Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 10-14-2022

(10-14-2022, 06:21 PM)gocard14 Wrote:  

(10-14-2022, 06:04 PM)M T Wrote:  Reading Mick's post was sobering.  While the ultra-rich may be politically important, and much of the numbers were about businesses, I am bothered by knowing that probably the situation is tough on the general population. (Not as tough as it in Ukraine, to be sure)    That's the kind of suffering that can generate generations of animosity.  I hope the people direct it at the kind of government they have, and not let that government convince them to direct it at the rest of the world.

There are already too many instances of multi-generational conflicts in the world today. I am no expert at world history, but I feel it was wise cooperation that the world was able to recover from WWII such that within a lifetime, the countries (which I distinguish here from the governments) that lost that war once again became significant countries.

The US's 2+ party system with periodic re-grounding in scheduled elections has its downsides, but it does tend to allow questioning (and turnover) of any current governing party.  [I hope this birds-eye view of the US political system doesn't stir posts that we've agreed to keep off the CardBoard.]

Remember, it is the Russian government that started this war, not the Russian people.

The government started it, but people support it and fight in it. The whole point of sanctions is to inflict economic pain instead of fighting a war, from the oligarchs bank accounts to the price of food at the grocery store. This causes the background of popular disquiet that places the pressure on leadership to change or risk new leadership. If everything is honkydory for Your average Russian, why wouldn’t they want to continue the war indefinitely?

Its pretty apparent at this point that some of the Russian population support the war, primarily those who "benefit" from Putin, but it has also been made pretty clear a large segment doesn't support Putin's war and have taken the last stage out of Dodge City. I think we need more ways to put pressure on the Oligarchs and make this war really hurt them.
If you have spent any time in the Baltic States or Poland you would know that they see themselves as being next in line if we cave and give up the Ukraine and Putin is a bully and giving into a bully eventually costs you far more than dealing with it first time around.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 82 Card - 10-14-2022

The parts of Ukraine that Putin claims to annex are also the parts where minerals important to new technology are located.  Conceding eastern Ukraine to Russia wold solidify totalitarian control of materials important to economic development. Supporting democratic Ukraine is also in our economic interest.
Ukraine’s critical minerals and Europe’s energy transition: A motivation for Russian aggression?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-14-2022

The thing about the Russian people supporting the war is that when they were polled and were asked if they would support Russia blowing up Ukraine with a nuclear weapon, and when they were asked if they would support Russia withdrawing from Ukraine, a majority of Russians support both.  Basically they’ve given up agency.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-14-2022

(10-14-2022, 08:30 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Basically they’ve given up agency.

BC

Beg to differ. They feel they never had it. IMHO, I think they are correct.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 10-15-2022

Perspective gained by understanding history... The United States wasn't just magically born. It was formed by brave people who risked and gave their lives to gain independence from a group of men who they no longer wanted controlling their lives. Standing up against the British literally required men willing to accept being shot at close range. And to be clear, the American revolutionaries couldn't have ultimately defeated the British without a lot of help from British enemies France, Spain, and the Dutch, just like Ukraine is getting help from other countries who are enemies of Russia now.

I'm not going to sit here in my comfort and claim I am or would be capable of taking bullets like those who gave their lives to start the United States of America did, but the fact is I don't need to because others have before me. This is why I A) respect the hell out of everyone who gave their lives so I could have my comfort and freedoms and B) have zero sympathy for Russian people who allow themselves to be subjugated by a group of men controlling their lives in ways they don't like.

It's real simple. Russians allow their government to be in power. If they want freedom, they can put their lives on the line like the American Revolutionaries did. Look at Iranian women now fighting back against the repressive Iranian government. They know they have to risk their lives to get their freedom back, and are doing so.  Why should anyone feel the Russian people are exempt from having to make the hard sacrifices required to rid themselves of tyranny? 

But we know everyone has a breaking point. So it makes 100% logical sense for countries being harmed by Russia's belligerent and illegal activities to increase the cost and pain of Russia's war on the Russian people until they reach the point they break and revolt against the group of men responsible for their lives - and the lives of billions of other people - being made so miserable.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 10-15-2022

(10-15-2022, 07:28 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Perspective gained by understanding history... The United States wasn't just magically born. It was formed by brave people who risked and gave their lives to gain independence from a group of men who they no longer wanted controlling their lives. Standing up against the British literally required men willing to accept being shot at close range. And to be clear, the American revolutionaries couldn't have ultimately defeated the British without a lot of help from British enemies France, Spain, and the Dutch, just like Ukraine is getting help from other countries who are enemies of Russia now.

I'm not going to sit here in my comfort and claim I am or would be capable of taking bullets like those who gave their lives to start the United States of America did, but the fact is I don't need to because others have before me. This is why I A) respect the hell out of everyone who gave their lives so I could have my comfort and freedoms and B) have zero sympathy for Russian people who allow themselves to be subjugated by a group of men controlling their lives in ways they don't like.

