Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-19-2023

“Unclear” is my favorite description of international affairs. For all the leaks, we still know very little. Even people in the know have trouble predicting anything with reasonable accuracy. It’s not like a controlled science experiment where you can attribute change to a particular cause with a high degree of certainty, let alone predict how the next experiment will turn out.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-19-2023

(04-19-2023, 08:27 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  “Unclear” is my favorite description of international affairs. For all the leaks, we still know very little. Even people in the know have trouble predicting anything with reasonable accuracy. It’s not like a controlled science experiment where you can attribute change to a particular cause with a high degree of certainty, let alone predict how the next experiment will turn out.

Very true! Unfortunately many decisions made even at high levels are greatly influenced by who presented data last or how the decision maker was feeling that day. Many almost "random" effects. That is why war, among other international activities, is never certain. Unfortunately humanity seems to always forget that and then is totally surprised when things don't go as expected :-).

One other fact that we in the US always forget. Each president will get the intelligence community he "wants", no matter how hard he tries to maintain an "objective" organization. It will take about two years, but it will happen. It is gravity. The organization "learns" to pander to the prejudices of it's master. It is a subtle but very real effect, and influences outcomes. In almost all cases, there are opinions all over the map about any complex intelligence question. The "chosen" result is greatly affected by the above mentioned learning. So far, nobody has figured out how to prevent this.

Another byproduct of this effect is that when some prediction of the intelligence community is proven by events to be "wrong", there is a search for the cause of the error. Inevitably somebody somewhere in the intelligence community did "get it right", and in retrospect it is "obvious" why that conclusion should have been reached. There will be a "reorganization" to "fix the problem". Of course, it won't do so. This is not to say all improvements are futile, but in fact most of them are.

IMO the attempt to make data more accessible to more analysts has accomplished little good. The subject matter experts (in their stovepipe organizations) always had access to the necessary data, and when they did not, they took action to get the data. There are lots of "facts" that can be connected after an event that nobody would have connected before the event happened. Even if somebody did, nobody would believe them and it would go nowhere. For example, there was a Colonel that exactly predicted the German offensive that became the battle of the bulge. Nobody believed him. There were initiatives after 9/11 to spread data more widely and break down the "stovepipes". IMO the result has been the destruction of information security without any real benefit. Thus the current questions about "need to know". If we intend that virtually any random person can make a connection between facts that (up until the person made this great leap of insight) are totally unrelated, how can there be anything such as "need to know"? IMO we should back down considerably from that dubious "goal".

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 04-19-2023

(04-19-2023, 09:11 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(04-19-2023, 08:27 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  “Unclear” is my favorite description of international affairs. For all the leaks, we still know very little. Even people in the know have trouble predicting anything with reasonable accuracy. It’s not like a controlled science experiment where you can attribute change to a particular cause with a high degree of certainty, let alone predict how the next experiment will turn out.

Very true! Unfortunately many decisions made even at high levels are greatly influenced by who presented data last or how the decision maker was feeling that day. Many almost "random" effects. That is why war, among other international activities, is never certain. Unfortunately humanity seems to always forget that and then is totally surprised when things don't go as expected :-).

One other fact that we in the US always forget. Each president will get the intelligence community he "wants", no matter how hard he tries to maintain an "objective" organization. It will take about two years, but it will happen. It is gravity. The organization "learns" to pander to the prejudices of it's master. It is a subtle but very real effect, and influences outcomes. In almost all cases, there are opinions all over the map about any complex intelligence question. The "chosen" result is greatly affected by the above mentioned learning. So far, nobody has figured out how to prevent this.

Another byproduct of this effect is that when some prediction of the intelligence community is proven by events to be "wrong", there is a search for the cause of the error. Inevitably somebody somewhere in the intelligence community did "get it right", and in retrospect it is "obvious" why that conclusion should have been reached. There will be a "reorganization" to "fix the problem". Of course, it won't do so. This is not to say all improvements are futile, but in fact most of them are.

IMO the attempt to make data more accessible to more analysts has accomplished little good. The subject matter experts (in their stovepipe organizations) always had access to the necessary data, and when they did not, they took action to get the data. There are lots of "facts" that can be connected after an event that nobody would have connected before the event happened. Even if somebody did, nobody would believe them and it would go nowhere. For example, there was a Colonel that exactly predicted the German offensive that became the battle of the bulge. Nobody believed him. There were initiatives after 9/11 to spread data more widely and break down the "stovepipes". IMO the result has been the destruction of information security without any real benefit. Thus the current questions about "need to know". If we intend that virtually any random person can make a connection between facts that (up until the person made this great leap of insight) are totally unrelated, how can there be anything such as "need to know"? IMO we should back down considerably from that dubious "goal".

