team hit 241 HRs, versus 170 last year. And its ERA was 3.24, second in the league.
I'm sure Bob Melvin will return the Giants to the days of Bochy-ian greatness.
I thought Lex was getting the last word ;)
Also, a minor correction. It was A J. Preller who dumped Melvin. Ken Rosenthal probably wrote the article to which you were referring. Hence the mix-up.
Lastly, Melvin can’t do anything to improve the talent level in the organization. He can only work with what he is given. IMO, SF is going nowhere until Zaidi is fired. Once a more aggressive (and less analytical) guy is in charge, Melvin will be in a position to contend.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-17-2024
(02-17-2024, 02:28 PM)Giants Wrote: I thought Lex was getting the last word ;)
Also, a minor correction. It was A J. Preller who dumped Melvin. Ken Rosenthal probably wrote the article to which you were referring. Hence the mix-up.
Lastly, Melvin can’t do anything to improve the talent level in the organization. He can only work with what he is given. IMO, SF is going nowhere until Zaidi is fired. Once a more aggressive (and less analytical) guy is in charge, Melvin will be in a position to contend.
That was the Super Bowl thread... ;) Baseball is still fair game.
No, Melvin couldn't do anything to improve the talent -- same as Kapler. Of course, he could try to improve the talent through individual coaching, as Kapler's coaches seemed to do in 2021 when most of the regulars had career or near-career years. Oh well. C'est la vie.
To your point on Preller...he's gone through a bunch of managers. I wonder if he ever wakes up in the morning, looks in the mirror and thinks "maybe it's me...?"
RE: SF Giants 2024 - qwerty49 - 02-17-2024
There must be some stat that is the managerial equivalent of WAR, etc.
That being said, I’m not convinced that Saint Bochy was that much of a genius. I seem to recall his career W/L is right around .500, maybe even slightly under? I know when he first came to SF he struggled mightily and that another poster and I were privately joking that we could share his job and do better. Then all of a sudden he got the horses aligned and we get 3 championships in 5 years.
Melvin seems right out of the Bochy mold. Slightly better W/L record. Also a former catcher who maybe can get a bit more out of the pitching staff than Kaplan could.
But bottom line I think it’s more about the roster talent than anything else. And we’re lucky we usually don’t have to win the division outright to get into the postseason.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 02-17-2024
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1708210595' Wrote: 1708210595[/url]']
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1708205293' Wrote: 1708205293[/url]']
I thought Lex was getting the last word ;)
Also, a minor correction. It was A J. Preller who dumped Melvin. Ken Rosenthal probably wrote the article to which you were referring. Hence the mix-up.
Lastly, Melvin can’t do anything to improve the talent level in the organization. He can only work with what he is given. IMO, SF is going nowhere until Zaidi is fired. Once a more aggressive (and less analytical) guy is in charge, Melvin will be in a position to contend.
That was the Super Bowl thread... ;) Baseball is still fair game.
No, Melvin couldn't do anything to improve the talent -- same as Kapler. Of course, he could try to improve the talent through individual coaching, as Kapler's coaches seemed to do in 2021 when most of the regulars had career or near-career years. Oh well. C'est la vie.
To your point on Preller...he's gone through a bunch of managers. I wonder if he ever wakes up in the morning, looks in the mirror and thinks "maybe it's me...?"
Mick, I don’t think “ individual coaching” helped Posey, Crawford and Belt as much as the shortened (or in Posey’s case year off) ‘20 helped their bodies rebound.
And for proof, I give you ‘22. When both Crawford and Belt dropped off significantly.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 02-17-2024
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1708198058' Wrote: 1708198058[/url]']
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1708184555' Wrote: 1708184555[/url]']
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1708102492' Wrote: 1708102492[/url]']
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1708095737' Wrote: 1708095737[/url]']
Curious Mick. What’s your issue with Melvin?
