Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 01-15-2023

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-11

Interesting analysis. Suggests that Soledad might have been a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians, and that, for whatever reason, they are not using much armor: just artillery and infantry.

Quote: The Russians over the last few weeks have seemed to remove most vehicles from their assaults operations. Either the vehicles are too vulnerable and almost all those being included are being destroyed, or they are having problems supplying them—regardless, they have adopted a strategy of mass, regular assaults by groups of infantry supported by artillery—a human wave.

Good analysis of the relative equipment strengths and trends between Russia and Ukraine. Russia still has a decided advantage, but it is narrowing.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 01-15-2023

New reports of Ukraine advancing into Kreminna itself, though seems more like gradual advance then a bit breakthrough. 

Not obvious to me why Kreminna should be a major offensive source. It seems advancing from Zaporizhzhia/melitopol axis would be a better use of resources.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 01-15-2023

The Russians probably know the strategic importance of Zaporizia, and are defending it accordingly.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 01-15-2023

Interesting. Seems a new unit is being equipped with a lot of the new western gear, including that Bradley posted earlier and modernized M-55S tanks.
[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1614766830555656192?s=20&t=irHo1INxZFKjNJ9KMHqENw[/tweet]

Interesting thread-

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1614696984182685696?s=20&t=qUwSyvEX9LdpI4qcTjCo4A[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 01-15-2023

(01-15-2023, 05:46 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Interesting. Seems a new unit is being equipped with a lot of the new western gear, including that Bradley posted earlier and modernized M-55S tanks.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1614766830555656192?s=20&t=irHo1INxZFKjNJ9KMHqENw

Interesting thread-

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1614696984182685696?s=20&t=qUwSyvEX9LdpI4qcTjCo4A

Looks like Ukraine has a plan. Probably the plan is bigger than a single Brigade, but that is something for Ukraine to work out. Hopefully NATO can and will move fast, as every  day delayed is one less training day for the Ukrainians.

FWIW that previous IFV picture was almost certainly a Bradley. The rear door panel is a dead giveaway. So, some Ukrainians are actually already in one it seems :-).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 01-15-2023

Possibly where the Bradley video was filmed? 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/01/15/us-military-ukraine-training-germany-grafenwoehr/

Quote:ABOARD A U.S. MILITARY AIRCRAFT OVER EUROPE — The U.S. military has launched an expanded, more sophisticated training program of Ukrainian forces that is focused on large-scale combat and meant to bolster Ukraine’s ability to take back territory from Russian forces, the Pentagon’s top general said Sunday.

Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on a flight from Washington to Europe that the training began Sunday at the Grafenwoehr Training Area in Germany and will continue for five or six weeks. About 500 soldiers will go through the initial version of training, focused on what the military calls combined-arms warfare, in which tanks, artillery, combat vehicles and other weapons are layered to maximize the violence they inflict.

....

Other nations, including Britain, Poland and France, have pledged complementary weapons, including battle tanks, and Ukraine has pressured Germany to do the same. Milley said the challenge will be determining how quickly the Ukrainian military will be ready and trained to use all of the new military equipment. The situation will be eased because some of the Ukrainian forces already are familiar with other armored weapons, such as the T-72 tank.

“It’ll take a bit of time,” Milley said. “Five, six, seven, eight weeks, who knows. We’ll see what happens here. But in terms of the criticality of it, the need is now.”

Great dateline btw

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 01-15-2023

(01-15-2023, 04:52 PM)gocard14 Wrote:  New reports of Ukraine advancing into Kreminna itself, though seems more like gradual advance then a bit breakthrough. 

Not obvious to me why Kreminna should be a major offensive source. It seems advancing from Zaporizhzhia/melitopol axis would be a better use of resources.

I’ve read (here?) that taking Kremmina would split Russia’s army in Luhansk in half, making it more difficult to resupply or to move forces for an offensive or defensive maneuver.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 01-15-2023

I think that's a bit fanciful.  Here's the map of the Russian occupation with the GLOCs highlighted.



