Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-07-2023

If we trust these documents, as of March1 Ukraine had no operational HAWK missiles.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-07-2023

(04-07-2023, 01:59 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  If we trust these documents, as of March1 Ukraine had no operational HAWK missiles.

I have no information that contradicts this. It may be the HAWKs were in too bad shape to use and the idea was quietly dropped. For now, I am going to assume the situation is bad but not as dire as the numbers in these documents indicate. It may (hopefully) be like the reports the Russians are running out of cruise missiles. I can't believe the Ukrainians would let it get to this point and not be screaming to high heaven for some alternatives.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-07-2023

Really interesting bits in these documents.

I wonder what "FrankenSAM" is, perhaps a western missile mated to a Ukrainian launcher as had been mooted for RIM7 Sea Sparrow and Buk, though that already seems to be accounted for in the docs.
Also apparently UK has 100 Buk missiles they are sending as well??? S300 systems will need to be replaced by Patriots as those don't seem to have ready replacements.

From these docs, as of March 1st it seems they still had to inspect the Hawk systems prior to delivery, but it looks like 250 missiles, and 5 systems planned from Spain. 2x Feb, 2x March, 1x April I think it says but I can't be certain. 

There does seem like a lot of Western capability coming online, but the numbers of missiles and systems still low compared to the Soviet stuff.

This has 12 expected Patriot systems with ~200 missiles online by end of April.

NASAMS looks like 9 launchers. Hard to tell the missile count but looks like several hundred. AIM120s should be available, but only 9 launchers is a limiting factor.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-08-2023

More from NYT on the leaked documents

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/us/politics/leaked-documents-russia-ukraine-war.html

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 04-08-2023

Good news on the Rosomak APC/IFV. Per Zelenskyy they are getting 100 now from stocks and 100 in the future.

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Also interesting reports from the leaked documents regarding Russian force deployment. 
 
https://twitter.com/defmon3/status/1644496904712069126?s=46&t=W0Hzp0vT12iTCCZ3SP6dPw

If true, this would suggest that there are relatively fewer Russians in the southern fronts then I would have expected. Of course there is more to defense then numbers and the south has more natural barriers, but still makes the Zaporizhzia axis seem relatively more vulnerable

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 04-10-2023

Russians are digging a 45 mile long trench across Zaporizhzhia as a defensive tactic. It is almost 50 miles behind the existing front line.

Putin's 45-mile-long 'mega trench': Russian troops dig brobdingnagian defensive fortification | Daily Mail Online

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-10-2023

https://www.yahoo.com/news/latest-leaked-documents-different-past-115554708.html

The "leak" could have many sources. It is even possible (though unlikely) its came from Ukraine itself and contains both real information and fiction. However, it seems one thing is absolutely clear. The US continues to ignore "need to know" restrictions on information, and that has every chance of creating disasters. The information in these documents doesn't need to be shared with very many people. While certain parts could possibly require distribution to "specialists" that would widen the set of those who have seen this information, those sets should be pretty disjoint. IMO there are probably no more than 50 people in the US military that have a "need to know" for all the leaked information. It should be very easy to locate the "leak" under those circumstances. Even if persons have been briefed in and allowed to read such documents, they in general have no need to posses their own copy. They can't leak a document they don't posses.

The problem is that since information is power, everybody wants to posses it. It takes discipline and a real security plan to ensure people aren't given access just because of who they are and because they want to feel good about themselves. In the somewhat distant past, that policy was pretty widely enforced. After about 1990, the "need to know" justification definitely started to erode. That is going to cost lots of lives and treasure eventually, if it hasn't already. The lack of security process and access control based on "need to know" in both the legislative and executive branches of government has been on display for all to see recently. Unfortunately, that is only the tip of an iceberg. It also permeates the military.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-10-2023

The really infuriating thing is this doesn't appear to be a Russian op or anything like that.

Some idiot, or maybe some idiot's kid who raided dad's desk, caused one of the biggest intelligence scandals in modern US history, seemingly to win some points with anonymous internet friends. Bizarre and pathetic.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 04-11-2023

Someone's whose dad is interested miniatures and bowhunting/target archery...
[tweet]https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1645491582035009539[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 04-11-2023

(04-11-2023, 12:38 AM)fullmetal Wrote:  Someone's whose dad is interested miniatures and bowhunting/target archery...
[tweet]https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1645491582035009539[/tweet]

My guess is they will figure out whose desk that was and then we will see what happens.  Once there were stringent rules on Need to Know and handling and storage of highly classified documents.  I don't think those rules have changed, but power is everything in D.C. and access to highly classified information is a badge of power.  Want to Know is more important than Need to Know and the powers that be can get very careless handling sensitive information.  They have no regard for the impact that the disclosure of highly sensitive information can have on others.  It can be and has been the cause of needless deaths.  This kind of thing really bothers me, even today, many years after it makes any difference to me personally.  Loose lips Sink Ships as the poster said, and loose lips could get you killed.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-11-2023

(04-11-2023, 02:50 AM)GK3 Wrote:  My guess is they will figure out whose desk that was and then we will see what happens.  Once there were stringent rules on Need to Know and handling and storage of highly classified documents.  I don't think those rules have changed,

They have not.

Quote:but power is everything in D.C. and access to highly classified information is a badge of power.  Want to Know is more important than Need to Know and the powers that be can get very careless handling sensitive information.

