Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-25-2023

FWIW there's photo and video evidence of two different choppers and a plane destroyed that I have seen. And the RuAF associated telegram channels are pretty reliable when it comes to reporting their losses. The press has been well behind telegram/twitter (from where they source most of their reporting on this), though yes all initial reports should be accepted cautiously.


[Tweet]https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672540871286222850?s=20[/tweet]

This is an interesting near miss

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672557378137468931?s=20[/tweet]

Less fortunate Ka52 and Mi8

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1672640214513090562?s=20[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1673011508559638529?s=20[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 06-25-2023

To carry the mob analogies further...

It sounds like a good metaphor for what faces Shoigu is Sal Tessio (from The Godfather). Shoigu didn't set up a meeting to help kill the boss, but he is now going to be totally blamed for everything Ukraine invasion and is a dead man walking at least from a career perspective if this is true:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1673072309668544513[/tweet]

This is yet another reason Putin is finished. If you can't survive in your job by being loyal to the crime boss, that boss doesn't really have the power.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-26-2023

https://www.yahoo.com/news/wagner-group-leader-explains-lukashenko-152210152.html

Well, Prigozhin has said:

Quote:Lukashenko extended his hand and offered to find solutions for the further work of Wagner Private Military Company in a legal jurisdiction.

So, if true, the Wagner Company can continue to operate from Belarus and do Putin's "dirty work" outside Russia. They just can't operate inside Russia any more as everybody has to sign contracts with the Russian MOD. Sounds a bit like the FFL. Wagner's offices inside Russia are supposedly open and signing up recruits, but whether it is for the "new" Wagner or the Russian Army is unknown, to me at least.

What the actual fallout to Prigozhin will be is IMO still TBD. Many in Russia are still calling for his head. What will happen at the highest levels of the Russian Army is still TBD as well. Shoigu has been "seen", but only on video apparently, so the date may be in question. Even if Putin intends to replace the current leadership, he isn't going to do it very soon. He can't appear to have been forced. Of course, they could fall out of a window, but I doubt that is the plan. What it all means is still TBD as far as I can tell. It also may not be known to Putin, as he may have to take steps he would prefer not to in order to keep everybody "inside the tent".

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 06-26-2023

What response might be done if Wagner troops attack Ukraine from Belarus?

Is it simply that Ukraine would then have another active front, or would someone step on Belarus in a way to stop this spread of the war to another aggressor country?

I expect Ukraine has some force at the border to Belarus, but I presume insufficient numbers and equipment to block Wagner.

Could this all have been a ploy to excuse a "non-Russian" army attacking Ukraine from another nation?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-26-2023

(06-26-2023, 01:07 PM)M T Wrote:  What response might be done if Wagner troops attack Ukraine from Belarus?

Is it simply that Ukraine would then have another active front, or would someone step on Belarus in a way to stop this spread of the war to another aggressor country?

I expect Ukraine has some force at the border to Belarus, but I presume insufficient numbers and equipment to block Wagner.

Could this all have been a ploy to excuse a "non-Russian" army attacking Ukraine from another nation?

It could be such a ploy. I even suggested as much. However, Condoleezza Rice (and others) have said they highly doubt it, FWIW :-). The Ukraine has been sensitive to this possibility all along. They are acutely aware that Kiev is very close to the Border with Belarus, and they keep significant forces in the area as a safety net. They know that they may not have a long time to react to an invasion. It is wise to remember that Wagner relied on lots of "help" from regular Russian forces around Bakhmut. They were bitching when they didn't get the support they wanted. Belarus probably can't provide even that much "help". Wagner probably is not as much of a threat as it might seem. That said, it is just one more thing to worry about for Ukraine.

IMO, if Putin lets Prigozhin live and allows Wagner to continue in operation, it will because he wants to use them in Africa and the Middle East. Allowing them into Ukraine will just keep the split between them and the Russian military going, which is not what one would think Putin would want. Or does he? Keeping everybody guessing seems to have been his game for a long time. Maybe he also intends Wagner to backstop Lukashenko. Wagner troops, many of whom could be Belorussian (if the money is good) may be less objectionable than Russian troops as far as the local population goes.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 06-27-2023

Wagner is not going to be attacking Ukraine from Belarus. It's being reported that Wagner is being given three options.