It's real simple. Russians allow their government to be in power. If they want freedom, they can put their lives on the line like the American Revolutionaries did. Look at Iranian women now fighting back against the repressive Iranian government. They know they have to risk their lives to get their freedom back, and are doing so.  Why should anyone feel the Russian people are exempt from having to make the hard sacrifices required to rid themselves of tyranny? 

But we know everyone has a breaking point. So it makes 100% logical sense for countries being harmed by Russia's belligerent and illegal activities to increase the cost and pain of Russia's war on the Russian people until they reach the point they break and revolt against the group of men responsible for their lives - and the lives of billions of other people - being made so miserable.

A nice piece OF.  I wish I knew more about Russian History.  Have they ever had a real functioning Democracy for any length of time?  I really respect what the people in Iran are doing and certainly wish Eisenhower had told Churchill to go pound sand when he asked us to bail out what is now BP by overthrowing the new elected democratic government of Iran.  Not to say it made any difference, but I would bet that if we had supported the new government things would be much different today. History is full of what if's one thing that has always made it interesting to me.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 81alum - 10-15-2022

(10-15-2022, 07:28 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:   And to be clear, the American revolutionaries couldn't have ultimately defeated the British without a lot of help from British enemies France, Spain, and the Dutch, just like Ukraine is getting help from other countries who are enemies of Russia now.

Yes.  If you count naval forces, our French allies outnumbered the Americans at the Battle of Yorktown.  But we paid them back, with interest, in WWI and WWII.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-15-2022

What does this say about Russian recruitment strategy…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1581375747637137408?s=61&t=e6SQDvIPLQS73yZrtJzPLg[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Nan3cy - 10-15-2022

On a visit to Riga, Latvia in 2014, we went to the Latvian “Museum of the Occupation.” I was struck by the extent to which the Latvians do not differentiate between the German occupation and the Soviet one (at least at this museum). I’d be willing to bet that whatever Latvians there are who are pro-Russian are people whose grandparents were settled in Latvia during Stalin’s exercise in shuffling people around. One of the most affecting exhibits in the museum was one about Latvians being rounded up in the middle of the night in 1949 and sent off to Siberia so that Russians could be moved into Latvia.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 10-15-2022

(10-15-2022, 01:31 PM)Nan3cy Wrote:  On a visit to Riga, Latvia in 2014, we went to the Latvian “Museum of the Occupation.” I was struck by the extent to which the Latvians do not differentiate between the German occupation and the Soviet one (at least at this museum). I’d be willing to bet that whatever Latvians there are who are pro-Russian are people whose grandparents were settled in Latvia during Stalin’s exercise in shuffling people around. One of the most affecting exhibits in the museum was one about Latvians being rounded up in the middle of the night in 1949 and sent off to Siberia so that Russians could be moved into Latvia.

The Poles have not forgotten the Katyn Massacre either.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 10-15-2022

(10-15-2022, 10:20 AM)81alum Wrote:  

(10-15-2022, 07:28 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:   And to be clear, the American revolutionaries couldn't have ultimately defeated the British without a lot of help from British enemies France, Spain, and the Dutch, just like Ukraine is getting help from other countries who are enemies of Russia now.

Yes.  If you count naval forces, our French allies outnumbered the Americans at the Battle of Yorktown.  But we paid them back, with interest, in WWI and WWII.

The French brought 63 ships and 12,000 soldiers. The French provided 1.3 billion livres over the course of the war. 90% of the American soldiers at Saratoga had French arms and ammunition. The French brokered the peace treaty, and the French paved the way for other European countries to recognize America as a separate nation.

The English lost 24,000 killed or dead of disease in the American revolution. The colonists lost about the same, 6,800 killed and another 17,000 +/- to disease, about 2/3 of whom were English prisoners. 2,112 of the 12k French soldiers died on American soil. And the Hessians lost 1,200 men, with another 6,354 dead of disease, and 5,500 who deserted and settled in America. 

Not too many have died supporting the Ukrainians.  It remains to be seen how many Russians answer the call.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 10-16-2022

I had lunch yesterday with a lawyer friend who has a client from Russia. His wife is a top manager at a museum in a big Russian city and his adult son lived there as well before going to Paris a couple weeks ago to avoid conscription. Last week the son applied for a 3-year visa to the United States. The next day he got called saying something was holding it up. He's thinking "does the Russian government know I'm trying to leave?" As my friend told me, it gets worse.

On Thursday, the son got a call from one of his neighbors saying a uniformed Russian military officer and someone in plain clothes came to his place the other day. Now there is fear the mother and a daughter who lives with her might be at risk. The client is wondering if he should buy a place in Paris and basically seek asylum for he and his son who he knows can't go back to Russia. If he goes back himself he might be at risk, but even if he is fine, he likely won't get his wife and daughter out of Russia. 