We did this dance back in October...
https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=24512&pid=401348&highlight=Kapler+AND+Melvin#pid401348
I'm more anti-Farhan than anti-Melvin. I don't have anything against Melvin. What I really, really like about Melvin is that he's a Cal guy, just like my mom's father. My dad was recruited by Pete Newell the year that Cal won the NCAA in men's basketball. I toured Cal with both my boys and they both were admitted. I would have been DELIGHTED if they had attended Cal (more delighted if they had attended Stanford, but that's the family school...). Maybe it's worth noting that they completed their UC applications but not the Stanford applications, but then they both knew where they were going after Cal's application deadline had passed but before Stanford's admissions deadline had passed. It's one reason why I keep pumping Jeff Kent for the HoF, and I am a of immense proportions fan of Mark Canha's...I know his family well.
Melvin gets NorCal. I like that. He's a Bay Area guy who grew up here. I like that, too. He played for the Giants and I like that. And he was as successful for the Moneyball A's as anyone could be. He's likeable. He's affable. He's old school and therefore more comfortable for the average fan than the skintight clothes weating, workout nut, tattooed weirdo who led the Giants to 107 wins but put lots of people off, yourself included. Makes me wonder if the Giants would have made the playoffs in the COVID year if Posey had played catcher instead of Joey Bart, Chadwick Tromp and Tyler Heineman. They missed the playoffs by a game. Thanks, Buster.
I like Melvin for his similarities to Bochy. He is a Baby Boomer backup catcher who worked his way up the ranks. He has a lengthy career managing west coast teams. He appears to be liked and admired by the players. He is humble and shifts the spotlight to the players when things are going well, and don't criticize them when things go poorly. And BoMel is very smooth. He knows how to manage up and down (although SDP's GM Ken Rosenthal couldn't stand Melvin to the point that he let him go to a division rival). He's a good manager. But the Giants will need a great manager to get to the postseason.
What I don't care for:
1. Unlike Bochy, Melvin is not proven in the post-season, a lifetime 16-23 postseason record. Lost in the WC or first round six of seven times. That's mainly why I think of Melvin as Bochy-lite.
2. Melvin gets great press and the benefit of the doubt. Everyone extolled Melvin's relationships with Far Eastern players, and he would be critical to land Ohtani and Yamamoto. We didn't get either. We paid double Lee's market value because Farhan needed a win. Ditto Chapman, who played for him for years. Let's get Chapman in the door.
3. Mostly (and this article explains the bulk of it), Melvin had a team full of multiple-year All-Stars, Gold Glove winners, Cy Young winners and a player (Tatis) who didn't fit the prior three descriptions but finished in the top five in MVP voting -- twice. Farhan's team had none of those players, no one who could approach those numbers except a decrepit Crawford (.587 OPS) two years past his prime. As much as you dislike coconut-oil-head, the Giants won 79 games with poor players, injured players and too-old players. Melvin won 82 with an end-to-end All Star team. And the robo-manager has a better career winning percentage than BoMel, and Kapler's worst full year was better than eight of Melvin's 20 season records and his best year was better than...well...20 of Melvin's 20 seasons. By 10 wins.
4. I don't like that Melvin's Seattle team tanked...they went from 93 wins to 63 wins in a single season.
To summarize an earlier post, people treat BoMel like he's the second coming. He's the anti-Kapler...he took a hugely talented San Diego roster and dramatically underachieved whereas Kapler took a no-talent roster and overachieved. They had very similar records. BoMel was a safe, logical pick.
Because BoMel is supposedly such a great manager, I want to see 95+ wins out of him this season.
Fair enough. But I think you miss, at least my point. Which simply was I wanted a more “balanced” manager. One that appreciates and uses analytics but isn’t controlled by them. And someone players respect. He fits that bill.
“ although SDP's GM Ken Rosenthal couldn't stand Melvin to the point that he let him go to a division rival)”. Don’t get that comment…..
I got your point, it was very obvious. I just didn't agree with it... ;)
As far as the players respecting the manager...they seemed to be respecting him okay during the 107-win season. And Stripling started the public disrespect when he started whining about how he was used. News flash, Ross: Your 6.00+ ERA means they fit you in when they can.
