Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-20-2023

(08-20-2023, 08:31 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Netherlands and Denmark announced the donation of their F16's today, as expected.

Good article on road ahead now.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-f-16-combat-proficiency-at-scale-not-likely-before-2027-air-force-general-says

Quote:But even if Ukraine does get F-16s next year, it won't likely have enough pilots who can fly them into combat to anywhere near their potential before 2027, Hecker said.

“You can get proficient on some weapons systems fairly quickly. “It takes a while to build a couple of squadrons of F-16s and to get their readiness high enough and their proficiency high enough. This could be four or five years down the road.”

Indeed a really good article. It does cover a lot of the issues in training new aviators. One point that I think clearly needs to be made is that the delays in getting this started are pretty unconscionable. The young pilots first have to take a 3 month English class. That isn't an "act of war" and could have been started (as suggested) in spring of 2022. They then have to spend time on the prop driven trainer aircraft and then move on to the Alpha Jets. All of this could have happened while everybody was going to and fro about whether to actually give the Ukrainians F-16s. If we never did, Ukraine would have some really good candidate airline pilots.
 
At that point, these "new" pilots could then learn to fly the F-16 as a combat aviator. If they had 500 hours in a Western fighter and spoke fluent English, the article says it would take 69 days going full tilt to make them minimally combat capable. This includes flying the jet quite a bit. In the winter in Europe there are weeks where you can't fly VFR, or maybe at all. It could easily take six months to accomplish this training given the lack of experience, language, and weather problems. So, had this effort started in May of 2022, Ukraine would have had some kind of IOC by May of 2023. As the article points out, the pilots would be very short on experience. Who would fly lead would be a great question :).

There are also some more experienced Ukrainian pilots that are in the pipeline, or so we have been told. The article refers to asking a question in that regard. Unfortunately some experience indicates that Soviet trained pilots have trouble transitioning to western aircraft. That was certainly the German experience. These pilots want to fly the F-16 like it was a Mig-29, which it isn't. Not a good candidate to lead a formation. That said, maybe the Ukrainians would be different. That said, it must be remembered that the USAF talks about 2027 FOC as if they are not at war and have all the time in the world. This conservatism is legendary, but falls away fast when a war starts. I suspect Ukraine understands that.

Quote:Seems that even if they had been fast tracked from the start, they would not really have made a substantial difference in the current offensive. Still will be a good capability to have at some point obviously.

Well, if they started when it was first suggested, they would be at IOC + 3 months right now. Obviously they didn't, and here we are. That is one way wars are lost, unfortunately.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 81alum - 08-22-2023

It seems there are US brass who are getting irritated with Ukraine's strategy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/us/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war.html

Quote:Ukraine’s grinding counteroffensive is struggling to break through entrenched Russian defenses in large part because it has too many troops, including some of its best combat units, in the wrong places, American and other Western officials say

Quote:American planners have advised Ukraine to concentrate on the front driving toward Melitopol, Kyiv’s top priority, and on punching through Russian minefields and other defenses, even if the Ukrainians lose more soldiers and equipment in the process.

Quote:Under American war doctrine, there is always a main effort to ensure that maximum resources go to a single front, even if supporting forces are fighting in other areas to hedge against failure or spread-out enemy defenses.  But Ukraine and Russia fight under old Soviet Communist doctrine, which seeks to minimize rivalries among factions of the army by providing equal amounts of manpower and equipment across commands. Both armies have failed to prioritize their most important objectives, officials say

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - rogpodge - 08-22-2023

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/

The NY Times and the Washington Post with negative articles.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-22-2023

(08-22-2023, 11:13 AM)81alum Wrote:  It seems there are US brass who are getting irritated with Ukraine's strategy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/us/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war.html

Quote:Ukraine’s grinding counteroffensive is struggling to break through entrenched Russian defenses in large part because it has too many troops, including some of its best combat units, in the wrong places, American and other Western officials say

Quote:American planners have advised Ukraine to concentrate on the front driving toward Melitopol, Kyiv’s top priority, and on punching through Russian minefields and other defenses, even if the Ukrainians lose more soldiers and equipment in the process.