I was told men that look like they are of fighting age are basically being kidnapped off the streets and forced to join the war effort. It seems with the economic catastrophe setting in on Russians from sanctions, the mass exodus of people from the country, the mounting war losses, poor morale of those who are suppose to be fighting, Putin's government is on a path to implosion.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 10-16-2022

IMHO, no asylum for Russians who don’t want to fight. They should be forced to stay and either fight or protest. Asylum is a political tool as much as a humanitarian one, and it doesn’t benefit us to have all the people who oppose the war leave.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-16-2022

HARM missiles are taking the fight to Russia..

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1581585013295890433?s=46&t=obD9M2ZT_fx8iy9fB9g4fw[/tweet]

The radar operator firing the cruise missiles got a nasty surprise.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-16-2022

(10-16-2022, 02:58 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  HARM missiles are taking the fight to Russia..

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1581585013295890433?s=46&t=obD9M2ZT_fx8iy9fB9g4fw

The radar operator firing the cruise missiles got a nasty surprise.

BC

No, the air defense system operator firing SAMs got a nasty surprise. Cruise missiles like the Kalibr don't benefit from radar. They fly to a GPS/GLONASS fix. DEAD plan in action.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 10-16-2022

(10-16-2022, 02:58 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  HARM missiles are taking the fight to Russia..
The radar operator firing the cruise missiles got a nasty surprise.

I can believe the active missile launched from the ground was a cruise missile (vs SAM), but I don't know that.
Why would a cruise missile need radar at the launch site (other than normal air defense)?

Smells like a HARM, but why not precision artillery?  Belogrod is 40KM from the Ukraine border (but I'm not sure where the front line might be).
It seems like radar installations at an airport would be fixed targets. Why use a HARM?

If the launcher was mobile, and several missiles were launched in a row, I could imagine pre-positioned spotters or drones could have given an accurate fix from the first launch in seconds.  But unless there was an aircraft almost on top of the base, the explosion at the launch site seems unlikely to be in reaction to the launch just seconds before.

I will appreciate someone clarifying what the video shows..

Edit: Yeah, SAMs make sense. We see 3 missile trails, not closely bunched. So the targeting radar was on, and a missile was launched that homed in on it.
(I was hoping they had taken out a cruise missile launcher.)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-16-2022

(10-16-2022, 03:22 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(10-16-2022, 02:58 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  HARM missiles are taking the fight to Russia..

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1581585013295890433?s=46&t=obD9M2ZT_fx8iy9fB9g4fw

The radar operator firing the cruise missiles got a nasty surprise.

BC

No, the air defense system operator firing SAMs got a nasty surprise. Cruise missiles like the Kalibr don't benefit from radar. They fly to a GPS/GLONASS fix. DEAD plan in action.

Appears you are correct.  My bad.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/coupsure/status/1581587811798376448?s=61&t=4-0f3fLxq0f1tf2VRdPvHQ[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-16-2022

There was HARM debris found in Belgorod, which fits the video. The Pantsir is a short range system that on paper maybe could shoot down a HARM. Unclear if that's what that last missile was trying to do or if it was shooting at whatever fired the HARM.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1581741551880876032?s=20&t=AOgpoi4PBxo26M_PBHDm0Q[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-16-2022

(10-16-2022, 03:30 PM)M T Wrote:  

(10-16-2022, 02:58 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  HARM missiles are taking the fight to Russia..
The radar operator firing the cruise missiles got a nasty surprise.

I can believe the active missile launched from the ground was a cruise missile (vs SAM), but I don't know that.
Why would a cruise missile need radar at the launch site (other than normal air defense)?

Smells like a HARM, but why not precision artillery?  Belogrod is 40KM from the Ukraine border (but I'm not sure where the front line might be).
It seems like radar installations at an airport would be fixed targets. Why use a HARM?

If the launcher was mobile, and several missiles were launched in a row, I could imagine pre-positioned spotters or drones could have given an accurate fix from the first launch in seconds.  But unless there was an aircraft almost on top of the base, the explosion at the launch site seems unlikely to be in reaction to the launch just seconds before.

I will appreciate someone clarifying what the video shows..

Edit:  Yeah, SAMs make sense.  We see 3 missile trails, not closely bunched.  So the targeting radar was on, and a missile was launched that homed in on it.
(I was hoping they had taken out a cruise missile launcher.)

In fact it is very probable the HARM was launched before the SAMS were. Here we see an example of how a HARM that possibly doesn't outrange the SAMS can still destroy the radar that controls the SAMS. From what I understand the integration of the HARMs on the MIGs is not quite as good as it is on US fighters, so it is quite probable this launch was a "pre-priefed" mission. This is especially probable since Ukraine  lost some jets to it yesterday. They had a reason. Wish I knew what type of system the Ukrainians hit. Could be a Tor or a Pantsir. I doubt an S-X00 would launch three SAMS for a single target. A Buk also might.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-16-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1581815220128792576?s=46&t=obD9M2ZT_fx8iy9fB9g4fw[/tweet]

Could be a big week for Kherson.

BC

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