Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - threepointer - 06-23-2023

The fecal matter is hitting the fan in Russia.  This was bound to happen.  Not all great news though.  Uncertain leadership means an uncertain future.  What is clear though is that the Ukrainians should use this confusion to step up their offensive.

The next few days will be interesting.  In a way it reminds me of 1967 when there were so many global machinations and battles.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/russia-ukraine-coup-wagner-kremlin-yevgeny-prigozhin/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-23-2023

Wagner doesn't have the military power to overthrow Putin. They can make a big "statement" but they will lose rather quickly unless the Russian people massively support them. Wagner has just fought a serious action and Prigozhin himself said they needed months to refit. At the best of times they relied on the Russian military for ammunition, artillery support, armor, and transportation. Wagner can commandeer lots of "stuff" but it still lacks depth.
Prigozhin knows all this. I doubt he is suicidal, so there may be lots more going on behind the curtains. Nothing in Russia is as it seems. One wonders if this is all just an excuse for Putin to declare a general mobilization and increase internal "security". Then, it will turn out some flunky is guilty and Putin will embrace and honor Prigozhin for calling his attention to it :-). Or it could be something else entirely.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 06-23-2023

You love to see it.

I’m positively giddy about the idea of civil war in Russia. Who could have ever imagined standing up an army not controlled by your government could end up turning against it?

If Shoigu and Gerasimov are deposed, they can be blamed for the invasion of Ukraine under false pretenses, and Putin will have his off ramp to end this disastrous own goal of a war. He can put Prigozhin in charge of military and blame those two for leading Russia astray.

The Russian forces may just abandon their positions. Opposition groups in Russia will feel emboldened to stand up against Russia. Even security forces could take opportunity to turn against government. But who is in charge? Are they loyal to the military or Prigozhin? What a mess. I like Ukraine’s chances to clean it up.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-23-2023

(06-23-2023, 06:00 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  You love to see it.

I’m positively giddy about the idea of civil war in Russia. Who could have ever imagined standing up an army not controlled by your government could end up turning against it?

If Shoigu and Gerasimov are deposed, they can be blamed for the invasion of Ukraine under false pretenses, and Putin will have his off ramp to end this disastrous own goal of a war. He can put Prigozhin in charge of military and blame those two for leading Russia astray.

Putin could try that, but the rest of the military would never sit still for it. They would depose Putin. Shoigu and Gerasimov are disposable, but only if replaced with somebody from "inside the tent". Prigozhin is a total outsider to the Russian military. He also would then be a mortal threat to Putin if he was the supreme commander. It would indeed be an "off ramp" for Putin, in every sense.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 06-23-2023

This is crazy. Videos of Wagner units in Rostov. If Wagner blocks the GLOCs through there, given the disruption of GLOCs through Crimea, Russias units in Zaporizhia could be in serious trouble very quickly.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 06-23-2023

This is nuts... [tweet]=https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672425632633085954?s=20]https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672425632633085954?s=20[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 06-23-2023

I’ve seen some reports claiming Russian forces don’t want to fight Wagners. It doesn’t take very much for the whole command structure to collapse if the soldiers won’t follow orders from their top generals.

Ukraine should drop leaflets in the occupied territory telling the Russian forces their leadership and logistics are crumbling. Probably best to just go back to Russia and figure things out in your own country instead of dying in ours for nothing.

It does seem Prigozhin has no beef with Putin as he’s not criticized him at all publicly to my knowledge. Maybe he’s just being cagey. Whatever the case, there is a real possibility the Russian armed forces won’t attack and may even join Wagners because Prigozhin is talking about protecting the lives of Russians, then saying they were all conned by Shoigu and Gerasimov to invade Ukraine under false pretenses.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 06-23-2023

Goose wondering about this turning into a full mobilization does have me worried a bit, considering we haven't seen any real fighting.  We saw helicopters flying earlier, but now Wagner armor can occupy military districts, without a fight.  I'm starting to wonder, but at the same time Crimea fell in similar fashion, so it doesn't have to be staged...

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 06-23-2023

(06-23-2023, 07:16 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  I’ve seen some reports claiming Russian forces don’t want to fight Wagners. It doesn’t take very much for the whole command structure to collapse if the soldiers won’t follow orders from their top generals.

Ukraine should drop leaflets in the occupied territory telling the Russian forces their leadership and logistics are crumbling. Probably best to just go back to Russia and figure things out in your own country instead of dying in ours for nothing.

It does seem Prigozhin has no beef with Putin as he’s not criticized him at all publicly to my knowledge. Maybe he’s just being cagey. Whatever the case, there is a real possibility the Russian armed forces won’t attack and may even join Wagners because Prigozhin is talking about protecting the lives of Russians, then saying they were all conned by Shoigu and Gerasimov to invade Ukraine under false pretenses.