Second paragraph, perhaps the truest words ever written on this board.  Sometimes the bias at the top is not all that significant, but down the chain of command there are plenty of people who want to move up and as a result facts get bent regardless.  If you are dealing with HUMINT sources, the bending can start at ground zero, source wants to buy his mistress a nice present so he gives you information that looks and sounds better than it is. And on and on it goes as the data goes up hill.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-19-2023

Incredible footage of Ukrainian soldiers defending against a Russian assault on their bunker and trenches. This is how Ukraine keeps the road open to Bakhmut.

https://youtu.be/fzL3rUfF_wY

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 04-19-2023

(04-19-2023, 05:57 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Incredible footage of Ukrainian soldiers defending against a Russian assault on their bunker and trenches.

https://youtu.be/fzL3rUfF_wY

War is so unfathomably dumb.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 04-19-2023

That channel had lots more videos from the fronts.  I watched a half-hour video of a medevac operating in Bakhmut.  You don't see gunfire, but you see more of the area, and interaction with a number of soldiers and a couple of civilians.

Yes, war is unfathomably dumb, but so is being subjugated by might.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 04-20-2023

(04-19-2023, 07:14 PM)M T Wrote:  That channel had lots more videos from the fronts.  I watched a half-hour video of a medevac operating in Bakhmut.  You don't see gunfire, but you see more of the area, and interaction with a number of soldiers and a couple of civilians.

Yes, war is unfathomably dumb, but so is being subjugated by might.

Sometimes wars are fought for all the wrong reasons, this one is for the right reason IMO.  The terrain looks like pictures of the front lines in WWI, nothing left alive but the guys in the trenches.  Whoever in the Ukraine Army is responsible for keeping those guys in small arms ammo and grenades is doing one ****of a job.
Very surprised the Orcs are sending their guys out with no support from mortars or artillery.  Maybe the CEP of their long range weapon is so bad they are more likely to kill their own guys. No wonder their casualty rate is so high.
Of course we have fought similar battles and most seem to eventually end up being a movie. Bastogne, Hamburger Hill, A Bridge Too Far, D Day, We Were Soldiers Once and Young, and many others. Some day , I hope the bravery of these guys will be similarly remembered.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-20-2023

In this short video you can see so much. Bravery, courage, fear, loss. You can tell the importance of cheap quadcopter drones for reconnaissance, and even see one briefly (I think it's Ukrainian but hard to know for sure). Friendly fire must be such a brobdingnagian risk in this type of setting.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 04-20-2023

Metallica's Disposable Heroes lyrics over scenes from the movie Hacksaw Ridge depicting war fighting similar to that Ukraine video. The comments are compelling too. 

We are about to see thousands of men senselessly killed and maimed in brutal fighting that will be Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russian invaders. Though I am rooting hard for Russian defeat, I feel sympathy for the poor Russian bastards being sent to die in service of the terrible man the song references, and admire the Ukrainian soldiers putting their lives on the line to save their country. What a human failure.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sY3KKJdJQ-o

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-20-2023

Really amazing that Ukraine is still able to hold part of Bakhmut. Russia has had Ukraine’s forces almost surrounded for months. Is there a consensus building as to whether or not Ukraine was wise to take this stand?  Maybe we won’t know until we can look back with the benefit of additional perspective.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-20-2023

Interesting article today from WaPo on Bakhmut and some of the leaked documents that pertain to it. Apparent confirmation Ukraine has DPICM cluster munitions though I don't think the author understands what they are.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/20/bakhmut-ukraine-war-leaked-documents/

Quote:When Palisa arrived at his post in mid-January, the assessments he heard from the officers around him echoed Washington’s pessimism. “Those guys said ‘I don’t know, maybe two or three weeks.’ But months later and we’re still here, trying to do our best to hold the city,” Palisa said, expressing confidence in the mission.

The leaked document also suggested worsening Russian morale and encouraging desertions with a “physiological operation campaign” highlighting the “expendability” of Moscow’s troops. Another bullet point encouraged Ukraine to target massed Russian forces with “dual purpose improved conventional munitions” — a combination of artillery and surface-to-air missiles — to counter assault waves.

......

“There is this fluid motion going on,” said a Ukrainian first lieutenant who asked to be identified by his call sign Tatarin, in keeping with military protocol. Russian attacks along the front allow their forces to advance a few hundred meters before being pushed back hours later. “It’s hard to distinguish exactly where the front line is because it moves like Jell-O,” he said.

“The situation on the road is constantly moving,” Tatarin said, describing how positions shift throughout the day along Ukraine’s main supply road in and out of Bakhmut. “In the morning we can control it, and then we can lose it and take it back. But most of the time Ukrainian forces still control the road.”

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - thatboy - 04-20-2023

(04-20-2023, 06:33 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Interesting article today from WaPo on Bakhmut and some of the leaked documents that pertain to it. Apparent confirmation Ukraine has DPICM cluster munitions though I don't think the author understands what they are.

I thought we weren't posting leaked intelligence anymore?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-20-2023

I'm posting quotes from the Washington Post...pretty much any article on Ukraine these days references the documents.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 04-21-2023

(04-20-2023, 10:42 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I'm posting quotes from the Washington Post...pretty much any article on Ukraine these days references the documents.

