Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-25-2022

(12-25-2022, 09:40 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Nobody other than right and left wing crazies take Putin seriously. Everyone else knows he can't be trusted one iota.

True, IMO.

Quote:I don't see Ukraine negotiating anything until they have all their territory back. And they shouldn't.

Ukraine gets to decide this, subject to international and military conditions. Right now, they are saying no negotiations until they get all their territory back. What they will say in six months, nobody knows, including Ukraine.

Quote:The only thing that makes sense is a DMZ between Russia and Ukraine, with the possible agreement Ukraine won't join NATO, but a trigger for Ukraine to join NATO immediately if Russia incurs its borders ever again. Seems fair and reasonable.

No, it is neither fair, reasonable, nor possible. First of all, for a NATO membership to be effective, you have to train with NATO and be part of the decision making process. You can't show up the day the war starts and suddenly get meaningful help. Russia may not screw it up the next time and actually take Kiev in three days. Furthermore, the assistance of NATO members isn't mandatory. If you haven't "paid your dues", you very well may not get the kind of help you need. That is why Sweden and Finland, both countries that have worked closely with NATO, decided to join. They know they need to be "inside the tent" to get effective help. NATO may also need the Ukraine to help it defend places like Romania, even if all it provides is access. Giving them a "free ride" until they get invaded isn't going to be acceptable to the member states who are on the front lines too, but are expected to carry their own weight.

It also must be said that any deterrent value a "NATO on invasion" membership for Ukraine would be minimal. That is why NATO has recently placed symbolic (but significant) detachments in the former Warsaw pact NATO nations bordering Ukraine. They are "tripwires" that ensure an actual NATO response. NATO troops will die on day one, and that is a meaningful commitment. Anything less leaves open the option that NATO will do nothing. This is especially true if Russia were to be effective early in the war. At the very least, such an arrangement would leave open the danger of Russia miscalculating what level of commitment NATO had to Ukraine's defense. Many, many reasons such an arrangement wouldn't fly.

It is probable that Ukraine will require bi-lateral arrangements with several NATO nations in order to have a credible defense going forward, independent of NATO membership. A situation like South Korea is much more likely to be necessary. Ukraine will need to be sure they have adequate defense available without relying on meaningful Article 5 responses from the "significant" NATO militaries. It would take too long, and if they weren't fully "inside the tent" on day one may not be forthcoming at all.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-25-2022

https://www.yahoo.com/news/jdams-ukraine-162445145.html

OK! a bunch of questions answered. We are supplying the guidance units and the bombs. We are also supplying adapters between the Russian pylons and the NATO pylons. These are undoubtedly a bit of a kludge and possibly not safe at supersonic speeds, but can work. In order to communicate the bombing parameters an RF link (Bluetooth) is being used. It probably requires installing an antenna that can "see" the pylon adapter, as radiating directly out of the cockpit probably wouldn't work on most Russian aircraft. Too much metal in the way. Installing an antenna (drilling a single small hole) isn't too hard to do in any case. In the US the safety of flight guys would go nuts, but there is a war on in Ukraine and we are already supplying adapters that probably haven't been extensively tested :-) If the intended platforms are SU-25s, the speed is a non-issue. There you have it.

This is great in that we have LOTS of JDAMS and can make more. The main limitation is the number of Ukrainian aircraft available and their survivability. As noted above, the Patriot can be intended to address that shortcoming, at least in large measure.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 12-26-2022

Lot of noise about Kreminna being next to be liberated. Initial reports of Ukrainian army in the city was debunked, but sounds like it’s mostly confirmed that the city is under fire control and Russian leadership has evacuated.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 12-27-2022

Two more friends of Putin found dead in a hotel in India. Very unhealthy to be his friend, at this point.

Two Russian nationals, including Putin critic, found dead in India hotel - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BigJohn043 - 12-27-2022

(12-27-2022, 11:13 AM)Mick Wrote:  Two more friends of Putin found dead in a hotel in India. Very unhealthy to be his friend, at this point.

