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RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 12-28-2022
Seriously outdated, predicted New and Updated WAG at SF Giants Opening Day Roster:
1. Wilmer Flores, 1B, R
2. LaMonte Wade, 1B, L
3. David Villar, 3B, R
4. Brandon Crawford, SS, L
5. J.D. Davis, 3B, R
6. Thairo Estrada, UT, Spot OF, R
7. Joc Pederson, DH, Spot OF, L
8. Mike Yastrzemski, OF, L
9. Mike Conforto, OF
10. Mitch Haniger, OF
11. Austin Slater, OF, R
12. Joey Bart, C, R
13. Blake Sabol, C
14. Logan Webb, SP
15. Anthony DeSclafani, SP
16. Alex Cobb, SP
17. Alex Wood, SP
18. Ross Stripling, SP
19. Sean Manaea, LRP
20. Jakob Junis, LRP
21. Camilo Doval, RP
22. Taylor Rogers, RP
23. Tyler Rogers, RP
24. John Brebbia, RP
25. Scott Alexander, RP
26. Luke Jackson, RP
Tristan Beck, Isan Diaz, Jose Cruz, Sean Hjelle, Sammy Long, Marco Luciano, Yunior Marte, Luis Matos, Heliot Ramos, Randy Rodriguez, Thomas Szapucki, Cole Waites, Keaton Winn, Brett Wisely all start the season in Sacramento or get traded. Team cuts ties with senior citizens La Stella, Longoria and Belt.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - BobK - 12-28-2022
(12-28-2022, 03:18 PM)Mick Wrote: Predicted New and Updated Predicted San Francisco Giants Opening Day Roster:
1. Wilmer Flores, 1B, R
2. LaMonte Wade, 1B, L
3. David Villar, 3B, R
4. Brandon Crawford, SS, L
5. J.D. Davis, 3B, R
6. Thairo Estrada, UT, Spot OF, R
7. Joc Pederson, DH, Spot OF, L
8. Mike Yastrzemski, OF, L
9. Mike Conforto, OF
10. Mitch Haniger, OF
11. Austin Slater, OF, R
12. Joey Bart, C, R
13. Austin Wynns, C
14. Blake Sabol, C
15. Logan Webb, SP
16. Alex Cobb, SP
17. Alex Wood, SP
18. Anthony DeSclafani, SP
19. Sean Manaea, LRP
20. Ross Stripling, SP
21. Jakob Junis, LRP
22. Taylor Rogers, RP
23. Tyler Rogers, RP
24. Camilo Doval, RP
25. Scott Alexander, RP
26. John Brebbia, RP
Tristan Beck, Isan Diaz, Jose Cruz, Sean Hjelle, Sammy Long, Marco Luciano, Yunior Marte, Luis Matos, Heliot Ramos, Randy Rodriguez, Thomas Szapucki, Cole Waites, Keaton Winn, Brett Wisely all start the season in Sacramento or get traded. Team cuts ties with senior citizens La Stella, Longoria and Belt.
Thanks Mick, bet this will be very close, plus minus the catchers
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 12-29-2022
(12-28-2022, 05:27 PM)BobK Wrote:(12-28-2022, 03:18 PM)Mick Wrote: Predicted New and Updated Predicted San Francisco Giants Opening Day Roster:
1. Wilmer Flores, 1B, R
2. LaMonte Wade, 1B, L
3. David Villar, 3B, R
4. Brandon Crawford, SS, L
5. J.D. Davis, 3B, R
6. Thairo Estrada, UT, Spot OF, R
7. Joc Pederson, DH, Spot OF, L
8. Mike Yastrzemski, OF, L
9. Mike Conforto, OF
10. Mitch Haniger, OF
11. Austin Slater, OF, R
12. Joey Bart, C, R
13. Austin Wynns, C
14. Blake Sabol, C
15. Logan Webb, SP
16. Alex Cobb, SP
17. Alex Wood, SP
18. Anthony DeSclafani, SP
19. Sean Manaea, LRP
20. Ross Stripling, SP
21. Jakob Junis, LRP
22. Taylor Rogers, RP
23. Tyler Rogers, RP
24. Camilo Doval, RP
25. Scott Alexander, RP
26. John Brebbia, RP
Tristan Beck, Isan Diaz, Jose Cruz, Sean Hjelle, Sammy Long, Marco Luciano, Yunior Marte, Luis Matos, Heliot Ramos, Randy Rodriguez, Thomas Szapucki, Cole Waites, Keaton Winn, Brett Wisely all start the season in Sacramento or get traded. Team cuts ties with senior citizens La Stella, Longoria and Belt.