The rules are only as good as those who enforce them. One problem is the security people have lost the will/power to say no. Security is just not taken seriously by many organizations that used to be quite strict. Another problem is that granting access has been used to generate support for policies desired by the military/intelligence organizations. The latter is endemic and a slow-motion catastrophe. It is possibly justified to communicate relevant data to obtain needed support. Arguably, those people have a "need to know". However, they don't have a need to possess the documents themselves and they certainly don't have a need to know or hold information about collection methods or sources. Copies are made and distributed without numbering and transfer signatures to persons who have no independent security apparatus that oversees the handling of such documents. Simply can't be allowed to happen.

Quote:They have no regard for the impact that the disclosure of highly sensitive information can have on others.  It can be and has been the cause of needless deaths.  This kind of thing really bothers me, even today, many years after it makes any difference to me personally.  Loose lips Sink Ships as the poster said, and loose lips could get you killed.

Amen.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 04-11-2023

I have no idea whether the background of the desk is real or not, but if you had legitimate access to such documents, don't you think you'd know if that desk was yours or someone around you?  Don't you think you'd have gone to a lawyer and then turned yourself in, assuming you had legitimate access to such documents?

I doubt it was some kid of a parent who improperly removed such documents to home.  I'd be thinking about cleaning, security, or maintenance (IT, copiers, plumbing, ...) staff (or, more likely, contract workers) at some facility where some staff had access but failed to properly secure the documents when not physically with them.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-11-2023

The leak was unfortunate, but this is now a good time to re-evaluate. That spring offensive is doomed and Ukraine should scrap it. NATO needs to deliver a lot more to give Ukraine a fair shot at retaking a substantial additional chunk of territory. Do it and then attack in September.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-11-2023

Uhhhh wut? On what basis is the spring offensive doomed? And why would it be better in September?

Pretty much all of Ukraine's western maneuver equipment like the MBTs and Bradleys, has not even been used in battle yet. Ukraine has substantial reserves training for this use. And if we accept that Ukrainian air defenses are being stretched thin and may run out soon, even more motivation to do your offensive while you can still deny airspace over your massed troops.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-11-2023

(1) Lack of ammunition and air defenses plus the leaked assessment from the US that the offensive is unlikely to result in Ukraine regaining substantial territory. 

(2) Hopefully NATO will provide the aforementioned ammunition and air defense supplies before September so that Ukraine can proceed with the offensive before the rainy season stalls any progress.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 04-11-2023

(04-11-2023, 08:54 AM)Goose Wrote:  [quote="GK3" pid='388001' dateline='1681206649']
My guess is they will figure out whose desk that was and then we will see what happens.  Once there were stringent rules on Need to Know and handling and storage of highly classified documents.  I don't think those rules have changed,

They have not.

Quote:but power is everything in D.C. and access to highly classified information is a badge of power.  Want to Know is more important than Need to Know and the powers that be can get very careless handling sensitive information.

The rules are only as good as those who enforce them. One problem is the security people have lost the will/power to say no. Security is just not taken seriously by many organizations that used to be quite strict. Another problem is that granting access has been used to generate support for policies desired by the military/intelligence organizations. The latter is endemic and a slow-motion catastrophe. It is possibly justified to communicate relevant data to obtain needed support. Arguably, those people have a "need to know". However, they don't have a need to possess the documents themselves and they certainly don't have a need to know or hold information about collection methods or sources. Copies are made and distributed without numbering and transfer signatures to persons who have no independent security apparatus that oversees the handling of such documents. Simply can't be allowed to happen.

Quote:They have no regard for the impact that the disclosure of highly sensitive information can have on others.  It can be and has been the cause of needless deaths.  This kind of thing really bothers me, even today, many years after it makes any difference to me personally.  Loose lips Sink Ships as the poster said, and loose lips could get you killed.

Amen.

Can't agree more

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-11-2023

(04-11-2023, 01:27 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  (1) Lack of ammunition and air defenses plus the leaked assessment from the US that the offensive is unlikely to result in Ukraine regaining substantial territory. 

(2) Hopefully NATO will provide the aforementioned ammunition and air defense supplies before September so that Ukraine can proceed with the offensive before the rainy season stalls any progress.

"The spring offensive is doomed" is pretty strong language, and not an assessment that seems to be shared by any of the analysts who have been best informed on the conflict thus far.

I guess we'll find out soon. Ukraine for sure is not going to wait until September.

I haven't seen anything from the leaks that indicates a spring offensive is doomed. Can you link to something? And let's keep in mind US assessments of Ukrainian capability have been wrong before.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 04-11-2023

The fact that the late 2019 SCIF breach didn't result in appropriate consequences to those involved makes a mockery of the (much-needed) rules and secrecy.  Tenured/career military and civilian staff have been fired/discharged/terminated for much less.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 04-11-2023

(04-11-2023, 02:17 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  The fact that the late 2019 SCIF breach didn't result in appropriate consequences to those involved makes a mockery of the (much-needed) rules and secrecy.  Tenured/career military and civilian staff have been fired/discharged/terminated for much less.

Back in the day you might well have become a guest at Ft Leavenworth, and I don't mean the Command and General Staff College.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-11-2023

My original comment was hyperbole. Unlikely to result in substantial gains I think is the actual language.

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