Two Russian nationals, including Putin critic, found dead in India hotel - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

Agreed.  But this has to be making the oligarchs even more paranoid.  Hard to believe one doesn't know off Putin even at high risk....

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 12-27-2022

(12-27-2022, 11:13 AM)Mick Wrote:  Two more friends of Putin found dead in a hotel in India. Very unhealthy to be his friend, at this point.

Two Russian nationals, including Putin critic, found dead in India hotel - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

Maybe Russia is promoting a proposed new Olympic sport...    Window high diving.  Apparently, it is a very expensive sport to get into.  This proponent was worth $140M.

Pssst...  I suggest you don't buy any Russian sausages..

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Hurlburt88 - 12-28-2022

this article may be of interest to some.   I don't believe this is behind a paywall
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-state-of-play-in-ukraine/?utm_source=GPF+Free+Newsletter&utm_campaign=3ea35be8e3-20221228_FL_Weekly&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f716b3bf65-3ea35be8e3-264940373&mc_cid=3ea35be8e3&mc_eid=be94f95b1a

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 12-28-2022

(12-26-2022, 04:42 PM)gocard14 Wrote:  Lot of noise about Kreminna being next to be liberated. Initial reports of Ukrainian army in the city was debunked, but sounds like it’s mostly confirmed that the city is under fire control and Russian leadership has evacuated.

Looks to be true…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-sets-sights-on-retaking-key-eastern-city-11672233106

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-28-2022

(12-28-2022, 09:19 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  

(12-26-2022, 04:42 PM)gocard14 Wrote:  Lot of noise about Kreminna being next to be liberated. Initial reports of Ukrainian army in the city was debunked, but sounds like it’s mostly confirmed that the city is under fire control and Russian leadership has evacuated.

Looks to be true…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-sets-sights-on-retaking-key-eastern-city-11672233106

BC

It will be another important victory for Ukraine. It remains to be seen what effects it will have on the Russian GLOCs. It will have some, but probably not enough to really change things in Luhansk Oblast. The Russians once again appear to be retreating in "good order", which means they will mostly live to fight again. The slog will continue, but Ukraine will be closer to Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, both geographically and militarily. For Ukraine, these are important political targets and their revanche en la patrie would make Russia look even more incompetent. However, just like when Russia captured these cities, it didn't/won't much change the war.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 12-28-2022

(12-28-2022, 08:18 AM)Hurlburt88 Wrote:  this article may be of interest to some.   I don't believe this is behind a paywall
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-state-of-play-in-ukraine/?utm_source=GPF+Free+Newsletter&utm_campaign=3ea35be8e3-20221228_FL_Weekly&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f716b3bf65-3ea35be8e3-264940373&mc_cid=3ea35be8e3&mc_eid=be94f95b1a

Interesting article, citing five ways that wars end when neither side can produce a decisive victory on the field, and leadership will not concede. I don't see Ukraine finding capitulation to Russia as an acceptable alternative, given the war crimes that the Russians have accumulated. Even with depleted materiel, Ukraine would fight an ongoing guerilla war against Russians. Why Putin's advisors told Putin that Russia would be welcomed with open arms in Ukraine is anybody's guess, Russia has never been anything but harmful to the country and destructive to Ukraine's populace, dating back to Stalin's mass starvation of the Ukrainians.

Let's add a sixth way, which I find most likely: that internal factions eliminate or forcefully retire Putin. I think there's a chance for peace if that happens, but not while Putin runs the country.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 12-28-2022

You are probably right; the value is likely more symbolic than strategic, especially for Severodonetsk/Lyshyshank.  But it keeps “momentum”, demonstrates progress, even if slow, and shows the Russians that all the manpower and energy that they spent capturing the city was for naught.  Seems like a metaphor for the war itself.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 12-28-2022

(12-27-2022, 12:30 PM)M T Wrote:  

(12-27-2022, 11:13 AM)Mick Wrote:  Two more friends of Putin found dead in a hotel in India. Very unhealthy to be his friend, at this point.

