Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 02-20-2023

(02-20-2023, 12:38 PM)Mick Wrote:  My suspicion is that China's assistance will be minor at best. If they were going to aid the Soviet Union Russia in a substantive way, they would have done it in a deniable, clandestine fashion like Iran. In fact, I wonder if any of the other pariah states have already done so.

North Korea has.  So that's like 2/3 of the axis of evil.

I don't know what China will do, but I am guessing we are doing what we can to keep China's involvement minimal.  I think the bigger issue than China sending weapons is China enabling Russia to make weapons, by sending components like semiconductors.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 02-20-2023

I think you need telegram to view, but this is some really intense video of trench warfare, somewhere in Donbas. A Ukrainian soldier and his buddy who functions essentially as a modern day squire tossing him grenades and RPGs and ammo fight off a Russian assault by an elite Russian GRU spetznaz unit. The Ukrainian soldiers survived.

https://t.me/lost_generation_21/39

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 02-20-2023

(02-20-2023, 07:06 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I don't know what China will do, but I am guessing we are doing what we can to keep China's involvement minimal.  I think the bigger issue than China sending weapons is China enabling Russia to make weapons, by sending components like semiconductors.


BC

Absolutely the case. China both builds and can also legally buy semiconductors (and other thing for that matter) that are not available through "normal" sources to Russia. The semiconductor sales in many cases would also violate IP restrictions that China has in theory signed up for. This is the most important area IMO, not "lethal aid" but rather dual use EAR-99 stuff that Russia isn't supposed to get. This stuff may not be easy to track because it doesn't occupy several flatcars on a train, but it can be critically important in preventing Russia from building weapons.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 02-21-2023

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/22/ukrainian-pilots-could-toss-their-new-gps-guided-bombs-50-miles-behind-russian-lines/

Good article on new JDAM-ER precision guided munitions that are being provided and how they could be employed. Supposedly to be delivered by June, could be useful for a summer offensive in punching some holes, along with GMLRS and artillery, in Russian defensive fortifications.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 02-22-2023

Very encouraging to see a contingent of the majority party in the House following in POTUS footsteps, even pushing for still more weapons to Ukraine than POTUS has to this point. In particular, the House Foreign Affairs committee chair has called for ATACMS and F-16s to be sent. 

This is a very good antidote to the "Ukraine Fatigue" effort being pushed by a handful of House members. On a similar note, Senate Minority Leader McConnell was at the Munich Security Conference calling for more aid as well. IOW, looks like there will be bi-partisan support from the U.S. to keep the Ukraine military aid flowing through at least the rest of the current Congress.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 02-22-2023

I've read a number of statements about the war similar to the one Mark Hertling makes in this article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/20/ukraine-military-strategy-adaptation-victory/

"It will remain difficult for Russia to change — simply because it can’t. A nation’s army is drawn from its people, and a nation’s army reflects the character and values of the society. While equipment, doctrine, training and leadership are important qualities of any army, the essence of a fighting force comes from what the nation represents. Putin’s autocratic kleptocracy is thus far proving no match for Ukraine’s agile democracy." --MH

Question for those with deeper knowledge of Russia than I have:

Is there actually a shared character and value system for all of Russia?  Russia is an enormous country with geography that could/should support, among other things, different ways of life in different regions.  The US is diverse in values and ideology, maybe even more so now than in the recent past.  Is that diversity not present in Russia due to the closed nature of their society?  Is Hertling just spouting US talking points about Russia's supposed inherent flaws?  I'm interested in your input.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 02-22-2023

(02-21-2023, 11:31 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/22/ukrainian-pilots-could-toss-their-new-gps-guided-bombs-50-miles-behind-russian-lines/

Good article on new JDAM-ER precision guided munitions that are being provided and how they could be employed. Supposedly to be delivered by June, could be useful for a summer offensive in punching some holes, along with GMLRS and artillery, in Russian defensive fortifications.

