Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 05-19-2023

I'm assuming that if those planes were shot down by a patriot system, maybe the 2nd battery, Russia would know by know that was the case, since there'd be debris left behind, but if that wasn't the case, it would really benefit Ukraine if Russia was constantly worried about the Patriot system being along the controlled Ukrainian border at any point, waiting to switch on briefly and take out any Russian aircraft that thinks its safe over Russian soil at high altitude. The system might have more value as a deterrent in that case, but I'm sure I'm off somehwere with my theory.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 05-19-2023

(05-19-2023, 06:27 PM)Treefence Wrote:  I'm assuming that if those planes were shot down by a patriot system, maybe the 2nd battery, Russia would know by know that was the case, since there'd be debris left behind, but if that wasn't the case, it would really benefit Ukraine if Russia was constantly worried about the Patriot system being along the controlled Ukrainian border at any point, waiting to switch on briefly and take out any Russian aircraft that thinks its safe over Russian soil at high altitude. The system might have more value as a deterrent in that case, but I'm sure I'm off somehwere with my theory.

I wonder how far back you can set the radar and command stations from the launchers? Perhaps they are willing to risk a couple launchers near the front lines if the rest of the system can provide the firing information from relative safety.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 05-19-2023

(05-19-2023, 09:24 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(05-19-2023, 07:49 AM)gocard14 Wrote:  Finally we have some action on western fighters. Biden endorses training on F16s. Better late then never. 

https://apnews.com/article/g7-japan-hiroshima-ukraine-biden-kishida-3ac64076f63786490a1b062f9a408408

When fighters are delivered, how many, and who provides them to be worked out as training is ongoing. 
Biden told the leaders that decisions on when, how many, and who will provide the fourth-generation fighter jets for Ukraine to use in battle will be made in the months ahead while the training is underway.
[size=1]Biden told the leaders that decisions on when, how many, and who will provide the fourth-generation fighter jets for Ukraine to use in battle will be made in the months ahead while the training is underway.[/size]
Biden told the leaders that decisions on when, how many, and who will provide the fourth-generation fighter jets for Ukraine to use in battle will be made in the months ahead while the training is underw

Belgium, Denmark, The Dutch Republic, and Norway are the best candidates. Norway has 64 F-16 that it took out of service in 2022. These are well-maintained aircraft that are all of the same "Rev" (except for 2 seaters). Theoretically they have sold 32 of them to Romania. This is probably the largest homogeneous group available. The Netherlands has 48 F-16 operational. Denmark has "around 30" aircraft available. Belgium has "around 50". The Belgian ones are upgraded to the AM standard, which makes them "similar" to the C/D versions. The Netherlands is getting F-35s, "soon" so they can probably let theirs go without much grief. Belgium isn't quite as far down that road, but it isn't clear to what extent they intend to continue operating their F-16s in the interim :-) OTOH theirs are upgraded. Greece and Portugal don't have enough airplanes to really "count" much in this potlatch, and Greece arguably needs what it has.

No matter what happens here, if the F-16s are delivered as a "mixed set", it will be a nightmare maintenance and training wise. Beggars can't be choosers, but keeping straight which jammers go on which aircraft, what the maximum bomb load is, which aircraft have software for which weapons will be a mess. To some degree NATO has that issue as well, but since each nation is responsible to support it's own aircraft, there is a plan to provide the support. The various units intend to operate as units, not mixed together. Their mechanics and maintenance people know their airplanes. Ukraine will not be in that state.

Ideally, Ukraine would send pilots/maintenance crews to the US who will train on the current standard of the ANG and take their planes back to Ukraine with them. That isn't happening, so what does happen is going to be a bit of a mess. Keep in mind that training areas in Europe are actually quite limited, and that by September the weather really starts to bite into the flyable days, particularly for rookies. There are simulators, but that isn't a sufficient background, especially for guys who are going directly from training to combat.

Seems crazy for the country operating over 1000 F16s not to send a couple squadrons. Hell the budget in 2022 called for sending 47 F16C/D to the boneyard. They are probably getting near their limit for flight hours, but I’m sure the Ukrainians would rather have them then the scrapyard.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 05-20-2023

Can someone explain the Bakhmut situation? Now seeing reports Wagner has captured the whole city, but also that Ukraine has made breakthroughs to north and south of the city. It almost seems Ukraine is letting Wagner take the middle so they can go in behind them and ultimately cut off and encircle them from behind. Makes no sense that Wagner would be bogged down there for months and then when Ukraine is ramping up counterattacks, Wagner would suddenly take all this ground. 

