Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 11-10-2022

(11-10-2022, 12:24 PM)Treefence Wrote:  The standoff range makes sense, but in this scenario with a fully retreating enemy, you'd think they'd get a bit more aggressive. I think the ISW map is outdated, as we now have a lot of towns visually confirmed to be liberated that are listed in red, and other much closer settlements rumored to be liberated (Chornobaivka & Mylove), but that being said, it would still take time for AFU to move their big guns to those cities anyway.

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A much faster updated map can be found here.

  https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1gO8X7RC8cUzc-1q7-s4-09X53HNIEJA&ll=46.63175787081257%2C32.794542135571206&z=9

My experience is that the ISW is conservative but generally accurate. I can't count the number of time Mylove has been "captured" by Ukraine. I think there are lots of areas that are occupied by whoever wanders through. There is a lot of territory there, too much to put garrisons everywhere by either side. I also think Ukraine is being very conservative with their NATO supplied weapons because they (probably rightly) fear they will not be replaced if destroyed.

There are also unconfirmed reports that UAF are inside Kherson city's outskirts. If they have actually taken Chornobaivka that is very plausible. The real hope would be that if they are able to move that fast they could actually reach the river and cut off all remaining Russian forces. Blocking their retreat with a military force works even better than doing so by fire :-).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 11-10-2022

Agreed Goose, hopefully Ukraine is pushing faster than Russia is retreating, which given the Dnipro, might be possible.  The one thing I wonder is whether Russia has had started the full scale retreat weeks ago, and that there are only smaller pockets of spoiling troops left.  Only time will tell for all of these, but at the very least, it seems certain Ukraine will take back the city of Kherson and all occupied land West of the Dnipro.

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Wagner linked Telegram channel Grey Zone now reporting that forward elements of Ukrainian forces have entered Kherson.  All unconfirmed, but notable that this is a Russian source.  Wouldn't be the first time a Russian source exaggerated Ukrainian gains, to make it look like Russians pushed them back later.  The crazy rumor phase is always fun, but we will know the truth soon enough.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 11-10-2022

(11-10-2022, 02:56 PM)Treefence Wrote:  Agreed Goose, hopefully Ukraine is pushing faster than Russia is retreating, which given the Dnipro, might be possible.  The one thing I wonder is whether Russia has had started the full scale retreat weeks ago, and that there are only smaller pockets of spoiling troops left.

Russia has pulled out troops from the right bank for a couple of months, along with material. However, they have also sent troops and some material in the other direction. Ukraine believes there are still 20,000 troops in the immediate area of Kherson. So yes, the retreat has been going on for a while, but not full speed. There are plenty of Russians left. What the Russian plan to get them out in one piece may be, nobody knows. It is also worth noting there are lots of Russians on the right bank further up the river from Kherson, and those troops will need to retreat too.

Quote:Only time will tell for all of these, but at the very least, it seems certain Ukraine will take back the city of Kherson and all occupied land West of the Dnipro.

That has been "certain" (given that in war nothing is certain) for several months. What is still at issue is how much damage Ukraine can do to Russia in the process. Nobody wants to see Russia extract a significant force that will have to be destroyed later on the left bank where supplies are harder to cut off. Putin probably will survive a retreat from Kherson, partly because it has been a slow-motion one. A debacle with many thousand casualties/prisoners is another case.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 11-10-2022

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1590856113817272322?s=20&t=dp3zegBAEJaygE0eeit1LQ[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1590843959005544462?s=20&t=dp3zegBAEJaygE0eeit1LQ[/tweet]

Bad time to be a Russian soldier in Kherson!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 11-10-2022

(11-10-2022, 04:59 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1590856113817272322?s=20&t=dp3zegBAEJaygE0eeit1LQ

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1590843959005544462?s=20&t=dp3zegBAEJaygE0eeit1LQ

Bad time to be a Russian soldier in Kherson!

Indeed it is! The fact the barrage continued for 2-3 hours definitely says it was guns. Antonivka is the up-river suburb of Kherson where the bridge crosses the river. Kherson itself may not yet be reachable, but the bridge is what matters. It also means that the road that goes to Nova Kakhovka is under the same fire control. Now, Ukraine should go like mad to occupy that area. Nobody/nothing in or out. It is one thing to keep fighting when your GLOCS are under artillery fire. You can still use them, just a a considerable cost. If there are Ukrainian troops there, no go. That really takes the starch out of both the leadership and the troops. They know it is now "victory or death". Surrender starts to look inevitable and justified "We were cut off and had no ammunition comrade."

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 11-10-2022

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1590857998770896896?s=20&t=QyD7zfxUmYXA490-2HAOLw[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 11-10-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1590903855122120704[/tweet]

In so far as this is true, it is not good news. However, the retreat from outposts of Kherson into Kherson itself is one thing. Actually getting across the river is another. This tweet doesn't spell out what is happening on that score. The important point is that Ukraine needs to get a move on and capture the bridge/surrounding area. All these other advances are great but they don't hit the Russians at their "center of gravity". If you don't do that, you don't win.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 11-11-2022

Kherson!

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/SvitMore/status/1591074837237477377?s=20&t=Q9hlC7fGuoo07Cq7N98DDA[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1591075861914324998?s=20&t=Q9hlC7fGuoo07Cq7N98DDA[/tweet]

Lots of great videos like these. I suspect by the end of the day we'll get some exploded/captured Russian equipment vids.

Interesting look at the Ukrainian USV. Scroll to first tweet in thread for video.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1591046414699724801?s=20&t=Q9hlC7fGuoo07Cq7N98DDA[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 11-11-2022

It seems Ukraine has liberated just about everything on the right bank of the Dnipro, now we wait to see if large batches of Russian POW's and equipment start showing up.  I wonder if we see any footage of damage inflicted on those crossing as well.  