The most successful company I ever worked for grew about 800% faster than the average firm in my business. And my boss, the managing partner, was an execrable pustule of a man, just a horrible person. He fit every Mad Men stereotype and worse. I didn't respect him in the slightest, but WOW were we successful. We grew 40% a year (I was head of sales). He stepped down, I left a year later. His immediate successors then and to this day were fine gentlemen and excellent supervisors. They've averaged 5% growth annually since then.
Still, the way I understand your comment is that if a professional ballplayer doesn't like his boss, or the way he's used, he'll pout and tank. Okay. I get it. Not the Dick Williams A's of 1972-74, but that was another generation. Today's athlete has to be coddled, and frankly, there's a certain kind of fan who is much, much more comfortable with a more traditional manager. With that understood as the foundation, then yes...someone like Bob Melvin is necessary.
My comment re: Rosenthal was to indicate that Melvin isn't universally loved by management. Rosenthal couldn't wait to get rid of him, so much so that he let him go to a division rival. Allowing your key supervisor to go to a rival means you think that they are so poor at their job that they will will have a deleterious effect on your rival.
On a separate note:
The Giants were 60-50 through game 110, then went 19-33 thereafter. Through game 110, they were 15-5 in "opener" games, and 45-45 in games with conventional starters. In the next 52 games, they went 4-11 in "opener" games, and 16-21 with conventional starters. The most interesting part to me is that the players who gave up the most runs in the "opener" games weren't the relievers...it was Stripling, Manaea, Beck and Hjelle, the conventional starters. The starters ensured the failure of the opener experiment. Still, in overall terms, the Giants finished 19-16 using openers and 61-66 using conventional starters. Won't have to worry about openers with Melvin, I suspect.
Separately, the Giants' fielders tanked after game 110. Through game 110, they averaged 0.6 errors per game. After game 110, they averaged 0.94 errors per game. League average was 0.52 errors per game, so the Giants weren't all that bad in the first 110 games. Just as an aside, the four best fielding teams (in terms of fewest unearned runs given up) made the playoffs (Dodgers, Rays, Twins, Rangers), the Diamondbacks finished 6th in that stat, the Orioles were 8th, the Marlins and Brewers were 11th and 12th and the Braves were 14th. Only the Blue Jays (20th, and out in the first round) and the Phillies (27th) were poor fielding teams. The Giants finished 29th of 30 teams in terms of most unearned runs given up. If Melvin wants a successful season, they'll need to fix that. The worst offenders are all still on the team, except for Crawford (12 errors). Bailey (13), Wade (10, JD Davis (9), Flores (9), Estrada (8), Schmitt (8), Sabol (6), Wisely (4) are still there.
In 2021, the Giants were 9th in fewest errors and 5th in Rtot...what happened? Funny thing is that the guys who did create the errors on that team were mostly gone by 2023 (Solano, Dubon, Bryant, Longoria, Casali, Belt, Cueto, Posey, Vosler, Alvarez, Dickerson, Duggar, Gausman, La Stella, McGee, Litell, Ruf, and a few others). All replaced by players who can't field a lick. Of course, that 2021 team hit 241 HRs, versus 170 last year. And its ERA was 3.24, second in the league.
I'm sure Bob Melvin will return the Giants to the days of Bochy-ian greatness.
What did Ken Rosenthal have to do with the Padres letting Melvin go? He’s a baseball writer. Prellar is the GM. He burns through managers (and coaches) quickly.
The problem with 3 openers every 5 games is it overused the bullpen.
And unfortunately, they don’t stop after 110 games. I get you liked Kapler. Fine. He got fired. That had nothing to do with Melvin.
And my comment about players not RESPECTING Kapler has nothing to do with LIKING him. Different altogether. That was not, and never has been, my point. In fact, my guess is your great managing partner was a stern taskmaster. Held people accountable etc.. According to Webb, Yaz and others, that was certainly not the case with Kapler. Laisse Faire being a more apt description. They liked him. I just don’t think they respected him.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-17-2024
(02-17-2024, 06:27 PM)lex24 Wrote:Mick dateline='[url=tel:1708210595' Wrote: 1708210595[/url]']
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1708205293' Wrote: 1708205293[/url]']
I thought Lex was getting the last word ;)
Also, a minor correction. It was A J. Preller who dumped Melvin. Ken Rosenthal probably wrote the article to which you were referring. Hence the mix-up.
