Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-31-2022

I agree with Dabigv’s urge for caution.  There are lots of variables that we don’t know about.  My best guess is that while Ukraine will be able to recapture many of the areas where Russia over-extended itself, in areas in the East of Ukraine, where Russia can dig in and resupply more easily, we may wind up with both sides digging in and neither side able to gain a decisive advantage.  In the best case scenario, that leads to a cease fire and frozen conflict; in the worst case scenario, it is a prolonged hot conflict where Russia continues to pound Ukraine, destroying anything it can reach with artillery.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 03-31-2022

Ya, I don't really understand why Russia should be given the benefit of any doubt. They had pictures of the ant-aircraft system at a market to prove it was bombed because it was a military target. OK, maybe, but why should we believe this? And at the end of the day, the fact it would have been needed there was only for defense of an illegal invasion of their country. So somehow there was justification for taking out the market when Russia shows there was AA there? What? I guess Ukraine should have just laid down all its weapons and surrendered and nobody would have been hurt, right?  Ugh...

I live my life this way.  I trust everyone when first hearing or dealing with someone. Once they establish that they can't be trusted, I have nothing to do with them and certainly don't believe anything they say henceforth.

Russia is built on a culture of lying. Nothing Putin says should be taken as truth. Nothing. It may be that Russia does tell the truth some times - in fact one element of its propaganda is to always include *some truth* - but not being believed is the price of being so dishonest. Want to be believed and trusted? Start telling the truth.

Putin has broken agreements with impunity. He also said Russia wasn't going to invade Ukraine.  So no, I'm not going to listen to their side.  I'm not going give the benefit of the doubt to or trust Russia on anything. Hell, the day Russia announced it was going to reduce its actions to enable peace talks, it fired more artillery than the previous week.  

I'm not going to pretend Ukraine doesn't do its own information operations. I'm just much more inclined to believe Ukraine given the behavior it has exhibited, its resilience, and its humanity... liquidating invading Russian soldiers notwithstanding.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BigJohn043 - 03-31-2022

(03-31-2022, 03:19 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Ya, I don't really understand why Russia should be given the benefit of any doubt. They had pictures of the ant-aircraft system at a market to prove it was bombed because it was a military target. OK, maybe, but why should we believe this? And at the end of the day, the fact it would have been needed there was only for defense of an illegal invasion of their country. So somehow there was justification for taking out the market when Russia shows there was AA there? What? I guess Ukraine should have just laid down all its weapons and surrendered and nobody would have been hurt, right?  Ugh...

I live my life this way.  I trust everyone when first hearing or dealing with someone. Once they establish that they can't be trusted, I have nothing to do with them and certainly don't believe anything they say henceforth.

Russia is built on a culture of lying. Nothing Putin says should be taken as truth. Nothing. It may be that Russia does tell the truth some times - in fact one element of its propaganda is to always include *some truth* - but not being believed is the price of being so dishonest. Want to be believed and trusted? Start telling the truth.

Putin has broken agreements with impunity. He also said Russia wasn't going to invade Ukraine.  So no, I'm not going to listen to their side.  I'm not going give the benefit of the doubt to or trust Russia on anything. Hell, the day Russia announced it was going to reduce its actions to enable peace talks, it fired more artillery than the previous week.  

I'm not going to pretend Ukraine doesn't do its own information operations. I'm just much more inclined to believe Ukraine given the behavior it has exhibited, its resilience, and its humanity... liquidating invading Russian soldiers notwithstanding.

Of course Putin is a monster and what Russia is doing here is horrific.

But you are also right that UKR is running a propaganda campaign.  I don't blame them at all.  They need Western support to survive and if they didn't run a propaganda campaign they wouldn't be doing their job.  FWIW, IMO the line "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition" may be the single greatest statement ever by a war time leader.  Churchillian, but sharper and to the point.