Ukraine capturing Kreminna will put some pressure on Russian resupply by eliminating a node, but to really slice Russian troops in two, the Ukranians would have to capture Staroblisk, which is much further east.  I think capturing Kreminna would allow Ukraine to put pressure on Rubizhne, Lysychansk, and Sieverodonetsk, which would have symbolic value because of the effort the Russians expended to capture that area in the summer, but might also allow the Ukranians to put pressure north towards Svatove.  I think it would be helpful, but not a game-changer.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 01-15-2023

(01-15-2023, 07:58 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Possibly where the Bradley video was filmed? 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/01/15/us-military-ukraine-training-germany-grafenwoehr/

Pretty likely I think.

Quote:ABOARD A U.S. MILITARY AIRCRAFT OVER EUROPE — The U.S. military has launched an expanded, more sophisticated training program of Ukrainian forces that is focused on large-scale combat and meant to bolster Ukraine’s ability to take back territory from Russian forces, the Pentagon’s top general said Sunday.

Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on a flight from Washington to Europe that the training began Sunday at the Grafenwoehr Training Area in Germany and will continue for five or six weeks. About 500 soldiers will go through the initial version of training, focused on what the military calls combined-arms warfare, in which tanks, artillery, combat vehicles and other weapons are layered to maximize the violence they inflict.

....

Other nations, including Britain, Poland and France, have pledged complementary weapons, including battle tanks, and Ukraine has pressured Germany to do the same. Milley said the challenge will be determining how quickly the Ukrainian military will be ready and trained to use all of the new military equipment. The situation will be eased because some of the Ukrainian forces already are familiar with other armored weapons, such as the T-72 tank.

“It’ll take a bit of time,” Milley said. “Five, six, seven, eight weeks, who knows. We’ll see what happens here. But in terms of the criticality of it, the need is now.”

Nice to see there is a sense of urgency on his part. It is only going to snow 6 of the next 13 days :-). Unfortunately not a great time to be training there, but then again that is what the troops will be fighting in, at least for a while. One "interesting" fact is that the Ukrainians will have a new "specialty" to train for. Unlike the T-72 and the Leopard, the Challenger (and the Abrams) don't have autoloaders. They will now have a new crew member, the loader, to deal with. The good news is that is considered the "entry level" position:-). Let's see how they do on the tank range after 8 weeks when it is snowing. That will reveal a lot. The training there can be real good. The Ukrainians will be as ready as the time allows. Take a look at https://fixbayonets.us/range-301-a-summer-night-in-1988-and-the-blackhorse/ This training incident show what happens to even experienced soldiers. This is a great opportunity for the Ukrainian troops. Let's hope for the best!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 01-16-2023

(01-15-2023, 02:13 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-11

Interesting analysis.  Suggests that Soledad might have been a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians, and that, for whatever reason, they are not using much armor: just artillery and infantry.

Quote: The Russians over the last few weeks have seemed to remove most vehicles from their assaults operations. Either the vehicles are too vulnerable and almost all those being included are being destroyed, or they are having problems supplying them—regardless, they have adopted a strategy of mass, regular assaults by groups of infantry supported by artillery—a human wave.

Good analysis of the relative equipment strengths and trends between Russia and Ukraine.  Russia still has a decided advantage, but it is narrowing.

BC

While I too find the analysis of relative equipment strengths interesting, I think the analysis of "strategy" in Soledar is flawed. Wagner is leading the "assault" in that area and is fighting like Wagner always fights. They don't have lots of vehicles and don't need them. Their strategy in both Africa and Syria is to use the "locals" as untrained cannon fodder to fix the opfor in position and force it to reveal their position by fighting the assault. Wagner then uses artillery (which they "borrow" from the real Russian army) to destroy the opfor.

In the Donbas previously the Russian army used a variant of this process in which they simply blanketed the Ukrainians with artillery without regard to where they actually were and without fixing them in place. The army couldn't use it's infantry like Wagner used locals in Syria because the Russian infantry simply wouldn't do it. Too many of them would get killed and they knew it. This worked fine (slowly) as long as Russia had unlimited artillery shells. Ukraine now has enough Western supplied artillery (including HIMARS) that the Russian logistical system can't supply unlimited shells. The Ukrainians keep blowing up the depots if they are too close to the FEBA and if they are far enough away to be safe the supply of shells is inadequate for continuous saturation barrages. It may also be that there is an impending shortage of the shells themselves.

