Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TreesAndBirds - 10-14-2022

Agree with Palo Alto. 

Lots of negatives to this war continuing, in addition to cost to US (which is not my main concern). There is increasing world economic damage… increased gas prices/limited supply, increasing Western dependence on other unsavory gas producers,  reduced grain supplies. There is pushing Russia to ally further with the worst regimes (Iran, N. Korea). And a weakened Russia likely becoming more dependent on China (even though China’s war support has been limited). And of course the death and destruction that continued war will bring, and the possibility of nuclear weapons being used.

There is of course an argument for continued war support…especially if we believe that further Russian losses could result in Putin being deposed and a less bad leader installed. But that is a plenty risky alternative. And even if Putin is removed, a de-stabilized Russia with lots of nuclear weapons could result. 

As for TrumpCard’s comment…I think a lot of the degradation of the Russian military, both physically and psychologically, has already occurred. 

Its time to start trying to find a resolution. Its a tough balance with not rewarding aggression. But we need to start working on creative solutions.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BigJohn043 - 10-14-2022

(10-14-2022, 11:26 AM)TreesAndBirds Wrote:  Agree with Palo Alto. 

Lots of negatives to this war continuing, in addition to cost to US (which is not my main concern). There is increasing world economic damage… increased gas prices/limited supply, increasing Western dependence on other unsavory gas producers,  reduced grain supplies. There is pushing Russia to ally further with the worst regimes (Iran, N. Korea). And a weakened Russia likely becoming more dependent on China (even though China’s war support has been limited). And of course the death and destruction that continued war will bring, and the possibility of nuclear weapons being used.

There is of course an argument for continued war support…especially if we believe that further Russian losses could result in Putin being deposed and a less bad leader installed. But that is a plenty risky alternative. And even if Putin is removed, a de-stabilized Russia with lots of nuclear weapons could result. 

As for TrumpCard’s comment…I think a lot of the degradation of the Russian military, both physically and psychologically, has already occurred. 

Its time to start trying to find a resolution. Its a tough balance with not rewarding aggression. But we need to start working on creative solutions.

Putin has no interest in negotiating:  https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-says-he-sees-no-need-talks-with-biden-2022-10-14/

The best way to end this war is to help the Ukraine win quickly.  That is the only thing that will drive Putin to the negotiating table.

I am not a big believer in the Chamberlain approach....

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TreesAndBirds - 10-14-2022

We’re way past the Chamberlain approach. There has been a war transpiring for 8 months. History rhymes, but every situation is different. 

As for Putin not being willing to negotiate…here’s a different take (and yes I know the quote is from Pravda, but I think its good to read what the opposition says). 

https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/154187-zelensky_putin/

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 10-14-2022

Putin would probably be glad to hear his war of aggression is finally beginning to wear down the sensibilities of some in the West.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Softball Fan - 10-14-2022

(10-14-2022, 12:25 PM)BigJohn043 Wrote:  

(10-14-2022, 11:26 AM)TreesAndBirds Wrote:  Agree with Palo Alto. 

Lots of negatives to this war continuing, in addition to cost to US (which is not my main concern). There is increasing world economic damage… increased gas prices/limited supply, increasing Western dependence on other unsavory gas producers,  reduced grain supplies. There is pushing Russia to ally further with the worst regimes (Iran, N. Korea). And a weakened Russia likely becoming more dependent on China (even though China’s war support has been limited). And of course the death and destruction that continued war will bring, and the possibility of nuclear weapons being used.

There is of course an argument for continued war support…especially if we believe that further Russian losses could result in Putin being deposed and a less bad leader installed. But that is a plenty risky alternative. And even if Putin is removed, a de-stabilized Russia with lots of nuclear weapons could result. 

As for TrumpCard’s comment…I think a lot of the degradation of the Russian military, both physically and psychologically, has already occurred. 

Its time to start trying to find a resolution. Its a tough balance with not rewarding aggression. But we need to start working on creative solutions.

Putin has no interest in negotiating:  https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-says-he-sees-no-need-talks-with-biden-2022-10-14/

The best way to end this war is to help the Ukraine win quickly.  That is the only thing that will drive Putin to the negotiating table.

I am not a big believer in the Chamberlain approach....

IIRC Neville Chamberlain was best known for trying to avoid war.  The issue here is the end game; how to end the war.

