Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-12-2023

per NPR news, the Russian offensive in Bakhmut has stalled, though I find that hard to believe.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 03-12-2023

Good article from the Economist on a critical phase of the war- the Ukrainian energy grid response, and missile defense, from Russian missile attacks.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/12/how-ukraine-tamed-russian-missile-barrages-and-kept-the-lights-on

Quote:Russia was already a month into its campaign to bomb Ukraine’s energy infrastructure campaign when the man in charge of Ukraine’s power grid, Volodymyr Kudrytsky, saw a fleet of kamikaze drones headed towards his office. The attack on October 17th at Ukrenergo’s Kyiv headquarters sent many of his colleagues screaming and running for the shelters. Others stayed above ground to try to shoot down the drones. But Mr Kudrytsky headed off to move parked cars to safer spaces. “Some of us have experienced five, ten, twenty attacks over this winter and at one point you cease being frightened,” he recalls. “We’ve learned to be calm while everyone else is losing their minds.”

The latest rocket attack, in the early hours of March 9th, saw Russia target hundreds of millions of dollars-worth of missiles on critical infrastructure. It tested the tenacity of energy planners for the 15th time this winter. But with most of the country swiftly brought back on line, it did not change the fundamentals; Ukraine is still winning a historical battle in which few had expected it to prevail. Engineers are now repairing the system faster than it can be destroyed. Prior to the latest attack, Kyiv had enjoyed four consecutive weeks with no outages. The use by Russia of hard-to-replace Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles at the end of winter would appear to indicate increasing desperation in Moscow.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-13-2023

[tweet]https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1635413746679160832[/tweet]

What a waste.  Saw All Quiet on the Western Front last week and I couldn't stop thinking about the Russian invasion of Ukraine and how pointless it all is.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Hurlburt88 - 03-14-2023

Some rather sobering anecdotes here https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-short-of-skilled-troops-and-munitions-as-losses-pessimism-grow/ar-AA18A8xm?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=c54707eece8c458f906be6ab823b15d2&ei=34

I also read an article this morning about Russia's long-term efforts to "fully integrate" Byelorussia (Belarus).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 03-14-2023

What do y'all think will be the payback for Russia downing a U.S. surveillance drone in international waters of the Black Sea?

Does Russia apologize? Will the U.S. give something to Turkey to allow USN ships (maybe even carrier strike group) into the Black Sea? Anything in between?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-14-2023

Probably nothing beyond reaching out to Russia to "express disapproval".  It was a "juvenile but accidental" event.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-jet-collides-with-u-s-drone-over-black-sea-7ae82d2f?mod=djemwhatsnews

The drone was brought down by the US, which I take it to mean that it was recovered, not that it was destroyed.

Maybe next time, if we can't shoot the Russian Su, we can have a little fun with him?

https://youtu.be/FcVJPewefcA?t=143

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-14-2023

(03-14-2023, 03:21 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Probably nothing beyond reaching out to Russia to "express disapproval".  It was a "juvenile but accidental" event.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-jet-collides-with-u-s-drone-over-black-sea-7ae82d2f?mod=djemwhatsnews

The drone was brought down by the US, which I take it to mean that it was recovered, not that it was destroyed.

The US crashed the drone into the Black Sea. It was not recovered, and was hopefully destroyed. I hope the comms link had an auto-destruct charge available and it worked. If not, this incident could cost the US a whole lot of time and money. Due to the Montreux Convention being enforced, I would imagine the US cannot dispatch a recovery operation for whatever remains of the MQ-9. Russia is not constrained against recovering the wreckage.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-14-2023

Read too fast and missed this paragraph:

Quote:The U.S. hasn’t recovered the wreckage and officials declined to discuss any operations to recover it. The U.S. no longer sails its ships in the Black Sea, following a Turkish prohibition on warships imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 03-14-2023

(03-14-2023, 04:02 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Read too fast and missed this paragraph:

Quote:The U.S. hasn’t recovered the wreckage and officials declined to discuss any operations to recover it. The U.S. no longer sails its ships in the Black Sea, following a Turkish prohibition on warships imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.

BC

I have seen multiple reports in last 24 hours that Russian forces are facing severe shortages of ammunition of many types.  Also a report that they have now lost more men in Ukraine than any other conflict since WWII.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-15-2023

(03-14-2023, 10:11 PM)GK3 Wrote:  I have seen multiple reports in last 24 hours that Russian forces are facing severe shortages of ammunition of many types.

The fact Russia has been using lots less artillery is undisputed. There are also anecdotal reports of troops advancing without small arms. I think it is prudent to assume that Russia is withholding ammunition as opposed to they don't have it. It is entirely possible they have been scraping the bottom of the barrel and are becoming concerned about a Ukrainian offensive(s). The Russian military is at least professional enough to know you don't want to be without ammunition and over-extended. The Ukrainians have pointed out that Russia is now moving ammunition from lots farther east than before. It may impose "supply chain" restrictions on their usage and require much longer resupply intervals.

For better or worse, Ukraine has been openly touting their upcoming "spring offensive". It is now probably imperative that they have one, at least for their own political credibility. Russia may be settling down to "play defense" for a while, willingly or by necessity. Kursk comes to mind in that regard. I expect we shall see, but I hope Ukraine operates on their timetable, not Russia's or NATO's. They have been training lots of troops both inside and outside of Ukraine. This has undoubtedly put heavy stress on the units who have been doing the fighting to make this possible. It may be they get only one chance at this, as a notable failure will fuel opinion in "the West" that Ukraine is doomed. Timing is important. If Russia is "temporarily" short of ammunition, Ukraine undoubtedly wants to take advantage. OTOH, they don't want to go off at "half-cocked". Hopefully Ukraine knows the actual situation.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 03-15-2023

(03-15-2023, 05:34 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(03-14-2023, 10:11 PM)GK3 Wrote:  I have seen multiple reports in last 24 hours that Russian forces are facing severe shortages of ammunition of many types.