Wagner couldn't get the locals in Donbas to function as human waves. The people from Donbas are simply too smart to go out there and get killed. Failing that, Wagner "recruited" convicts in Russia proper. No need for vehicles because a maneuver warfare breakthrough isn't what is required. The convicts attack in small groups which forces the Ukrainians to stay in place and fight. They reveal their positions and so a much more limited artillery strike (if properly executed) can destroy them. If a few rounds are "danger close" or even among the attackers, who cares? They are convicts anyway, not really Wagner but just a "project". Wagner has in fact complained that the artillery support provided to them by the army is "inadequate". No mystery here in what is going on. Revert to what "works". As long as you have cannon fodder, you can do this and it requires relatively little skill.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 01-16-2023

(01-15-2023, 08:15 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I think that's a bit fanciful.  Here's the map of the Russian occupation with the GLOCs highlighted.



https://www.criticalthreats.org/wp-content/uploads/Kharkiv-Battle-Map-Draft-January-152023-546x1024.png



Ukraine capturing Kreminna will put some pressure on Russian resupply by eliminating a node, but to really slice Russian troops in two, the Ukranians would have to capture Staroblisk, which is much further east.  I think capturing Kreminna would allow Ukraine to put pressure on Rubizhne, Lysychansk, and Sieverodonetsk, which would have symbolic value because of the effort the Russians expended to capture that area in the summer, but might also allow the Ukranians to put pressure north towards Svatove.  I think it would be helpful, but not a game-changer.


BC

The route that would be cut is the P66 road parallel to the FEBA between Lysychansk and Svatove. This is the main North-South route which allows Russia to quickly shift supplies and more importantly reinforcements from one area to the other. Cutting that route means everything going North-South has to go through Staroblisk (as you noted). That is a long detour and undoubtedly would create serious problems for Russia. It leaves a big triangle of land where Ukraine could operate that Russia could not easily reinforce or resupply. Note that the highways here are all "secondary" roads with limited capacity.

Cutting the P66 is indeed a significant advantage to Ukraine and places more defensive pressure on Russia. Instead of a relatively short front from
Lysychansk to Svatove they now must defend  Svatove to Staroblisk and Staroblisk to Lysychansk. That front is probably about 2.5 to 3 times as long and Russia will be on exterior lines of communication in that area. That will require lots more troops, and if you leave openings, Ukraine will find them.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 01-16-2023

I assumed (perhaps incorrectly) that the P66 is close enough to Ukrainian territory that Ukraine can scout it with drones and hit any convoys with artillery.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 01-16-2023

Have the power struggles started, or maybe already ended?

"Ukraine war: Russia's Wagner Group commander requests Norway asylum[url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64296979][/url]"

Quote:A former commander with the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group has claimed asylum in Norway after deserting from the mercenary outfit.

Andrey Medvedev, 26, crossed the border into Norway last Friday, where he was detained by border guards.
Mr Risnes said his client left Wagner after witnessing war crimes in Ukraine.
But the Russian human rights group Gulagu, who helped Mr Medvedev leave Russia, confirmed his identity. His escape is believed to be the first known instance of one of the group's soldiers defecting to the West.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 01-16-2023

Meanwhile, in Germany...

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-germany-influencers

Quote:Reuters found that some of the loudest agitators for a change in German policy have two faces. Some use aliases, and have undisclosed ties to Russia and Russian entities under international sanctions, or to far-right organisations.

I'm sure we are all shocked to find gambling in this establishment.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 01-16-2023

(01-16-2023, 11:50 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  I assumed (perhaps incorrectly) that the P66 is close enough to Ukrainian territory that Ukraine can scout it with drones and hit any convoys with artillery.

