Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - rogpodge - 05-13-2023

https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1657485723291844608

Welp. $500M in ammo gone.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 05-14-2023

(05-13-2023, 05:38 PM)rogpodge Wrote:  https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1657485723291844608

Welp. $500M in ammo gone.

I doubt that is true, the person who tweeted that seems to be a pro Russian account. That explosion looks a lot more like a large fuel depot blowing up than ammunition.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 05-14-2023

"He fell out a window after leading a mercenary force attacking Ukraine." If true, WOW!

[tweet]https://twitter.com/OKnox/status/1657907636916895744[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-14-2023

You can't really trust much of what Prigozhin says. But still would be pretty funny if this became an excuse for Putin to get rid of what's becoming a rapidly less useful pawn now that Wagner is a spent and perhaps soon to be encircled force in Bakhmut.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-14-2023

(05-14-2023, 07:12 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  You can't really trust much of what Prigozhin says. But still would be pretty funny if this became an excuse for Putin to get rid of what's becoming a rapidly less useful pawn now that Wagner is a spent and perhaps soon to be encircled force in Bakhmut.

I would trust basically none of what Prigozhin says. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he was playing both ends against the middle in Ukraine and would sell out his "guys". I also wouldn't be at all surprised if Ukraine "leaked" something that might get him killed. Putin doesn't need an "excuse". What he DOES need is something in the Russian pro-war blogosphere that makes him look good. Not sure what that might be, but that is what he needs.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 05-15-2023

Zelensky's tour of EU is in the UK today (Monday).  So early morning bits from the BBC:

Quote:Last week, Zelensky told me that his country still had to wait to launch this assault.
His military, he said, was still waiting for some equipment, including armoured vehicles.
Major advances could guarantee continued support.
Anything that is seen as disappointing could result in pressure to enter negotiations with Moscow, something that Zelensky acknowledged as a possibility.

Quote:The UK will send "hundreds" of long-range attack drones and air defence missiles to Ukraine, Downing Street said on Monday morning.
"Today the prime minister will confirm the further UK provision of hundreds of air defence missiles and further unmanned aerial systems including hundreds of new long-range attack drones with a range of over 200km," No 10 said in a statement.
"These will all be delivered over the coming months as Ukraine prepares to intensify its resistance to the ongoing Russian invasion."
Though the announcement of more drones seems to be new, we already knew the UK was sending a batch of long-range missiles to Ukraine - that was announced on Thursday.

Quote:The prime minister's spokesman said: "The Ukrainians made the decision to train their pilots on F-16s and you will know the RAF don't use those."

But I heard the PM indicate they would be training Ukrainian citizens as pilots in the very near future (apparently that was announced in February).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 05-15-2023

(05-14-2023, 09:31 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(05-14-2023, 07:12 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  You can't really trust much of what Prigozhin says. But still would be pretty funny if this became an excuse for Putin to get rid of what's becoming a rapidly less useful pawn now that Wagner is a spent and perhaps soon to be encircled force in Bakhmut.

I would trust basically none of what Prigozhin says. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he was playing both ends against the middle in Ukraine and would sell out his "guys". I also wouldn't be at all surprised if Ukraine "leaked" something that might get him killed. Putin doesn't need an "excuse". What he DOES need is something in the Russian pro-war blogosphere that makes him look good. Not sure what that might be, but that is what he needs.

Do you think defense minister Sergei Shoigu is essentially in the same boat? He's in Putin's inner circle, and he's the guy who should be supplying the arms. How much of the ordnance budget do you think he's stolen, and how likely is it that he should really stay away from high buildings with windows that open?

Separately, how odd is it that a former caterer ended up in charge of a Russian paramilitary group?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-15-2023

(05-15-2023, 09:12 AM)Mick Wrote:  Do you think defense minister Sergei Shoigu is essentially in the same boat? He's in Putin's inner circle, and he's the guy who should be supplying the arms. How much of the ordnance budget do you think he's stolen, and how likely is it that he should really stay away from high buildings with windows that open?