Thanks Mick, bet this will be very close, plus minus the catchers
Not a lot of open spots. Obviously injuries will play a role. Trades? I don’t see much. Maybe a left handed utility infielder on the Churn market.
Giants may start 14-12. But they will get to 13-13 fairly early. Sabol has to stick with club all year or be returned. A know his bat played well in minors. But I’m struck that Pittsburgh didn’t protect him. Maybe he breaks camp. But odds of him sticking are slim.
Giants thin on left handed bats - Wade (or Gonzales) , Yaz, Conforto, Craw. Pederson. I’m hoping Diaz or Wisely makes an impression. (Although I’m perfectly happy giving Estrada 140 games at 2b. His splits aren’t dramatic. He has some speed. Some pop. And if left to concentrate defensively on second, can be, I believe, a solid defensive second baseman.)
Disco may start season on IL. If so, Szarpucki probably first up. (Or breaks camp if they go 13-13 ). Hjelle will be up at some point. He, Junis and Wood/Disco (whoever is 6th starter) can all eat innings out of pen.
Waites is intriguing. Giants don’t have a lot of power arms in pen.
Finally, Schmitt. Assuming he has a solid spring and starts off decently at Sacto, I think it’s when not if. Maybe June 1.
Team still below average defensively. Now, especially in infield. And slow.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Phogge - 12-29-2022
78 wins? Already tasting the oysters.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - BobK - 12-29-2022
I’ll go 88 wins why not since I’ll go 8-4 once again for football
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 12-29-2022
Diaz would be interesting. Seems to be a strong fielder, just 3 errors and 23 DPs in 57 games. Lots of power for a second baseman in AAA last year (.951 OPS), but he batted .275 which isn't great in that league. Luke Williams, on the other hand, improved his hitting when he moved from Indianapolis to the River Cats. He hit .378 in 37 ABs. There's no one at AA who can help, Carter Adrete hit .231.
I agree, Schmitt should be up sooner rather than later. He hit .342 in AA in a pitcher-friendly league, when the next best hitters hit .284 and .266. He strikes out a lot, so he'll fit right in... ;). He went 5 for 15 with a double and an HR in AAA call up.
Sabol had an interesting year. A lefty, he hit well with power in AA, then hit better for a higher average (.281 to .296) and more OPS (.833 to .969) in AAA. Doesn't have a great arm, threw out 9 of 57 base stealers. Had six errors and a .990 fielding percentage for the year. Unless something goes awry, he'll be on the opening day roster as a catcher.
Agree, Waites looks interesting...
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - OutsiderFan - 12-29-2022
(12-28-2022, 03:18 PM)Mick Wrote: Predicted New and Updated Predicted San Francisco Giants Opening Day Roster:
1. Wilmer Flores, 1B, R
2. LaMonte Wade, 1B, L
3. David Villar, 3B, R
4. Brandon Crawford, SS, L
5. J.D. Davis, 3B, R
6. Thairo Estrada, UT, Spot OF, R
7. Joc Pederson, DH, Spot OF, L
8. Mike Yastrzemski, OF, L
9. Mike Conforto, OF
10. Mitch Haniger, OF
11. Austin Slater, OF, R
12. Joey Bart, C, R
13. Austin Wynns, C
14. Blake Sabol, C
15. Logan Webb, SP
16. Alex Cobb, SP
17. Alex Wood, SP
18. Anthony DeSclafani, SP
19. Sean Manaea, LRP
20. Ross Stripling, SP
21. Jakob Junis, LRP
22. Taylor Rogers, RP
23. Tyler Rogers, RP
24. Camilo Doval, RP
25. Scott Alexander, RP
26. John Brebbia, RP
Tristan Beck, Isan Diaz, Jose Cruz, Sean Hjelle, Sammy Long, Marco Luciano, Yunior Marte, Luis Matos, Heliot Ramos, Randy Rodriguez, Thomas Szapucki, Cole Waites, Keaton Winn, Brett Wisely all start the season in Sacramento or get traded. Team cuts ties with senior citizens La Stella, Longoria and Belt.
OK, rank these guys in order of how good you think they are. I'd say WAR, but that might throw some people into a tizzy. The Top 2-3 players should be All-Star/ROY caliber. So not only list them in order, put an "H" for honors next to their name for each Giants player in this list of 25 you think can make All-Star team, win ROY, Silver Slugger, or a Gold Glove.