Two Russian nationals, including Putin critic, found dead in India hotel - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

Maybe Russia is promoting a proposed new Olympic sport...    Window high diving.  Apparently, it is a very expensive sport to get into.  This proponent was worth $140M.

Pssst...  I suggest you don't buy any Russian sausages..

Laughed at this one [tweet]https://twitter.com/garydelaney/status/1608075070106214400?s=46&t=btrCmaObZxkw4-LGWtoM8g[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 12-28-2022

(12-28-2022, 09:19 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  

(12-26-2022, 04:42 PM)gocard14 Wrote:  Lot of noise about Kreminna being next to be liberated. Initial reports of Ukrainian army in the city was debunked, but sounds like it’s mostly confirmed that the city is under fire control and Russian leadership has evacuated.

Looks to be true…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-sets-sights-on-retaking-key-eastern-city-11672233106

BC

It looks like the main part of the city is under Ukraine control.  See where the head of Ukraine Intelligence was:
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1608118147822899204
but Ukraine is saying "Not yet".
https://news.yahoo.com/armed-forces-ukraine-urge-people-142256906.html

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 12-28-2022

Here's another one, Putin's tank boss Alexei Maslov and ex-Ambassador to NATO. I can't keep up.

Another mystery death in Russia as tank boss dies ‘suddenly’ a day after Putin abruptly cancels meeting with him

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 12-28-2022

(12-28-2022, 04:18 PM)Mick Wrote:  Here's another one, Putin's tank boss Alexei Maslov and ex-Ambassador to NATO. I can't keep up.



Another mystery death in Russia as tank boss dies ‘suddenly’ a day after Putin abruptly cancels meeting with him

In 2017, USA Today listed 38 deaths that may have been similar.

Here's what I found for 2022.  (Likely not the best links, but better than the one line comments.)

Dec 25:  General Alexei Maslov, 69, suddenly fell ill and died on Christmas Day
Dec 24:  Alexander Buzakov, Director General of the Admiralty Shipyards for the United Shipbuilding Company, specializing in non-nuclear submarines, died in St. Petersburg.
Dec 24:  Pavel Antov, Russia's richest politician(2019), fell from a building in Rayagada, Odisha, India.
Nov 9: Viktor Cherkesov, 72, former KGB and Putin close ally, died from a serious disease.
Sep 29:  Pavel Pchelnikov, executive of the state rail system, died from an alleged self-inflicted gunshot.
Sep 21:  Anatoly Gerashchenko, aviation chief, reportedly fell down a series of flights of stairs, in Moscow.
Sep 12: Ivan Pechorin, managing director of Putin's Far East and Arctic Development Corporation, died after falling overboard.
Sep 1:  Ravil Maganov, head of oil giant Lukoil, fell from a hospital window in Moscow.
Jul 6: Yuri Voronov, head of a shipping company with contracts with Gazprom, in Leningrad. Apparent suicide by gunshot to head in a pool.
Jun 24:  Vadim Zimm, former Russian security Colonel, likely suicide (per brother) related to bribery charges.
May 8: Alexander Subbotin, former top manager of oil giant Lukoil, found dead in the basement of a shaman, allegedly looking for a hangover cure. (More)
Apr 21: Sergey Protosenya, allegedly killed his wife & 18yo daughter with an axe(elsewhere, stab wounds), before hanging himself in Spain.
Apr 13: Vladislav Avayev,  ex-VP of Gaprombank, was found shot dead, assumed murder-suicide, in his Moscow penthouse. Wife and 13yo daughter also killed.
Mar 23:  Vasily Melnikov, owner of MedStorm, a medical supply company. He, his wife, and two young children were found stabbed to death in Nizhny Novgorod.  Allegedly, he gave instructions the day before regarding his burial.
Feb 28:  Mikhail Watford, a Ukrainian-born Russian oil and gas billionaire, was found dead in his home in Surrey, England
Feb 25: Alexander Tyulakov, a senior Gazprom financial and security official, died at his home allegedly by hanging near Leningrad.
Feb 8:  Igor Nosov, CEO of Putin's Far East and Arctic Development Corporation, died of a stroke at age 43.
Jan 30: Leonid Shulman, head of transport at Gazprom Invest., died of multiple stab wounds in his home near Leningrad.  Alleged suicide.


