Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-11-2023

(04-11-2023, 02:17 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  The fact that the late 2019 SCIF breach didn't result in appropriate consequences to those involved makes a mockery of the (much-needed) rules and secrecy.  Tenured/career military and civilian staff have been fired/discharged/terminated for much less.

IMO heads should indeed roll. However, it won't happen unless and until both the Congress and the President agree and ensure that they and their direct reports must function according to the stringent rules that their lower tier subordinates ostensibly follow. It wouldn't surprise me at all if it turns out the recent leak was due to carelessness/malfeasance  at a lower level, but if the upper echelon had appropriately restricted the "need to know", the lower level leak of so much disparate information would be impossible. No one person at the lower levels would have access to such a broad range of information.

Unfortunately, the current large disclosure could be from an accumulation of data by Russia or other such actors that obscures the source(s).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-11-2023

Ukraine will indeed start one or more offensives in the spring, depending on the weather (among other things). Ukraine will be doing so without air superiority. They have known this all along. The US analysis of any such Ukrainian offensive is colored by our expectation that the Russian air force will be extremely effective against troops and vehicles in the open. That would certainly be the case if it were a US air force, but it is unclear what Russia can and will do. Undoubtedly, we will all soon find out.

At low altitudes, Ukraine continues to have a potent defensive capability. At altitudes of 10k feet or more, the capability decreases rapidly. One complicating factor is that neither Russia nor Ukraine can use their IFF to prevent fratricide. This may allow the Ukrainian air force to operate in the 10k and above region successfully and counter Russian air because the Russians can't use their long range air to air missiles for fear of hitting their own aircraft. It is also true that Russia lacks large numbers of stand-off weapons (like Mavericks, Hellfire/Brimstone) that can hit moving vehicles from above 10k feet. It will be risky business. Ukraine will be betting they can contain/stalemate Russian air and break through Russian static defenses. It will be a costly effort even when it succeeds. However, if the situation becomes fluid the bad, slow Russian command and control may negate their possible air superiority.

Lets hope Ukraine has success, because if they do not, Russia will have time to build up for another offensive of their own before winter. It will also mean Ukraine must develop a new air force to have any chance in this war.  The US would never consider mounting an offensive without at least a stalemate in the air. We haven't actually ever done it in recent years (since Guadalcanal probably) without air superiority. If Ukraine demonstrates there is no alternative to at least a stalemate in the air and the US declines to supply the weapons to accomplish that, it is game over. Both Russia and Ukraine will know that eventually Russia will win. They just have to keep at it.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-11-2023

https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-lend-500000-rounds-artillery-shells-us-report-2023-04-12/

Really great news.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-11-2023

(04-11-2023, 08:36 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-lend-500000-rounds-artillery-shells-us-report-2023-04-12/

Really great news.

Indeed it is. Korea also can produce shells faster than we can, so their own stockpile will be replenished pretty rapidly.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-11-2023

Reuters with another interesting story today

https://www.reuters.com/world/leaked-us-intel-document-claims-serbia-agreed-arm-ukraine-2023-04-12/

Serbia operates Mig 29s and their associated missiles, and some older Soviet air defense systems, and could also have some Soviet calibre artillery shells as well. Seems only hard evidence is of Grad rockets, which is likely less valuable than any of the above, but I think most everybody has assumed no way Serbia was going to supply anything. Glad the US was able to do some convincing apparently.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 04-12-2023

We sit here and observe what the U.S. will not give Ukraine, like ATCMS and air power, and wonder why not, with the need for a counteroffensive known to all. The assumption is Ukraine needs more to win, so why aren’t we giving them everything needed to do so? I’ve complained of half-measures for months now myself.

But what if Ukraine and NATO Allies actually know Ukraine is in fact being given what is needed to achieve the objectives?

One under the radar reality I’m starting to appreciate is Ukraine’s use of small drone air craft. I’ve read Ukraine might be able to deploy thousands of them. These aren’t 4th gen fighters but in mass numbers kamikaze drones can be a good substitute. Not only can they be detonation threats, they can also really mess with the heads of Russian forces and be a major distraction. It’s bad enough to know yer being targeted by artillery, tanks, and mortars, but throw in being surrounded by difficult to see tiny flying vehicles that can also kill you, and it’s hard to imagine being able to actually do anything but flee or surrender. Some drones might even deliver surrender offers themselves.
 