Curious to know what y'all think about the talent level of these 26 Giants players.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 12-29-2022
(12-29-2022, 12:35 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: OK, rank these guys in order of how good you think they are. I'd say WAR, but that might throw some people into a tizzy. The Top 2-3 players should be All-Star/ROY caliber. So not only list them in order, put an "H" for honors next to their name for each Giants player in this list of 25 you think can make All-Star team, win ROY, Silver Slugger, or a Gold Glove.I took a look at the best year of the last three years of these players. I think that the Giants will really succeed, and everyone will perform at the top level. Given that:
Curious to know what y'all think about the talent level of these 26 Giants players.
Crawford, Conforto and Haniger bounce back and have All-Star years at SS and two OF spots.
Logan Webb and Anthony DeSclefani as #1 and #2 starting pitchers.
Thairo Estrada and Joc Pederson need and will step up to the plate, literally and figuratively, at 2B and DH.
Austin Slater, my guy, will step up in the field and at the plate. Yaz bounces back, too. They will platoon the last outfield spot and PH.
Sean Manaea will have a great comeback year as the #3 starter.
Camilo Duval will close and do very well. Tyler and Taylor Rogers as setup men will have a very good year.
JD Davis at 3B and Wilmer Flores at 1B will be solid, but not spectacular.
Ross Stripling as #4 starter and Alex Cobb as #5 starter, also need to be solid, not spectacular.
David Villar and Late Night LaMonte will be the key backups, right behind Davis and Flores.
Joey Bart will have a quiet year at catcher. Maybe Bailey catches fire.
Brebbia and Alexander will do very well, I think. Alex Wood, Jakob Junis in long relief. Wynns and Sabol will close it out.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 12-29-2022
(12-29-2022, 12:35 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: OK, rank these guys in order of how good you think they are. I'd say WAR, but that might throw some people into a tizzy. The Top 2-3 players should be All-Star/ROY caliber. So not only list them in order, put an "H" for honors next to their name for each Giants player in this list of 25 you think can make All-Star team, win ROY, Silver Slugger, or a Gold Glove.I took a look at the best year of the last three years of these players. I think that the Giants will really succeed, and everyone will perform at the top level. Given that:
1. Crawford, Conforto and Haniger bounce back and have All-Star years at SS and two OF spots.
2. Logan Webb and Anthony DeSclefani as #1 and #2 starting pitchers.
3. Thairo Estrada and Joc Pederson need and will step up to the plate, literally and figuratively, at 2B and DH.
4. Austin Slater, my guy, will step up in the field and at the plate. Yaz bounces back, too. They will platoon the last outfield spot and PH.
5. Sean Manaea will have a great comeback year as the #3 starter.
6. Camilo Duval will close and do very well. Tyler and Taylor Rogers as setup men will have a very good year.
7. JD Davis at 3B and Wilmer Flores at 1B will be solid, but not spectacular.
8. Ross Stripling as #4 starter and Alex Cobb as #5 starter, also need to be solid, not spectacular.
9. David Villar and Late Night LaMonte will be the key backups, right behind Davis and Flores.
10. Joey Bart, the James Wiseman of the Giants, will have a quiet year at catcher. Maybe Bailey catches fire.
11. Brebbia and Alexander will do very well, I think. Alex Wood, Jakob Junis in long relief. Wynns and Sabol, the Ryan Rollins and Patrick Baldwin of the Giants, will close it out.
If Schmitt arrives, he'll be either #4 or #12. Nothing in between.
(12-29-2022, 12:35 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Curious to know what y'all think about the talent level of these 26 Giants players.
Excellent article summarizing Giants and the rest of their needs, from the Athletic:
What the Giants still need this offseason — A position-by-position look - The Athletic
Basically, none of the current Giants players fall into the 1st or 2nd or 5th quintile. They ALL fall into the 3rd and 4th quintile, the very definition of mediocre. So...basically, to win the 87+ games that I think will happen, the FA's and a few starters will have to have significant bounceback or career years.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Phogge - 12-29-2022
Ross Stripling is an All Star and wins two playoff games.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Giants - 12-29-2022
Quite optimistic, Mick.
Overall, I would rank the current Giants talent as 6.5 on a scale of 1-10 (10 being tops). The defense is still problematic, the pitching is promising, the offense is mediocre. NL West: 1/2 - SD/LA or LA/SD, 3/4 - SF/AZ or AZ/SF, 5. CO. Between 78-83 wins for the Giants.
