Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 10-23-2022

(10-23-2022, 05:15 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(10-23-2022, 05:09 PM)M T Wrote:  

(10-23-2022, 03:17 PM)Goose Wrote:  https://www.yahoo.com/news/thousands-moldova-anti-government-protest-202934625.html

The pot is being stirred everywhere. This is just one reason having troops in Romania may be needed. Last thing NATO and Ukraine want is a wider war, but Russia seems to be creating the threat of it in Belarus and is undoubtedly encouraging dissent in Moldova. As in parts of Ukraine, there are a significant number of people that prefer alignment with Russia.

I imagine the US-Russia phone call was to inform Russia exactly what we were about to do, and why, and what we weren't doing.  The last thing anyone in the world would want is for some Russians to get spooked by this NATO deployment and react like NATO or the US were becoming or threatening to become part of the battle.

I agree, probably that and a few other things that needed clarification.

Apparently there was a call from Russia to the US, et al, two days later in which Russia indicated Ukraine was preparing a radioactive device as a provocation. 

Russia likes to stir things up, don't they?

If such a device goes off in the Kremlin, then maybe it is worth looking into.  If it were to go off in Ukraine, then it would be clear that the retreating forces did it.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-23-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/steveholland1/status/1584276849617965056?s=46&t=dO6rEuG7HsNt3oz8AkaEtA[/tweet]

Or, put more succinctly, “we call bulls***.”

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-23-2022

Meanwhile in Bakhmut…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1584181021544570880?s=61&t=6OtpxArIWkQDMpIBl2JB1A[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-23-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/harries_matthew/status/1584392659866558464?s=61&t=6OtpxArIWkQDMpIBl2JB1A[/tweet]

As I said, “we call bull”.

BC

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TreesAndBirds - TreesAndBirds - 10-23-2022

Is it possible that Putins officers might regret providing weapons to conscripts who dont want to be there and feel poorly treated? 

Article shows clip of soldier publicly questioning whether their leaders are of any use and tens of soldiers applauding.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11343917/Conscripts-drafted-Ukraine-war-threaten-topple-Russian-regime-failing-invasion.html

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RE: TreesAndBirds - Goose - 10-24-2022

(10-23-2022, 09:50 PM)TreesAndBirds Wrote:  Is it possible that Putins officers might regret providing weapons to conscripts who dont want to be there and feel poorly treated? 

Article shows clip of soldier publicly questioning whether their leaders are of any use and tens of soldiers applauding.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11343917/Conscripts-drafted-Ukraine-war-threaten-topple-Russian-regime-failing-invasion.html

Maybe, but another read is that it gives the officers an excuse. "The convicts you gave me mutinied and I had to run from them" :-).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 10-25-2022

A worthwhile article on the impact of the coming Winter fighting season.  If a country knew the importance of being prepared for Winter fighting, Russia should be at the top of the list, but seemingly it is now near the bottom.  A challenging period to say the least.
https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-general-winter-is-about-to-arrive-this-time-its-not-good-news-for-the-russian-army-193247

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 10-25-2022

(10-25-2022, 11:57 AM)GK3 Wrote:  A worthwhile article on the impact of the coming Winter fighting season.  If a country knew the importance of being prepared for Winter fighting, Russia should be at the top of the list, but seemingly it is now near the bottom.  A challenging period to say the least.
https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-general-winter-is-about-to-arrive-this-time-its-not-good-news-for-the-russian-army-193247

Keeping the NATO coaltion on the same page through the winter is going to be a major challenge.  The new UK PM appears less willing to spend on aid and there have been reports in major newspapers here that members of congress on both ends of the spectrum are growing tired of spending on aid as well.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-25-2022

The dumb letter the progressive caucus put out yesterday has already been retracted, supposedly signed months ago and put out by a staffer. What a stupid own goal to put that out.

Sunak has talked about not spending 3% on defense spending, though hasn't really talked about reducing aid to Ukraine. Their MOD Ben Wallace, very popular in Ukraine, is staying on so that's a good sign.

Also, important not to lose sight that US has been far away the biggest contributor of Ukrainian aid, and the Baltic states also pulling much more than their weight.

While I would not like it and it doesn't seem likely anyway, if UK, Germany, France and Italy all stopped sending support, Ukraine's military operations would likely continue on similarly to before.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-25-2022

(10-25-2022, 12:11 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  

(10-25-2022, 11:57 AM)GK3 Wrote:  A worthwhile article on the impact of the coming Winter fighting season.  If a country knew the importance of being prepared for Winter fighting, Russia should be at the top of the list, but seemingly it is now near the bottom.  A challenging period to say the least.
https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-general-winter-is-about-to-arrive-this-time-its-not-good-news-for-the-russian-army-193247

Keeping the NATO coaltion on the same page through the winter is going to be a major challenge.  The new UK PM appears less willing to spend on aid and there have been reports in major newspapers here that members of congress on both ends of the spectrum are growing tired of spending on aid as well.