Shoigu is in a different class. So far, he has been compliant with what Putin has requested and has not publicly opposed/criticized Putin. He is probably not very competent, but who in the Russian high command is, and if such a person exists he probably would not go along with Putin all the time. Thus, Shoigu is useful. What Putin does is play off the various generals against each other, and he may dismiss Shoigu as defense minister, assigning him as commander of Siberian Sled Dog Management. Shoigu will go do that, because with Putin, he may call you back to be defense minister again when and if it suits him. As long as Shoigu is not a "threat", he probably won't be killed.

Quote:Separately, how odd is it that a former caterer ended up in charge of a Russian paramilitary group?

Not real odd. Wagner is a PMC. It is in the business of making money. A caterer doesn't need to know how to cook. He does need to know what his customer wants and be able to hire the people who can deliver it. Wagner is like Blackwater. It is hired muscle that is deniable by those that use it and who will do as ordered without evaluating it's merits. Wagner has made money leading indigenous troops in potential Russian client states. Wagner itself is really only designed to actually fight minimal small unit operations against unprepared/outclassed opposition. Mercs don't take the job to get killed. The like the adrenaline rush of fighting but if things are not looking "good", they get out of Dodge.

Wagner is out of it's element in Ukraine. They took on a task they weren't resourced to accomplish. Why they did it is anyone's guess, maybe Putin gave them an offer they couldn't refuse. The prisoners/cannon fodder they used were not "Wagner", as was made very clear to them after they signed up :-). That isn't Wagner's specialty. Prigozhin undoubtedly had a contract to take Bakhmut by a certain date. That date has slipped repeatedly. The delays are costing Wagner money. Like any other good government contractor, Wagner has tried to blame the customer for the delays. Wagner's current problem is that they are looking at a default, and I doubt the Russian government gave them generous progress payments. Such a default is going to do bad things to their business, maybe force it into bankruptcy. Prigozhin has lots to worry about.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 05-15-2023

(05-15-2023, 09:48 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(05-15-2023, 09:12 AM)Mick Wrote:  Do you think defense minister Sergei Shoigu is essentially in the same boat? He's in Putin's inner circle, and he's the guy who should be supplying the arms. How much of the ordnance budget do you think he's stolen, and how likely is it that he should really stay away from high buildings with windows that open?

Shoigu is in a different class. So far, he has been compliant with what Putin has requested and has not publicly opposed/criticized Putin. He is probably not very competent, but who in the Russian high command is, and if such a person exists he probably would not go along with Putin all the time. Thus, Shoigu is useful. What Putin does is play off the various generals against each other, and he may dismiss Shoigu as defense minister, assigning him as commander of Siberian Sled Dog Management. Shoigu will go do that, because with Putin, he may call you back to be defense minister again when and if it suits him. As long as Shoigu is not a "threat", he probably won't be killed.

Quote:Separately, how odd is it that a former caterer ended up in charge of a Russian paramilitary group?

Not real odd. Wagner is a PMC. It is in the business of making money. A caterer doesn't need to know how to cook. He does need to know what his customer wants and be able to hire the people who can deliver it. Wagner is like Blackwater. It is hired muscle that is deniable by those that use it and who will do as ordered without evaluating it's merits. Wagner has made money leading indigenous troops in potential Russian client states. Wagner itself is really only designed to actually fight minimal small unit operations against unprepared/outclassed opposition. Mercs don't take the job to get killed. The like the adrenaline rush of fighting but if things are not looking "good", they get out of Dodge.

Wagner is out of it's element in Ukraine. They took on a task they weren't resourced to accomplish. Why they did it is anyone's guess, maybe Putin gave them an offer they couldn't refuse. The prisoners/cannon fodder they used were not "Wagner", as was made very clear to them after they signed up :-). That isn't Wagner's specialty. Prigozhin undoubtedly had a contract to take Bakhmut by a certain date. That date has slipped repeatedly. The delays are costing Wagner money. Like any other good government contractor, Wagner has tried to blame the customer for the delays. Wagner's current problem is that they are looking at a default, and I doubt the Russian government gave them generous progress payments. Such a default is going to do bad things to their business, maybe force it into bankruptcy. Prigozhin has lots to worry about.