1. Sign contract with MOD Russia
2. Go to Belarus
3. Go back your civilian life

Also seen reports of Wagner giving its heavy weapons back to Russia.  

I don't think anyone knows WTF is really going on. Putin and his propaganda machine will put on a brave face, and are now absurdly claiming Putin is now enjoying 90% support after the coup attempt. But anyone with any thinking skills knows nobody can trust anyone. It's easy to if not topple, de-stablize the government. The thing to watch now is what happens with Shoigu and Gerasimov. If they are in fact replaced by guys friendly to Prigozhin, the coup worked.

What I can't figure out is what leverage does Prigozhin have to force his own guys into MOD. He would only stand down if he has assurances - not from Putin - he will get what he ultimately wants.

So you'll see Russia parading Putin around like he is in charge. I'm skeptical that he really still is.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-27-2023

(06-27-2023, 05:37 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Wagner is not going to be attacking Ukraine from Belarus. It's being reported that Wagner is being given three options.

1. Sign contract with MOD Russia
2. Go to Belarus
3. Go back your civilian life

Also seen reports of Wagner giving its heavy weapons back to Russia.

The heavy weapons never belonged to Wagner. They were always "borrowed". They also had relatively few of them because, among other things, they were not useful around Bakhmut. Wagner also was, at it's core, a "small" organization. In order to fight successfuly in Bakhmut, they had to recruit heavily, which lowered their quality. In addition, they had to supply their own "cannon fodder" from Russian prisons. In the middle east and Africa they use "local fighters" for this.  Not a sustainable model. However, that doesn't of itself mean that Wagner in Belarus isn't dangerous. If 8K (the number he supposedly had in his rebellion) go to Belarus, that is still a formidable force.

Quote:I don't think anyone knows WTF is really going on.

This is absolutely true.

Quote:Putin and his propaganda machine will put on a brave face, and are now absurdly claiming Putin is now enjoying 90% support after the coup attempt. But anyone with any thinking skills knows nobody can trust anyone.

This is statically true in Russia, all the time. It is true that after an attempted coup, the "man in the street" that is forced to answer a poll is going to for sure say what he things is "safe". I suspect Putins support is actually 100% of those who want to live.

Quote:It's easy to if not topple, de-stablize the government.

Really? Looks to me like Putin is still there. As you say, nobody knows what is going on.

Quote:The thing to watch now is what happens with Shoigu and Gerasimov. If they are in fact replaced by guys friendly to Prigozhin, the coup worked.

Except since nobody can trust anybody, what are the odds these "friends" are going to subsequently be friendly to a guy who could turn on them?

Quote:What I can't figure out is what leverage does Prigozhin have to force his own guys into MOD. He would only stand down if he has assurances - not from Putin - he will get what he ultimately wants.

Which would mean nothing the moment he walks away from his troops and flees to Belarus. Remember, you can't trust anybody.

The following article sheds some pretty good light on what was going on IMO.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/glory-fading-russian-warlord-took-122243817.html

What this article leaves out is that Putin still has uses for Wagner, just not as a major arm of the Russian military. Mercenary armies are not effective in fighting a "total war" or a "people's war", which requires lots of troops. That was proved in the late 1700's if not before. Ask the Swiss.

Wagner and Prigozhin saw an opportunity to make even more money by supplying force on a very large scale in Ukraine. It turns out that unsurprisingly Wagner couldn't deliver. Competent mercs cost money, lots of it. Wagner and Russia don't have that kind of money. Wagner also didn't organically possess artillery, armor, helicopters, air support, a logistics train etc. Wagner's business model failed. They were an "artisan" shop, and can't deliver "mass production". Prigozhin found this out the hard way.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-27-2023

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kremlin-spent-over-1-billion-173521977.html

Well, indeed competent mercs do cost a lot of money. No telling how much Prigozhin kept for himself, but maybe not as much we might think. Prigozhin also got almost as much money from a catering contract to provide food to the Russian military. Obviously, these figures could be bogus, but I think we now know how Putin is going to "get" Prigozhin. It won't be for treason, it will be for stealing from the state. Putin can keep his word and kill Prigozhin anyway.

Quote:"Hopefully, nobody stole anything during these activities or, let's say, stole less," Putin said. "We will obviously look into all this."