Is Ukraine bringing in reinforcements behind the western front line of Bakhmut, to smash Wagners thinking they have won something, and then going to connect the flanks to east to surround Wagners? It seems like once out of the city there are a lot of open fields and not anywhere for Wagners to hide, which would seem to make them very vulnerable.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 05-20-2023

(05-20-2023, 07:27 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Can someone explain the Bakhmut situation? Now seeing reports Wagner has captured the whole city, but also that Ukraine has made breakthroughs to north and south of the city. It almost seems Ukraine is letting Wagner take the middle so they can go in behind them and ultimately cut off and encircle them from behind. Makes no sense that Wagner would be bogged down there for months and then when Ukraine is ramping up counterattacks, Wagner would suddenly take all this ground. 

Is Ukraine bringing in reinforcements behind the western front line of Bakhmut, to smash Wagners thinking they have won something, and then going to connect the flanks to east to surround Wagners? It seems like once out of the city there are a lot of open fields and not anywhere for Wagners to hide, which would seem to make them very vulnerable.

As per usual, Goose can probably do a better job, but I'll do my best.  Bakhmut has been the main focus of Russian advance, primarily Wagner, for the past 9 months or so.  While Ukraine went on their Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, Russians were on the defensive almost everywhere, except for Bakhmut.  Bakhmut was a fortress for Ukraine, and used as a main supply route while Russia was trying to take Sieveirodonetsk and Lysychansk back in May.  Around the new year Russia made a brobdingnagian assault on the town of Soledar which is just North East of Bakhmut, a key area in protecting the flank.  It was very costly, but Russia did capture the town, and it started the threat of encirclement, because Russia was also making ground south of the town, and you could see a clear pincer attempt being formed.  Instead of pulling out, Ukrainians decided to reinforce the town, despite lots of western military minds advising otherwise.  While the defense of the city has been very costly for Ukraine, it's likely been even more costly for Russia, with estimates of Russian deaths in the 10's of thousands in this battle alone.  The city never was fully surrounded, and the situation north and south of the city stabilized, with Ukraine able to continue to get supplies in and out.  Wagner has been taking the city block by block, and have taken all but a few blocks as of this morning.  

Ukraine has been conducting limited counter attacks on the flanks, taking back some of the ground north and south, but they are still losing ground in the city, and it will likely fall very soon.  I doubt Ukraine is going to spend a ton of resources trying to continue their push on their flanks, as the recent attacks seem to be opportunistic and taking advantage of lightly guarded positions by inexperienced men.  It's possible the counter offensive could involved a couple thunder runs north and south, trying to trap thousands of Russian troops, but that would be quite risky, and wouldn't likely result in massive amounts of liberated land, nor the closing of the land bridge to Crimea.

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To add to this, it's Wagners goal as a PMC is to capture the city in full, regardless of the situation north and south, so Prigozhin can gain favor for accomplishing his task.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-20-2023

(05-20-2023, 07:27 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  To add to this, it's Wagners goal as a PMC is to capture the city in full, regardless of the situation north and south, so Prigozhin can gain favor for accomplishing his task.

Yes, a contract is a contract. Now all that needs happen is applying the penalty for late delivery :-). I do think it possible, maybe even probable, that Ukraine does intend to crash down on the supply lines into Bakhmut. It won't be a deep envelopment, but rather a tactical one that will put the Wagner forces in Bakhmut itself on the horns of a dilemma. Stay and risk being cut off or retreat now while they can. Wagner has to rely on the regular Russian forces for flank protection and supply lines. There aren't enough Wagnerites to do it all. Obviously Wagner can't rely on these troops, as has already been proven. How much threat to their supply lines and line of retreat will they accept? If they capture the city but have to evacuate it due to threat of encirclement, it isn't their fault :-).

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(05-19-2023, 08:58 PM)gocard14 Wrote:  I wonder how far back you can set the radar and command stations from the launchers? Perhaps they are willing to risk a couple launchers near the front lines if the rest of the system can provide the firing information from relative safety.

Normally the launchers are interfaced via a fiber-optic cable. The can also be interfaced via a VHF (SINCGARS) radio link, which can cover easily 10 km.

EDIT: It occurs to me that the US may have removed the radio link capability, or at least the crypto capability from the units provided to Ukraine. This capability isn't "necessary" to operate the battery and arguably of little use in a built-up area where buildings block the VHF signal.