The DoD's position is that the documents in question remain classified until declassified and service members and employees of the DoD are not to read them or download them.  Discussing them in an on line forum like this is also something that might get you in trouble.  So any member who is affected by these rules could get into trouble. 
When the horse has left the barn, it is hard for most to understand why someone else is insisting the horse is still in the barn when obviously isn't. I assume there are members here who have high level clearances and are subject to DoD rules regarding classified information. You don't want to be identified as an employee who isn't following the rules.  Clearances are given and taken away and if you lose your clearance you probably lose your job.

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Russian pilots seem to have navigation problems.  I am sure he was well received when he landed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65344370

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-21-2023

BC's ask was to not post the leaked documents. If we  can't post or discuss news articles that reference them, we may as well just close this thread.

Most posters on the board don't have to worry about security clearances. If it is an issue for you, then it seems simple enough to refrain from commenting.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-21-2023

(04-21-2023, 08:28 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  BC's ask was to not post the leaked documents. If we  can't post or discuss news articles that reference them, we may as well just close this thread.

Most posters on the board don't have to worry about security clearances. If it is an issue for you, then it seems simple enough to refrain from commenting.

Here is what BC said. Note “classified information” not “classified documents”:

“I’ve been asked to request that classified information, even info that has been made public due to leaks elsewhere, not be shared here, as it can be problematic for people with a security clearance.  Speculation about the alleged leaker is fine, as is discussion of the consequence of the leaks.


Posting for a friend.”

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-21-2023

BC would you like to clarify? To me, even before the leaks, there was plenty of potentially classified information that was being discussed on this board that was posted in the open press so this all seems pretty arbitrary.

If you have a security clearance and you think what is being reported in NYT and WaPo etc is not kosher for you to discuss here, then don't, is my humble opinion. It will be hard to avoid any discussion or links to those news articles if we want to continue discussing this conflict.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Leftcoast - 04-21-2023

Quick comment - My guess is some of the most insightful commentary on this thread is from folks who have (or maybe had (past tense)) security clearances.  If we can keep the thread open by simply not posting links to docs then I am happy to comply.  I believe we're OK as long as we don't post links to sites that either post or explicitly cite the leaked material.  

If we can follow those somewhat restrictive rules we may be very glad this thread is still open when the leaks are old news and the spring/summer offensives begin.

BC/Mods - Please correct if I misstated your ask.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-21-2023

I'm still trying to figure out what exactly the problem is.

If somebody has a security clearance can they not be in the same room as a copy of the NYT? If somebody in the room is talking about a story they read about Ukraine in the NYT do they have to cover their ears? I think obviously not. They just shouldn't pipe in and say- "all the stuff in that story is true, and furthermore.....".

If somebody posts a link to a story regarding the documents, it seems simple for anybody worried about this issue to just not discuss whatever part of the article or link they are concerned about. Most of the article I just posted was about Bakhmut with interviews with soldiers there, and some assessments by the intelligence community that were in the leaked documents (that were previously referenced in open source reports before the leaks, we had heard before for instance about western concerns about how long Bakhmut could hold out, probably from national security staffers discussing ostensibly classified information with a reporter). Seems silly to not be able to post or discuss such an article.

I interpreted BC's initial comment to mean that we shouldn't post links to the actual leaked documents. I subsequently have posted several articles that referenced things that were discussed in those leaked documents and this is the first time that has been called out as some sort of problem.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 04-22-2023

(04-21-2023, 03:44 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I'm still trying to figure out what exactly the problem is.

If somebody has a security clearance can they not be in the same room as a copy of the NYT? If somebody in the room is talking about a story they read about Ukraine in the NYT do they have to cover their ears? I think obviously not. They just shouldn't pipe in and say- "all the stuff in that story is true, and furthermore.....".

If somebody posts a link to a story regarding the documents, it seems simple for anybody worried about this issue to just not discuss whatever part of the article or link they are concerned about. Most of the article I just posted was about Bakhmut with interviews with soldiers there, and some assessments by the intelligence community that were in the leaked documents (that were previously referenced in open source reports before the leaks, we had heard before for instance about western concerns about how long Bakhmut could hold out, probably from national security staffers discussing ostensibly classified information with a reporter). Seems silly to not be able to post or discuss such an article.

I interpreted BC's initial comment to mean that we shouldn't post links to the actual leaked documents. I subsequently have posted several articles that referenced things that were discussed in those leaked documents and this is the first time that has been called out as some sort of problem.

You ask a very good question.  We know that DoD says that the fact the documents were compromised does not declassify them or the information in the document.  It is really the information that is the source of the classification.  So now you have the appropriate clearance but not the need to know.  Your friend  meets you for breakfast and brings the NYT which reproduces one of the documents on the front page. Your friend then shows you the article and asks what you think.  
So should you even read the article?  You don't have the need to know and the information has been declared still classified. Your friend has no clearances of any type and by default is not allowed access to the information.  But he has the information since it is now in the public domain.  So what is the proper thing for you to do?  DoD has told you the information remains classified, so since you do not have Need to Know are you prohibited from talking about it, reading the article etc. I would really like BC to clarify the issue.

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