Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 12-10-2022

Pretty gutsy of this Russian accepting the Nobel Peace Prize, shared with two others; all associated with the war in Ukraine.

"Yan Rachinsky, who accepted the prize on behalf of his organization, Memorial, one of Russia's oldest civil rights groups, lamented actions that continued to "sow death and destruction on Ukrainian soil," adding that the war was an "insane and criminal war of aggression against Ukraine.""

https://www.npr.org/2022/12/10/1142087351/russia-nobel-peace-prize-memorial-war-ukraine

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-10-2022

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4399/air-force-to-test-target-drone-turned-low-cost-unmanned-combat-air-vehicle

In my quest to find a way that Ukraine can inflict damage on Russia, I am somewhat optimistic about using something like QF-4 drones to attack "important" targets in Russia. The recent attacks by Ukraine presumably using TU-141 drones indicates that Russia is at least somewhat vulnerable to such attacks. Russia (Putin) has also stated that if the US provides Ukraine with long-range weapons and Ukraine uses such weapons to attack Russia proper, Ukraine will consider it an act of war by the US. For that reason, the US will probably NOT be supplying such weaponry for use against Russia.

The US no longer uses QF-4 drones, having moved on to QF-16 drones. Several NATO states, such as Turkey and Greece, still have and use F-4 aircraft. Turkey has the ability to convert F-4s into QF-4s. There are several companies that can do the same.
https://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/detail.php?aircraft_id=686
These "aircraft" could easily carry six 2000 lb bombs from Odessa to the Kerch Strait bridge (for example). A coordinated low altitude attack by 8 to 12 drones from the Black Sea has a very good chance of succeeding, especially if this is the first use of such a weapon. Such an attack could put the bridge out of action indefinitely. Ukraine could simply buy them on the open market. Russia couldn't blame us, we didn't supply them. (We may have paid for them, but that's a technicality). Similarly, these drones can attack Russian bases at significant distances from Ukraine. Even the TU-95/TU-22 bases on the Caspian Sea would be within range of a one-way attack. Maintaining an effective air defense from these drones would be a significant additional load for the Russians at the very least.

The other good point about these drones is that all the construction and checkout can be done outside of Ukraine, not burdening their already stressed industry with those tasks. Only those drones that attack successfully and RTB would need maintaining :-). (seriously, you actually can drop the bombs, not carry them down with you). I think this approach should be considered. It is certainly better than nothing.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 12-11-2022

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/11/ukrainian-himars-missiles-hit-russian-occupied-melitopol?CMP=oth_b-aplnews_d-1


BC

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BigEasyCard - 12-11-2022

(12-10-2022, 01:54 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Banksy painted a mural in Ukraine

The above mural is one of seven which Banksy recently created in Ukraine:

Banksy Reveals Seven Murals Throughout War-Torn Ukraine | Smart News| Smithsonian Magazine

I hope one day to travel to Ukraine with my SO to see all of them and support the Ukraine economy with my tourist dollars.

Geaux Cardinal!

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 12-11-2022

Could be smoke, but hopefully this might mean good news soon when it comes to weapons the US is providing to Ukraine. 

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/AndriyYermak/status/1602069527444996096?s=20&t=UO1_77xM6QO5mIbbNfjU9A]https://twitter.com/AndriyYermak/status/1602069527444996096?s=20&t=UO1_77xM6QO5mIbbNfjU9A[/tweet]

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-11-2022

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-air-strikes-hit-russian-141636767.html

These attacks are extraordinarily important because Melitopol is on the M-14 and a major chokepoint in the Russian "Land Corridor" to Crimea. Ukraine needs to break that connection somewhere between Mariupol and Melitopol. Obviously, taking back Melitopol would do that. Having Melitopol under HIMARS range is almost as good, as the strangulation of Kherson demonstrated. Russia's GLOC to Crimea is therefore already within the HIMARS attack envelope. If Ukraine can get it within the M777 envelope, they can close off the GLOC. Himars can make it costly and intermittent. M777s can close it. Russia doesn't appear to have the forces in place to counterattack this thrust. Their hold on Zaporizhia Oblast seems a bit tenuous at the moment. If Russia fails here, Crimea is in real trouble. The bridge and ferries can keep them going, but the civilian population won't much like it. A disruption of the SLOCs to Crimea coupled with cutting the GLOC would be another major Russian defeat. Let's hope it happens.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 12-12-2022