Quote:Under American war doctrine, there is always a main effort to ensure that maximum resources go to a single front, even if supporting forces are fighting in other areas to hedge against failure or spread-out enemy defenses.  But Ukraine and Russia fight under old Soviet Communist doctrine, which seeks to minimize rivalries among factions of the army by providing equal amounts of manpower and equipment across commands. Both armies have failed to prioritize their most important objectives, officials say

The US military wants Ukraine to fight as we fight. They are disciples of Clausewitz's schwerpunkt and concentration of force.  The problem is that the Russians are not. They have always spread out their forces and attempted to engage everywhere. The idea that this is driven by politics among factions  is only very slightly true. It is also a product of training and a basic lack of mobility. It is a very deeply ingrained process of thinking. Both Ukraine and Russia are organized and socialized to fight that way. 90 days of training at Grafenwöhr isn't going to change that. Many, including me, hoped it would, but that was just unrealistic.

The Russian method also works if you have a larger mass of troops and equipment than your opponent. Eventually, your opponent will run out of men in the battle of attrition. Ukraine fights like Russia because that is all they know. They don't have the ability to execute well coordinated combined arms operations. When they tried, something always went wrong. Not surprising. It takes lots of training and practice. They had neither.

Ukraine is trying to break through using their traditional tactics updated to the new threats and modified to minimize troop losses. Ukraine can't afford the losses Russia can because there are fewer Ukrainians. This is probably their only way ahead in the short term. Not flashy, but it can work. The US should look to our own history where the Union Army did basically that to the Army of Northern Virginia. After Cold Harbor, Grant knew he couldn't use the "breakthrough" approach at a single point. It was too costly. Just keep pressing until the other side caves in. The complaints we are seeing today from the US Military can be compared to the same complaints directed towards Eisenhower. His insistence on closing up to the German border everywhere was roundly criticized, particularly by some of the UK generals. A bit ironic because Eisenhower's caution was at least partly formed from fear of the UK running out of infantry. Market Garden was an attempt at a breakthrough at the most important point. It didn't work. Many things went wrong. Maybe the Ukrainians have something here.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 08-23-2023

This is quite impressive given the location of this S-400 system, and that Ukraine has direct footage.  I wonder how this UAV was not targeted and I wonder what Ukraine used to hit this system.  

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1694296780488216627?s=20]https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1694296780488216627?s=20[/tweet]

Also this story is quite interesting as well.  Hopefully more of these to come, but securing the families of these pilots is probably the hardest part.  

[tweet]https://twitter.com/reshetz/status/1694344581620404554?s=20]https://twitter.com/reshetz/status/1694344581620404554?s=20[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 08-23-2023

I saw this on the BBC news feed but didn't see it on other news feeds that I check.

"Ukrainian drone destroys Russian supersonic bomber" near St, Petersburg.
The suggestion is that it was a short range drone attacking a target 400 miles from Ukraine.

There was an unverified report of another military aircraft damaged in another area of Russia.


A few days back, I pointed to a story about General Surovikin.   More of the same today, but I noticed this in today's story:

Quote:Before Gen Surovikin was put in charge of the operation [Ukraine invasion], the war effort was run by Col-Gen Gennady Zhidko. He died in Moscow last week after what officials said was a "lengthy illness".

Russian Generals certainly have a short life expectancy.  (But, hey, to be fair, it could have been COVID.)

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triangle2 - triangle2 - 08-23-2023

Speaking of short life expectancy. From Reuters - breaking news: Prigozhin allegedly on private jet that has crashed with no survivors.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ten-killed-private-jet-crash-north-moscow-tass-2023-08-23/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 08-23-2023

It's now being report both Prigozhin and Utkin were on board, among other leaders in Wagner.  Man I hope this leads to something big against Russia, but who knows...

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 08-23-2023

(08-23-2023, 10:51 AM)Treefence Wrote:  It's now being report both Prigozhin and Utkin were on board, among other leaders in Wagner.  Man I hope this leads to something big against Russia, but who knows...