You bring up one of the points that changed my thinking.  How is Ukraine going to "win" the war?  Are they going to destroy and conquer all of Russia?  That doesn't seem likely.  Plus I believe Putin will use tactical nukes before he would accept defeat.  What do you do about that?

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-14-2022

Re-upping.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1578417843132956675?s=46&t=yaFidfaIzSQDDpHm7BK7Ig[/tweet]

If Ukraine wants to negotiate, that’s fine; it is, after all, their country that’s been invaded and their people who are dying. But as long as they want to fight, and it seems pretty clear that they do, we should support their effort to push out the Russian invaders.  This is not about humiliating Russia or crippling the Russian military, but rather to the Ukranian right to self-determination.

Russia can end this at any point.

BC

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-14-2022

(10-14-2022, 01:45 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Re-upping.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1578417843132956675?s=46&t=yaFidfaIzSQDDpHm7BK7Ig

If Ukraine wants to negotiate, that’s fine; it is, after all, their country that’s been invaded and their people who are dying. But as long as they want to fight, and it seems pretty clear that they do, we should support their effort to push out the Russian invaders.  This is not about humiliating Russia or crippling the Russian military, but rather to the Ukranian right to self-determination.

Russia can end this at any point.

BC

True, but insufficient. It is necessary that the cost of re-starting this conflict clearly be so high that Russia will not do it. In the past, we relied on their "good will". That turned out to be folly. Many people, including most of the EU, relied on their "common sense", that Russia would not risk their economic relationship with the EU and invade Ukraine. That also turned out to be be folly. The Ukrainian right to self-determination is meaningful only if it is so prohibitively expensive that Russia cannot interfere with it. We and the EU will have to make it so. Exactly how we do that can be discussed, but it can't be paper.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-14-2022

The fastest way to end this war is to give Ukraine more and better equipment. We could stop giving them supplies tomorrow and they still would fight Russia (probably successfully for a while, and probably even more creatively and with less guardrails from the US).

If you are convinced Putin will use a tactical nuke then his propaganda is winning. There is a reason he is using people like Musk to push this message.

If Russia successfully bullies Ukraine and the west with nuclear threats, second and third order effects will pile up that are much much much much worse than some inflation or a mild recession. There will be an explosion of nuclear states and nuclear threats. Everyone in the Middle East will obtain nukes. Japan and South Korea will want nukes. China will threaten Taiwan with nukes, and maybe Taiwan will try to develop them too (Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea all possess the technical knowledge and nuclear material to develop a nuclear weapon quickly).

For a fraction of the US defense budget (and a lot of Ukrainian blood) the US has severely degraded Russian conventional capability, added Finland and Sweden to NATO, and rallied Europe around the importance of common defense. The US involvement in this war is probably the best US foreign policy in decades.

The west caved to Putin in 2014 with Crimea, and that appeasement led directly to this war with the intent of regime change. If we appease Putin again and reward this territorial aggression, it is a certainty that this conflict will continue and the breakdown of Post WW2 norms against wars of territorial conquest will lead to worse wars soon.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 10-14-2022

(10-13-2022, 12:27 PM)Goose Wrote:  [quote="GK3" pid='366158' dateline='1665686304']
4.  Last Question - How significant an impact are Western Sanctions making it for Russia?

Economic sanctions are above my pay grade. I assume they are causing problems, possibly serious ones, but I just don't know. I think the technical embargo is giving Russia fits. I just hope we are aggressively defeating their attempts to subvert it. Historically, we have been just "OK" at that, and in this case we need to be much better than that. Make sure they can't build any precision guided weapons.

Quote:

From what I gather, western economic sanctions have had the following effect:

1) Consumer and retail spending have dropped 20% in the last year.
2) There's been a mass exodus of 500k Russians to other countries, most of whom were highly skilled, educated workers.
3) There's been another mass exodus of young, Russian, conscript-age men to adjacent countries.
4) Auto sales have declined 95%.
5) Russian imports have dropped 50% from $8.1 billion in January 2022 to $3.8 billion in April 2022.
6) Between the invasion and July 31, Russian foreign exchange reserves plummeted by $75 billion. 
7) GDP is expected to drop by between 5.5% and 9%.
8) Inflation will hit 22% this year. Sectors dependent on international supply chains have increased inflation of 40% to 60%
9) Moscow's main stock index has dropped by more than 1/3rd.
10) Russia's "pivot to the East" is underway, not nearly complete. And China is buying at a $35 discount per barrel of oil.
11) Russian purchasing managers' index has dropped like a rock.
12) 1,000+ global companies representing 40% of Russian GDP have fled Russia.
13) 15,000+ Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs) have fled Russia, representing 20% of all Russians worth $30 mms. or more.
14) Russian money supply has skyrocketed as they artificially stimulate the economy.
15) Small to mid-sized Russian businesses can't get credit.