I guess I just want to understand reality.  I am not just going to buy the line from UKR hook line and a sinker.  It is not at all clear to me that Russia is targeting civilians.  The whole invasion is horrific, but I like to think through each claim.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-31-2022

(03-31-2022, 07:40 PM)BigJohn043 Wrote:  

(03-31-2022, 03:19 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Ya, I don't really understand why Russia should be given the benefit of any doubt. They had pictures of the ant-aircraft system at a market to prove it was bombed because it was a military target. OK, maybe, but why should we believe this? And at the end of the day, the fact it would have been needed there was only for defense of an illegal invasion of their country. So somehow there was justification for taking out the market when Russia shows there was AA there? What? I guess Ukraine should have just laid down all its weapons and surrendered and nobody would have been hurt, right?  Ugh...

I live my life this way.  I trust everyone when first hearing or dealing with someone. Once they establish that they can't be trusted, I have nothing to do with them and certainly don't believe anything they say henceforth.

Russia is built on a culture of lying. Nothing Putin says should be taken as truth. Nothing. It may be that Russia does tell the truth some times - in fact one element of its propaganda is to always include *some truth* - but not being believed is the price of being so dishonest. Want to be believed and trusted? Start telling the truth.

Putin has broken agreements with impunity. He also said Russia wasn't going to invade Ukraine.  So no, I'm not going to listen to their side.  I'm not going give the benefit of the doubt to or trust Russia on anything. Hell, the day Russia announced it was going to reduce its actions to enable peace talks, it fired more artillery than the previous week.  

I'm not going to pretend Ukraine doesn't do its own information operations. I'm just much more inclined to believe Ukraine given the behavior it has exhibited, its resilience, and its humanity... liquidating invading Russian soldiers notwithstanding.

Of course Putin is a monster and what Russia is doing here is horrific.

But you are also right that UKR is running a propaganda campaign.  I don't blame them at all.  They need Western support to survive and if they didn't run a propaganda campaign they wouldn't be doing their job.  FWIW, IMO the line "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition" may be the single greatest statement ever by a war time leader.  Churchillian, but sharper and to the point.

I guess I just want to understand reality.  I am not just going to buy the line from UKR hook line and a sinker.  It is not at all clear to me that Russia is targeting civilians.  The whole invasion is horrific, but I like to think through each claim.

Sherman was correct, I'm afraid. "War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it". Looking at it from the philosophical point of view, since this is not a "just war" on Russia's part, each and every thing Russia does is a war crime. That aside, laying siege to a city always has and always will kill civilians. Even the US, which in recent years has gone to great lengths to avoid "collateral damage", kills civilians. I fully believe Russia pays little or no heed to how many civilians it kills as long as it has some kind of vague justification. They were "misinformed" about the theater. From the Russian point of view, civilian casualties are all caused by the Ukraine not surrendering their cites. Not their fault. While I do believe there are degrees of responsibility for civilian casualties in war, it is degrees. Dresden was bombed to destroy the railroad marshaling yards. Right.
There are rules of "right conduct" that in many cases Russia clearly has violated and killed many more civilians than "was necessary". There are many, many more cases that are progressively much less clear. Attempting to refine the cruelty will, in the main, not succeed IMHO. That is why we need to have no wars.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Leftcoast - 03-31-2022

Hiroshima and Nagasaki

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 04-01-2022

Reports are that Australia will also provide Ukraine with light armored vehicles, and Germany has agreed to send BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles. On the latter, I've seen reports that they are allowing Czechia to do so, so I'm not sure if it's Germany providing the armor, Czechia, or both.  It does seem like the West (and allies) are ramping up their provisions, I'm not sure if this was because they were initially afraid of escalating tensions with Russia, or because they thought Ukraine wouldn't put up such a fight, but maybe it's both.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-01-2022

This is insane- Ukrainian HELICOPTERS blowing up an oil depot in Belgorod, Russia!

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1509763703901761556?s=20&t=jFL58GkjwmIuPesFdar2YQ[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1509764935567519756?s=20&t=jFL58GkjwmIuPesFdar2YQ[/tweet]

Incredible failure of Russian air defenses, and absolutely massive balls on the Ukrainian helo pilots. Also absolute failure on Russia's part that Ukraine still has functional helicopters! Crazy, crazy stuff. Did Russia send all their air defense systems into Ukraine? Did Ukraine somehow take Russian IFF transponders off of crashed Russian helos? However this happened, it is badass.