COVID:
Oct 13: Nikolay Petrunin, 47, Russian MP, chairman of an energy committee, after a month-long coma allegedly due to COVID.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 12-28-2022

It seems for now the main areas of interest for Ukraine are around Kreminna and Svatove.  No official gains yet, but nearby towns of Dibrova by Kreminna, and Kolomyichykha/Pidquichansk have possible been liberated, or are in that process.  Ukraine had been taking lots of ground in this Luhansk/Kharkiv front, but the muddy season slowed that down, maybe the ground is finally freezing.  

Russia has made some minor gains near Bakhmut in the eastern suburbs and in the southern town of Optyne.  They've had this land before, but been pushed away, we will see if that happens again.  Otherwise, it seems most of the rest of the lines are staying the same.  I don't think Ukraine plans to cross the Dnipro near Kherson anytime soon, besides maybe spooky boy stuff.  I really wish we could get a damage assessment of Engels airfield, but I think cloud cover has allowed Russians to clean up most of whatever mess was left.  

Goose, with these long range attacks rumored to be modified TU-141's, do you think the Saki airfield might have been an initial test of these drones?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 12-29-2022

Good piece on the counteroffensive of Kharkiv.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk/

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-29-2022

(12-28-2022, 08:54 PM)Treefence Wrote:  Goose, with these long range attacks rumored to be modified TU-141's, do you think the Saki airfield might have been an initial test of these drones?

It is possible, but I doubt it. These drones are pretty easy (relatively speaking) to detect and big enough they leave identifiable fragments. The nature of the attacks at Engels was known almost in real time. Saki is still a "mystery". Ukraine has been attempting to utilize this type of drone for some time. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-15/stray-soviet-era-drone-from-ukraine-raises-nato-defense-concerns It is therefore possible they used it elsewhere and some of the mystery explosions in this war were from these drones. OTOH we have seen these drones easily detected when used, even if after the fact from debris.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-29-2022

https://www.yahoo.com/news/scandal-russias-military-leadership-being-113100350.html

This article scares me. While I am glad to hear about conflicts inside the Russian war effort, the articles conclusion that the war is going to descend into a contest decided by who can manufacture the most artillery ammunition is very worrisome. If true, Ukraine is doomed. The author of this article is still thinking like a Russian. NATO always knew it couldn't match the Soviet Union shell for shell. Ukraine has even less chance to do that relying on the NATO nations to donate the shells. We can't make enough and we won't give it all to Ukraine.

The apparent shortage of shells near Bakhmut is due to the Ukrainians excellent utilization of their artillery and HIMARS to interdict the Russian logistics system, not a lack of shells themselves. The Russian army also probably doesn't have a good way to supply non-army (i.e. private) military units that are not in the chain of command. Crappy organizational structure to be sure. OTOH, Ukraine has shown some ability to adapt their approach to a less "men and material" approach towards a "tactical advantage through fire and maneuver" approach. That processes needs to be applied with ever increasing skill. A "regression" plays into Russia's strengths.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 12-29-2022

(12-29-2022, 10:08 AM)Goose Wrote:  https://www.yahoo.com/news/scandal-russias-military-leadership-being-113100350.html

This article scares me. ... A "regression" plays into Russia's strengths.

I'm not sure why it scares you.  Since it was published in The New Voice of Ukraine, it likely has nothing that isn't already publicly known.  I view it as a backhanded suggestion to the West to get more ammo to Ukraine, not as a military commitment of Ukraine to trade artillery attacks with Russia.  It keeps up the publicity of the power struggles in the Russian war effort, probably giving hope to those hoping Ukraine prevails.

The concern I have is the defensive lines that Russia has put up.  The effort at Kreminna is reportedly being slowed down by mine fields.  Is it naive to think one of the ways to deal with mine fields is to pave your way through with artillery craters.

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