Conclusions:
1) Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas.

2) Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy

3) Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst

4) As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneouscapitalandpopulationflightinamassexodusofRussia’seconomicbase

If you really want to know, here's 48 slides that were presented yesterday on how sanctions are crippling the Russian economy, sourced by the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute.

Russian Economic Impact Slide Deck - August 2022 v6.pdf | Powered by Box

Other data above sourced by IMF, World Bank, U.S. State Department, OECD, and the YCELI.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 10-14-2022

To those who want to negotiate a settlement that ends up with Ukraine losing some of its territory, a question:

Someone kidnaps two of your children because they don't like you. You ask for both of them back and are told you can have one back but the other one must die. Do you accept that compromise?  Or, do you use everything you have to rescue both of them?

It's certifiably insane to allow someone to steal your property, and then enter into some negotiation that lets them keep some of it. They will come at you again. Moreover, the only thing Putin respects is force. That's the currency of his realm and that's what you use against him. The fact is Ukraine's allies have provided a lot of support and the ROI has been pretty damn good.  

Saw a report today that said the Donbas region is extremely vulnerable to Ukraine counterattack because the morale of the troops has been destroyed and the conscripts from the mobilization don't want to fight.  It was even reported that the Russian air strikes into Ukraine this week demoralized those troops because they were thinking "WTF are we firing these missiles into cities instead of using them to eliminate who is willing us (the Ukrainian Armed Forces)?!!?!?" And then there are the reports Kherson is soon to be re-taken by Ukraine.

I don't know what blow hards like Elon Musk are doing carrying Putin's water whining about fear of nuclear war, but I do know Russian information warfare is desperately trying to scare the world into stopping its support of Ukraine, and it joining NATO because Russia is WEAK. Anyone calling for a "negotiated settlement" now must be consuming the same fear porn about Russia as Musk. If Russia could sustain the attacks on Ukraine this week, maybe. I saw an estimate that Russia burned $100M worth of missiles this week. There was no military objective, just hope to get headlines that made Russia look way stronger than it really is and would get weaklings to say now we need to settle with Russia.  

Yes, war sucks, and yes, it's really hard to continue fighting when the damage is painful. But winners don't give up when things are tough. They don't let up until the objective is achieved.  Ukraine literally has Russia on the run. Now is the time to double down on support for Ukraine - including it joining NATO - if you really don't want this kind of shit to happen again in your lifetime. A recent poll showed Germans - who are getting crushed by energy prices worse than most thanks to Russia - want to continue supporting Ukraine because they understand the importance of smiting Russia for the damage, cost, and suffering it has caused.

Besides, Ukraine can't negotiate with Russia because it can't be trusted to abide by any agreement. I personally am impacted by this war because software developers I rely on have been unable to get things done on time, but I'm more interested in Russia losing and neutering itself as an influential power than having on time product releases.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 10-14-2022

Count me in on saying "HELL NO" to appeasement of any kind. This is for many reasons, some of which have been better stated already. 

To reward naked force with even a partial victory ensures we will see more of it in the future, so it is wrong from a utilitarian standpoint, even if stopping fighting sooner saves lives in the short term. 

It is likely politically untenable for Zelensky and couldn't be sold to the Ukranian populace (beyond maybe not reclaiming Crimea)

It is also morally wrong, for obvious reasons.  

In my opinion, the best way to "quickly" resolve this conflict is to increase support to the point where Russian victory becomes impossible and losses untenable. That line may be higher/further along then we would like, but it does exist.  I say quickly in quotes, because it will likely be quick only relative to the slower resolution of a grinding war with less western support, since clearly the Ukranians aren't rolling over even if we lessen our support. Furthermore, this conflict has made abundantly clear that any true Russia V Nato conflict would likely end exceedingly poorly for Russia, which may be the best form of deterrence. 

