Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-13-2023

Blows my mind

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 04-13-2023

(04-13-2023, 12:45 AM)GK3 Wrote:  The Leak

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/12/discord-leaked-documents/

Can someone explain to me how some 20 something who fits this background has both the Need to Know and Clearances needed to have this kind of access?  Do we pass out Top Secret Clearances like candy now days?  Back in the day at about the same age I had TS + clearances that would have given me access to this kind of stuff, but my Need to Know stuff of this level was non existent.  What kind of background checks do we do now days, none? A very sad situation.

I don't know if this fully explains the reason why 20-somethings have Top Secret clearance and access to these kinds of files. But this 13-year old article on the massive expansion of security-related governmental entities may shed some light on the topic:

Top Secret America: A hidden world, growing beyond control - The Washington Post

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-13-2023

I am going to wait until arrests are made to be totally sure it was a "20 something" person who is actually behind all this, but in any case the broad scope of the documents indicates a serious breach of "need to know". We don't know all the details. We do know some of the documents were "altered" to make Russia look better. Non-US intelligence agencies have confirmed this. These documents unfortunately may not all come from a single source.

There is obviously no question that the custody chain for classified documents in the US is seriously broken, and has been for quite a while. That must change, and that change can only come "from the top". There are lots of "20 somethings" in the military that have access to classified materials. However, these materials are oriented to their job and and are not intelligence regarding foreign nations. The number of people who had access to Ukrainian war plans should be minuscule and the number of copies should be even smaller. Obviously, that isn't the case or we would already know the source of those leaked documents.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 04-13-2023

(04-13-2023, 07:53 AM)Goose Wrote:  I am going to wait until arrests are made to be totally sure it was a "20 something" person who is actually behind all this, but in any case the broad scope of the documents indicates a serious breach of "need to know". We don't know all the details. We do know some of the documents were "altered" to make Russia look better. Non-US intelligence agencies have confirmed this. These documents unfortunately may not all come from a single source.

There is obviously no question that the custody chain for classified documents in the US is seriously broken, and has been for quite a while. That must change, and that change can only come "from the top". There are lots of "20 somethings" in the military that have access to classified materials. However, these materials are oriented to their job and and are not intelligence regarding foreign nations. The number of people who had access to Ukrainian war plans should be minuscule and the number of copies should be even smaller. Obviously, that isn't the case or we would already know the source of those leaked documents.

Absolutely!  Unfortunately I am tempted to say far too much and run afoul of the "no politics" rule.  "Can only come from the Top" says it all. The big issue here is Clearance versus Need to Know. As I see it today, Need to Know is a badge of power and Influence, it no longer really means Need to Know. Clearance is sort of like getting a driver's license, but that license doesn't allow you to drive a long haul truck. Need to Know gives you the right to drive the truck. If you aren't a truck driver, you don't need the special license.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-13-2023

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-guided-rockets-ukraine-being-211854014.html

Unfortunately there are many "reports" on the Ukraine war that are clearly full of errors. This is one such report. Successful GPS jamming can cause a JDAM/JDAM-ER to miss it's target by a greater CEP, but will not affect it's fuse or detonator. Successful GPS jamming is in no way indicated by the "dud rate". The on board INS will keep the bomb mostly on target if the aircraft/bomb had a good GPS position at launch even if the GPS loses the solution. The larger number of "duds" must be due to other factors. One possible factor is inadequate kinetic energy at launch, which causes the bomb to land "flat", not pitched down. The guidance package is trying to stretch the range to reach the target. The Ukrainian aircraft almost assuredly don't have a computer that can fly the release track for them, or even tell them when it is "in the green" to launch. This has to be done by hand in a contested environment. Very easy to launch too soon/too low.

A much more accurate story:
https://eurasiantimes.com/new-attack-punctures-us-jdam-bombs-in-ukraine/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-13-2023

By turns funny and pathetic. It gets dumber and dumber. 21yo air national guardsmen winning internet points with racist gamer teens. Oof.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/13/world/documents-leak-leaker-identity.html

Quote:The leader of a small online gaming chat group where a trove of classified U.S. intelligence documents leaked over the last few months is a 21-year-old member of the intelligence wing of the Massachusetts Air National Guard, according to interviews and documents reviewed by The New York Times.