Lastly, Melvin can’t do anything to improve the talent level in the organization. He can only work with what he is given. IMO, SF is going nowhere until Zaidi is fired. Once a more aggressive (and less analytical) guy is in charge, Melvin will be in a position to contend.
That was the Super Bowl thread... ;) Baseball is still fair game.
No, Melvin couldn't do anything to improve the talent -- same as Kapler. Of course, he could try to improve the talent through individual coaching, as Kapler's coaches seemed to do in 2021 when most of the regulars had career or near-career years. Oh well. C'est la vie.
To your point on Preller...he's gone through a bunch of managers. I wonder if he ever wakes up in the morning, looks in the mirror and thinks "maybe it's me...?"
Mick, I don’t think “individual coaching” helped Posey, Crawford and Belt as much as the shortened (or in Posey’s case year off) ‘20 helped their bodies rebound.
And for proof, I give you ‘22. When both Crawford and Belt dropped off significantly.
Uh huh. I have a few questions and observations...
a) Did the shortened year in 2020 not help the pitchers on the other teams in 2021 as well as the Giants hitters? By your logic, shouldn't the pitchers have improved as well?
b) For that matter, the overall MLB batting average went down by .001, from .245 in 2020 to .244 in 2021. Wouldn't the phenomenon you describe affect all MLB hitters, not just the Giants hitters?
c) As much as the Giants starting hitters improved, their backup hitters did worse, considerably worse. Shouldn't they have improved as well?
d) The Giants' fielding dramatically improved between 2020 and 2021, from 7 to 40 Rtot.
e) Giant ERA+ went from 93 in 2020 to 120 in 2021. That's a measure that compares Giant pitching to the rest of the league. In other words, the Giants' pitching staff improved relative to the pitching in the rest of the league, not because they had additional rest in 2020.
f) Belt rebounded in 2023. Crawford got old and tanked. Belt's coach Schneider, the 2023 AL Manager of the Year has a .572 career winning record and a .549 record last season. He obviously knows how to manage and presumably he has some excellent coaches there that got Belt to a superb result.
As much as we all might hate to admit it, the guy that Farhan fired hired a coaching staff that took Bochy's teams which went 64-98, 73-89 and 77-85 from 2017 to 2019, and turned them into a 107-55 team in the first full season after three years' worth of debacles. I don't really understand the mental contortions that people go through to discount 2021 as if the whole season were a Bobby Ewing dream and it just didn't "count". Isn't the more logical conclusion that Kapler's new coaching staff and his managing resulted in the most regular-season wins that any Giants team has EVER had ever?
And that's why I expect Bob Melvin's Giants to get into the playoffs, based upon the assertions I've read on this board, fundamentally that Kapler was trash that no one liked or respected, that he didn't know what he was talking about, that his career, season and ceiling win record was a mirage that shouldn't be compared to his prior or subsequent head coach and that Melvin is the Saviour. I hope he is, I really hope he is. As Giants (the CardBoard poster) says, a manager should be worth 5-7 games. Since the Giants have added Soler, Lee, Ray, Murphy, Hicks -- and Snell, Chapman and Montgomery, among others, remain unsigned, and the Giants only have the 13th largest payroll and are $26.5 mms. under the luxury tax threshold, and they lost some serious (and highly-paid) underperformers like Manaea, Stripling, Haniger, Junis, Brebbia, Pederson and DeSclafani -- I have to assume that Melvin's Giants will improve from 79 wins to at least 89. One or two more FA's, and I would expect 95 wins.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 02-17-2024
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1708223224' Wrote: 1708223224[/url]']
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1708219678' Wrote: 1708219678[/url]']
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1708210595' Wrote: 1708210595[/url]']
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1708205293' Wrote: 1708205293[/url]']
I thought Lex was getting the last word ;)
Also, a minor correction. It was A J. Preller who dumped Melvin. Ken Rosenthal probably wrote the article to which you were referring. Hence the mix-up.