To those that say we can't afford it, that is absolutely ridiculous. This is the cheapest "war" our country has ever partaken in. The ukranians, with the assistance of a relatively miniscule portion of our military budget, are degrading Russia's war making capacity in a fashion far disproportionate to our investment. As morbid as it is to say, this is the best value in military spending the US has had in a LOOONG time.  That is before you consider that much of what we donated was stock that was already either out of or about to be out of active service, so "donating" it is equivalent to giving the change you find in in the couch cushions. Not only that, but we are actually economic profiteers of this conflict. As net oil exporters, our gas/oil industry is in a brobdingnagian boom. As the arsenal of democracy, military manufacturer, boom times are both now and in the near future. 

Because Russia is un-invadable for both nuclear and logistic reasons, what "victory" likely entails is pushing the Russians out of Ukraine and hopefully Crimea. Of course, that would not stop russian missle or long range fires over the border, so for the war to truly end there needs to be some form of russian acceptance.  My preferred approach would be to use western aid to push the russians out of ukraine, and then set up an internationally secured border a la Korean DMZ. It can be made clear that long range fires from Russia into Ukraine, including those that target western forces, will be responded to in kind.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-14-2022

(10-14-2022, 03:06 PM)Mick Wrote:  From what I gather, western economic sanctions have had the following effect:

1) Consumer and retail spending have dropped 20% in the last year.
2) There's been a mass exodus of 500k Russians to other countries, most of whom were highly skilled, educated workers.
3) There's been another mass exodus of young, Russian, conscript-age men to adjacent countries.
4) Auto sales have declined 95%.
5) Russian imports have dropped 50% from $8.1 billion in January 2022 to $3.8 billion in April 2022.
6) Between the invasion and July 31, Russian foreign exchange reserves plummeted by $75 billion. 
7) GDP is expected to drop by between 5.5% and 9%.
8) Inflation will hit 22% this year. Sectors dependent on international supply chains have increased inflation of 40% to 60%
9) Moscow's main stock index has dropped by more than 1/3rd.
10) Russia's "pivot to the East" is underway, not nearly complete. And China is buying at a $35 discount per barrel of oil.
11) Russian purchasing managers' index has dropped like a rock.
12) 1,000+ global companies representing 40% of Russian GDP have fled Russia.
13) 15,000+ Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs) have fled Russia, representing 20% of all Russians worth $30 mms. or more.
14) Russian money supply has skyrocketed as they artificially stimulate the economy.
15) Small to mid-sized Russian businesses can't get credit.

Conclusions:
1) Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas.

2) Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy

3) Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst

4) As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneouscapitalandpopulationflightinamassexodusofRussia’seconomicbase

If you really want to know, here's 48 slides that were presented yesterday on how sanctions are crippling the Russian economy, sourced by the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute.

Russian Economic Impact Slide Deck - August 2022 v6.pdf | Powered by Box

Other data above sourced by IMF, World Bank, U.S. State Department, OECD, and the YCELI.

Thanks for this. It does detail the significant effects of the sanctions. One would hope that at some point these effects would render the Russian state unable to function. Lets hope that point is reached soon!

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 10-14-2022

Also some crazy (alleged) footage of a soldier with a MANPAD shooting down an incoming cruise missle.  I didn't know that was even possible, but if so would have to assume it is the soldier rolling a natural 20 and being in the exact right place at the right time. 

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-manpads-video-russia

---

(10-14-2022, 03:57 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(10-14-2022, 03:06 PM)Mick Wrote:  From what I gather, western economic sanctions have had the following effect:

1) Consumer and retail spending have dropped 20% in the last year.
2) There's been a mass exodus of 500k Russians to other countries, most of whom were highly skilled, educated workers.
3) There's been another mass exodus of young, Russian, conscript-age men to adjacent countries.
4) Auto sales have declined 95%.
5) Russian imports have dropped 50% from $8.1 billion in January 2022 to $3.8 billion in April 2022.
6) Between the invasion and July 31, Russian foreign exchange reserves plummeted by $75 billion. 
7) GDP is expected to drop by between 5.5% and 9%.
8) Inflation will hit 22% this year. Sectors dependent on international supply chains have increased inflation of 40% to 60%
9) Moscow's main stock index has dropped by more than 1/3rd.
10) Russia's "pivot to the East" is underway, not nearly complete. And China is buying at a $35 discount per barrel of oil.
11) Russian purchasing managers' index has dropped like a rock.
12) 1,000+ global companies representing 40% of Russian GDP have fled Russia.
13) 15,000+ Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs) have fled Russia, representing 20% of all Russians worth $30 mms. or more.
14) Russian money supply has skyrocketed as they artificially stimulate the economy.
15) Small to mid-sized Russian businesses can't get credit.