Seems like Prigozhin has gotten himself between a rock and a very hard place.  If he fails to take Bakhmut which now seems far more possible than two or three weeks ago, he will be facing the problem of extricating what is left of "Wagner" and trying to alive if Putin decides Wagner should take all the blame for not capturing Bakhmut.  He could of course surrender to Ukranian forces, but he would almost certainly be arrested for war crimes his forces committed.  Hard to see any good options for him.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 05-15-2023

(05-15-2023, 12:54 PM)GK3 Wrote:  Seems like Prigozhin has gotten himself between a rock and a very hard place.  If he fails to take Bakhmut which now seems far more possible than two or three weeks ago, he will be facing the problem of extricating what is left of "Wagner" and trying to alive if Putin decides Wagner should take all the blame for not capturing Bakhmut.  He could of course surrender to Ukranian forces, but he would almost certainly be arrested for war crimes his forces committed.  Hard to see any good options for him.

One can imagine his reason was to avoid war crime trials if he (as alleged) offered to give info to Ukraine.  I'm not sure how much that info is worth to Ukraine as you'd think they have a pretty good idea of where the Russians are.  I don't necessarily believe the allegation.

On the other hand, he could have offered, "Let us escape and we'll help undermine (or fight against) Russian troops."  Tempting, but where would the mercenaries go once they leave the battlefield?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-15-2023

Interesting interview with a Ukrainian arms importer at a SOF weapons trade show. Touches on how long it takes to procure things, the sorts of weapons and equipment Ukraine is buying on the open market, testing of new drones in Ukraine with captured Russian EW equipment. Nothing too surprising or detailed but still informative.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-arms-dealers-experience-shopping-at-a-u-s-special-ops-trade-show

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-15-2023

Even better interview with a commander of a Ukrainian artillery brigade and his chief of staff. Goes through operations from the beginning until the present. Long but good. 

Last quote telling-

Quote:(I): As for the negotiating table: do you think there are territorial compromises that would be acceptable to Ukrainian society?

 

(O): No, there can be no compromises. No giving something away to get something in return. There are fixed borders recognized by the international community. Whether politicians want it or not, whether they will contribute to it or not. The people will not allow it.

https://wartranslated.com/pravda-com-ua-interview-ukrainian-colonel-oleh-shevchuk/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-15-2023

You expect a Ukrainian military officer to publicly admit that Ukraine would make territorial concessions for peace?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 05-16-2023

It seems Russia once again tried to attack the Patriot systems near Kyiv, sending all types of missiles at once.  Ukraine claims they shot down all missiles, while Russia claims they took out a launcher.  Given how many assets were used by both sides, and the limited amount of damage down to Ukrainian civilians or other military structures, I'd say the system did its job, though maybe it was quite expensive for Ukraine.  Now sure how major of a loss it would be if one launcher was actually taken out, but at the ver least Russia isn't going after other targets.  

 [tweet][url=https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1658361658828357633?s=20]https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1658361658828357633?s=20[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-16-2023

(05-15-2023, 11:21 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  You expect a Ukrainian military officer to publicly admit that Ukraine would make territorial concessions for peace?

Did you even read the interview? Not sure why I bother to post anything here.....

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-16-2023

We still lack definitive information on the Kinzhal missile interceptions, but the information we do have indicates the missiles are being intercept with high probability of success. It is probable this is greatly simplified by the Russians targeting the Patriot battery directly and not maneuvering the missile on the inbound track. In theory, the Kinzhal can do this, although doing so has a definite kinetic energy penalty. This tactic will only help if the battery loses track of the missile, which will only happen if the search sector is narrowed for some reason. Given they have so few batteries, Ukraine isn't going to do that.