The national guardsman, whose name is Jack Teixeira, oversaw a private online group named Thug Shaker Central, where about 20 to 30 people, mostly young men and teenagers, came together over a shared love of guns, racist online memes and video games.

Also sad that apparently OSINT and news media are beating our intelligence agencies to the punch here.

Quote:Airman Teixeira’s mother, Dawn, speaking outside her home in Massachusetts on Thursday, confirmed that her son was a member of the Air National Guard and said he had recently been working overnight shifts at a base on Cape Cod. In the last few days, he had changed his phone number, she said.

Later, someone who appeared to be Airman Teixeira drove onto the property in a red pickup truck.

When Times reporters approached the house again, the truck was parked in the driveway. Airman Teixeira’s mother and a man were standing outside in the driveway.

When asked if Airman Teixeira was there and willing to speak, the man said: “He needs to get an attorney if things are flowing the way they are going right now. The Feds will be around soon, I’m sure.”

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-13-2023

Airmain Texeira-
[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1646553944531795972?s=20
[/tweet]

This is more fun. Video of the Neptune missiles that took out Moskva.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1646545907364626432?s=20[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 04-13-2023

There are hundreds of older IT workers who have a lot lengthier history to background check, who won't sell out their country in the name of making a name for themselves, and have no political agendas. They are looking for jobs as they are phased out of the tech world. Sensitive information will be much more secure in the hands of 50 somethings than barely 20-somethings. Think the Pentagon needs to take note.

There is no need to go through any kind of traditional military training, with physical tests, weapons training, etc., if simply working with information and will never see combat.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-13-2023

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1646592080293122067?s=20[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 81alum - 04-13-2023

(04-13-2023, 12:45 AM)GK3 Wrote:  The Leak

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/12/discord-leaked-documents/

Can someone explain to me how some 20 something who fits this background has both the Need to Know and Clearances needed to have this kind of access?  Do we pass out Top Secret Clearances like candy now days?  Back in the day at about the same age I had TS + clearances that would have given me access to this kind of stuff, but my Need to Know stuff of this level was non existent.  What kind of background checks do we do now days, none? A very sad situation.

I was marveling at this.  Somewhat reminiscent of Chelsea Manning, who was 23 at the time of her leak.  But even younger and far more serious.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-13-2023

It's not really serious to imagine the US intelligence system functioning without many many many young people doing this work.

Still much more to be learned here. Clearly better control of paper documents is one major thing. Better compartmentalization too perhaps, but the more barriers you put up, the more things can get missed if the right people don't connect the dots.

Also, you probably want some of the young people working on the counterintelligence side of things. I'm guessing the head honchos of the various US intelligence agencies have little insight into the world of these teen gamers on discord like a zoomed or millennial would.

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Anybody missing their T90A tank in Louisiana??

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-t-90-tank-from-ukraine-mysteriously-appears-at-u-s-truck-stop

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-13-2023

From https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/13/us/leaked-documents-massachusetts-air-national-guard.html

Quote:Jack Teixeira, the 21-year-old Airman First Class in the Massachusetts Air National Guard who was arrested on Thursday in connection with the intelligence breach, was trained as what the military calls a “Cyber Transport Systems Journeyman.”

The service’s career website says cybertransport systems specialists are responsible for keeping the force’s communication networks running.

He is not an analyst. He connects no dots nor does he have a need to ever know what the dots contain. He has a TS because he works with crypto systems that require it in spaces where TS material is present.

National Guard Intelligence units are a source of intelligence data (when federalized). They send data upstream and receive relevant analysis downstream on a need-to-know basis. They are the "front end" of the intelligence stream. Under no circumstance I can imagine could they possibly need to know the Ukrainian plans for their offensive or the composition of the units involved. Why it was present there is unimaginable. How it was handled is worse. I would expect all the Ukrainian data is SCI, or should be. No way should it have been available to Teixieira.