The Iranian kamikaze drones are big and expensive, and can be shot down rather easily. Ukraine has been able to be pretty effective with much smaller and cheaper hand held ones that are too small for most air defense that is not gonna be with Russian forces because Ukraine doesn’t offer any conventional air threat.

It seems inevitable Ukraine will get more conventional air power, but western planners might not want to give to Ukraine for fear they will start attacking inside Russia and provoke a larger war. Part of the plan might be to just return as many dead sons and fathers as possible to the Russian people to erode away support for war. Air power might get it over more quickly in theory, but Ukraine attacking in Russia would risk getting Russian people more motivated to fight Ukraine and help Putin.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 04-12-2023

Do we have any idea what the most accurate casualty statistics are for both sides? This article indicates that Ukraine is underreporting battle deaths by an enormous margin.

As spring offensive nears, Ukraine is drafting reinforcements (msn.com)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 04-12-2023

(04-11-2023, 09:18 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(04-11-2023, 08:36 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-lend-500000-rounds-artillery-shells-us-report-2023-04-12/

Really great news.

Indeed it is. Korea also can produce shells faster than we can, so their own stockpile will be replenished pretty rapidly.

Considering South Korea's neighbor, the willingness to give such a large number of shells makes me think they number they have in storage is astronomical.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-12-2023

(04-12-2023, 07:55 AM)GK3 Wrote:  

(04-11-2023, 09:18 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(04-11-2023, 08:36 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-lend-500000-rounds-artillery-shells-us-report-2023-04-12/

Really great news.

Indeed it is. Korea also can produce shells faster than we can, so their own stockpile will be replenished pretty rapidly.

Considering South Korea's neighbor, the willingness to give such a large number of shells makes me think they number they have in storage is astronomical.

Indeed it is. That said, it is probable that their neighbor has more. Not all of them will work, but they have them. The rate that both sides intend to use these shells is mind boggling. South Korea has developed a capable and large (both quantity and quality) military-industrial complex. What they don't have is lots and lots of troops. There are better jobs out there for young Koreans and they don't want to be in the army. The opposite is true in North Korea. At least the army eats. A war there will make Ukraine vs. Russia look minor league, and that is assuming the North does not use nuclear weapons. Too many South Koreans live under the North Korean artillery envelope. The civilian casualties will be enormous. This is one war that just cannot be allowed to happen.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 04-12-2023

Adding on to a potential North Korea vs South Korea war, another danger is that North Korea, if the DPRK did want to invade South Korea, they don't have to rely on a neighbor like Russia did to attack the capital, as Seoul is miles away from the border.  North Korea could amass troops much easier and faster than Russia did, and not have the same logistical issues.  That being said, I think North Korea wants to stay isolated, and relies on nukes to avoid foreign intervention.  Of course, when one leader has absolute power, that can change quickly.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-12-2023

(04-12-2023, 03:33 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  We sit here and observe what the U.S. will not give Ukraine, like ATCMS and air power, and wonder why not, with the need for a counteroffensive known to all. The assumption is Ukraine needs more to win, so why aren’t we giving them everything needed to do so? I’ve complained of half-measures for months now myself.



But what if Ukraine and NATO Allies actually know Ukraine is in fact being given what is needed to achieve the objectives?

Nobody can "know" Ukraine is receiving "enough". In war, you never have "enough" until you have won. The decision to restrict weapons type and numbers is based on an analysis done by "experts" that takes into account many weighting factors and is at best a guess at the probability of the outcome. Then the politicians decide based on their own arcane process what is actually "OK" and how US, Russian, and "world" governments and people will react. It is anything but precise and scientific. It may be a necessary process, but it is a very high variance one.

Quote:One under the radar reality I’m starting to appreciate is Ukraine’s use of small drone air craft. I’ve read Ukraine might be able to deploy thousands of them. These aren’t 4th gen fighters but in mass numbers kamikaze drones can be a good substitute. Not only can they be detonation threats, they can also really mess with the heads of Russian forces and be a major distraction. It’s bad enough to know yer being targeted by artillery, tanks, and mortars, but throw in being surrounded by difficult to see tiny flying vehicles that can also kill you, and it’s hard to imagine being able to actually do anything but flee or surrender. Some drones might even deliver surrender offers themselves.
 