Lots of things that can go wrong, for sure. Ukraine apparently is still short on well trained armored striking forces. Not surprising, as generating such units is time consuming and difficult even when you are not at war. However, they need to get a move on, or general Winter may indeed save the Russian hindquarters. Obviously, suffering crippling casualties is also not a good idea, so it remains to be seen what will happen here.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1584697505521901569?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1584697516863684609%7Ctwgr%5Eb4539746d11cb81bd1a84a681e32d47f7035452f%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconversation.com%2Fukraine-war-general-winter-is-about-to-arrive-this-time-its-not-good-news-for-the-russian-army-193247

Go down that road to Beryslav as fast as possible. That is where Ukraine will win or lose this piece of the war. Cut off Mylove and get on the left bank of the river at Nova Kakhovka. I am a broken record.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-25-2022

While it will rain in Kherson on Wednesday, the following 10 days look to be free of rain and not too cold. Ukraine is getting a break here. It is giving them the opportunity to advance before it gets muddy, wet, and cold. When the rain really gets going, moving material and people will become more difficult. Then Winter sets in. Literally, Ukraine needs to make hay while the sun shines.

On a different topic, I think that the "leadership" (such as it may be) in all the NATO countries have to take great pains to make utterly clear to their populations what the consequences of a Russian victory in Ukraine would be. Had Ukraine quickly caved in to Russia, it would have been horrible for Ukraine. It would have also raised serious questions about NATO's ability to deter Russian aggression. This would have been very "bad". That didn't happen.

However, Ukraine did fight back (bravely and successfully in many cases) and "the west", NATO, did step up to help Ukraine. In so doing, that greatly "upped the ante" on the outcome of this war. If, at this point, Russia succeeds in defeating Ukraine, despite all the effort, suffering, and pain Ukraine has endured, and despite the efforts of NATO, the message will be clear. NATO cannot deter Russia and doesn't have the will to defeat them. Some may say NATO wasn't directly involved, but that is a difference without a distinction. Every one of the ex Warsaw Pact countries will feel threatened, and may seek accommodation with Russia. They will have no confidence that Article 5 will protect them. China will see this as proof aggression works and Taiwan will receive it sooner rather than later. All the weaknesses exposed in the Russian military won't matter. "Just win baby".

The time to decide whether to help Ukraine was back on Feb 24. That decision has been made. Backing away from it would be an unmitigated disaster for the US, NATO and probably the world at large (and Ukraine, but that isn't the point). You can appease a Dictator and survive it (Czechoslovakia in 1938). It may not be a good idea, but you can do it. NATO decided not to do it. The die is cast. We have to "win" this one, and backing away is no longer an option.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 10-26-2022

(10-25-2022, 08:34 PM)Goose Wrote:  While it will rain in Kherson on Wednesday, the following 10 days look to be free of rain and not too cold. Ukraine is getting a break here. It is giving them the opportunity to advance before it gets muddy, wet, and cold. When the rain really gets going, moving material and people will become more difficult. Then Winter sets in. Literally, Ukraine needs to make hay while the sun shines.

On a different topic, I think that the "leadership" (such as it may be) in all the NATO countries have to take great pains to make utterly clear to their populations what the consequences of a Russian victory in Ukraine would be. Had Ukraine quickly caved in to Russia, it would have been horrible for Ukraine. It would have also raised serious questions about NATO's ability to deter Russian aggression. This would have been very "bad". That didn't happen.

However, Ukraine did fight back (bravely and successfully in many cases) and "the west", NATO, did step up to help Ukraine. In so doing, that greatly "upped the ante" on the outcome of this war. If, at this point, Russia succeeds in defeating Ukraine, despite all the effort, suffering, and pain Ukraine has endured, and despite the efforts of NATO, the message will be clear. NATO cannot deter Russia and doesn't have the will to defeat them. Some may say NATO wasn't directly involved, but that is a difference without a distinction. Every one of the ex Warsaw Pact countries will feel threatened, and may seek accommodation with Russia. They will have no confidence that Article 5 will protect them. China will see this as proof aggression works and Taiwan will receive it sooner rather than later. All the weaknesses exposed in the Russian military won't matter. "Just win baby".

The time to decide whether to help Ukraine was back on Feb 24. That decision has been made. Backing away from it would be an unmitigated disaster for the US, NATO and probably the world at large (and Ukraine, but that isn't the point). You can appease a Dictator and survive it (Czechoslovakia in 1938). It may not be a good idea, but you can do it. NATO decided not to do it. The die is cast. We have to "win" this one, and backing away is no longer an option.