Indeed a good article. Their explanation of the "how and why" of toss bombing should make clear the limitations of the "standard" JDAM when you are denied the "high perch". Unfortunately the comparison of the HARM integration to the JDAM integration is IMO over-simplified. One thing that made the HARM much easier is that even in US/NATO service an "adapter" is used to mate the missile with the hardpoint. There already was such a design. The JDAM doesn't use an adapter, so this will be a new design requirement. Unlike the HARM, which can be fired either with a planned target or with no target and acquire whatever you see mode, the JDAM has to be programmed by the releasing aircraft and must have data from the releasing aircraft. https://www.ausairpower.net/TE-JDAMPt1.html has an explanation of all this along with a picture of a JDAM on an F-18 hardpoint.

This is not to say an adapter can't be built, it undoubtedly can. It doesn't exist yet apparently. It also seems probable that the US has enough JDAMS in their current pipeline that they could get them to Ukraine immediately. The fact that we are building JDAM-ERs (apparently) for Ukraine indicates to me that we don't see Ukraine being ready to use these weapons "soon". Unfortunate.

I also believe that integration with the Ukraine's existing airframes will be very tricky. The US has a long history with toss-bombing. During the 1950s/early 1960s the US TAC was expected to use F-86 aircraft to deliver nuclear bombs against the Warsaw Pact if required. The airplanes could barely lift the bombs of the time and would have to fly low and fast to avoid interception. In order to escape the effects of the nuclear detonation, the aircraft had to "toss" the weapon toward the target and be going away from the target ASAP. Thus they had to practice toss bombing and the difficult maneuver required to roll upright while escaping at high speed. These toss bombing maneuvers were called "idiot loops". It was quickly discovered that the parameters of the loop were critical. The aircraft couldn't pull up too sharply or it would convert more of it's speed to altitude than "optimal" and therefore slow down the released bomb. The bomb would fall short. Doing the opposite would result in the bomb not going up high enough, falling both short and too quick, decreasing the pilots already minuscule probability of survival. You had to fly the loop almost perfectly. Even if you did that, you had to release the bomb at exactly the right point in the loop. Too soon or too late, you die. As a result, they automated the procedure (https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,867115,00.html). Note that there is a difference between "toss" bombing and "loft" bombing. The loft is easier on the airframe and doesn't require recovering at the top of the loop. Both were used. The main disadvantage of the loft is that you directly overfly the target.

JDAMS don't have to be "lofted" over the shoulder, but the airplane still has software that releases the munition at the "optimal" point in the "toss". How do you do that in a MIG? Not impossible, but it sounds like quite a challenge to do it quickly. How and where do you test it? We shall see.

UPDATE: Should have suggested the "obvious" as well: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toss_bombing.
Makes apparent the requirements on the airframe, pilot, and software integration.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 02-23-2023

Today there are news articles claiming that the sanctions are hurting Putin's war effort and another article saying the sanctions aren't hurting.  Then The head of Wagner Forces publishing pictures of many dead Wagnerites and blaming Putin for failing to provide ammunition.  Sounds to me that the head of the Wagner forces should be careful where he sleeps.
I presume the West has at least some idea of how the sanctions are affecting Russia, but there sure seems to be lots of people with opposing opinions on the subject.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/putins-chef-yevgeny-prigozhin-betrays-kremlin-with-gruesome-photos-of-russian-corpses

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/22/business/russia-economy-ukraine-anniversary/index.html

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-economy-resilient-sanctions-putin-last-laugh-1782655

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 02-23-2023

(02-23-2023, 06:29 AM)GK3 Wrote:  The head of Wagner Forces publishing pictures of many dead Wagnerites and blaming Putin for failing to provide ammunition.  Sounds to me that the head of the Wagner forces should be careful where he sleeps.

That's a pretty strong step for Prigozhin to take. Seems suicidal to me -- he's not out of Putin's reach. Unless he thinks Putin will be imminently deposed.

(02-23-2023, 06:29 AM)GK3 Wrote:  I presume the West has at least some idea of how the sanctions are affecting Russia, but there sure seems to be lots of people with opposing opinions on the subject.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-economy-resilient-sanctions-putin-last-laugh-1782655

From the article: "After GDP shrunk by 2.2 percent in 2022—much less than the 10-15 percent annual drop some had predicted early in the war—economists believe that instead of growth, Russia faces a decline in 2023."  I can't believe that after all the sanctions and the loss of a significant number of their educated work force, their GDP reduction was just 2.2%.  Seems inaccurate to me.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 02-23-2023

How does Ukraine war end? Experts say 2023 could prove decisive, dangerous – Harvard Gazette

Discussion of the impact of sanctions on Russia, which kind of mirrors the discussion above.  They are having an effect, but not a devastating one.

