Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-01-2023

(03-01-2023, 08:39 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  More on

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/01/world/europe/ukraine-russia-tanks.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20230301&instance_id=86568&nl=the-morning&regi_id=112348342&segment_id=126574&te=1&user_id=ceb8dc75e6018f57e5d7fc74f24220a2

Quote: In the extended battle, both sides sent tanks into the fray, rumbling over dirt roads and maneuvering around tree lines, with the Russians thrusting forward in columns and the Ukrainians maneuvering defensively, firing from a distance or from hiding places as Russian columns came into their sights.

When it was over, not only had Russia failed to capture Vuhledar, but it also had made the same mistake that cost Moscow hundreds of tanks earlier in the war: advancing columns into ambushes.

What is stunning to me is that this is the kind of mistake you should never make twice.

BC

Let's be "fair" to the Russians. The Ukrainians did most of their damage by firing a minefield into an area the Russians had just cleared. Ukraine hadn't done that before and the Russian's didn't realize what was happening. The "ambush" wasn't mostly direct fire. The Russians kept hitting artillery laid mines, even while simply trying to flee.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/12/ukraines-new-anti-tank-tactic-lay-a-minefield-then-scatter-more-mines-from-the-air/?sh=1029a21655e3

Showing your enemy your armor to draw them onto your anti-tank defenses is an old German tactic. Instead of PAK-38s Ukraine used mines. The Russians cleared most of the "conventional" mines but had no answer for artillery laid mines. Unfortunately Ukraine has only 6000 of them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcano_mine_system

This isn't currently relevant to Ukraine, but it is one of my "all time favorite" systems. Since we have retired it, we probably have a lot of them available that could go to Ukraine. This "instant minefield" system is a great way to mess up an opponents carefully planned offensive. Best case for the opponent, he has to stop and clear the obstacle. If you defend it even minimally that will take lots of time. During that time, everybody else has to stop. That makes them extremely vulnerable to conventional indirect fires. The opponent doesn't know how big the minefield is. There could be another one 50 yards behind the first. Best case for the defense, the opponent runs blindly into an unexpected minefield and suffers heavy casualties of men and equipment. Everybody comes to a stop and nobody knows what to do. Indirect fire has a very good day with what remains.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-01-2023

Regarding the alleged Russian offensive and the ineffectiveness it has had so far:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/contingent-trained-russian-forces-military-153600802.html

Russia is bringing at least some of it's newly trained troops into the war. It is obviously unknown how "trained" they really are, but it certainly could make a positive difference in the Russian efforts. To put it in perspective, the article cites groups whose total is about 1600 men, over triple what the US has trained so far in Bavaria. Again, who know how "trained" these Russians really are. There are at least 8400 more to go.

IMO the idea that Russia is a "spent force" is inaccurate and dangerous to what Ukraine really needs to get from the US and NATO. Russia isn't done yet and thinking they are is not wise.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 03-01-2023

(02-28-2023, 05:53 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  

(02-28-2023, 04:54 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Bakhmut is hardly worth saving anymore given how destroyed it is. It's almost like Ukraine is only defending the territory because it is a meat grinder for Wagner (Russian) forces that it is happy to grind down.

This much has been clear for some time.  There is a slight psychological benefit to Russia from capturing Bakhmut, but Ukraine has been much better at "doing the math" about how long to bleed the Russians before withdrawing.  I think they will withdraw soon, but they've held out longer than I expected.

BC

I'm impressed that Ukraine has hung on in Bakhmut for so long, but I am not sure whose "math" to trust, and I don't have a good sense as to whether Ukraine still is benefitting from using Bakhmut as a spot for a defensive stand.  For example, the DefMon twitter account today expressed a hope that Ukraine's public statements about reinforcing the city are psyops meant to facilitate a withdrawal.  I don't have any particularly good information that others lack, but I am concerned that Ukraine may be losing soldiers without sufficient reward and that continuing this battle may allow Russia to encircle some of Ukraine's remaining troops.  Is there reason to think that Bakhmut is positioned like Popasna, such that a withdrawal by Ukraine would be a key event that would allow Russia to make significant territorial gains?  (I would hope that Ukraine has had time by now to prepare a strong second line of defense, as well as defense in depth.)

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1630994947783491605

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-01-2023

(03-01-2023, 03:41 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  

(02-28-2023, 05:53 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  

(02-28-2023, 04:54 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Bakhmut is hardly worth saving anymore given how destroyed it is. It's almost like Ukraine is only defending the territory because it is a meat grinder for Wagner (Russian) forces that it is happy to grind down.

This much has been clear for some time.  There is a slight psychological benefit to Russia from capturing Bakhmut, but Ukraine has been much better at "doing the math" about how long to bleed the Russians before withdrawing.  I think they will withdraw soon, but they've held out longer than I expected.