Lastly, Melvin can’t do anything to improve the talent level in the organization. He can only work with what he is given. IMO, SF is going nowhere until Zaidi is fired. Once a more aggressive (and less analytical) guy is in charge, Melvin will be in a position to contend.
That was the Super Bowl thread... ;) Baseball is still fair game.
No, Melvin couldn't do anything to improve the talent -- same as Kapler. Of course, he could try to improve the talent through individual coaching, as Kapler's coaches seemed to do in 2021 when most of the regulars had career or near-career years. Oh well. C'est la vie.
To your point on Preller...he's gone through a bunch of managers. I wonder if he ever wakes up in the morning, looks in the mirror and thinks "maybe it's me...?"
Mick, I don’t think “individual coaching” helped Posey, Crawford and Belt as much as the shortened (or in Posey’s case year off) ‘20 helped their bodies rebound.
And for proof, I give you ‘22. When both Crawford and Belt dropped off significantly.
Uh huh. I have a few questions and observations...
a) Did the shortened year in 2020 not help the pitchers on the other teams in 2021 as well as the Giants hitters? By your logic, shouldn't the pitchers have improved as well?
b) For that matter, the overall MLB batting average went down by .001, from .245 in 2020 to .244 in 2021. Wouldn't the phenomenon you describe affect all MLB hitters, not just the Giants hitters?
c) As much as the Giants starting hitters improved, their backup hitters did worse, considerably worse. Shouldn't they have improved as well?
d) The Giants' fielding dramatically improved between 2020 and 2021, from 7 to 40 Rtot.
e) Giant ERA+ went from 93 in 2020 to 120 in 2021. That's a measure that compares Giant pitching to the rest of the league. In other words, the Giants' pitching staff improved relative to the pitching in the rest of the league, not because they had additional rest in 2020.
f) Belt rebounded in 2023. Crawford got old and tanked. Belt's coach Schneider, the 2023 AL Manager of the Year has a .572 career winning record and a .549 record last season. He obviously knows how to manage and presumably he has some excellent coaches there that got Belt to a superb result.
As much as we all might hate to admit it, the guy that Farhan fired hired a coaching staff that took Bochy's teams which went 64-98, 73-89 and 77-85 from 2017 to 2019, and turned them into a 107-55 team in the first full season after three years' worth of debacles. I don't really understand the mental contortions that people go through to discount 2021 as if the whole season were a Bobby Ewing dream and it just didn't "count". Isn't the more logical conclusion that Kapler's new coaching staff and his managing resulted in the most regular-season wins that any Giants team has EVER had ever?
And that's why I expect Bob Melvin's Giants to get into the playoffs, based upon the assertions I've read on this board, fundamentally that Kapler was trash that no one liked or respected, that he didn't know what he was talking about, that his career, season and ceiling win record was a mirage that shouldn't be compared to his prior or subsequent head coach and that Melvin is the Saviour. I hope he is, I really hope he is. As Giants (the CardBoard poster) says, a manager should be worth 5-7 games. Since the Giants have added Soler, Lee, Ray, Murphy, Hicks -- and Snell, Chapman and Montgomery, among others, remain unsigned, and the Giants only have the 13th largest payroll and are $26.5 mms. under the luxury tax threshold, and they lost some serious (and highly-paid) underperformers like Manaea, Stripling, Haniger, Junis, Brebbia, Pederson and DeSclafani -- I have to assume that Melvin's Giants will improve from 79 wins to at least 89. One or two more FA's, and I would expect 95 wins.
Yep. Since the Giants, as currently constructed, are a 70 win bunch under a generic manager, they should win an additional 5 under Melvin, giving them 75. :)
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 02-18-2024
https://digital.olivesoftware.com/olive/odn/sanfranciscochronicle/default.aspx