Of course, when Correa comes to his senses and signs a revised deal with SF, I reserve the right to change this prognostication. :)
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 12-29-2022
(12-29-2022, 03:20 PM)Mick Wrote:(12-29-2022, 12:35 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: OK, rank these guys in order of how good you think they are. I'd say WAR, but that might throw some people into a tizzy. The Top 2-3 players should be All-Star/ROY caliber. So not only list them in order, put an "H" for honors next to their name for each Giants player in this list of 25 you think can make All-Star team, win ROY, Silver Slugger, or a Gold Glove.I took a look at the best year of the last three years of these players. I think that the Giants will really succeed, and everyone will perform at the top level. Given that:
Curious to know what y'all think about the talent level of these 26 Giants players.
Crawford, Conforto and Haniger bounce back and have All-Star years at SS and two OF spots.
Logan Webb and Anthony DeSclefani as #1 and #2 starting pitchers.
Thairo Estrada and Joc Pederson need and will step up to the plate, literally and figuratively, at 2B and DH.
Austin Slater, my guy, will step up in the field and at the plate. Yaz bounces back, too. They will platoon the last outfield spot and PH.
Sean Manaea will have a great comeback year as the #3 starter.
Camilo Duval will close and do very well. Tyler and Taylor Rogers as setup men will have a very good year.
JD Davis at 3B and Wilmer Flores at 1B will be solid, but not spectacular.
Ross Stripling as #4 starter and Alex Cobb as #5 starter, also need to be solid, not spectacular.
David Villar and Late Night LaMonte will be the key backups, right behind Davis and Flores.
Joey Bart will have a quiet year at catcher. Maybe Bailey catches fire.
Brebbia and Alexander will do very well, I think. Alex Wood, Jakob Junis in long relief. Wynns and Sabol will close it out.
And Kapler will fart roses….. But the optimism is good.
(12-29-2022, 06:17 PM)Giants Wrote: Quite optimistic, Mick.
Overall, I would rank the current Giants talent as 6.5 on a scale of 1-10 (10 being tops). The defense is still problematic, the pitching is promising, the offense is mediocre. NL West: 1/2 - SD/LA or LA/SD, 3/4 - SF/AZ or AZ/SF, 5. CO. Between 78-83 wins for the Giants.
Of course, when Correa comes to his senses and signs a revised deal with SF, I reserve the right to change this prognostication. :)
Pretty realistic. I’d put talent at 5.5. Defense is worse than problematic at this point. (Don’t want to see Davis at third, he’s a butcher.) Starting pitching will be interesting. Losing an ace is tough. Lots of 4/5’s. Bullpen - who knows. I do think they will hit. And I keep coming back to something no one seems to care about. They are s.l.o.w.
(12-29-2022, 12:35 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(12-28-2022, 03:18 PM)Mick Wrote: Predicted New and Updated Predicted San Francisco Giants Opening Day Roster:
1. Wilmer Flores, 1B, R
2. LaMonte Wade, 1B, L
3. David Villar, 3B, R
4. Brandon Crawford, SS, L
5. J.D. Davis, 3B, R
6. Thairo Estrada, UT, Spot OF, R
7. Joc Pederson, DH, Spot OF, L
8. Mike Yastrzemski, OF, L
9. Mike Conforto, OF
10. Mitch Haniger, OF
11. Austin Slater, OF, R
12. Joey Bart, C, R
13. Austin Wynns, C
14. Blake Sabol, C
15. Logan Webb, SP
16. Alex Cobb, SP
17. Alex Wood, SP
18. Anthony DeSclafani, SP
19. Sean Manaea, LRP
20. Ross Stripling, SP
21. Jakob Junis, LRP
22. Taylor Rogers, RP
23. Tyler Rogers, RP
24. Camilo Doval, RP
25. Scott Alexander, RP
26. John Brebbia, RP
Tristan Beck, Isan Diaz, Jose Cruz, Sean Hjelle, Sammy Long, Marco Luciano, Yunior Marte, Luis Matos, Heliot Ramos, Randy Rodriguez, Thomas Szapucki, Cole Waites, Keaton Winn, Brett Wisely all start the season in Sacramento or get traded. Team cuts ties with senior citizens La Stella, Longoria and Belt.
OK, rank these guys in order of how good you think they are. I'd say WAR, but that might throw some people into a tizzy. The Top 2-3 players should be All-Star/ROY caliber. So not only list them in order, put an "H" for honors next to their name for each Giants player in this list of 25 you think can make All-Star team, win ROY, Silver Slugger, or a Gold Glove.
Curious to know what y'all think about the talent level of these 26 Giants players.
ROY - none.
AS - Webb Doval
GG. Crawford. He’s won 4. If Yaz could play right, he’d be a candidate. But he’s gonna play CF
Silver Slugger - None.