However, I don't think one likes to use the radio link if it can be avoided, and it doesn't really affect the missile range that much. The missiles are pretty well matched to the radar. What the radar can see, the missiles can hit, more or less. This does assume your opponent doesn't do really stupid things however.

The problem with shooting at aircraft that are far away is that they can easily change course. This will require the missile to do likewise, and there is no guarantee that it will have enough kinetic energy to reach the target on the new course. If the opponent has an AEW aircraft up there, they will be warned of the missile launch and the threat level. Most importantly, if they know there are long-range threats, they fly low enough the acquisition radar can't see them for as long as possible. They will have to climb to launch a missile, but the missile can't reach the launch aircraft fast enough to stop the launch (if everybody does their job right). The launch aircraft will then dive for the deck and change course several times. Naturally, this is all going on inside Russian air space.

I don't believe (yet) that Ukraine has weapons free on targets inside Russian air space. They might, as the US and Ukraine have said that Ukraine selects the targets. Of course, that is true for HIMARS as well, yet we know Ukraine is not allowed to fire those into Russian territory.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 05-21-2023

Don’t know if you guys have seen this video or aware of this channel, but OMG is this so fantastic in so many ways. There are few information sources I trust more than this guy. Even his commentary reinforces how he sniffs out bullshit.

https://youtu.be/RsZLJ59qtaU

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-21-2023

(05-21-2023, 07:22 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Don’t know if you guys have seen this video or aware of this channel, but OMG is this so fantastic in so many ways. There are few information sources I trust more than this guy. Even his commentary reinforces how he sniffs out bullshit.

https://youtu.be/RsZLJ59qtaU

I like the information presented in the video. The "confirmation" that the first set of debris photos were bogus was good to see. The fact that some of the debris in the second set were also not from a Kinzhal was good to hear, along with the confirmation that the alleged "nosecone" was not in fact the nosecone of a Kinzhal. The "expert" who says it is in fact the case for the warhead could be correct, AFAIK. I have no idea what that internal part looks like. However, given the other missile parts were not accurately portrayed/identified , I don't have high confidence any parts came from a Kinzhal. The reason, as before, is that the PAC-3 interceptor is designed to completely shred the target, leaving only "small" debris. Having a piece that large remaining is not the "desired outcome". Obviously, things don't always work exactly as designed, so maybe the item is the remains of the warhead. I would like to know how the explosive content of said warhead got out of the case without exploding though :-).

As the video makes clear, the idea that a Patriot couldn't kill a Kinzhal was always nonsense, and nobody should have believed that. It is equally true that a Patriot cannot necessarily intercept every Kinzhal that it can detect, but that was also obvious. What we, in fairness, don't know is to what extent the Iskander/Kinzhal can actually be programed to maneuver in flight. AFAIK, we haven't seen the Russians attempt that. It may be this is only possible in the terminal phase of the flight. If so, it is still a "problem", but much less of one. If OTOH it can maneuver more extensively during flight, the problem discussed in the video of no time for a second shot becomes operative. The good news is that if the Patriot is the target, that is not the case :-).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-21-2023

https://www.yahoo.com/news/military-expert-says-ukrainian-anti-091300442.html
The above article contains a lot of nonsense. It is amazing what gets published. The idea that the Ukrainian operators did something unique when the Patriot is acknowledged to have been operating in automatic mode is absurd on it's face. On top of that, the Patriot isn't designed to shoot down Shahed 136 class drones, or even KH-55 class cruise missiles. It can engage KH-55s, but it is constrained (as are all other systems) by the radar horizon. A Patriot is only marginally "better" at shooting down a KH-55 than an NASAMS is. A Patriot will not see a KH-55 at all if operating strictly in anti-ballistic missile mode. No horizon scan. A Shahed 136 flies so slow my guess is the clutter filters don't see it as a moving target :-). Ukraine didn't shoot Iranian drones down with Patriots either. They have a more appropriate approach for them that doesn't involve the Patriot.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 05-21-2023

With the destruction of much of Ukraine's power grid, Ukraine is turning to solar panels to help combat the loss of power supply. European and other western governments are helping to build clean energy options in the country.

Ukraine found an unlikely tool to resist Russia: Solar panels

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 05-22-2023

A pretty thorough look at the Russian defense fortifications in this BBC report
 Ukraine war: Satellite images reveal Russian defenses before major assault

Wouldn't these fixed locations (trenches and artillery sites) be magnets for artillery and missiles?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-22-2023

(05-22-2023, 02:38 AM)M T Wrote:  A pretty thorough look at the Russian defense fortifications in this BBC report
 Ukraine war: Satellite images reveal Russian defenses before major assault

Wouldn't these fixed locations (trenches and artillery sites) be magnets for artillery and missiles?