Unfortunately the kill probability in any Patriot engagement is not 100%, even best case. The Russians can play games to reduce it from "best case". If they keep at it, the Russians will eventually hit the acquisition radar. That is just a fact. Moving that radar frequently makes it harder to hit. It degrades the "fix" on it's location. The Kinzhal is itself not perfectly accurate (or perfectly reliable), so that even if the missile "gets through", it may miss. That said, it is a matter of time. I hope there is a spare acquisition radar already in place. If not, Ukraine is kind of back to square one in air defense against high performance missiles.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 05-16-2023

US officials are now saying the missile barrage likely damaged, but did not destroy a patriot system.  Goose, is this likely the radar portion, or another part of the patriot system?  I'd assume if it was a launcher, and there were no missiles left in the launcher, this wouldn't be a big deal, but maybe a hit on the radar portion might put it out for a while?  Either way, it's slightly fortunate, but as you mentioned, there wasn't a 100% change of avoiding this.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-16-2023

(05-16-2023, 10:49 AM)Treefence Wrote:  US officials are now saying the missile barrage likely damaged, but did not destroy a patriot system.  Goose, is this likely the radar portion, or another part of the patriot system?  I'd assume if it was a launcher, and there were no missiles left in the launcher, this wouldn't be a big deal, but maybe a hit on the radar portion might put it out for a while?  Either way, it's slightly fortunate, but as you mentioned, there wasn't a 100% change of avoiding this.

No real good way to predict what was hit. The part of the battery that can be geolocated by ELINT systems is the acquisition radar. That entity can be quite exactly found. The other parts of the battery, like launchers and power generators, are usually spread about "nearby". The Russians may have available PHOTINT and HUMINT that can locate different parts of the battery exactly, but in any case the radar is what they want to hit. It is the most difficult thing to replace. The battery may have several launchers and they are much simpler items to fix/replace, in general.

Even with perfect information, the Kinzhal missile itself isn't super accurate. It has a large warhead and doesn't have to score a direct hit to do lots of damage. The Kalibr is more accurate but has a smaller warhead. It is also quite possible the Patriot was damaged by ballistic debris from a missile that it actually shot down some distance away. Flying metal fragments don't necessarily just hit the ground, and if they hit a Kinzhal during it's terminal maneuver, it could have been going downhill right above them. Clean underwear may also be required. We don't have enough information to even guess. We also don't know whether the damage renders in radar inoperable, degraded, or no effect.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-16-2023

(05-16-2023, 08:41 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  

(05-15-2023, 11:21 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  You expect a Ukrainian military officer to publicly admit that Ukraine would make territorial concessions for peace?

Did you even read the interview? Not sure why I bother to post anything here.....

Yes.  There were lots of details mixed in with the platitudes about “no compromise” and “the ammo is sufficient.”  Unfortunately, I’m not immersed enough in the news about the war to understand the context of some of those details, like the amount of ammo used per day. But that’s not the fault of the article. 

I was just commenting on the part you called out. I’m not sure why the statement about Ukraine’s unwillingness to cede territory is credible though.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-17-2023

(05-16-2023, 10:27 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  I was just commenting on the part you called out. I’m not sure why the statement about Ukraine’s unwillingness to cede territory is credible though.

IMO there are some things that are pretty clear. It is currently the official policy of the Ukrainian government that they will not cede any territory, period. As a serving officer, that must also be the "policy" of the Col. It is also pretty clear that the Ukrainian government adopted this policy because it was almost universally held by it's citizenry. They are all fighting against Russia and suffering daily. Obviously, for the military this suffering and effort is immediate, proximate, and continuous. The fact that they are "all in" should surprise no one. Anything less would be unexpected.

It is also equally true that this war has to end someday. How it will end and on what term is TBD. Right now, Ukraine couldn't get a "deal" from Russia that would trade land for peace. At some time in the future, that may not be the case. It is totally hypothetical. Therefore, given the emotional costs they are currently suffering, as well as the physical ones, no Ukrainian soldier is going to worry much about what a potential swap might look like. For them, it is all or nothing at all. That is true today. In the future, if there is a real "offer" on the table, there may be some room for compromise. It may largely depend on the "correlation of forces", not the citizen's preferences at that point.

One thing that would keep all Ukrainians awake at night if they chose to dwell on it is that even if they drive Russia out of Ukraine, Russia will still be there. Russia is also the best natural trading partner Ukraine has. That is dictated by geography. It is improbable that Russia will suddenly become a peace-loving "good neighbor". They can always come back. Even a complete victory is not a bed of roses. Ukrainians know this, but right now they have bigger problems and can't take on any more anxiety due to what might happen subsequently. They are right now very much in a "just win baby" situation.

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