The Iranian kamikaze drones are big and expensive, and can be shot down rather easily. Ukraine has been able to be pretty effective with much smaller and cheaper hand held ones that are too small for most air defense that is not gonna be with Russian forces because Ukraine doesn’t offer any conventional air threat.

The "mass number" of Ukrainian drones are mostly Chinese made commercial ones. They are useful for reconnaissance but are not capable of carrying enough weight to be a real "suicide drone". The kinetic effect of these drones is basically nil. Nobody is going to run away from them for that reason. There are lots of other things out there that are more probable to kill you and the Russian troops aren't fleeing those either. Being located OTOH may cause them to displace, but that may not be a retreat :-). Russian ECM is now making these drones almost useless, as the Ukrainian operators lose control of the drone after about 400 meters penetration into Russian territory. This is apparently nation wide and common now. Ukraine will undoubtedly develop new electronics to drop in these drones, which will require another development round of ECM by Russia. That hasn't happened yet and will create additional logistics/technical delays for Ukraine.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-12-2023

Quote:They are useful for reconnaissance but are not capable of carrying enough weight to be a real "suicide drone". The kinetic effect of these drones is basically nil. Nobody is going to run away from them for that reason. There are lots of other things out there that are more probable to kill you and the Russian troops aren't fleeing those either. Being located OTOH may cause them to displace, but that may not be a retreat :-). Russian ECM is now making these drones almost useless, as the Ukrainian operators lose control of the drone after about 400 meters penetration into Russian territory. This is apparently nation wide and common now. Ukraine will undoubtedly develop new electronics to drop in these drones, which will require another development round of ECM by Russia. That hasn't happened yet and will create additional logistics/technical delays for Ukraine.

Every day there are probably dozens of videos of small quadcopter drones that Ukraine has used to either drop grenades or attach an explosive and fly directly at Russian soldiers or equipment. Russian ECM often means the last few meters are static on the video display of the FPV drones, but they get hits all the same. True these are not deep strike type drones, but they are having an effect. (Smart) Russians definitely run away from them, the dumb ones try to shoot them with their rifle and get blown up.

Here are some just from this morning

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/bigSAC10/status/1646119266289164288?s=20[/tweet]

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/bigSAC10/status/1646185054714974216?s=20[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/bigSAC10/status/1646185679888556032?s=20[/tweet]

Hmmm are tweets no longer able to be embedded? Not working for me but here are URLs if you want to see.

https://twitter.com/bigSAC10/status/1646119266289164288?s=20

https://twitter.com/bigSAC10/status/1646185054714974216?s=20

https://twitter.com/bigSAC10/status/1646185679888556032?s=20

None are particularly gory FWIW but the poster does have many others that are.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-12-2023

(04-12-2023, 10:11 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  

Quote:They are useful for reconnaissance but are not capable of carrying enough weight to be a real "suicide drone". The kinetic effect of these drones is basically nil. Nobody is going to run away from them for that reason. There are lots of other things out there that are more probable to kill you and the Russian troops aren't fleeing those either. Being located OTOH may cause them to displace, but that may not be a retreat :-). Russian ECM is now making these drones almost useless, as the Ukrainian operators lose control of the drone after about 400 meters penetration into Russian territory. This is apparently nation wide and common now. Ukraine will undoubtedly develop new electronics to drop in these drones, which will require another development round of ECM by Russia. That hasn't happened yet and will create additional logistics/technical delays for Ukraine.

Every day there are probably dozens of videos of small quadcopter drones that Ukraine has used to either drop grenades or attach an explosive and fly directly at Russian soldiers or equipment. Russian ECM often means the last few meters are static on the video display of the FPV drones, but they get hits all the same. True these are not deep strike type drones, but they are having an effect. (Smart) Russians definitely run away from them, the dumb ones try to shoot them with their rifle and get blown up.

Here are some just from this morning
Hmmm are tweets no longer able to be embedded? Not working for me but here are URLs if you want to see.

I think you must log in to see them. They are "age restricted content".

Quote:None are particularly gory FWIW but the poster does have many others that are.

You may be unaware of the following:
https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-now-effectively-counters-commercial-drones-used-for-reconnaissance-war-news-50317172.html
Since this is from a "reputable" pro-Ukraine source I think it probable it is accurate. The FPV video freezes because the drone is no longer transmitting (it has hit the target), not because of ECM. The problem isn't a loss of video, it is a loss of control over the drone.