Man, will be interesting to see the repercussions. . . . .

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 08-23-2023

I wonder how the Wagner forces will react?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Nan3cy - 08-23-2023

I guess the guy was avoiding tall buildings?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - qwerty49 - 08-23-2023

Actually he faked it and he's hiding out with JFK Jr and DB Cooper in a penthouse in Dubai.

I did wonder why he stopped his forces short of Moscow at the time.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - CompSci87 - 08-23-2023

(08-23-2023, 02:13 PM)qwerty49 Wrote:  Actually he faked it and he's hiding out with JFK Jr and DB Cooper in a penthouse in Dubai.

LOL

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 08-23-2023

(08-23-2023, 02:13 PM)qwerty49 Wrote:  Actually he faked it and he's hiding out with JFK Jr and DB Cooper in a penthouse in Dubai.

I did wonder why he stopped his forces short of Moscow at the time.

It doesn't help that there were reports of a second plane he had... I'm just waiting for the conspiracy theories...

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-23-2023

Until they find the body I am not convinced he was on the flight. Even if they produce a body, unless it can be independently DNA identified, I am not convinced. Not that I don't believe Putin or any principal in the Russian military wouldn't do it, but rather that their target is no dummy and has shown the ability to disappear only to show up later. Would he actually allow his name to be on an official passenger list? All that does is announce a targeting opportunity. It may be so, but I am not yet convinced :).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-23-2023

(08-23-2023, 07:12 AM)Treefence Wrote:  This is quite impressive given the location of this S-400 system, and that Ukraine has direct footage.  I wonder how this UAV was not targeted and I wonder what Ukraine used to hit this system.  



https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1694296780488216627?s=20]https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1694296780488216627?s=20

It is not at all surprising that the S-400 launch complex 98ZH6E did not detect the UAV. That is not it's function. It is supposed to be handed targets by the 91N6E or equivalent. The launch complex has a very limited search capability. Normally, it should never have to search much. Much like the Patriot, the 91N6E has "filters" to eliminate detections that are not considered threats. The minimum velocity is undoubtedly one of the parameters. It was set for faster targets. Bad choice, as it happens, assuming an acqusition radar was actually being used.

The real strange factor is that the S-400 systems in this war do NOT seem to being used as designed. The acquisition  radars aren't being used and the batteries are being expected to find their own targets. This is contrary to the Russian CONOPS, although we have seen this before with BUK systems that have similar limitations. Why? Who knows.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 08-23-2023

(08-23-2023, 05:58 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(08-23-2023, 07:12 AM)Treefence Wrote:  This is quite impressive given the location of this S-400 system, and that Ukraine has direct footage.  I wonder how this UAV was not targeted and I wonder what Ukraine used to hit this system.  



https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1694296780488216627?s=20]https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1694296780488216627?s=20

It is not at all surprising that the S-400 launch complex 98ZH6E did not detect the UAV. That is not it's function. It is supposed to be handed targets by the 91N6E or equivalent. The launch complex has a very limited search capability. Normally, it should never have to search much. Much like the Patriot, the 91N6E has "filters" to eliminate detections that are not considered threats. The minimum velocity is undoubtedly one of the parameters. It was set for faster targets. Bad choice, as it happens, assuming an acqusition radar was actually being used.

The real strange factor is that the S-400 systems in this war do NOT seem to being used as designed. The acquisition  radars aren't being used and the batteries are being expected to find their own targets. This is contrary to the Russian CONOPS, although we have seen this before with BUK systems that have similar limitations. Why? Who knows.

Goose, do the acquisition radars for the S-400's work similar to Patriots, in that it's easy to detect their location when the are turned on?  If so, is it possible they fear Storm Shadow attacks taking out their radars for too long of a time?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 08-24-2023

US has announced info about training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 in the US.
"US will start training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s in October"

Part of the delay is learning English better.
"several pilots and dozens of maintainers"
"Ukraine put forward a list of approximately 32 pilots who are ready to begin training on F-16 fighter jets, according to another US official"
"Davis-Monthan Air Force base hosted two Ukrainian fighter pilots in March to evaluate how fast they can learn to fly the F-16, a program which showed the Ukrainian pilot demonstrated above average abilities in several different areas."