(12-11-2022, 10:19 PM)Goose Wrote:  https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-air-strikes-hit-russian-141636767.html

These attacks are extraordinarily important because Melitopol is on the M-14 and a major chokepoint in the Russian "Land Corridor" to Crimea. Ukraine needs to break that connection somewhere between Mariupol and Melitopol. Obviously, taking back Melitopol would do that. Having Melitopol under HIMARS range is almost as good, as the strangulation of Kherson demonstrated. Russia's GLOC to Crimea is therefore already within the HIMARS attack envelope. If Ukraine can get it within the M777 envelope, they can close off the GLOC. Himars can make it costly and intermittent. M777s can close it. Russia doesn't appear to have the forces in place to counterattack this thrust. Their hold on Zaporizhia Oblast seems a bit tenuous at the moment. If Russia fails here, Crimea is in real trouble. The bridge and ferries can keep them going, but the civilian population won't much like it. A disruption of the SLOCs to Crimea coupled with cutting the GLOC would be another major Russian defeat. Let's hope it happens.

The hotel/restaurant that was hit is apparently "Привал охотника, Interkulturna Street 2/19 Melitopol, Запорожье, Ukraine, 72300" (Hunter's Halt).  There were reportedly two other targets hit at about the same time, one about 20km  north of Melitopol, and some tracking radar.  

My question is what missiles were fired from where.  The closest Ukrainian-held territory is about 85km to the NNW on the north shore of the Dnipro.  The HIMARS are range-limited to less than 50 miles (80.5 km).   I saw another report suggesting they were Turkish TRLG-230 missiles, but their maximum range is 70 km.

If the Ukrainians had crossed the Dnipro to fire these missiles (or fired them from a boat), this seems like a very risky move with a precious resource, as they couldn't get far from where they were fired.

Something doesn't add up.

(The Ukrainian exiled mayor of Melitopol said dozens dead, 200 injured, which is less than earlier reports said.)

I would have thought the M-18 is the major highway for supplies to get to Crimea. It stays about 120 km from the north/west side of the Dnipro.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 12-12-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1602420073557524480?s=20&t=ScADkVVeTKZa5j8OUJDrrw[/tweet]

BC

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 12-12-2022

Slovakia ready to transfer 11 Mig-29s to Ukraine


Back in April, Ukraine knocked down a rail bridge near Melitopol.  I wonder why they (tried to) take down a road bridge rather than a rail bridge.  There's only one rail line, but there are amazingly few bridges on that line.  A small one is just NE of Melitopol.

Regarding the road bridge they tried to take down today, I'm surprised they didn't also try to take down at the same time the bridge on the bypass road around Melitopol.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-12-2022

(12-12-2022, 06:15 PM)M T Wrote:  My question is what missiles were fired from where.  The closest Ukrainian-held territory is about 85km to the NNW on the north shore of the Dnipro.  The HIMARS are range-limited to less than 50 miles (80.5 km).   I saw another report suggesting they were Turkish TRLG-230 missiles, but their maximum range is 70 km.
If the Ukrainians had crossed the Dnipro to fire these missiles (or fired them from a boat), this seems like a very risky move with a precious resource, as they couldn't get far from where they were fired.
Something doesn't add up.

I agree with you that Ukraine wouldn't have risked HIMARS in some kind of a hit and run raid behind the lines. I had thought Ukraine was actually closer to Melitopol but I doubt the HIMARS would be right on the front lines. Maybe 40 Km over Russian territory, but not more. Could be more Ukrainian deception to worry the Russians. If they are really that close to Melitopol, Russia is in trouble. If not, who knows.

Quote:I would have thought the M-18 is the major highway for supplies to get to Crimea.  It stays about 120 km from the north/west side of the Dnipro.