The fact Russia has been using lots less artillery is undisputed. There are also anecdotal reports of troops advancing without small arms. I think it is prudent to assume that Russia is withholding ammunition as opposed to they don't have it. It is entirely possible they have been scraping the bottom of the barrel and are becoming concerned about a Ukrainian offensive(s). The Russian military is at least professional enough to know you don't want to be without ammunition and over-extended. The Ukrainians have pointed out that Russia is now moving ammunition from lots farther east than before. It may impose "supply chain" restrictions on their usage and require much longer resupply intervals.

For better or worse, Ukraine has been openly touting their upcoming "spring offensive". It is now probably imperative that they have one, at least for their own political credibility. Russia may be settling down to "play defense" for a while, willingly or by necessity. Kursk comes to mind in that regard. I expect we shall see, but I hope Ukraine operates on their timetable, not Russia's or NATO's. They have been training lots of troops both inside and outside of Ukraine. This has undoubtedly put heavy stress on the units who have been doing the fighting to make this possible. It may be they get only one chance at this, as a notable failure will fuel opinion in "the West" that Ukraine is doomed. Timing is important. If Russia is "temporarily" short of ammunition, Ukraine undoubtedly wants to take advantage. OTOH, they don't want to go off at "half-cocked". Hopefully Ukraine knows the actual situation.

From the news it appears that Poland is willing to give its Mig-29s to Ukraine in the coming weeks.  I presume they would then be saved to support future offensive operations.  Since they belonged to Poland, could they have been modified to allow use of our JDAMs?  I read somewhere that all or some of Poland's Migs were modified to use them.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 03-15-2023

Re: Reaper recovery

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1636075807826235393?s=20[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 03-15-2023

(03-15-2023, 03:34 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Re: Reaper recovery
https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1636075807826235393?s=20

I wonder whether treaties prevent surveillance drones from having some sort of shrapnel explosive device to "self destruct" (on command) when another aircraft comes close enough for the shrapnel to be effective.   I guess if there were such treaties, it would prohibit drones from doing the kinds of things Russia is doing with them.

It wouldn't prevent an aircraft from shooting down a drone, but it might be a big surprise to a Russian pilot once.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-15-2023

(03-15-2023, 03:54 PM)M T Wrote:  

(03-15-2023, 03:34 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Re: Reaper recovery
https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1636075807826235393?s=20

I wonder whether treaties prevent surveillance drones from having some sort of shrapnel explosive device to "self destruct" (on command) when another aircraft comes close enough for the shrapnel to be effective.   I guess if there were such treaties, it would prohibit drones from doing the kinds of things Russia is doing with them.

It wouldn't prevent an aircraft from shooting down a drone, but it might be a big surprise to a Russian pilot once.

It is a given that all drones have a severe weight and size budget. Adding an explosive with adequate killing power on the off chance you could blow up a Russian fighter that got too close is just not at all worth it.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 03-15-2023

[Most of these references are from Ukrainian news, so keep that in mind.]

There are reports & a video today purportedly showing a SU-24 crashing & a parachute near Bakhmut, with credit given to a Ukrainian unit.
It appears to be the same SU-24 mentioned in this article.
(Could this be the aircraft reported killed on Mar. 9, apparently the most recent claim by Ukraine.)


As for the attack on the drone, I suspect the surveillance and the attack were related to a reported increase in Russian vessels in the Black Sea.

On March 10, FT reported Ukraine had received one of two Patriot systems but had not put it into use.  The missile attacks of March 9 were perhaps intended to find the Patriot system.


The final 10 of 14 Leopard tanks were transferred to Ukraine from Poland.  Crews were trained in Poland.  "In addition to 14 Polish Leopard tanks, this battalion also includes 4 tanks from Canada, 8 tanks from Norway, and 6 from Spain," the Minister noted.  ... He added that he is negotiating with his Spanish colleague Margarita Robles regarding the possible provision of more tanks to Ukraine - "perhaps 4 more".  "

Russia is reportedly intending to "recruit" 400K more into the military.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 03-15-2023

Here's video of the Bakhmut shootdown from today. No footage of impact, but there is footage of the Ukrainian soldiers taking the shot, and then footage of crash and it looks like the Wagner pilots parachute maybe catches in a tree.

The soldier initially demos an Igla MANPADS to the camera, but when he takes the shot it's with a Stinger.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1636121410220204036?s=20[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 03-15-2023

(03-15-2023, 05:23 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  it looks like the Wagner pilots parachute maybe catches in a tree.

The SU-24 apparently has a crew of two.  I saw only one parachute.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 03-15-2023

Looks like it was a very low altitude intercept. Perhaps one didn't have time to get out. Or it wasn't an Su-24. Elsewhere saw a guess the plane was an Su25, which would be a single seater, and much more common than an Su24.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 03-15-2023

Reaper viewed from cockpit of an Su27. Unclear if this short clip shows the Reaper or Su27 involved in the crash yesterday.

Supposedly the US is going to declassify their own footage of the incident from the drone's camera though it has not been released yet.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Capt_Navy/status/1635939047376863232?s=20[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 03-15-2023

It appears that video was clipped from this
video

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