Quote:Both countries have suffered major economic declines since the war. Forty percent of Ukraine’s physical infrastructure has been destroyed while gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 33 percent. Russia’s Finance Ministry reports annual revenue fell 35 percent in 2022 while spending rose 59 percent.

But the many banking and trade sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Europe early on have done little to hurt Russia’s ability to wage war and thanks to cooperation from allies like China, India, and Iran, Russian consumers have not felt a significant pinch to their quality of life, said Alexandra Vacroux, executive director of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard.

That doesn’t mean Russia is doing well. Its economy was already battered before the conflict, so squeezing it further only makes life marginally more difficult for ordinary civilians, less so for the Kremlin. “The only way to keep Russia from fighting or winning this war is to give the Ukrainians military support,” she said.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 02-23-2023

(02-23-2023, 07:23 AM)Mick Wrote:  

(02-23-2023, 06:29 AM)GK3 Wrote:  The head of Wagner Forces publishing pictures of many dead Wagnerites and blaming Putin for failing to provide ammunition.  Sounds to me that the head of the Wagner forces should be careful where he sleeps.

That's a pretty strong step for Prigozhin to take. Seems suicidal to me -- he's not out of Putin's reach. Unless he thinks Putin will be imminently deposed.

(02-23-2023, 06:29 AM)GK3 Wrote:  I presume the West has at least some idea of how the sanctions are affecting Russia, but there sure seems to be lots of people with opposing opinions on the subject.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-economy-resilient-sanctions-putin-last-laugh-1782655

From the article: "After GDP shrunk by 2.2 percent in 2022—much less than the 10-15 percent annual drop some had predicted early in the war—economists believe that instead of growth, Russia faces a decline in 2023."  I can't believe that after all the sanctions and the loss of a significant number of their educated work force, their GDP reduction was just 2.2%.  Seems inaccurate to me.

War casualties and young/educated defections to Western countries hurt Russia, I'm sure, but there are offsetting factors.  Russia's reported unemployment rate declined from 5.0% at the end of 2021 to 3.7% at the end of 2022.  A lot of people went to work in support of the war effort, many of them from prison or otherwise unproductive starting places.  The sanctions probably also forced Russia to rely more on domestic workers to produce other goods and provide other services the country needed, leading to the employment of Russians who otherwise might have been idle.  I'm not sure what other factors might be at play.  Are oligarchs spending more of their money domestically instead of traveling to Western countries to buy luxury items?  Did the spikes in oil and natural gas prices during parts of last year help fill Russian coffers despite the sanctions regime?  Is the government rapidly spending currency reserves to fight the war, leading to an unsustainable sugar-high for the economy?  I don't have enough information to be able to fully explain Russia's ability to avoid a massive decline in GDP, but I also have a gut instinct that the modest GDP decline is masking some significant problems in the Russian economy and society.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 02-23-2023

(02-23-2023, 07:23 AM)Mick Wrote:  

(02-23-2023, 06:29 AM)GK3 Wrote:  The head of Wagner Forces publishing pictures of many dead Wagnerites and blaming Putin for failing to provide ammunition.  Sounds to me that the head of the Wagner forces should be careful where he sleeps.

That's a pretty strong step for Prigozhin to take. Seems suicidal to me -- he's not out of Putin's reach. Unless he thinks Putin will be imminently deposed.

(02-23-2023, 06:29 AM)GK3 Wrote:  I presume the West has at least some idea of how the sanctions are affecting Russia, but there sure seems to be lots of people with opposing opinions on the subject.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-economy-resilient-sanctions-putin-last-laugh-1782655

From the article: "After GDP shrunk by 2.2 percent in 2022—much less than the 10-15 percent annual drop some had predicted early in the war—economists believe that instead of growth, Russia faces a decline in 2023."  I can't believe that after all the sanctions and the loss of a significant number of their educated work force, their GDP reduction was just 2.2%.  Seems inaccurate to me.