This is an episode I want to hear more about. Same with the sinking of the Russian ship in Berdyansk.

More on Russian morale failure (don't sub to FT so can't read the article)

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1509768910815604746?s=20&t=jFL58GkjwmIuPesFdar2YQ[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BigJohn043 - 04-01-2022

Big news the last couple of days....

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1509862876433235972?s=20&t=3Rg2g44DakbBBGxK9YxjNA[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1509738284448382981?s=20&t=3Rg2g44DakbBBGxK9YxjNA[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-01-2022

(04-01-2022, 07:34 AM)BigJohn043 Wrote:  Big news the last couple of days....

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1509862876433235972?s=20&t=3Rg2g44DakbBBGxK9YxjNA

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1509738284448382981?s=20&t=3Rg2g44DakbBBGxK9YxjNA

This is indeed big news, even if it is just a "small sample". It appears Russia can't even organize a retreat (one where they are not being closely pressed by the enemy). One other important fact to consider. The troops who are retreating to a "safe place" might be very reluctant to go back into harm's way. Hopefully this is the start of a complete morale collapse by the Russian army. In all armies, there are some instances of units that collapse, especially at the beginning of hostilities when "bad" leaders are still present. However, if such collapses become common, the army can't fight. Nobody trusts the guys next to them.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 04-01-2022

Before y'all wake the woofing gods, just want to say I know people in Vinnytsia who said there were air raid sirens LAST NIGHT. 

So Russian forces may be being pushed back in some places, deserting, or surrendering themselves and equipment, but missiles and aircraft are still being used to indiscriminately bomb towns inside Ukraine.

But I LOVE the fact Ukraine is hitting targets inside Russia now. Been waiting for that since this nonsense started in February.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-01-2022

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1509880265442746374?s=20&t=hkbNS4znQzA4jz1MIUwIWw[/tweet]

LOL.

On the one hand, this is badass. On the other hand, if you're NATO you have to figure if you give these guys F15s and F16s they might just try and blow up the Kremlin. And they might succeed.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-01-2022

(04-01-2022, 08:02 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  But I LOVE the fact Ukraine is hitting targets inside Russia now. Been waiting for that since this nonsense started in February.

I think Ukraine has not been hitting targets inside Russia for two reasons. On reason is that they didn't want to give Russian TV the pictures of Russians being killed on Russian soil by Ukrainians. That could help Putin in his "kill the Nazis" campaign. This is always going to be a bit of a balancing act.
The other, more important reason is that the Ukraine has very limited capability to project power at a distance. Flying two attack Helicopters across the border is very risky and probably not repeatable. They had to design a route very carefully. The fact Ukraine and Russia use the same helicopters obviously is key to this recent effort. Ukraine needs many more decent in-depth weapons to effectively disrupt Russian forces in their "safe haven".

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-01-2022

(04-01-2022, 08:21 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  [Tweet]https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1509880265442746374?s=20&t=hkbNS4znQzA4jz1MIUwIWw[/tweet]

LOL.

On the one hand, this is badass. On the other hand, if you're NATO you have to figure if you give these guys F15s and F16s they might just try and blow up the Kremlin. And they might succeed.

Isn’t this logic in reverse?  NATO refused MiGs because it already knew that Ukraine would attack if given the chance, and Ukraine staged this attack because it already observed that NATO is unwilling to provide lethal aid that Ukraine could use offensively. Just speculation, but it would make sense.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-01-2022

Ukraine reportedly blew up a fuel depot *in Russian territory* 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-strikes-russian-military-depot-russians-say-11648804107

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-01-2022

(04-01-2022, 07:34 AM)BigJohn043 Wrote:  Big news the last couple of days....