BC

I'm impressed that Ukraine has hung on in Bakhmut for so long, but I am not sure whose "math" to trust, and I don't have a good sense as to whether Ukraine still is benefitting from using Bakhmut as a spot for a defensive stand.  For example, the DefMon twitter account today expressed a hope that Ukraine's public statements about reinforcing the city are psyops meant to facilitate a withdrawal.  I don't have any particularly good information that others lack, but I am concerned that Ukraine may be losing soldiers without sufficient reward and that continuing this battle may allow Russia to encircle some of Ukraine's remaining troops.  Is there reason to think that Bakhmut is positioned like Popasna, such that a withdrawal by Ukraine would be a key event that would allow Russia to make significant territorial gains?  (I would hope that Ukraine has had time by now to prepare a strong second line of defense, as well as defense in depth.)

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1630994947783491605

I have no "inside information" but I am pretty sure that Ukraine is being careful. They aren't going to commit troops that they don't see adequate ROI for the risk involved. I think Bakhmut is a "gateway to nowhere", unlike Popasna. That said, a collapse anywhere along the line can be exploited by a well organized enemy that can move rapidly. Russia hasn't shown much ability to do that, although there is always a first time. Ukraine seems to be very well aware of the dangers and has been IMHO very conservative in their recent actions. Mud season is also starting, which will slow everybody down.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-01-2023

(03-01-2023, 03:41 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  I'm impressed that Ukraine has hung on in Bakhmut for so long, but I am not sure whose "math" to trust, and I don't have a good sense as to whether Ukraine still is benefitting from using Bakhmut as a spot for a defensive stand.  For example, the DefMon twitter account today expressed a hope that Ukraine's public statements about reinforcing the city are psyops meant to facilitate a withdrawal.  I don't have any particularly good information that others lack, but I am concerned that Ukraine may be losing soldiers without sufficient reward and that continuing this battle may allow Russia to encircle some of Ukraine's remaining troops.  Is there reason to think that Bakhmut is positioned like Popasna, such that a withdrawal by Ukraine would be a key event that would allow Russia to make significant territorial gains?  (I would hope that Ukraine has had time by now to prepare a strong second line of defense, as well as defense in depth.)

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1630994947783491605

So far, Ukrainians have not defended to futility, so I don't expect them to do so this time.  The strategic benefit to Bakhmut evaporated once the Ukranians drove the Russians back from Izyum, Kupyansk and Lyman.  Once upon a time, Russia had ambitions to encircle Ukrainian forces in a cauldron centered on Siversk (see this map):



This would have been in the service of capturing Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, which would have enabled Russia to control the rest of the Donetsk Oblast and therefore the entirety of the Donbas.  But of course, encircling the forces became impossible once Ukraine recaptured the territory north of the salient.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 81alum - 03-01-2023

(03-01-2023, 07:50 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  So far, Ukrainians have not defended to futility, so I don't expect them to do so this time.  

Perhaps Mariupol is an example of a defense that went on too long?  Depending on who you believe Ukraine lost around 1000 prisoners, with some eventually being returned.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-01-2023

(03-01-2023, 08:57 PM)81alum Wrote:  

(03-01-2023, 07:50 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  So far, Ukrainians have not defended to futility, so I don't expect them to do so this time.  

Perhaps Mariupol is an example of a defense that went on too long?  Depending on who you believe Ukraine lost around 1000 prisoners, with some eventually being returned.

Holding Mariupol that long kept the M14 closed and the Russian land bridge was therefore not operational. Even when the defenders were constricted into just the steel plant they had fire control of the road. The siege also occupied a disproportionate number of Russian assets.  Both effects were extremely important during that period because Russia couldn't shuttle troops and supplies from north to south when necessary. The defense had immense strategic implications. That is why Ukraine accepted the losses. They needed time to reorganize, refit, and recover from what was going on. Mariupol bought them that time. They knew full well the price and paid it. Bakhmut itself doesn't have any where near as much strategic significance.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-01-2023

Also, Ukraine eventually negotiated a surrender once the force dwindled to the point where it could no longer achieve its aims (fire control over the M14), and I believe Ukraine eventually was able to repatriate the defenders in a prisoner swap.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-01-2023

https://www.yahoo.com/news/spring-thaw-could-ukraine-distinct-171025455.html

Mud season is early this year. Good timing. I don't share the writers optimism that Ukraine will field a tank brigade by the end of March. They MIGHT have one that has some offensive capability by 1 May. I expect that, baring exigent circumstances, we won't see it in action until late May at the earliest. I expect Ukraine wants it to hit real hard when it is employed, and going before it is truly operationally capable risks a damp squib. They really don't want that to happen.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-02-2023

[tweet]https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1631208527460016128?s=61&t=uOULmTXhVLkcXRmnxXcClQ[/tweet]

Lol

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-02-2023

Ukraine is now clearly preparing to withdraw from Bakhmut, or at least establishing a line of defense behind what remains of the town. They won't go until/unless they must, but it appears probable that will happen soon.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 03-03-2023

Good article on various mechanisms Biden can use to continue funding Ukraine support in the event the House declines to bring new support legislation up for a vote, and the particular bureaucratic challenges each would present.

https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/u-s-security-assistance-to-ukraine-is-going-to-get-complicated/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 03-03-2023

(03-02-2023, 05:14 PM)Goose Wrote:  Ukraine is now clearly preparing to withdraw from Bakhmut, or at least establishing a line of defense behind what remains of the town. They won't go until/unless they must, but it appears probable that will happen soon.