Sure they will. However, where is the artillery shooting at these fortifications going to be? If it is sitting on the surface (like rapidly advancing forces will be) it too is a magnet for missiles and artillery fired from within the trenches. The ones in the trenches are protected from anything but a direct hit. The ones in the open are not. So, unless the ones in the open strike first with such overwhelming force that the protected ones are destroyed quickly, the ones in the open lose big time. That is why tanks exist, to carry their protection with them. However, in today's world, tank protection isn't all that great. So, the answer is air power and surface to surface missiles if you have them. These weapons are able to stand off and hit the trenches with relatively little danger to themselves. Guess what both Russia and Ukraine are short on.

Ukraine's better bet is to go around these fortifications/trenches where they can and cut them off. In places they have to fight their way through it will be costly if the defenders stand and fight. Ask the Russians who have been attacking Bakhmut about what happens when the defenders do stand and fight and you can't go around them.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 05-22-2023

Something up in the Belgorod region. 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/22/anti-kremlin-militia-freedom-of-russia-legion-overrun-russian-border-village-kozinka

Supposedly Russian partisans called the “freedom of Russia legion” have seized a few villages outside Belgorod and attacks are ongoing. Ukrainian army denies involvement 

While I doubt they have the men or materiel to push too far, it certainly could be an effective diversion of Russian forces, and I suspect it was coordinated with Ukrainian military to that effect. If they move fast they could also disrupt the logistics hubs in the region, which could be a significant impact.

To me it seems like Ukraine is trying to walk the line of supporting these kinds of raids into Russian soil while being unable to do it themselves at risk of losing western support (which is ridiculous in my view).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-22-2023

(05-22-2023, 08:38 AM)gocard14 Wrote:  Something up in the Belgorod region. 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/22/anti-kremlin-militia-freedom-of-russia-legion-overrun-russian-border-village-kozinka

Supposedly Russian partisans called the “freedom of Russia legion” have seized a few villages outside Belgorod and attacks are ongoing. Ukrainian army denies involvement 

While I doubt they have the men or materiel to push too far, it certainly could be an effective diversion of Russian forces, and I suspect it was coordinated with Ukrainian military to that effect. If they move fast they could also disrupt the logistics hubs in the region, which could be a significant impact.

To me it seems like Ukraine is trying to walk the line of supporting these kinds of raids into Russian soil while being unable to do it themselves at risk of losing western support (which is ridiculous in my view).

There is another potential serious problem with the actions of the “freedom of Russia legion”. It creates the illusion for the Russian public that the "State" really is in danger and that Ukraine (by extension) is behind all this and therefore the war is "necessary". All patriotic Russians must support it. IMO there is a non-zero chance some of the alleged “freedom of Russia legion” actions are in fact Russian false flag operations. Not all, but some, especially the ones that make a lot of noise but don't do much real damage.

There is a real inherent problem with how the current war is being fought. At some point, Ukraine is going to need Russia to stop using Russian airspace as a sanctuary to launch weapons into Ukraine. If Russia just "quits", that problem solves itself. If they don't, eventually that line must be crossed. I am very concerned that nobody in "the West" is really considering how to do that. The current situation may indeed be "unreasonable" in that it gives Russia a big free pass. However, the US has fought several wars in which the enemy had one or more "sanctuaries". The problem with this war is that it may not end as long as those "sanctuaries" exist. What then?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-22-2023

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraines-f-16s-could-come-192347420.html

Update on potential F-16 sources. Basically the same as previously posted but with a more detailed (and current) evaluation of what Norway, Denmark, Belgium, and the Netherlands could actually provide. Not a terrible outlook, but not that many planes either. Probably one does not get 50 jets this way.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-25-2023

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hypersonic-missiles-sending-chills-down-142252672.html

Good article about which type of "hypersonic" missiles actually do pose a significant new threat to existing anti-missile systems. One shortcoming/omission from the article, and almost all such articles, is no discussion of the contribution that can be obtained from AEW aircraft. The systems in orbit the article refers to do have a significant role to play, but the simpler and more easily deployed AEW aircraft are really the key. Their altitude greatly mitigates the effect of the radar horizon, while their persistence greatly mitigates the opposite disadvantage of LEO observers. High altitude drones can also help greatly in the detection of low-flying targets, particularly hypersonic cruise missiles. The drones are however limited in the size of the radar antenna (therefore minimum operating frequency) and transmitter power they can utilize, compared to a Wedgetail (E-3 for the present) or an E-2D with an AN/APY-9. The A-50 Mainstay can in theory do the same, although it hasn't exactly shown well so far in this war.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 05-25-2023

Interesting news that Sweden is going to start training some Ukrainians on the Gripen, but is also not planning on providing any aircraft

https://news.yahoo.com/sweden-train-ukrainian-pilots-jas-181546420.html.