His age is totally immaterial. Obviously the military is basically a pyramid with young people at the base and older people at the top. There are quite a few 18 year-olds with TS clearances. Most are very loyal. Quite a few are careless, but then often their superiors are as well. OTOH, General Petraeus was 60 years old when he improperly supplied classified data to a woman with whom he was having an affair. Aldrich Ames was 44 when he became a Soviet agent. John Walker was 30. It is impossible to generalize by age.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 04-14-2023

(04-13-2023, 08:40 PM)Goose Wrote:  It is impossible to generalize by age.

This is a statement that can’t be disproved. However, we aren’t living in a 100% world either, and a 21 yo AF NG Airman isn’t performing rocket surgery.

If age doesn’t matter, how is it impossible for mil to run without young people doing back office work? There are hundreds, maybe thousands of older adults who can do IT work. While it is true they can steal and expose national security information, the odds of them doing so are lower. This in an endeavor where it makes sense to reduce risk as much as possible. Older people with longer histories can be better vetted for security clearances than young people not much is known about.

Honestly, give those between 50 and 65 completely free healthcare before Medicare eligible, and recruiters would have to turn people away. It may or may not be feasible to do this, but the Pentagon has a big enough budget, and Congress could certainly look into how feasible opening up positions for older adults to do non-combat operations and be trusted with sensitive material, would be.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-14-2023

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/TimCas10/status/1646867014571401219?s=20[/tweet]

Derp.
[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1646895873425588225?s=20[/tweet]

Apparently the US Gov (barely) beat Toler and the OSINT folks to the ID.
[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1646889906029862914?s=20[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 04-14-2023

(04-14-2023, 08:19 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  [Tweet]https://twitter.com/TimCas10/status/1646867014571401219?s=20[/tweet]

As others have pointed out, our system is badly broken and it needs to be fixed, but that will require people at the top to be willing to admit the system is broken.  I don't understand "not of great consequence" to be any sort of admission that there is a big problem that needs repair. I am sure some careers will be ruined and someone will have to pay a price just so it can be said action is being taken, but I seriously doubt those actions will include trying to fix the problem.
Somewhere, some place, a man or woman on the ground who does the dirty work, is going to suddenly find things more difficult.  Intelligence collection is not all about the NSA, communication intercepts and the like. HUMINT is still part of the game and sometimes a critical part.  If we can't keep our mouths shut, the HUMINT take will drop drastically.
I wonder what James Jesus Angleton would think about all this.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 04-14-2023

The weeping and crying and gnashing of teeth has started. One side is determined to get to the bottom of the mess.  Another side wonders if it might be an American Maskirovka. A third side is hoping it will all go away.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-14-2023

(04-14-2023, 08:41 AM)GK3 Wrote:  As others have pointed out, our system is badly broken and it needs to be fixed, but that will require people at the top to be willing to admit the system is broken.  I don't understand "not of great consequence" to be any sort of admission that there is a big problem that needs repair. I am sure some careers will be ruined and someone will have to pay a price just so it can be said action is being taken, but I seriously doubt those actions will include trying to fix the problem.
Somewhere, some place, a man or woman on the ground who does the dirty work, is going to suddenly find things more difficult.  Intelligence collection is not all about the NSA, communication intercepts and the like. HUMINT is still part of the game and sometimes a critical part.  If we can't keep our mouths shut, the HUMINT take will drop drastically.

I wonder what James Jesus Angleton would think about all this.

Couldn't agree more, on all counts. The eroding security environment has been going on for many years. It didn't happen overnight. It could however be fixed relatively quickly. It will require the people at the top to become "true believers" and enforce the existing rules at all levels, without exception or compromise. I see no evidence that is going to happen, and that we will indeed continue to damage our HUMINT capabilities, sometimes literally fatally.

It has and will continue to damage our ability to obtain information from other nations, because they simply won't trust us. That may be even worse. Many of our close allies do not have goals that are identical to the US. They have in the past not been totally "straight" with us for that reason. Events like the recent one give them even more reason to withhold information, fearing compromise of their methods and sources. It also encourages countries like China to attempt espionage in the US, given a high probability of success.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 04-14-2023

(04-14-2023, 03:13 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  

(04-13-2023, 08:40 PM)Goose Wrote:  It is impossible to generalize by age.