Incredible to see Kherson liberated, what a moment for ZSU.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 11-11-2022

Seems like the retreating Russians didn't blow the dam 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1591124539815366663?s=20&t=tLfHdP3e8_XSvGXf2DGOEQ[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 11-11-2022

I wonder if this was back channeled to allow the Russians to withdraw. This is because we’re not seeing the destruction or capture of blocking forces. Also not seeing the Russians raining artillery on Kherson from across the river. The main leverage they would have to negotiate it is the tens of thousands of civilians in Kherson and/or not blowing the dam.

I’m hoping that’s not true, and we’ll see/hear about more Russian forces being destroyed or captured, we’ll see

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 11-11-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1591096972660047872?s=46&t=CQkQ5qtzj0kU4opSIasypQ[/tweet]

Photos of the destroyed bridge.


BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 11-11-2022

(11-11-2022, 10:58 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  [tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1591096972660047872?s=46&t=CQkQ5qtzj0kU4opSIasypQ[/tweet]

Photos of the destroyed bridge.


BC

Suggests either the Russians had mostly completed their withdrawal, or the Ukrainians were pushing forward fast enough they had to blow the bridge regardless of who was left behind. Hope it’s the latter.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 11-11-2022

There have been a few captured tanks and artillery pieces shown, but we have a very limited glimpse.

Ukraine set this up with months of bombardment until Russian positions became untenable, and are now recapturing Kherson in an intact state, not a bombed out ruin.

Prioritizing Ukrainian lives but taking large chunks of territory has been the Ukrainian way with their offensives, and it has been effective. Expecting a NATO like broad offensive on the left bank was never a realistic possibility, and probably would have resulted in unsustainable Ukrainian losses if attempted. I trust the AFU general staff to continue prosecuting a successful offensive while keeping their soldiers alive.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 11-11-2022

Give it time to see how much captured Russian Equipment there is.  After the Kharkiv/Izium offensive, it took weeks to see visual evidence of all the captured equipment.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 11-11-2022

This is awesome.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1591100046635929608?s=20&t=LvEN5hzcnIS_9lL0bHNbAw[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 11-11-2022

https://www.yahoo.com/news/over-half-russian-forces-still-174800783.html

I agree we are going to need some time to allow all the data possible to come in. ATM, it appears the Russians have executed a maskirovka operation for the ages. As late as the morning of Friday Nov 11 Ukraine was still releasing things like the above.We do know the Russian claim that they evacuated 30,000 men and all their equipment without loss is false. How close to true it may be is TBD.

While I totally agree that Ukraine was not ready to operate like a NATO formation, it is not true that operating that way produces more casualties. The high mobility forces NATO deploys are designed to AVOID direct confrontations with a superior enemy force and maneuver to create situations of local superiority. Since Ukraine couldn't do that, they had to substitute closely perusing the retreating Russians to keep them off balance. It appears that they didn't quite do that, but we will see when more data becomes available. Ukraine has in the past been good at judging Russian strength, avoiding direct confrontation with superior forces but keeping up the pressure. The appear to have got it wrong this time, but we don't know yet for sure.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 11-11-2022

At the risk of posing a rhetorical question, what do the Russians stand to gain from continuing to fight this war?  They can lay waste to Ukrainian towns and kill Ukrainian people.  At a brobdingnagian cost to Russia.  But it does not seem like the Russians will net natural resources, intact cities, or anything else of value.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 11-11-2022

(11-11-2022, 07:24 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  At the risk of posing a rhetorical question, what do the Russians stand to gain from continuing to fight this war?  They can lay waste to Ukrainian towns and kill Ukrainian people.  At a of immense proportions cost to Russia.  But it does not seem like the Russians will net natural resources, intact cities, or anything else of value.

It never did make sense on any level. It is a total vanity operation by Putin. There are lots of things Ukraine could do for Russia, and visa versa. There are natural economic synergies between the two countries that were nurtured by many years under a common flag. Yelsin actually thought both Belarus and Ukraine would vote to stay in the Russian Federation for those reasons. However, after Russia's actions in 2014 and subsequently, none of that is possible. Putin is a fool.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Hurlburt88 - 11-12-2022

(11-11-2022, 09:38 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(11-11-2022, 07:24 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  At the risk of posing a rhetorical question, what do the Russians stand to gain from continuing to fight this war?  They can lay waste to Ukrainian towns and kill Ukrainian people.  At a of immense proportions cost to Russia.  But it does not seem like the Russians will net natural resources, intact cities, or anything else of value.

It never did make sense on any level. It is a total vanity operation by Putin. There are lots of things Ukraine could do for Russia, and visa versa. There are natural economic synergies between the two countries that were nurtured by many years under a common flag. Yelsin actually thought both Belarus and Ukraine would vote to stay in the Russian Federation for those reasons. However, after Russia's actions in 2014 and subsequently, none of that is possible. Putin is a fool.

Goose, let me offer one thread of logic from Russian standpoint for this tragic effort--and as I do this know that despite what I lay out I think it was and is a horrible mistake on many levels.  Russia has been invaded from Europe many times over the centuries, which is enabled by lack of barriers such as mountains or large water bodies.  THus, Russia desires a "buffer" of land in protection of Russia proper.  Having NATO on its doorstep is something Putin always detested, and may have increasingly wanted to reverse before he leaves power--and he is probably watching his clock.  Superimpose that core belief with the reality of Russia's demographic decline, and he may have adopted a mentality of, "If we don't do this now, Russia is condemned to strategic vulnerability for the foreseeable future".  Almost now or never. And yes, vanity definitely plays in.

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