This is a mix and match “pieces team”. No stars. In order
1. Webb
2. Doval
3. Cobb
4. Haniger
5. Estrada
6. Crawford
7. Ty Rodgers
8. Yaz
9. Conforto
10. Davis
11. Flores
12. Slater
13. Pederson
14 Stripling
15 Brebbia
16 Bart
17 Manaea
18 Wood
19 DeSclafani
20 Ty Rogers
21 Alexander
22 Villar
23 Junis
24. Wade
25 Wynns
26. Diaz
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 12-29-2022
(12-29-2022, 06:17 PM)Giants Wrote: Quite optimistic, Mick.
Overall, I would rank the current Giants talent as 6.5 on a scale of 1-10 (10 being tops). The defense is still problematic, the pitching is promising, the offense is mediocre. NL West: 1/2 - SD/LA or LA/SD, 3/4 - SF/AZ or AZ/SF, 5. CO. Between 78-83 wins for the Giants.
Of course, when Correa comes to his senses and signs a revised deal with SF, I reserve the right to change this prognostication. :)
Care for a wager? You take 83 and under, I'll take 84 wins or more...
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Giants - 12-30-2022
(12-29-2022, 11:44 PM)Mick Wrote:(12-29-2022, 06:17 PM)Giants Wrote: Quite optimistic, Mick.
Overall, I would rank the current Giants talent as 6.5 on a scale of 1-10 (10 being tops). The defense is still problematic, the pitching is promising, the offense is mediocre. NL West: 1/2 - SD/LA or LA/SD, 3/4 - SF/AZ or AZ/SF, 5. CO. Between 78-83 wins for the Giants.
Of course, when Correa comes to his senses and signs a revised deal with SF, I reserve the right to change this prognostication. :)
Care for a wager? You take 83 and under, I'll take 84 wins or more...
Well, since I do not wager on sports, I can only suggest bragging rights. However, since that would require me to root against my favorite professional sports team, I can’t even do that.
Heck, I hope you are right. I’d be the first to stand up and cheer after an 84th win.
Last season, I had the Giants down for 90 and I thought Lex was being pessimistic with his initial call of 80. After the season, I gave him a shout out for his acumen. Look for the same if SF exceeds 83!
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 12-30-2022
(12-30-2022, 12:55 AM)Giants Wrote:(12-29-2022, 11:44 PM)Mick Wrote:(12-29-2022, 06:17 PM)Giants Wrote: Quite optimistic, Mick.
Overall, I would rank the current Giants talent as 6.5 on a scale of 1-10 (10 being tops). The defense is still problematic, the pitching is promising, the offense is mediocre. NL West: 1/2 - SD/LA or LA/SD, 3/4 - SF/AZ or AZ/SF, 5. CO. Between 78-83 wins for the Giants.
Of course, when Correa comes to his senses and signs a revised deal with SF, I reserve the right to change this prognostication. :)
Care for a wager? You take 83 and under, I'll take 84 wins or more...
Well, since I do not wager on sports, I can only suggest bragging rights. However, since that would require me to root against my favorite professional sports team, I can’t even do that.
Heck, I hope you are right. I’d be the first to stand up and cheer after an 84th win.
Last season, I had the Giants down for 90 and I thought Lex was being pessimistic with his initial call of 80. After the season, I gave him a shout out for his acumen. Look for the same if SF exceeds 83!
78-84. I’m up a couple after Conforto. I was at 75. Have a bet with Mick at that figure. He needs 86. Draw most likely outcome.
If at 78 with Phogge. Lots of oysters on the line.
My wish for this season at this point is that they are significantly less boring and that they begin to incorporate their prospects. If they finish around .500 while bringing Schmitt, Harrison and maybe Brown up (and not on the friggin Sac Shuttle - I mean around July and stay up), it will be at least an interesting season.
If it’s like last year…….ugh
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 01-01-2023
Doval. Trade chip?
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 01-01-2023
I'm optimistic about 2023. I really like the Giants' FA moves so far, and they're not done. Not getting Judge or Correa isn't a dealbreaker for me. I think Correa would have been an absolute disaster -- he's a broken player. And Judge will be strong for another year or two, then tail off.
Here's why I am optimistic about the Giants in 2023:
1. In my view, 2022 was an outlier year to the negative side. They happen sometimes. The breaks don't go your way. I think we'll do better next year. I don't think they'll all have career years, although that's what happened in 2021, so there's precedent for career years for all starters. I think the Giants, with the new FAs, the new positioning rules, the shorter time pitchers have between pitches, Joc at DH instead of in the field, will improve the team's collective OPS to .750 from about .704. And if they have career years, their collective OPS might be north of .800.