I guess the definition of "less" is key here? Maybe Putin needed to dispense with Wagner because he simply couldn't afford them.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 06-27-2023

Items I found of interest in today's US announcement of $500M in aid for Ukraine.

Quote:The U.S. has at least $1.2 billion in drawdown authority that hasn’t yet been committed but will expire at the end of this fiscal year on Sept. 30. The remaining $1.9 billion in USAI funds does not expire until the end of the next fiscal year, in September 2024.

According to the Pentagon, the U.S. has delivered more than $15 billion in weapons and equipment from its stocks to Ukraine since the Russian invasion, and has committed an additional $6.2 billion in supplies that haven’t yet been identified. The more than $6 billion extra is the result of an accounting error, because the military services overestimated the value of the weapons they pulled off the shelves and sent to Ukraine over the past year.

The Pentagon in a statement said the U.S. will send 30 Bradley Fighting Vehicles and 25 of the armored Stryker vehicles to Ukraine, along with missiles for the High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and the Patriot air defense systems. The package includes Javelin and high-speed anti-radiation (HARM) missiles, demolition munitions, obstacle-clearing equipment and a wide range of artillery rounds and other ammunition.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 06-28-2023

Prigozhin seems to have massively miscalculated.

Russian General Sergei Surovikin, who some people had talked about as possibly taking over a top role in MOD as one of the conditions for Prigozhin calling off his coup, has now been arrested for enabling Prigizhin.

And this story says U.S. IC believes Russian Generals - like Surovikin - backed out of the coup after indicating they would support it. Kind of sounds like the reason Prigozhin called it off is because these Generals - for some reason - lacked the balls needed.

I certainly am curious what Prigozhin needed to see (specifically) to continue toward Moscow that he didn't. 

Prigozhin seems f-cked. My money is now on him being handed over to Russia for prosecution. I don't think the public statements that the case against Progozhin is closed can be trusted any more than anything else Russia says.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - needle - 06-28-2023

I find it very notable that shortly after Progozhin's march began, Surovikin spoke via video to urge the Wagner group to return to their stations. As I recall, he did so several hours before Putin spoke publicly.

https://news.sky.com/video/obey-will-of-putin-and-return-to-bases-says-deputy-commander-of-russias-forces-in-ukraine-12908785

However, an analyst favorite of mine believes---if the arrest news is even true, that is---Surovikin likely had nothing to do with Progozhin's march and is instead a victim of the prevailing politics: 

[tweet]https://twitter.com/kirlant/status/1674143417285083140 [/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 06-28-2023

Sergei Surovikin - who I believe was in cahoots with Prigozhin - might have experienced the Sal Tessio treatment:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1674147027679170562[/tweet]

I don't think ether guy wanted to go after Putin. I think they both had it in for Shoigu and Gerasimov.  They maybe thought Putin would capitulate to their demands to remove them, but Putin saw the move as undermining his authority, the only thing he really cares about.

It does seem Shoigu and Gerasimov are incompetent, but their loyalty to Putin outranks their incompetence. This is good for Ukraine.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - needle - 06-29-2023

Here's Seymour Hersh reporting the view of an unnamed source "in the American intelligence community":

Quote: "... the big army and Putin slowly changed their strategy from offensive conquest of greater Ukraine to defense of what they already had. Prigo refused to accept the change and continued on the offensive against Bakhmut. Therein lies the rub. Rather than create a public crisis and court-martial the asshole [Prigozhin], Moscow simply withheld the resources and let Prigo use up his manpower and firepower reserves, dooming him to a stand-down. He is, after all, no matter how cunning financially, an ex-hot dog cart owner with no political or military accomplishments.

“What we never heard is three months ago Wagner was cycled out of the Bakhmut front and sent to an abandoned barracks north of Rostov-on-Don [in southern Russia] for demobilization. The heavy equipment was mostly redistributed, and the force was reduced to about 8,000, 2,000 of which left for Rostov escorted by local police.

“Putin fully backed the army who let Prigo make a fool of himself and now disappear into ignominy. All without raising a sweat militarily or causing Putin to face a political standoff with the fundamentalists, who were ardent Prigo admirers. Pretty shrewd.” 

https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/prigozhins-folly?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

It's a good theory presented by a major critic of American support for Ukraine in this war, so keep that in mind.