You can't say it better than you said it in your last paragraph.  Copy should be sent to all Heads of State in NATO countries.  Eureopean Countries, particularly those who were in the old Soviet Bloc don't need to be reminded too much about how things would be with Russia back in control.  I think you can put Finland in that group for sure.  Turkey is an enigma.  Country finds itself on the far edge of NATO Europe with the nut cases of the Middle East and former Soviet block countries to the North East as its neighbors.  Trying to keep everyone happy is not always the best policy.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-26-2022

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-bound-nasams-us-hands-193730212.html
Probably everybody has seen this already, but the two NASAMS have been delivered to the US government. They apparently are new production, not refurbished older systems. It is almost certain they were re-directed from WIP. The follow-on systems are undoubtedly quite a bit further out, although one would hope the US has prioritized their production (although I wouldn't bet on that).

We will soon see these systems in action somewhere, as Ukraine often tries to demonstrate early results with whatever new deliveries they receive. It will probably be a while before we really know how much good they are doing. I expect Russia is slowing down their Kalibr K-555 strikes anyway, but we shall see.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 10-26-2022

After all the rumors a week ago of them evacuating the city, it seems Russia is again intent on defending the Kherson.  As Goose mentioned previously, there is a window of attack now, so we will see if Ukraine makes a big push.  Despite their supply issues, Russia has defended Kherson very well, taking advantage of the geography.  Hopefully Russian defenses collapse, I'm guessing western intelligence is helping plan the attack.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 10-26-2022

Sunak and Meloni both gave speeches yesterday in which they committed to continuity in supporting Ukraine.  Even if the military aid doesn't flow as freely, the vote of support from Sunak and Meloni is significant, especially considering the doubts that many have expressed regarding their attitude toward the Russia/Ukraine conflict.  Let's hope they, and their peers throughout the EU, at least stand firm on sanctions when the energy crisis hits this winter.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-27-2022

There are reports in the Ukrainian press that Russia has not sufficiently mined the Kakhovka dam at this moment to destroy it.
https://www.yahoo.com/now/russians-t-blow-kakhovka-hpp-152600938.html
Hopefully this is 1)true and 2)durable. Nova Kakhovka is still "the place to be" for Ukraine IMHO.

There are also reports that Russia does in fact intend to defend Kherson city. These reports are subsequent to many reports to the contrary. I suspect Russia doesn't really know what they "intend to do" in Kherson city. Politically Putin really wants to hold on to it. Giving it up is a big black eye. If Russia ever intends to take Odessa, they must have it. OTOH, the tactical position there is horrible and any "reasonable" military would have evacuated it two months ago. Ukraine to this point hasn't been able to put Russia in a position where they have no choice. It is unclear that they can, although there are indications this grinding offensive will continue. As a result, things kind of hang fire, which is probably to the Russian's advantage. We shall see.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 81alum - 10-27-2022

(10-27-2022, 09:20 AM)Goose Wrote:  There are also reports that Russia does in fact intend to defend Kherson city. These reports are subsequent to many reports to the contrary. I suspect Russia doesn't really know what they "intend to do" in Kherson city. Politically Putin really wants to hold on to it. Giving it up is a big black eye. If Russia ever intends to take Odessa, they must have it. OTOH, the tactical position there is horrible and any "reasonable" military would have evacuated it two months ago. Ukraine to this point hasn't been able to put Russia in a position where they have no choice. It is unclear that they can, although there are indications this grinding offensive will continue. As a result, things kind of hang fire, which is probably to the Russian's advantage. We shall see.

I've been hearing about how untenable the situation in Kherson is for the Russians for many weeks now, and yet they are still there.  This front seems to be excruciatingly slow moving, and winter is fast approaching.  Did Ukraine miss its chance?  Or am I just impatient?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 10-27-2022

It seems clear Ukraine doesn't move until the facts suggest it will win. They take the, ready, aim, fire approach, whereas Russia is ready fire, aim.

This suggests Ukraine operates on superior intelligence and doesn't extend itself more than it can handle. It may have been a week ago that is seemed Kherson was a week away from being taken back by Ukraine, but those assertions were probably based on a belief Russia would retreat.

I can't help but think the threat to blow up the dam was a typical Russian disinformation campaign designed to get Ukraine thinking Russia was abandoning the place, but planning to destroy it, and in so doing giving Russians a chance to fortify positions. What seems to have happened is the poorly trained conscripts are being sent to the front, so the better trained forces can put up stronger lines of defense closer to the city itself.

Will be interesting from a study of war perspective, how having poorly trained and equipped forces impact holding territory. Will Ukraine route them, but use up resources that make the fight for the city tougher? Will Ukraine route them and be nothing more than a speed bumps taking Kherson? Will a sheer volume of even poorly equipped fighters slow and weaken Ukraine forces so they can't take Kherson due to Russian resistance?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-27-2022

I don’t think it is that Ukraine doesn’t move until they know they can win.  More likely, they are constantly probing Russian defenses until they find a soft spot or break through, and then they move in to capitalize.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-27-2022

Big advances over open spaces like in Kherson are a very hairy situation especially against prepared defenses. Ukraine has avoided large scale offensive actions thus far in the war likely because they wouldnt tolerate the high casualty rate that would come with them. I think Ukraine is wise to bleed Russia until a soft spot emerges even if it may also result in less Russian prisoners and a slower advance.

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