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1509862876433235972?s=20&t=3Rg2g44DakbBBGxK9YxjNA

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1509738284448382981?s=20&t=3Rg2g44DakbBBGxK9YxjNA

Russia can't or won't entrench positions they have held since the first days of the war. Does not bode well for their ability to make any more meaningful progress in Donbas if they can't even tie down some Ukrainian forces in North or adequately cover a retreat with air power.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1509874252387962884?s=20&t=aFfYXDiU-PYZElLbk2Hokg[/tweet]

Soviet era former East German IFVs that Ukraine would have familiarity with. The publicly acknowledged arms shipments keep getting ramped up.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - old spanish trail - 04-01-2022

(04-01-2022, 09:58 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  

(04-01-2022, 07:34 AM)BigJohn043 Wrote:  Big news the last couple of days....

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1509862876433235972?s=20&t=3Rg2g44DakbBBGxK9YxjNA

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1509738284448382981?s=20&t=3Rg2g44DakbBBGxK9YxjNA

Russia can't or won't entrench positions they have held since the first days of the war. Does not bode well for their ability to make any more meaningful progress in Donbas if they can't even tie down some Ukrainian forces in North or adequately cover a retreat with air power.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1509874252387962884?s=20&t=aFfYXDiU-PYZElLbk2Hokg[/tweet]

Soviet era former East German IFVs that Ukraine would have familiarity with. The publicly acknowledged arms shipments keep getting ramped up.

This.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Softball Fan - 04-01-2022

Thanks for the report on these PbV-501 tanks.  I’m enjoying the contributions to this thread although I’m very much in the minority here on what weapons are needed by Ukraine.

These tanks were originally made back in the 1970s in the former Soviet Union.  They were handed over to Germany who sold them to Sweden who sold them to a Czech company.   They need to be refurbished and will more likely be cannibalized for spare parts.   


This is what has me puzzled about the U. S. lack of support with modern technology.  Having worked in this area for three decades I’m familiar with weapons programs developed in the U.S. in the last ten years for close quarters, city fighting.  They are ideal for this type of war and many are fairly easy to learn how to use.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-01-2022

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/45018/just-pick-a-fighter-to-start-training-ukrainian-pilots-on-now

I thought this was a good article on possible 4th generation fighter options the west could provide, and I agree that this training should be started ASAP.

It seems much of the Ukrainian military operates in a very decentralized manner, and getting them equipment they don't have experience with or that would require more than minimal training may not make a big impact. But there are US troops training with Ukrainian ones in Poland per POTUS, so perhaps some of this work is ongoing, with what manpower Ukraine can spare for training purposes.

The incrementally increasing level of equipment we are supplying will probably continue to progress, I imagine unless/until Russia demonstrates they can escalate in a way that deters it. Maybe a missile strike on supplies in NATO territory or a demonstration tactical nuke.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - thatboy - 04-01-2022

(03-31-2022, 07:40 PM)BigJohn043 Wrote:  FWIW, IMO the line "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition" may be the single greatest statement ever by a war time leader.  Churchillian, but sharper and to the point.

My favorite line for a non-leader was by an old woman in Russia about a week ago:  "A country in which the closure of McDonalds is considered to be a tragedy while the loss of freedom means nothing, has no future".

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 04-01-2022

Early report from @sentdefender on twitter, but the US might be working with NATO allies that have Soviet T-72 tanks to Ukraine from Poland, in exchange the US would replace Poland's tanks with more modern versions.  This is the first I'm seeing of actual tanks potentially being provided to Ukraine, and I think that would be brobdingnagian for them, given they are now on the offensive in a lot of areas.  That being said, this could be the MiG-29 saga all over again, so who knows.  Then again, are we really being told everything that has actually been provided?  I do wonder if we only get the tip of the iceberg when it comes to military aid.  One thing I do know is that Russia has already lost 2,278 pieces of equipment according to https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html and he says he has a backlog of up to 200 more he hasn't gotten to yet.  I'm sure we will see lots more in the coming days, as the Ukrainians clear out the greater Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv regions.  Also still hoping for an assault on Kherson, they continue to push closer there as well.

Quick Edit: I guess the New York Times and other sources also reported on this, so it probably has some legs.

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