2. And it wouldn't be a miracle for fielding to improve, it would be reverting to form. Last year, the Giants were 29th in MLB in fielding, but the year before they were 8th as measured by Rtot. The new positioning rules will benefit the Giants fielders.
3. Just six more wins last season, and the Giants would have tied the Phillies with 87 wins (SF owned the series, 5-1) and would have made the playoffs. Seven more wins and they would have matched the 2014 WLS team's regular season win total.
4. The trend, BTW, points towards improvement--the Giants won 12 of their last 16 games, 16 of their last 24 and 20 of their last 33, including 2-8 against the Dodgers and Padres. In other words, they won 18 of their last 25 against the rest of the league in September and October. Don't forget, they don't play the Padres and Dodgers 38 times in 2022 (against whom they were a collective 10-28), in 2023 it's just 26, 13 games each.
5. They lose Rodon, but they gain DeSclefani, Stripling, Taylor and Manaea. They keep their strong relievers and will lose their weak ones.
6. Farhan's been in charge since 2019. The Giants' winning percentage has improved in three of the four years that he's been in charge. That's a pretty good track record -- and it would have been essentially impossible to improve on the .660 winning percentage from a 107-55 season. For everyone who thinks the Giants will win fewer than 81 games, well you're bucking a 75% improvement trend in favor of regression.
I think 2021 was outlier to the upside -- everything went right. 2022 was an outlier to the downside. Average pitching, average hitting, nearly the worst fielding in the league. I'm not even saying we finish in between the two win totals, which would be (107-81)/2 = 13 additional wins over the 81. I don't think they'll win 94. But I think they can win 87 or more. And 87 would have put them in a six-team playoff four of the last five full seasons.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 01-01-2023
(01-01-2023, 11:02 AM)Mick Wrote: I'm optimistic about 2023. I really like the Giants' FA moves so far, and they're not done. Not getting Judge or Correa isn't a dealbreaker for me. I think Correa would have been an absolute disaster -- he's a broken player. And Judge will be strong for another year or two, then tail off.
Here's why I am optimistic about the Giants in 2023:
1. In my view, 2022 was an outlier year to the negative side. They happen sometimes. The breaks don't go your way. I think we'll do better next year. I don't think they'll all have career years, although that's what happened in 2021, so there's precedent for career years for all starters. I think the Giants, with the new FAs, the new positioning rules, the shorter time pitchers have between pitches, Joc at DH instead of in the field, will improve the team's collective OPS to .750 from about .704. And if they have career years, their collective OPS might be north of .800.
2. And it wouldn't be a miracle for fielding to improve, it would be reverting to form. Last year, the Giants were 29th in MLB in fielding, but the year before they were 8th as measured by Rtot. The new positioning rules will benefit the Giants fielders.
3. Just six more wins last season, and the Giants would have tied the Phillies with 87 wins (SF owned the series, 5-1) and would have made the playoffs. Seven more wins and they would have matched the 2014 WLS team's regular season win total.
4. The trend, BTW, points towards improvement--the Giants won 12 of their last 16 games, 16 of their last 24 and 20 of their last 33, including 2-8 against the Dodgers and Padres. In other words, they won 18 of their last 25 against the rest of the league in September and October. Don't forget, they don't play the Padres and Dodgers 38 times in 2022 (against whom they were a collective 10-28), in 2023 it's just 26, 13 games each.
5. They lose Rodon, but they gain DeSclefani, Stripling, Taylor and Manaea. They keep their strong relievers and will lose their weak ones.
6. Farhan's been in charge since 2019. The Giants' winning percentage has improved in three of the four years that he's been in charge. That's a pretty good track record -- and it would have been essentially impossible to improve on the .660 winning percentage from a 107-55 season. For everyone who thinks the Giants will win fewer than 81 games, well you're bucking a 75% improvement trend in favor of regression.
I think 2021 was outlier to the upside -- everything went right. 2022 was an outlier to the downside. Average pitching, average hitting, nearly the worst fielding in the league. I'm not even saying we finish in between the two win totals, which would be (107-81)/2 = 13 additional wins over the 81. I don't think they'll win 94. But I think they can win 87 or more. And 87 would have put them in a six-team playoff four of the last five full seasons.
The new positioning rules will hurt the Giants defensively. They were very good at using shifts. Slow. Range issues. Corners on infield a major issue. Outfield will be better. But it’s still a questionable, at best, defense.
September run is meaningless. 6 were against a Rockies team that quit. Schedule helped. And I never trust September for a non-contending team.
Giants will be fortunate to hold off DBacks for third in Division.