I don't see consistent information about Ukraine's position in Bakhmut.  I assume Ukraine wants to maintain uncertainty about the exact timing of its withdrawal, so the fog of war will be real.  I did see an update from the Kyiv Independent that Russia hit a bridge on the main escape route from Bakhmut (to the west of the city) and an article from The New Voice of Ukraine that a particular unit was ordered to withdraw from Bakhmut.  So I assume your conclusion is correct in the big picture.  Nevertheless, the details are - and until the battle is over probably will remain - scarce.  I'm crossing my fingers that Ukraine's forces there will escape mostly intact.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-03-2023

(03-03-2023, 12:05 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  

(03-02-2023, 05:14 PM)Goose Wrote:  Ukraine is now clearly preparing to withdraw from Bakhmut, or at least establishing a line of defense behind what remains of the town. They won't go until/unless they must, but it appears probable that will happen soon.

I don't see consistent information about Ukraine's position in Bakhmut.  I assume Ukraine wants to maintain uncertainty about the exact timing of its withdrawal, so the fog of war will be real.  I did see an update from the Kyiv Independent that Russia hit a bridge on the main escape route from Bakhmut (to the west of the city) and an article from The New Voice of Ukraine that a particular unit was ordered to withdraw from Bakhmut.  So I assume your conclusion is correct in the big picture.  Nevertheless, the details are - and until the battle is over probably will remain - scarce.  I'm crossing my fingers that Ukraine's forces there will escape mostly intact.

Ukraine knows what it is doing and has a plan with many branch points. I have confidence they aren't going to get cut off, and if they are the evacuation routes will be re-opened long enough to get most everybody out. That said, Ukraine is suffering casualties too, and probably at a pretty high rate. Even if it is 3:1 Russian to Ukrainian, it is a lot of casualties. You can't fight like WW I and not have the same high casualty rates. Really a human disaster.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 03-03-2023

How can 1,000 soldiers surrounded at a single steel plant in Mariupol have sufficient fire control to prevent the Russians from traversing the entire southern region, while so many thousands of Russians attacking Bakhmut from every direction don’t have fire control over Ukraine’s escape routes?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 03-04-2023

I'm seeing reports of initial resistance uprisings in Russia, the kind of stuff that can spread very quickly. I'm not saying Russia will fall into a civil war, but it would be surprising to me if NATO intelligence agencies (CIA, MI6, BND, DGSE, etc.) aren't pushing the envelope on getting insurgencies against the Russian government going.

We don't really know what Putin's actual support level is. But it sure seems to me there is a very large and underreported number of Russians who don't support the government. And there are probably another healthy percentage of the population that will join a resistance if one can get going and have some success. I know nothing about how the Russian states and regions are organized, but it seems there could be some real destabilizing activities stirred up to kill support for the war on Ukraine, that might develop into a wider resistance movement.

Have any of y'all read or heard of this kind of covert activity being planned by NATO country intelligence operations?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 03-04-2023

Sounds like there is a pilot, pilot Ukrainian training program ongoing. Only 2 pilots thus far but glad that such an evaluation is taking place as it's a logical first place to start and that it seems to be expanding.

Quote:Two Ukrainian pilots are currently in the United States undergoing an assessment to determine how long it could take to train them to fly attack aircraft, including F-16 fighter jets, according to two congressional officials and a senior U.S. official.

The Ukrainians’ skills are being evaluated on simulators at a U.S. military base in Tucson, Arizona, the officials said, and they may be joined by more of their fellow pilots soon.

U.S. authorities have approved bringing up to 10 more Ukrainian pilots to the U.S. for further assessment as early as this month, the officials said.

https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/two-ukrainian-pilots-are-us-training-assessment-attack-aircrafts-f-16s-rcna73426

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-05-2023

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1632417388774793218?s=46&t=tTMJoVUyV69NbVTC5DVNgw[/tweet]

To quote Kenny Rogers, “know when to fold ‘em”

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 03-05-2023

Indeed it sounds like it’s time to move on from Bakhmut and fall back to a more supportable line. And it is undoubtedly true the defense of the city cost a list of Ukrainian manpower


But the article also fails to emphasize that Wagner was a unique offensive force in its ability to attack so recklessly, and now is essentially spent. The relative losses of offensive potential are very hard to quantify here from the outside, but I have to imagine within the Ukrainian general staff they have been assessing this continually and at least up until very recently have found the trade off worthwhile.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 03-05-2023

How much of the decision to stay in Bakhmut was about depriving Russia of a PR win around the time of the 1-year anniversary of the invasion?  

Did Ukraine accept the casualties to buy time to set of a second line of defense behind Bakhmut?

We may not know this type of information until long after the fact.

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