I think analyses that conclude Putin acted "shrewdly" foolishly downplay what seems to be widening dysfunction within Russia's fighting forces, which I do believe is good for Ukraine. However, I feel like too many American talking heads overstate things the other way, painting a picture of a Russian military basically teetering on the verge of collapse w/mass desertions. We'll see, but it doesn't seem very likely to me.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-29-2023

https://www.yahoo.com/news/erdogan-slams-sweden-over-koran-141328348.html

For those of you who still expected this issue to just go away, it should seem clear at this late date that simply isn't going to happen. This is very much NOT a good look for NATO, and I don't see a way ahead. Bribing or threatening Erdoğan simply hasn't worked, and probably will not work. The US relationship with Türkiye is not good enough to allow us to "reason together". The US is in a difficult position because what Türkiye is becoming/has become is not compatible with our "world view". In Erdoğan's world, if a government (Sweden) doesn't like what somebody is doing, they stop them from doing it, period. If that government doesn't stop them, they support it. The "freedom of expression" argument simply doesn't have any traction or sympathy.

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(06-29-2023, 07:52 AM)needle Wrote:  Here's Seymour Hersh reporting the view of an unnamed source "in the American intelligence community":

Quote: "... the big army and Putin slowly changed their strategy from offensive conquest of greater Ukraine to defense of what they already had. Prigo refused to accept the change and continued on the offensive against Bakhmut. Therein lies the rub. Rather than create a public crisis and court-martial the asshole [Prigozhin], Moscow simply withheld the resources and let Prigo use up his manpower and firepower reserves, dooming him to a stand-down. He is, after all, no matter how cunning financially, an ex-hot dog cart owner with no political or military accomplishments.

This view ignores the fact that whatever else, "Prigo" had a contract to take Bakhmut. If Putin had really agreed with the concept that Russia should fully go on the defensive, all he had to do was cancel the contract and pay up. He didn't do that. Why? That action doesn't "square" with the idea Putin agreed. I suspect he was playing both sides against each other. Prigo lost that battle and instead of waiting for "next time", he went rogue.

Quote:

Quote:“What we never heard is three months ago Wagner was cycled out of the Bakhmut front and sent to an abandoned barracks north of Rostov-on-Don [in southern Russia] for demobilization. The heavy equipment was mostly redistributed, and the force was reduced to about 8,000, 2,000 of which left for Rostov escorted by local police.

“Putin fully backed the army who let Prigo make a fool of himself and now disappear into ignominy. All without raising a sweat militarily or causing Putin to face a political standoff with the fundamentalists, who were ardent Prigo admirers. Pretty shrewd.” 

Yes, it was pretty shrewd on the part of the military, but not shrewd by Putin. He has a public relations black eye of large proportions to deal with. The military is now in the position they have to "succeed" in Ukraine, whatever that is. One could argue they are no worse off, as that was on their plate anyway. The difference is that now they don't have the services of the crazed but sometimes effective Wagner forces. The military no longer risks sharing credit, but so too blame.

Quote:https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/prigozhins-folly?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

It's a good theory presented by a major critic of American support for Ukraine in this war, so keep that in mind.

I think analyses that conclude Putin acted "shrewdly" foolishly downplay what seems to be widening dysfunction within Russia's fighting forces, which I do believe is good for Ukraine. However, I feel like too many American talking heads overstate things the other way, painting a picture of a Russian military basically teetering on the verge of collapse w/mass desertions. We'll see, but it doesn't seem very likely to me.

I totally agree with your thoughts. Putin was "played" by both sides in this action. He was responding to events, not shaping them.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 06-29-2023

(06-29-2023, 08:32 AM)Goose Wrote:  https://www.yahoo.com/news/erdogan-slams-sweden-over-koran-141328348.html

For those of you who still expected this issue to just go away, it should seem clear at this late date that simply isn't going to happen. This is very much NOT a good look for NATO, and I don't see a way ahead. Bribing or threatening Erdoğan simply hasn't worked, and probably will not work. The US relationship with Türkiye is not good enough to allow us to "reason together". The US is in a difficult position because what Türkiye is becoming/has become is not compatible with our "world view". In Erdoğan's world, if a government (Sweden) doesn't like what somebody is doing, they stop them from doing it, period. If that government doesn't stop them, they support it. The "freedom of expression" argument simply doesn't have any traction or sympathy.