This is a statement that can’t be disproved. However, we aren’t living in a 100% world either, and a 21 yo AF NG Airman isn’t performing rocket surgery.

If age doesn’t matter, how is it impossible for mil to run without young people doing back office work? There are hundreds, maybe thousands of older adults who can do IT work. While it is true they can steal and expose national security information, the odds of them doing so are lower. This in an endeavor where it makes sense to reduce risk as much as possible. Older people with longer histories can be better vetted for security clearances than young people not much is known about.

Honestly, give those between 50 and 65 completely free healthcare before Medicare eligible, and recruiters would have to turn people away. It may or may not be feasible to do this, but the Pentagon has a big enough budget, and Congress could certainly look into how feasible opening up positions for older adults to do non-combat operations and be trusted with sensitive material, would be.

I wonder about that. Older people are far more likeliy to have crippling financial burdens and may be susceptible to bribes. I suspect they're more cynical and less idealistic.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-14-2023

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1646898143672299520?s=20[/tweet]

This is a first for me to see- a Ukrainian drones dropping an unarmed grenade for a Ukrainian soldier to then use.
[Tweet]https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1646777702823743488?s=20[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-14-2023

(04-14-2023, 12:41 PM)Mick Wrote:  

(04-14-2023, 03:13 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  

(04-13-2023, 08:40 PM)Goose Wrote:  It is impossible to generalize by age.

This is a statement that can’t be disproved. However, we aren’t living in a 100% world either, and a 21 yo AF NG Airman isn’t performing rocket surgery.

If age doesn’t matter, how is it impossible for mil to run without young people doing back office work? There are hundreds, maybe thousands of older adults who can do IT work. While it is true they can steal and expose national security information, the odds of them doing so are lower. This in an endeavor where it makes sense to reduce risk as much as possible. Older people with longer histories can be better vetted for security clearances than young people not much is known about.

Honestly, give those between 50 and 65 completely free healthcare before Medicare eligible, and recruiters would have to turn people away. It may or may not be feasible to do this, but the Pentagon has a big enough budget, and Congress could certainly look into how feasible opening up positions for older adults to do non-combat operations and be trusted with sensitive material, would be.

I wonder about that. Older people are far more likeliy to have crippling financial burdens and may be susceptible to bribes. I suspect they're more cynical and less idealistic.

It is very difficult to predict who will intentionally mishandle classified information. First of all, very few people do so. N is a really small number. The security clearance investigations have been relatively ineffective in identifying these people. All the people who are convicted of espionage passed their background checks. In general, the most serious leaks/spy operations have been committed by more mature people because those people tend to have better access to such data. Those that spy for ideological reasons often do little or no damage in their younger years because they simply don't "know" enough and the few young people who spy for money don't know enough (at least in the past) to make it worth the risk to employ them.

The security system is designed to restrict access to those people who really have a "need to know". That is directly responsible for the pattern of few younger people having much access. It also means that it is difficult for the opposition to get a complete picture from any given spy because that spy simply doesn't know it "all". Unfortunately the breakdown in that system has resulted in many unlikely people gaining access to lots of highly classified data. This data is often delivered in written form which is easy to duplicate. These people are not supervised by any security apparatus. In many cases these people  are simply careless and do not protect what they have/know. In other cases they disclose this data intentionally or make it easy for unauthorized people to obtain it. It has also generated situations where people intentionally reveal information to increase their own self-importance.

That was much less common in the past, although it did happen. That is exactly what Petraeus did. Teixeira did the same. The difference was that Petraeus was head of CIA. His failure to protect information was always going to be a big problem. Fortunately he only "leaked" it to one person who kept almost all of it to herself. Teixeira OTOH had no business having access to the kind of information he apparently did. His command didn't have a need to know, let alone him. Situations where relatively young people can give away important classified data are not new. Jeffrey Carney is an example. However, he didn't do it to gain status with his "peers", girlfriend, etc. Also, while he knew a lot about USAF Sigint, he didn't know anything about anything else. He didn't have access. That is the difference. Chelsea Manning OTOH was able to download lots of things she had no need to know and no legitimate "professional" interest in. Indeed, the system is broken.

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