But your right, if a bunch of guys have career years, they could be a little better than average.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 01-01-2023
(01-01-2023, 11:30 AM)lex24 Wrote:(01-01-2023, 11:02 AM)Mick Wrote: I'm optimistic about 2023. I really like the Giants' FA moves so far, and they're not done. Not getting Judge or Correa isn't a dealbreaker for me. I think Correa would have been an absolute disaster -- he's a broken player. And Judge will be strong for another year or two, then tail off.
Here's why I am optimistic about the Giants in 2023:
1. In my view, 2022 was an outlier year to the negative side. They happen sometimes. The breaks don't go your way. I think we'll do better next year. I don't think they'll all have career years, although that's what happened in 2021, so there's precedent for career years for all starters. I think the Giants, with the new FAs, the new positioning rules, the shorter time pitchers have between pitches, Joc at DH instead of in the field, will improve the team's collective OPS to .750 from about .704. And if they have career years, their collective OPS might be north of .800.
2. And it wouldn't be a miracle for fielding to improve, it would be reverting to form. Last year, the Giants were 29th in MLB in fielding, but the year before they were 8th as measured by Rtot. The new positioning rules will benefit the Giants fielders.
3. Just six more wins last season, and the Giants would have tied the Phillies with 87 wins (SF owned the series, 5-1) and would have made the playoffs. Seven more wins and they would have matched the 2014 WLS team's regular season win total.
4. The trend, BTW, points towards improvement--the Giants won 12 of their last 16 games, 16 of their last 24 and 20 of their last 33, including 2-8 against the Dodgers and Padres. In other words, they won 18 of their last 25 against the rest of the league in September and October. Don't forget, they don't play the Padres and Dodgers 38 times in 2022 (against whom they were a collective 10-28), in 2023 it's just 26, 13 games each.
5. They lose Rodon, but they gain DeSclefani, Stripling, Taylor and Manaea. They keep their strong relievers and will lose their weak ones.
6. Farhan's been in charge since 2019. The Giants' winning percentage has improved in three of the four years that he's been in charge. That's a pretty good track record -- and it would have been essentially impossible to improve on the .660 winning percentage from a 107-55 season. For everyone who thinks the Giants will win fewer than 81 games, well you're bucking a 75% improvement trend in favor of regression.
I think 2021 was outlier to the upside -- everything went right. 2022 was an outlier to the downside. Average pitching, average hitting, nearly the worst fielding in the league. I'm not even saying we finish in between the two win totals, which would be (107-81)/2 = 13 additional wins over the 81. I don't think they'll win 94. But I think they can win 87 or more. And 87 would have put them in a six-team playoff four of the last five full seasons.
The new positioning rules will hurt the Giants defensively. They were very good at using shifts. Slow. Range issues. Corners on infield a major issue. Outfield will be better. But it’s still a questionable, at best, defense.
September run is meaningless. 6 were against a Rockies team that quit. Schedule helped. And I never trust September for a non-contending team.
Giants will be fortunate to hold off DBacks for third in Division.
But your right, if a bunch of guys have career years, they could be a little better than average.
I wonder. I don't have 2022 stats, but in 2021, the Dodgers shifted the most in MLB, the Giants were 18th against lefties and 29th against righties. Sounds to me like the rules would hit the Dodgers more than the Giants. And in general, a shift ban will make power hitting lefties more valuable. Yastrzemski, Pederson, Wade, Crawford, should do well.
I can't recall who made the comment about the Giants being old and slow. I'll just mention that the four oldest teams in MLB are the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Giants. I think the fans of at least three of those teams should be very happy. And as far as slow is concerned, the Giants had the 5th best stolen base percentage in MLB, and grounded into the 12th fewest double plays.
Looking forward to the outcome of our bet... ;)
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 01-01-2023
(01-01-2023, 12:01 PM)Mick Wrote:(01-01-2023, 11:30 AM)lex24 Wrote:(01-01-2023, 11:02 AM)Mick Wrote: I'm optimistic about 2023. I really like the Giants' FA moves so far, and they're not done. Not getting Judge or Correa isn't a dealbreaker for me. I think Correa would have been an absolute disaster -- he's a broken player. And Judge will be strong for another year or two, then tail off.
Here's why I am optimistic about the Giants in 2023:
1. In my view, 2022 was an outlier year to the negative side. They happen sometimes. The breaks don't go your way. I think we'll do better next year. I don't think they'll all have career years, although that's what happened in 2021, so there's precedent for career years for all starters. I think the Giants, with the new FAs, the new positioning rules, the shorter time pitchers have between pitches, Joc at DH instead of in the field, will improve the team's collective OPS to .750 from about .704. And if they have career years, their collective OPS might be north of .800.