Reading between the lines on this, I think that Sweden would love for Ukraine to buy a ton of Gripens moving forward but not to donate those in active use, of which there are too few. This would likely be years down the road, as Ukraine tries to reconstitute and modernize their air force, rather then anything that would impact the current conflict. The Gripen hasn't sold well, on account of it being similar in cost to an F35 but still 4.5 Gen. 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/25/sweden-gripen-sell-export-fighter-jets/

This could make sense for Ukraine as well, as they may be the fastest way to get the most modern/capable jets this way. Their current options are to continue to ask for hand-me downs that will necessarily be lower in capability and flight hours then new production jets, or to hop in the back of the queue for new F16s (or try to get in on the F35 program), which already have the next several years of production spoken for.  I also wonder if the "we are not providing aircraft right now" will be a negotiating point, as in "ok fine we'll give you planes now if you commit to buy several squadrons later."

A wing of Gripens with modern AESA radars and avionics, armed with meteors, AMRAAMs, and RBS 15s, linked to land based Patriot, NASAMS, and IRIS T radars would be a powerful defensive force. The lack of stealth would still limit them offensively, however.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 05-26-2023

Apparently, Ukraine is supporting Russian rebels inside the Russian border. I wonder how much support they actually lend, and I wonder at the effectiveness of the anti-Putin Russian resistance?

Russian armed resistance group tells CBS News the Ukraine war is helping it attack Putin on his own soil

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-27-2023

(05-26-2023, 08:56 PM)Mick Wrote:  Apparently, Ukraine is supporting Russian rebels inside the Russian border. I wonder how much support they actually lend, and I wonder at the effectiveness of the anti-Putin Russian resistance?

Russian armed resistance group tells CBS News the Ukraine war is helping it attack Putin on his own soil

There have been several "opinion pieces" expressing many different points of view regarding the utility/advisability of Ukraine supporting these visible incursions into Russian territory from Ukraine. The "pro" authors point out it forces Russia to use a disproportionate number of their troops to safeguard their border cities/villages. It also creates "concern" among Russian citizens. These activities are however not a severe, existential threat to Russia. Ukraine isn't going to win the war this way, nobody is claiming that. The serious problem that other, less "pro" authors point out is that while these incursions raise questions about the effectiveness of the Russian "special operation", these incursions also lend credence to the argument that the special operation is necessary to protect Russia from these crazies that are supported by Ukraine.

IMO the Ukrainians have a valuable and effective sabotage capability working inside Russia. This capability can and has inflicted disproportionate damage upon Russia and delivers valuable intelligence about Russian intentions and capability. The Kerch bridge bombing is an example, as are some of the drone attacks inside Russia. This is the force that Ukraine should support and protect. These incursions risk doing more political harm to Ukraine than they provide benefit. They also make it easier for Russia to increase internal security and target the "real" assets Ukraine has in Russia. Push the clandestine ops, stop the conventional ops is IMO a better strategy. It may be emotionally satisfying to some Ukrainians to make it look like they are attacking Russia, but that's not where "the beef" is.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 05-28-2023

Another very interesting event is  Girkin accusing Wagner of planning a coup against Putin while Wagner's boss states that Russia's leadership faces a revolution unless it puts the country on a "North Korea" type footing.  These kinds of statements coming for people other than Putin himself, makes it look like things are on the verge of coming apart for the Russian leadership.  
All the stuff one reads about the F16 makes it seem that it won't make a big difference, but we are assuming that Russia's air force and air defense systems are in good shape and still very capable.  The invasion of Ukraine has made Russia's military seem far less capable that was originally believed, at least by public.  
Putin seems to have no good way out at this point.  Can he survive losing lots of ground to the upcoming Ukrainian offensive?
Would Prigozhin actually be willing to change sides?  Seems far fetched, but then he is in it for himself first and foremost.

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