It is, but to get the supplies from Russia to the M-18 at Melitopol you must use the M-14. That is one reason the siege of Mariupol was such a big deal. The guys in the steel plant had the M-14 covered by fire, and until they were gone Russia couldn't use the rest of their "land bridge". Obviously taking Melitopol cuts both routes, but cutting the M-14 in the direction of Russia (say at Berdyans'k) is almost as good. Freeing a major city is however a goal all on it's own.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-13-2022

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sabotage-ukrainian-neptune-missiles-beginning-103509980.html

This article illustrates, among other things, the importance of timing. I think it is pretty clear that the manufacturer did everything possible to get the Neptune missiles delivered before Russia actually invaded. They didn't argue that the contractual delivery date hadn't arrived yet, and I bet a lot of people worked a significant amount of (probably unpaid) overtime to make it happen. That is what has to happen when you are at war or there is a threat of war. Unfortunately, the weapons and supplies given by the US and NATO don't seem to have this required urgency behind them. It is bad enough that the decision making process to deliver something is pretty slow. That may just be unavoidable because consensus might require a lot of discussion/cajoling. However, once the decision has been made, not expediting its execution can result in very negative events. Imagine the Neptune missile shipment was delivered on March 20, not Feb 20. The "West" needs to move at the speed of war, not the speed of CalTrans.

The "sabotage" issue is a tricky one. IMO it is entirely possible the same component was damaged in all the missiles because it was incorrectly installed by the same technician who didn't have proper training/experience. These were the first "production" run. Stuff happens. It could also be a design flaw that makes the component prone to damage during installation or transport. Obviously I don't know, but I think that possibility cannot be easily discounted.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 12-13-2022

Wow, this is pretty big! 

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1602717399882645504?s=20&t=kiFR5dDa0XTC0CTZlDkpxA]https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1602717399882645504?s=20&t=kiFR5dDa0XTC0CTZlDkpxA[/tweet]

---

Assuming training hasn't already begun, I'd imagine it'll take months to train Ukrainians.  I wonder how many systems as well.  I think a battery costs about 1 billion dollars or so, not sure if that includes missiles.  I wonder if this could replace the future NASAMS orders, since those might take too long?  Goose, I'm sure you'd have a lot more insight.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 12-13-2022

(12-13-2022, 10:39 AM)Treefence Wrote:  Wow, this is pretty big! 

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1602717399882645504?s=20&t=kiFR5dDa0XTC0CTZlDkpxA]https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1602717399882645504?s=20&t=kiFR5dDa0XTC0CTZlDkpxA[/tweet]

---

Assuming training hasn't already begun, I'd imagine it'll take months to train Ukrainians.  I wonder how many systems as well.  I think a battery costs about 1 billion dollars or so, not sure if that includes missiles.  I wonder if this could replace the future NASAMS orders, since those might take too long?  Goose, I'm sure you'd have a lot more insight.

Awesome news! My guess is the administration is seeing the writing on the wall that the war will continue longer then S300 stocks can hold out and an alternative integrated long range system is needed to maintain air denial. Here’s hoping the training and procurement started long ago and this is just the public announcement.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 12-13-2022

I don't know if this has been posted in this thread, but to me, this should be a very big deal.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-minister-is-open-minded-over-sending-longer-range-weapons-ukraine-2022-12-12/

I wonder if just the announcements that the NATO countries are gonna amp up military aid for Ukraine is a lever being used to force Russia into some sort of surrender. I don't expect Putin would surrender, but if the UK is sending long-range missiles to Ukraine, and the U.S. Patriot systems to knock down Russian missiles, in conjunction with Ukraine's push onto Crimea's doorstep, it might lead to Putin's downfall.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 12-13-2022

With Russia's army & conventional weapons stretching as thin as they seem, I wonder how Russia (and I mean more than Putin) would react if NATO announced some sort of ground exercise not far from Russia's borders?  They would see it as a potential invasion ploy and would want to be in a position to respond, even if such an invasion would be foolhardy.  Just announcing & planning the exercise might be enough; we could agree to not carry it out if Russia would give something up.  Could that be a tipping point for some structure in Russia saying that it couldn't risk this war draining them any further.

I think that would be less risky than supplying Ukraine with missiles that can strike deep in Russia.  One bit of wrong intelligence, one erroneous target, one rogue commander might result in a strike that Russia would say was an offensive attack.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-13-2022

(12-13-2022, 10:39 AM)Treefence Wrote:  Wow, this is pretty big! 