Nothing boosts GDP like war (especially one in which your production capacity is not directly targeted). The fact that GDP fell 2.2% while government spending is up over 50% indicates that war spending is propping up the economy. Of course that spending is supported by debt, both foreign and domestic, and likely at high interest rates, as well as money printing which keeps the nominal GDP up while reducing PPP GDP.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 02-23-2023

This article was concerning
  Putin promotes Russian escalation in annual speech

Quote:"Russia suspends its participation in the New Start treaty," announced the Kremlin leader in his state of the nation address.

The Russian president announced that he had signed a decree on "putting new ground-based strategic complexes on combat standby duty".

He warned that Russia was ready to resume nuclear weapons testing.


New Start had been in trouble. Last month Washington had accused Moscow of violating the agreement by refusing to allow inspection activities on its territory.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 02-23-2023

(02-23-2023, 07:20 PM)M T Wrote:  This article was concerning
  Putin promotes Russian escalation in annual speech

Quote:"Russia suspends its participation in the New Start treaty," announced the Kremlin leader in his state of the nation address.

The Russian president announced that he had signed a decree on "putting new ground-based strategic complexes on combat standby duty".

He warned that Russia was ready to resume nuclear weapons testing.


New Start had been in trouble. Last month Washington had accused Moscow of violating the agreement by refusing to allow inspection activities on its territory.

But is there anything surprising in the comments? Bluster and Blather one would expect; blame the war on the West. Same tired narrative. Importantly, he did qualify the restart of nuclear weapons testing by adding "if the US does so first" (or something similar). I don't see that in our future.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 02-23-2023

(02-23-2023, 08:22 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:   
But is there anything surprising in the comments? Bluster and Blather one would expect; blame the war on the West. Same tired narrative. Importantly, he did qualify the restart of nuclear weapons testing by adding "if the US does so first" (or something similar). I don't see that in our future.

What?  You believe him????  Why, he’d no more stockpile and test nukes than invade a country unless the West started it.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 02-24-2023

Why anyone listens to Putin is beyond me. Nothing he says publicly can be trusted to be accurate, so what's the point?

Some will say you need to listen to your enemies. I say why, and only operate based on actions, not words. Saw a headline "Is Russia lying about its economic data?" I'm like, do we really need to ask this question?

On another note, Russia was eerily not very showy today in Ukraine, from a big event and initiative standpoint to mark the one year anniversary of its invasion, as most observers expected.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 02-24-2023

(02-23-2023, 09:22 PM)M T Wrote:  

(02-23-2023, 08:22 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:   
But is there anything surprising in the comments? Bluster and Blather one would expect; blame the war on the West. Same tired narrative. Importantly, he did qualify the restart of nuclear weapons testing by adding "if the US does so first" (or something similar). I don't see that in our future.

What?  You believe him????  Why, he’d no more stockpile and test nukes than invade a country unless the West started it.

I don't believe anything the guy says. Just because they're saying they'll pull out of a nuke agreement doesn't make me any more concerned. We've pretty much heard it all before, though for some reason, he added a qualifier to the latest threat. Why, who knows.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 02-24-2023

(02-24-2023, 07:42 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  On another note, Russia was eerily not very showy today in Ukraine, from a big event and initiative standpoint to mark the one year anniversary of its invasion, as most observers expected.

They're probably low on munitions and waiting for Chinese ordnance to arrive.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 02-24-2023

The US announced $2 billion in additional military aid, all in the form of ammo and drones (which I think are single use and function like ammo). 

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1629058555616559104?cxt=HHwWgICw3YGIypstAAAA

It seems both sides were low on ammo and may not be ready to launch major initiatives for a bit. Though we already surmised as much about the Ukrainian side.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 02-24-2023

(02-24-2023, 07:44 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:  Just because they're saying they'll pull out of a nuke agreement doesn't make me any more concerned. We've pretty much heard it all before, though for some reason, he added a qualifier to the latest threat. Why, who knows.

It isn't just what Putin says in a speech; it is what the US says Russia has done.  From the BBC article  "Last month Washington had accused Moscow of violating the [New Start] agreement by refusing to allow inspection activities on its territory."   In August, "Russia has told the US it has "temporarily" suspended on-site inspections of its strategic nuclear weapons, under an arms control treaty known as New START."
It appears Putin has now dropped the "temporarily" qualifier.

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