Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-04-2022

I've read some articles recently about the potential for Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO.  Popular support in Finland went from something like 25% to 60% since last Fall, and some prominent politicians in Finland now seem to favor it as well.  Given that Finland and Sweden already cooperate extensively with NATO, would accession be productive, or a needless provocation, or a nothingburger?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 04-04-2022

I've never understood why Russia didn't seek broader relations with the west.  Their people would be so much better off.  And maybe that's what Gorbachev and Yeltsin wanted.  And then came Putin.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 04-04-2022

(04-04-2022, 04:44 PM)Mick Wrote:  I've never understood why Russia didn't seek broader relations with the west.  Their people would be so much better off.  And maybe that's what Gorbachev and Yeltsin wanted.  And then came Putin.

Unfortunately, Yeltsin was a drunk, and that really curtailed the West's ability to work with him.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - thatboy - 04-04-2022

(04-04-2022, 04:44 PM)Mick Wrote:  I've never understood why Russia didn't seek broader relations with the west.  Their people would be so much better off.  And maybe that's what Gorbachev and Yeltsin wanted.  And then came Putin.

This video from the Hoover Institute goes into a little bit. It's an interview with Russian historian Stephen Kotkin. It's one of the best things I've seen in the last month regarding Russia, Ukraine, etc.  I ended up watching (listening) twice. I highly recommend it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylaC0MUleZs

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-04-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1511098952933945347?s=21&t=CE7-ZvnwR9BGIczU-Sm_0A[/tweet]

Good thread on what might be next.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-05-2022

Soon, “more useless than a Russian tank in Ukraine” is going to become an expression.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1510632351050899456?s=21&t=CE7-ZvnwR9BGIczU-Sm_0A[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 04-05-2022

The UN is discussing suspending Russia from the UN Human Rights Council today, and Zelenskyy made a compelling case for why, while also challenging the UN to reimagine and reorganize itself to stop this nonsense from happening again.

The UN Sec. General opened the proceedings pointing out the cascading humanitarian and economic crisis Putin's War is creating for the entire world. Like, it could create tensions that create more violence and civil strife well away from Ukraine and Russia. Then, he spoke the truth that matters most when he said the only way to save ourselves from what is driving so many problems is to transition to renewable energy.  

This may be too much of a political statement for the board's liking, but the evidence demonstrates we have reached a moment in time where authoritarianism is on the side of the fossil fuel energy, and democracy is on the side of renewable energy. I know what is ultimately going to win. The question is how much damage does humanity do to the world it inhabits and to the people who inhabit it while the transition happens.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Softball Fan - 04-05-2022

(04-05-2022, 08:26 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:   ...authoritarianism is on the side of the fossil fuel energy, and democracy is on the side of renewable energy...

What does this nebulous proclamation have to do with the military conflict currently going on in Ukraine?  OutsiderFan you are using this thread as a platform to spew out your left-wing perceptions.

I would prefer this thread be locked than to allow irrelevant babbling.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-05-2022

Ukraine is getting tanks from Czechia. I don't have a WSJ sub, so not sure if they report how long this has been happening, but pretty notable. And perhaps Ukraine has been getting other goodies we don't yet know about. Has anyone counted the Polish MIGs recently?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-quietly-receives-tanks-from-czech-republic-to-support-war-effort-11649160666

Also notable-

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/CarlaBabbVOA/status/1511389374281396224?s=20&t=Z7ypNdZAA5G_NPbeV9tK1A[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 04-05-2022

(04-05-2022, 09:34 AM)paloalto Wrote:  

(04-05-2022, 08:26 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:   ...authoritarianism is on the side of the fossil fuel energy, and democracy is on the side of renewable energy...

What does this nebulous proclamation have to do with the military conflict currently going on in Ukraine?  OutsiderFan you are using this thread as a platform to spew out your left-wing perceptions.

I would prefer this thread be locked than to allow irrelevant babbling.

It's not nebulous. It's not "left wing" either. Let me connect the dots.

Russia's revenue is 45% from oil and gas production. 

It uses money from selling it to fund its war operations in Ukraine, which has significant cascading effects - hard economic and humanitarian costs - the world over.

Because some European countries have become dependent on Russian fossil fuel to run their economies, they can't stop buying it without damaging themselves, which continues funding war. India is in the same position with Russian oil and gas.

Then consider countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela who are all anti-democratic and also rely on fossil fuels to fund themselves. They are in a cartel that controls oil prices that have a direct impact on global socioeconomic stability.

All this against a backdrop of a warming planet driven by fossil fuel burning that creates its own catastrophic problems.

So all the available data doesn't just support the idea, it proves fossil fuels are a root cause of most problems we face, including creeping autocracy reliant on fossil fuels and doing all they can to thwart renewable energy. This is why the Secretary General of the United Nations said it, and why I am amplifying what he said. Anyone who doesn't believe the issue is inextricably linked to Putin's War on Ukraine is just not paying attention or willfully naive.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-05-2022

(04-05-2022, 11:10 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  So all the available data doesn't just support the idea, it proves fossil fuels are a root cause of most problems we face, including creeping autocracy reliant on fossil fuels and doing all they can to thwart renewable energy. This is why the Secretary General of the United Nations said it, and why I am amplifying what he said. Anyone who doesn't believe the issue is inextricably linked to Putin's War on Ukraine is just not paying attention or willfully naive.

This kind of logic takes my breath away. The thrust of the argument seems to be that autocracy is caused by exporting fossil fuels, and if energy becomes "free" autocracy will disappear. Well, China imports fossil fuels and is an autocracy, so it isn't true that exporting fossil fuels is a prerequisite. Argentina was an an autocracy when it occupied the Falklands. They were not exporters of fossil fuels either AFAIK. History is replete with wars started and fought by autocracies that had plenty of fuels (Iran/Iraq) and had no fuels (China/Japan). For that matter, during the entire cold war Russia didn't export much fuel. They were still an autocracy and arguably started several "proxy wars" at least. How about North Korea? No oil there, they are a relatively poor country, and they for sure started a war.