Just set a f-cking christian bible on fire and be done with it.

The minuscule act of some nitwit acting on their own to burn a book in a free country, outweighing the gravity of that country joining NATO, is so impossibly stupid.

Erdogan is not telling the truth about why he doesn't want Sweden in NATO. There is no way someone burning a book is the real reason.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 06-29-2023

If we’ve learned anything over the last ~7 years, it’s that politics does not always follow logic. Politicians pander to the prejudices of their constituents, and sometimes/often those prejudices make no sense.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 06-29-2023

Word is Biden and his administration is finally going to allow ATACMS go to Ukraine, possibly to be announced at the upcoming NATO summit.  We will have to see the quantity and the speed in which they are delivered, as they could have an impact on the ongoing counter offensive.  Ukraine has proven to have pretty extensive knowledge of Russian logistics, ammo depots, and troop locations, but they've had limited ability to attack, with only a few storm shadow missiles to use.  I'd imagine being able to ground launch these missiles is also a big deal, as they won't have to risk their air force either.  I doubt this will turn the tide, but it could time well if Ukraine can find a weak spot and attempt to exploit it.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-29-2023

(06-29-2023, 08:51 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Erdogan is not telling the truth about why he doesn't want Sweden in NATO. There is no way someone burning a book is the real reason.

It may be that Erdoğan indeed doesn't care about the Koran burning and is just pandering to his base. However, it is absolutely possible he shares those prejudices and beliefs. While the religious aspect of it could easily be phony, the fact Sweden won't restrain what he considers anti-Türkiye behavior is definitely NOT phony. He believes Sweden could stop it if they really wanted to do so, and they are not. This straightforward explanation IMO is much, much more probable than some other unknown agenda.

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(06-29-2023, 09:57 AM)Treefence Wrote:  Word is Biden and his administration is finally going to allow ATACMS go to Ukraine, possibly to be announced at the upcoming NATO summit.  We will have to see the quantity and the speed in which they are delivered, as they could have an impact on the ongoing counter offensive.  Ukraine has proven to have pretty extensive knowledge of Russian logistics, ammo depots, and troop locations, but they've had limited ability to attack, with only a few storm shadow missiles to use.  I'd imagine being able to ground launch these missiles is also a big deal, as they won't have to risk their air force either.  I doubt this will turn the tide, but it could time well if Ukraine can find a weak spot and attempt to exploit it.

Let's hope this is true. It will genuinely make a difference, and it will make even more of a difference as Ukraine gets closer to the Kerch Strait. Even if Ukraine has agreed not to use ATACMS on the bridge, Russia, and more importantly civilian residents of Crimea, probably don't want to count on that. ATACMS are also much more useful than cruise missiles against "targets of opportunity". I have posted this before, but for those who reacted TL;DR, here is another chance:-).

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA429075.pdf

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-29-2023

Hopeful that the ATACMS news is true and they are coming soon.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1674485823348023301?s=20
[/tweet]

Impressive work by Ukraine's western backers to get Serbian ammo. Russia cannot be pleased that even Serbia is supplying Ukraine.

IMHO Erdogan will fold at some point. There is little functional difference in any case as Sweden is in NATO now in pretty much everything but name, which is probably why his dithering on this isnt really eliciting much overt Western reaction.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-29-2023

(06-29-2023, 11:38 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  IMHO Erdogan will fold at some point. There is little functional difference in any case as Sweden is in NATO now in pretty much everything but name, which is probably why his dithering on this isnt really eliciting much overt Western reaction.

FWLIW, my read on the subject is much different. Sweden is most definitely not yet in NATO and there are barriers as to what they are able to do. The willingness to accept stationing of NATO troops in Sweden, which as been approved, is not without some legal jeopardy. The real problem is that the Swedes themselves are not happy with how they are being treated. For many Swedes (including many in the military), joining NATO and giving up their long cherished military independence was somewhat of a bitter pill. Now, being held hostage by a rogue NATO member isn't making them very happy at all. It reinforces the idea that Sweden can get the benefits of NATO without being in it. That idea is indeed dangerous to their application.
IMO the fact there is no overt Western reaction is the simple realization that any public or private pressure is just going to make Erdoğan dig in deeper. That is exactly the wrong thing to do ATM and both We and Erdoğan know it.

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