BC

You are certainly correct that Ukraine has the P66 under their artillery footprint at least near Kreminna. However, as the Russian retreat from Kherson demonstrated, having a road under fire doesn't mean you have shut it down. There is a cost to use it, but that cost may be low enough for it to still make sense. It is also a problem for Ukraine to commit artillery to closing the P66 as a primary task. They need it elsewhere too. You also need it to be available 24/7 as do the drones. The ammunition for the guns needs to be brought in without the benefit of an obvious road. On top of that, you have the problem of moving your guns around to defeat counter-battery while still maintaining fire control over the road. It is just a heck of a lot easier if you are sitting on the road with infantry. It is also obviously necessary if you want to advance across the road and into the lands beyond it.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 01-17-2023

Goose will be happy to know that Ukraine intends to use the anticipated delivery of Western tanks to form a separate armored brigade, rather than using them in dribs and drabs.  And it looks like Poland is doing the yeoman's job of getting commitments from various NATO members.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-plans-to-create-leopard-2-tank-brigade-fm-kuleba-says-news-50297424.html

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 01-17-2023

(01-16-2023, 02:35 PM)M T Wrote:  Have the power struggles started, or maybe already ended?

Tell him to stay away from upstairs windows and polonium.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 81alum - 01-17-2023

(01-17-2023, 01:05 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Goose will be happy to know that Ukraine intends to use the anticipated delivery of Western tanks to form a separate armored brigade, rather than using them in dribs and drabs.  And it looks like Poland is doing the yeoman's job of getting commitments from various NATO members.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-plans-to-create-leopard-2-tank-brigade-fm-kuleba-says-news-50297424.html

At the very beginning of the war, I speculated that this war might show that the era of the tank was over.  Cheap(er) anti-tank missiles and drones seemed to have undermined the survival rates of armored vehicles.  I really wonder if tanks will go the way of battleships: big, expensive targets that are easier to kill than their firepower is worth on this kind of battlefield.

And hasn't this war been a war of infantry and artillery, since those early days when Ukraine destroyed so many Russian tanks?  Will tanks on the Ukrainian side fare better than tanks on the Russian side?  Does Russia have access to the same number and quality of anti-tank weapons, hand held missiles, and drones that the West has?  Or is it that the Russians don't know how to use their own tanks properly, but the Ukrainians will understand the proper way of using Leopards?

Why is it that Ukraine wants these weapons so badly, when they themselves know how easy it has become to kill them?  Or are Russian tanks so far inferior to Leopards that they think the comparison unmerited?  

I've wondered about the request for Western tanks for months now.  Enlighten me, please.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Hurlburt88 - 01-17-2023

I keep looking at this through the lens of negotiations and end-game.   I also have doubts about the efficacy of tanks.   However, right or wrong, I feel like both Russia and NATO are posturing that each is in this for the "long haul" and thus tanks are symbolic of that . . . with other help "possible"

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 01-17-2023

[tweet]https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1615442283985248256?s=20&t=PqNXVETE4kp6qWkAxvmd6g[/tweet]

On tanks...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1611768817805414403?s=20&t=PqNXVETE4kp6qWkAxvmd6g[/tweet]

From a guy who would know.

Also, this analysis from Shoshank Joshi in the Economist.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/international/2022/06/15/does-the-tank-have-a-future

Quote:It would be wrong, however, to write the tank’s obituary based on its performance in the war, precisely because Russia has made such poor use of them. Many military experts had expected that drones would be little more than a nuisance in any conflict. But Russia’s failure to eliminate Ukrainian air defences in the first days of the war means that its warplanes cannot patrol the skies, giving tb2s more freedom to operate. Meanwhile, Russian air defences, designed to detect larger aircraft, seem to struggle with the smaller drones, though there have been improvements in recent weeks.

Modern armed forces prize the idea of combined-arms warfare, in which the various elements of a military formation compensate for each other’s weaknesses. Tanks can clear the way for infantry, but only infantry can go into a warren of tunnels to weed out enemy squads armed with anti-tank weapons. Warplanes can provide cover for advancing tanks and infantry, but need air defences on the ground to keep enemy planes away. Ben Barry, a former commander of a British armoured infantry battalion, now at the iiss, a think-tank, has called it “a lethal version of scissors, paper, stone”.

BC

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