Fossil fuels are like any other source of financial strength a nation possesses. If you have enough gold or diamonds, that works. If you make lots of money building cars, that's OK too. Yes, impoverished nations have trouble attacking their neighbors. Sometimes they do it anyway, possibly because they are impoverished. If you are an autocracy, you can use your resources (whatever they are) to finance war.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Softball Fan - 04-05-2022

(04-05-2022, 08:26 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  ...authoritarianism is on the side of the fossil fuel energy, and democracy is on the side of renewable energy...

Since irrelevant politics is apparently allowed on this thread:

Authoritarian China, while continuing to build coal-fired plants, is doing extensive research into alternate energy sources.  China makes the majority of the solar panels used in the United States.

Some non-democratic Middle East OPEC Countries are putting a large amount of resources into renewable energy sources.

The United States is doing everything it can to import fossil fuels from Iran and Venezuela.  The United States is releasing a million barrels of oil per day for six months from the Strategic Reserve.  This oil is primarily for refining into gasoline to put into ICE cars so they can produce carbon emissions to destroy the planet.  So is the United States under the current administration an authoritarian regime?  According to your all-compassing, either/or, no-gray-area proclamation they are.

I won’t go down to your level and proclaim anyone with a different opinion than me is “willfully naive”.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-05-2022

Going to put this thread on a temporary time out.  OF, I asked you nicely to keep stuff like global warming off this thread. I’m sympathetic to your views, but it is not relevant.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-06-2022

I unlocked the thread. Please keep this thread limited to discussion of the Ukraine conflict. If you have to preface a comment with “This may be too much of a political statement for the board's liking”, then it probably is. Please feel free to post such a comment at the appropriate forum.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - martyup - 04-06-2022

(04-06-2022, 08:34 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  I unlocked the thread. Please keep this thread limited to discussion of the Ukraine conflict. If you have to preface a comment with “This may be too much of a political statement for the board's liking”, then it probably is. Please feel free to post such a comment at the appropriate forum.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BigEasyCard - 04-06-2022

I have wondered about the extent to which corruption in the military procurement process has impacted the Russian military's performance in Ukraine.  This recent article indicates corruption to be a significant issue:

Russian military’s corruption quagmire – POLITICO

I have no way of verifying the claims, but the narrative seems plausible.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-06-2022

Interesting, last months attack on the Russian warship might have left a lasting impact.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-surprise-strike-on-russian-fleet-hobbles-putins-donbas-strategy-11649250001

Quote:Since the strike, Russia had withdrawn all but three ships from the Azov Sea as of last week, a U.S. senior defense official said, hindering Moscow’s ability to supply troops in the Ukrainian south.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-06-2022

The WSJ cites a former Ukrainian Navy captain saying the strike was with a Tochka-U SRBM, which Wikipedia says has a CEP (circular error probable) of 70M, or 50% likelihood of striking within 70M of the input target, so pretty fortunate hit unless Ukraine launched a bunch. Hopefully we will get a fuller story in the future. Tochka-U had been rumored from the beginning as the cause.

There has to be plenty of Harpoon or Exocet missiles lying around that NATO could get to Ukraine. Those would get Russia off their coastline for sure, though not far enough that Russian ships couldn't attack with their Kalibr missiles, which have a much farther range.

Perhaps they already have some-
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/nato-ukraine-russia-antiship-missiles-b2043828.html

Also some unconfirmed reports Ukraine may have used their own indigenous Neptune antiship missiles against a Russian vessel attacking Odessa.

https://eurasiantimes.com/ukraine-destroying-russian-warship-using-neptune-cruise-missile/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-06-2022

(04-06-2022, 05:54 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  The WSJ cites a former Ukrainian Navy captain saying the strike was with a Tochka-U SRBM, which Wikipedia says has a CEP (circular error probable) of 70M, or 50% likelihood of striking within 70M of the input target, so pretty fortunate hit unless Ukraine launched a bunch. Hopefully we will get a fuller story in the future. Tochka-U had been rumored from the beginning as the cause.

There has to be plenty of Harpoon or Exocet missiles lying around that NATO could get to Ukraine. Those would get Russia off their coastline for sure, though not far enough that Russian ships couldn't attack with their Kalibr missiles, which have a much farther range.

The Exocet has not been used as a land-based system AFAIK. The Harpoon has, but only in very limited numbers a long while ago. The Harpoon is not already in Ukrainian inventory and would require significant training. It is actually unclear how well the land based one would work, as AFAIK only Denmark ever had any and have none now. As I have said before, IMHO if NATO is going to supply anything the SS-N-2 Styx is a good choice. It would be better to get something newer, but it needs to be something that doesn't require massive retraining.

Shooting a Tochka-U at an anchored ship of that size is a fools errand. There are better uses of the limited number of these missiles the Ukrainians have, and I am sure they know that. It may be they figured hitting the pier was also a probable mission kill and they went for it, but I kind of doubt it. Unless they were feeling real lucky, it was probably something else. Sabotage or somebody sneaking in close with a Javelin seems possible, The nearby oil tank burning seems to have ignited secondary explosions on the ship. This is consistent with such an explanation. I would expect a Tochka-U hitting an Alligator class ship squarely would blow it in half. It has a big warhead.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-06-2022

Argentina fired some Exocets from an improvised land based setup during the Falklands, hitting a British destroyer. If the Argentinians could figure it out, I'm certain the Urkainians could.

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