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-24-2023

(08-24-2023, 12:49 PM)M T Wrote:  US has announced info about training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 in the US.
"US will start training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s in October"

Part of the delay is learning English better.
"several pilots and dozens of maintainers"
"Ukraine put forward a list of approximately 32 pilots who are ready to begin training on F-16 fighter jets, according to another US official"
"Davis-Monthan Air Force base hosted two Ukrainian fighter pilots in March to evaluate how fast they can learn to fly the F-16, a program which showed the Ukrainian pilot demonstrated above average abilities in several different areas."

Glad we are finally doing this. If they start in October and it is a 6 month program, we get pilots who can probably fly the jet adequately in the April-May time frame. Their ability to actually operate an air "offensive" will be pretty shaky at that point, particularly without any "old hands" to lead them. That said, Ukraine needs an air force. Hopefully the issue will still be relevant by next summer.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 81alum - 08-25-2023

(08-22-2023, 02:14 PM)Goose Wrote:  .
The US military wants Ukraine to fight as we fight. They are disciples of Clausewitz's schwerpunkt and concentration of force.  The problem is that the Russians are not. They have always spread out their forces and attempted to engage everywhere. The idea that this is driven by politics among factions  is only very slightly true. It is also a product of training and a basic lack of mobility. It is a very deeply ingrained process of thinking. Both Ukraine and Russia are organized and socialized to fight that way. 90 days of training at Grafenwöhr isn't going to change that. Many, including me, hoped it would, but that was just unrealistic.

The Russian method also works if you have a larger mass of troops and equipment than your opponent. Eventually, your opponent will run out of men in the battle of attrition. Ukraine fights like Russia because that is all they know. They don't have the ability to execute well coordinated combined arms operations. When they tried, something always went wrong. Not surprising. It takes lots of training and practice. They had neither.

Ukraine is trying to break through using their traditional tactics updated to the new threats and modified to minimize troop losses. Ukraine can't afford the losses Russia can because there are fewer Ukrainians. This is probably their only way ahead in the short term. Not flashy, but it can work. The US should look to our own history where the Union Army did basically that to the Army of Northern Virginia. After Cold Harbor, Grant knew he couldn't use the "breakthrough" approach at a single point. It was too costly. Just keep pressing until the other side caves in. The complaints we are seeing today from the US Military can be compared to the same complaints directed towards Eisenhower. His insistence on closing up to the German border everywhere was roundly criticized, particularly by some of the UK generals. A bit ironic because Eisenhower's caution was at least partly formed from fear of the UK running out of infantry. Market Garden was an attempt at a breakthrough at the most important point. It didn't work. Many things went wrong. Maybe the Ukrainians have something here.

Goose, this is a question about military history and the evolution of strategy.  Why would any major power adopt the military strategy of Russia and Ukraine given the historical examples of blitzkreig in WWII, Stormin Normin, etc.?  What general in his right mind would want to replay WWI, Iran/Iraq, etc. when there is an alternative strategy of movement?  Did the Soviets/Russians learn the wrong lessons from WWII?  Zhukov was not an "attack everywhere equally" kind of guy.  The Stalingrad trap involved a concentration of Soviet forces north and south of the city, no? 

But even if the Soviet/Russians decided that their main advantage was with numbers and attrition, what in heaven's name is Ukraine doing?  They are a smaller, less populated nation that will inevitably lose a war of attrition with a much larger nation.  It does not take a Sun Tzu or a Clausewitz to realize that their greatest hope is with a fast war of movement, akin to Israel 1967, France 1940, Schwarzkopf 1991, etc.  A grind-it-out war over a period of years cannot be to Ukraine's advantage.  So why is Ukraine lapsing back into old Russian military doctrine after 32 years of independence?

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