2. And it wouldn't be a miracle for fielding to improve, it would be reverting to form. Last year, the Giants were 29th in MLB in fielding, but the year before they were 8th as measured by Rtot. The new positioning rules will benefit the Giants fielders.
3. Just six more wins last season, and the Giants would have tied the Phillies with 87 wins (SF owned the series, 5-1) and would have made the playoffs. Seven more wins and they would have matched the 2014 WLS team's regular season win total.
4. The trend, BTW, points towards improvement--the Giants won 12 of their last 16 games, 16 of their last 24 and 20 of their last 33, including 2-8 against the Dodgers and Padres. In other words, they won 18 of their last 25 against the rest of the league in September and October. Don't forget, they don't play the Padres and Dodgers 38 times in 2022 (against whom they were a collective 10-28), in 2023 it's just 26, 13 games each.
5. They lose Rodon, but they gain DeSclefani, Stripling, Taylor and Manaea. They keep their strong relievers and will lose their weak ones.
6. Farhan's been in charge since 2019. The Giants' winning percentage has improved in three of the four years that he's been in charge. That's a pretty good track record -- and it would have been essentially impossible to improve on the .660 winning percentage from a 107-55 season. For everyone who thinks the Giants will win fewer than 81 games, well you're bucking a 75% improvement trend in favor of regression.
I think 2021 was outlier to the upside -- everything went right. 2022 was an outlier to the downside. Average pitching, average hitting, nearly the worst fielding in the league. I'm not even saying we finish in between the two win totals, which would be (107-81)/2 = 13 additional wins over the 81. I don't think they'll win 94. But I think they can win 87 or more. And 87 would have put them in a six-team playoff four of the last five full seasons.
The new positioning rules will hurt the Giants defensively. They were very good at using shifts. Slow. Range issues. Corners on infield a major issue. Outfield will be better. But it’s still a questionable, at best, defense.
September run is meaningless. 6 were against a Rockies team that quit. Schedule helped. And I never trust September for a non-contending team.
Giants will be fortunate to hold off DBacks for third in Division.
But your right, if a bunch of guys have career years, they could be a little better than average.
I wonder. I don't have 2022 stats, but in 2021, the Dodgers shifted the most in MLB, the Giants were 18th against lefties and 29th against righties. Sounds to me like the rules would hit the Dodgers more than the Giants. And in general, a shift ban will make power hitting lefties more valuable. Yastrzemski, Pederson, Wade, Crawford, should do well.
I can't recall who made the comment about the Giants being old and slow. I'll just mention that the four oldest teams in MLB are the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Giants. I think the fans of at least three of those teams should be very happy. And as far as slow is concerned, the Giants had the 5th best stolen base percentage in MLB, and grounded into the 12th fewest double plays.
Looking forward to the outcome of our bet... ;)
Giants were the slowest team in baseball last year. One of the slowest I’ve ever seen. Dead last in MLB getting runners waived from second on a single. If you spent much time watching last year, you know how slow they were. They will be slow again this year. A little less than last, but still slow.
At one point last year Giants defense led league in outs added by shifts. Krukow often remarked on it. But do you really need metrics? Davis/Wade/Flores at 1B. Estrada 2b. Craw SS. Villar/Flores/Davis at third. Besides Craw, that’s a poor infield. Although I’m hopeful Estrada will improve.
OF should be better. But it’s still, at best, average. Yaz very good in RF. Not as strong in CF. Slater is perplexing. Good speed, good arm. But he gets bad jumps - especially going back, takes bad angles and throws to the wrong base a lot. Haniger is, I believe an average RF. At best. Ditto Conforto. But average in LF will be a massive improvement.
Bart- jury is out. Wynns wasn’t bad. Pitchers seem to like him.
It’s simply not a good group defensively. Infielders with more ground to cover is not going to help them. Add the fact that the pitching staff is full of guys that throw ground balls and “hit it to Crawford” is never more true.
Last, but not least, I’ll believe the Giants are serious about improving defense when they don’t move people all over the place, put whatever body they have in left field on occasion and do their continual line changes early on in games. It’s always about platooning to gain an offensive edge. Well, they pay a defensive price. They paid lip service about improving the defense last year. And then they stuck Yermin Mercedes in left field.
One thing that might help is picking up a left-handed hitting infielder that is strong defensively. Joey Wendle from Miami would fit the bill. They just signed Segura. So, he may be available. Not real strong bat. But he’s very good defensively and he can run
Said before - hope you win the bet Frankly, most likely outcome is the middle.