I won’t even pretend to understand Russian internal politics, but this makes a lot of sense. 

Wagner doesn’t have the strength to go against Putin. Declaring for regime change in the Kremlin likely means their death. By clamoring for leadership change in the MOD, it gives Putin an out. He could choose to use current leadership as the fall guys, install someone more Wagner friendly from within MOD ranks.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 06-23-2023

I’ve hear Rostov is a significant logistics hub for Russian supplies to Ukraine. If Wagner controls that city, not only can Prigozhin basically force an end to fighting in Ukraine by Russians, he can also supply his own forces with the stockpiles of military supplies in the city.

Prigozhin doesn’t need Moscow to have tremendous leverage over Russia. If I’m in Russian armed forces I would start following Prigozhin just seeing how much more competent he is than the clowns in charge of the Russian military now.

LOL at everyone who thought Putin was some kind of genius who has to be feared. Sure the guy has power, but getting it and knowing how to use it are two different things.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 06-23-2023

This is such a big win for Ukraine, no matter what happens next.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 06-23-2023

You must watch this channel right now…

https://www.youtube.com/live/8taH-NDguNg?feature=share

Just reported Rostov security forces have joined Wagner, as seemed likely.

As soon as Prigozhin announced coup, all Russian artillery fire on the contact line stopped and Ukraine reportedly ordered advances across the entire line to take advantage.

This situation is just crazy, but awesome!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-23-2023

Really wild. Clearly this is an incredible turn of events for Ukraine. Imagine the front line soldiers of both countries seeing all these photos and videos on their phones just like us.

And this will not be simple for Russia to clear out these troops. They can't just bomb the city center with their jets (this is Rostov not Chechnya). Russia doesn't have a lot of effective troops to spare for a mission like that.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - thatboy - 06-23-2023

So apparently there's a convoy moving through Russia. Couldn't Moscow just bomb the convoy with their air force or does Wagner have some kind of defense against that?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 06-23-2023

(06-23-2023, 08:44 PM)thatboy Wrote:  So apparently there's a convoy moving through Russia. Couldn't Moscow just bomb the convoy with their air force or does Wagner have some kind of defense against that?

I wonder if the Kremlin wants to avoid the visual of bombing a brobdingnagian Russian Urban center?  We'll find out if they try moving to another city I guess.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 06-23-2023

(06-23-2023, 08:44 PM)thatboy Wrote:  So apparently there's a convoy moving through Russia. Couldn't Moscow just bomb the convoy with their air force or does Wagner have some kind of defense against that?

Wagner has air defense and its own aviation.The more likely reason is Russian forces don’t want to attack Wagner. It appears regional security forces are joining Wagner too.

Watch the YouTube channel I linked above for better info than you can get on CNN.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-23-2023

As always, we have to be a bit careful about early reports and "analysis" from milbloggers. That said, no matter how one looks at it this series of events is going to at least temporarily detract from the Russian military's efforts in Ukraine, perhaps significantly. What happens in the next few days can be pretty confusing. If Wagner gains significant support from Russian military units, it can, at least  in the short term, threaten a successful coup.

One thing that really will hurt the Russian military response at the MOD level is that Russian offices, from top to bottom, want to avoid political involvement, real or perceived. They also want to be on the winning side, or at least not on the losing side, of any internal battles. That is why the Russian military basically sat on the sidelines when Gorbachev was temporarily removed from power. The military didn't know who was going to win so they basically did nothing. That could happen again when the MOD attempts to reign in Wagner. The military may not join Wagner, but they may also not respond to MOD instructions either. Their communications will "fail". If Wagner can get that to happen, the level of force Wagner can generate may be enough to "take over" the state. This would, however, be a real bold move by Wagner, and I can't help but feel that there are more layers to this than we see at the moment.

No matter what, short term, this is good for Ukraine.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 06-23-2023

Putin is MIA, which makes this situation seem like a BFD. If there was ever a time for a leader to speak to show he is in charge, this would be that time.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-23-2023

(06-23-2023, 09:22 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Putin is MIA, which makes this situation seem like a BFD. If there was ever a time for a leader to speak to show he is in charge, this would be that time.

Unless he is "involved" in what Wagner is doing and WANTS to create uncertainty, you would be correct. We also don't see any reports of airlifting troops (or "warning orders" to do so) from the Northern military districts towards Rostov, which would make sense if this is all "real". Who knows what is going on with the Russian leadership?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-23-2023

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1672463543189348352?s=20[/tweet]

FSB said they were going to arrest this guy. And here he is meeting with (high ranking) Russian generals in the building his troops surrounded. Oh and supposedly Gerasimov skedadelled from there just before Wagner showed up.
[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672467217881989122?s=20[/tweet]

I'm not sure Putin really has much control of this situation. It's certainly not a good look for him, and he's usually mindful of that.

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