[url=https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1602717399882645504?s=20&t=kiFR5dDa0XTC0CTZlDkpxA]https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1602717399882645504?s=20&t=kiFR5dDa0XTC0CTZlDkpxA

---

Assuming training hasn't already begun, I'd imagine it'll take months to train Ukrainians.  I wonder how many systems as well.  I think a battery costs about 1 billion dollars or so, not sure if that includes missiles.  I wonder if this could replace the future NASAMS orders, since those might take too long?  Goose, I'm sure you'd have a lot more insight.

Politically, it is very big. It sends the message that the US will send our "best" (after many months have passed). Operationally, it is pretty much a nothingburger. It will be useful, but like the fact is it is still a point defense system. It can protect the area within it's footprint from what it can see and/or from what the network tells it. In Ukraine, right now, there is no network, which means the Patriot (like the NASAMS and for that mater the S-300) has to find it's own targets. Against Kalibr and KH-101 type missiles, the same radar horizon that limits an NASAMs battery limits a Patriot battery. They can only hit what they can see. The radar horizon is the limiting factor, not the range. The Patriot will do better against stealthy missiles. So maybe a 40 km radius circle.

There is also the question of 1) how many Patriots are they sending? 2) when are they sending them? Remember they announced the NASAMS and then took MONTHS to deliver two of them. Patriots are in inventory but are not "abundant". What happens here will be important.

There is one thing the Patriot battery CAN do that right now the Ukrainians can't really do, and that is shoot down KH-22 and similar missiles. At high altitude the Patriot can see a long way and can also engage targets at high angles. It can also do this at pretty long range. This will be tactically useful.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 12-13-2022

I don’t know if it’s worth the millions that a Patriot costs to use a small warhead for offense, but I believe this will now be the longest range missile Ukraine has in its arsenal.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Hurlburt88 - 12-14-2022

switching gears a bit, here is some news that is not as good.  
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wagner-group-breach-ukrainian-lines-to-take-control-of-eastern-bakhmut-isw/ar-AA15g0ll?cvid=1fcaaa665bcd47f39012598c0c93379b

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 12-14-2022

(12-14-2022, 06:33 AM)Hurlburt88 Wrote:  switching gears a bit, here is some news that is not as good.  
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wagner-group-breach-ukrainian-lines-to-take-control-of-eastern-bakhmut-isw/ar-AA15g0ll?cvid=1fcaaa665bcd47f39012598c0c93379b

I'm missing the significance of Bakhmut from a strategic standpoint. It seems to me the ROI for Russia there is pretty poor. They have spent an insane amount of resources to advance very little.

I just saw a story that said Russia will be pretty much out of ammunition in early 2023, so good luck keeping whatever minimal territory it captures, while Ukraine re-captures more and more.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-14-2022

(12-14-2022, 06:54 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  I just saw a story that said Russia will be pretty much out of ammunition in early 2023, so good luck keeping whatever minimal territory it captures, while Ukraine re-captures more and more.

We keep seeing these stories, but they are either total nonsense or based on estimates we have no way of verifying. Russia isn't going to "run out" of 152 mm ammunition for YEARS. I have put out the known facts on this several times. What is however true is that much of this ammunition will be well past it's "use by" date, which will affect it's accuracy and safety considerably. Russia may run out/has run out of 122 mm ammunition because not nearly as much of it was made. Russia is also manufacturing new ammunition of both types, but not close to as much as they are using. We don't know if/when other facilities in Russia will come online making this stuff.

Missiles of all types are a different story, but we don't actually know what the "bottom line" on any of it is. Russia is clearly hurting in this area, yet despite sanctions they seem to be building Kalibr and KH-101 missiles in tactically significant numbers. We don't actually know how many of these missiles they had at the start of the war, and we also aren't sure how many they have used. We don't know how many they are manufacturing per month. Clearly our original estimates of single digits are questionable at this point. We also don't know if they are using strategic stockpiles of ICs to continue manufacturing, or if they have found pipelines around the sanctions. In the past they have been very good at this. We also don't know how many missiles they must hold back to ensure the rest of their defense force isn't naked.

In short, it is very hard to know what Russia's supply situation actually is. Relying on the fact they are going to run out is a very bad idea, as experience in this war has already shown.

---