Jamming the drone's receiver is much easier than jamming the user's receiver because of geometry. The drone is closer to the Russians and is within line of sight, therefore easily illuminated. The operator is further away, on the ground, and in an unknown location. This is not to say Ukraine has had no successes with dropping grenade-sized bombs on individual Russians. Both sides have found such drones annoying, but their ability to locate the enemy and "walk in" indirect fire is far, far more dangerous than a few grenades ever could be. That is the main reason to hide from such vehicles. FWIW, Ukraine has demonstrated and showcased man-pack drone jammers that work well on the somewhat more "combat hardened" Orlan-10 receivers. The Quadcopters were never designed to resist jamming. Messing up the uplink is pretty trivial.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 04-12-2023

(04-11-2023, 03:49 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(04-11-2023, 02:17 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  The fact that the late 2019 SCIF breach didn't result in appropriate consequences to those involved makes a mockery of the (much-needed) rules and secrecy.  Tenured/career military and civilian staff have been fired/discharged/terminated for much less.

IMO heads should indeed roll. However, it won't happen unless and until both the Congress and the President agree and ensure that they and their direct reports must function according to the stringent rules that their lower tier subordinates ostensibly follow. It wouldn't surprise me at all if it turns out the recent leak was due to carelessness/malfeasance  at a lower level, but if the upper echelon had appropriately restricted the "need to know", the lower level leak of so much disparate information would be impossible. No one person at the lower levels would have access to such a broad range of information.

Unfortunately, the current large disclosure could be from an accumulation of data by Russia or other such actors that obscures the source(s).

I hope the leaked data is general enough so that Russian Counter Intel people can't identify the leakers at their end.  If they can, our leaker may well end up immediately responsible for the death of the Russian source.  In the good old days, Russians getting caught spying for us generally got a one way ticket to the basement in Lubyanka.  Should that happen it will throw a pail of very cold water on our future efforts to replace the lost source or sources.  No one wants to talk and die, they would rather just keep their mouths shut.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 04-12-2023

(04-12-2023, 10:11 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Hmmm are tweets no longer able to be embedded? Not working for me but here are URLs if you want to see. 

Elon Musk has decided to charge outside organizations to use the Twitter API. So maybe whoever provides this board's software isn't willing to pay for it, and that's why tweets are no longer embedding?

https://mashable.com/article/twitter-elon-musk-paid-enterprise-api-access-pricing

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-12-2023

I guess that an interesting article Goose, but as I mentioned, there are a ton of quadcopter drones videos that are recent and obviously efficacious. Quadcopter drones can take out lightly armored vehicles and trucks along with infantry. Perhaps it is more difficult now due to ECM, but Ukraine is still using them to very good effect. I see many new videos like this every day.

I encourage anyone with some spare change to donate to buying thermal camera equipped drones for Ukraine. As you can see in the video, they are very effective for artillery spotting. 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1645810492143992832?s=20[/tweet]

Weird, that seems to work. The other videos I posted above did not have age warnings either like some other videos from that user. So I really don't know.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-12-2023

(04-12-2023, 01:39 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Weird, that seems to work. The other videos I posted above did not have age warnings either like some other videos from that user. So I really don't know.

FWIW, all three of the links in your previous post show the "age restricted" warning when I click on them. Possibly it is a timing thing and the twitter folks took some time to decide they needed age restrictions?????

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-12-2023

Strange, I see age warnings on other of his videos, but these I still do not. Maybe it's because I'm logged in to Twitter already? Thanks for heads up.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-12-2023

More from WaPo on the dumbest intelligence leak of all time. If this dude isn't locked up already he will be soon.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/12/discord-leaked-documents/

Am optimistic outlook on Ukraine's upcoming offensive

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraines-best-chance

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 04-13-2023

The Leak

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/12/discord-leaked-documents/

Can someone explain to me how some 20 something who fits this background has both the Need to Know and Clearances needed to have this kind of access?  Do we pass out Top Secret Clearances like candy now days?  Back in the day at about the same age I had TS + clearances that would have given me access to this kind of stuff, but my Need to Know stuff of this level was non existent.  What kind of background checks do we do now days, none? A very sad situation.

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