Conclusions:
1) Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas.

2) Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy

3) Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst

4) As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneouscapitalandpopulationflightinamassexodusofRussia’seconomicbase

If you really want to know, here's 48 slides that were presented yesterday on how sanctions are crippling the Russian economy, sourced by the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute.

Russian Economic Impact Slide Deck - August 2022 v6.pdf | Powered by Box

Other data above sourced by IMF, World Bank, U.S. State Department, OECD, and the YCELI.

Thanks for this. It does detail the significant effects of the sanctions. One would hope that at some point these effects would render the Russian state unable to function. Lets hope that point is reached soon!

I'm reminded of a section of one of my favorite books (the foundation series), where the protagonists' nation fights an enemy that is economically dependent on them.


"They’ll send their sons out in unlimited numbers to die horribly on broken spaceships.  They’ll bear up under enemy bombardment, (even) if it means that they have to live on stale bread and foul water in caves half a mile deep.  But it’s very hard to bear up under little things when the patriotic uplift of imminent danger is not present.  It’s going to be a stalemate.  There will be no (home front) casualties, no bombardments, no battles.  There will just be a knife that won’t cut, and a stove that won't cook, and a house that freezes in the winter.  It will be annoying and people will grumble.”

“I expect … a general background of grumbling and dissatisfaction which will be seized on by more important figures later on.  … The manufacturers, the factory owners, the industrialists of Korell. … the machines in the factories will one by one fail.  Those industries that we changed from first to last with our new atomic gadgets will find themselves very suddenly ruined. … at a stroke the owners of nothing but scrap machinery that won’t work.  … With the industrialist and the financier and the average man all against him, how long will the Commdor hold out?”

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-14-2022

(10-14-2022, 03:50 PM)gocard14 Wrote:  Because Russia is un-invadable for both nuclear and logistic reasons, what "victory" likely entails is pushing the Russians out of Ukraine and hopefully Crimea. Of course, that would not stop russian missle or long range fires over the border, so for the war to truly end there needs to be some form of russian acceptance.  My preferred approach would be to use western aid to push the russians out of ukraine, and then set up an internationally secured border a la Korean DMZ. It can be made clear that long range fires from Russia into Ukraine, including those that target western forces, will be responded to in kind.

I think you are basically on the right track. However, to be clear, the Korean DMZ is not internationally secured. It is secured by South Korea and the US. In theory, the UN could attempt to organize a force to do so, but it is highly probable that China, Russia, or both would veto that. It wouldn't matter anyway, as by the time such a force was created it would be all over. If we are lucky, we could get NATO participation for such a "DMZ" in Ukraine, but in fact it will be the US and Ukraine that must provide the legitimacy of the border.

Crimea is a sticking point for Ukraine. While it can be argued that it isn't "organic" to Ukraine, keeping the Black Sea available to Ukrainian traffic pretty much requires that it be Ukrainian. If it isn't, Russia can close the Sea of Azov from their own land borders. That kind of defeats a DMZ. The presence of Russian naval forces in Crimea also greatly hampers keeping a lid on confrontations between Ukraine and Russia. I don't think a  solution giving Crimea to Russia will work. Possibly making the whole of Crimea part of the DMZ and governed as an international entity might work, but sounds pretty undesirable for anybody living in Crimea (unless there were no taxes :-). Not an easy problem.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-14-2022

Here’s a creative solution for Crimea…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/klevensting/status/1580901427773198339?s=46&t=yaFidfaIzSQDDpHm7BK7Ig[/tweet]

BC

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-14-2022

(10-14-2022, 04:28 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Here’s a creative solution for Crimea…

https://twitter.com/klevensting/status/1580901427773198339?s=46&t=yaFidfaIzSQDDpHm7BK7Ig

BC

Unfortunately that was exactly the type of deal Russia had with Ukraine before 2014. That wasn't good enough for Russia, and how it went down basically demonstrated that if Ukraine didn't exclude Russia from Crimea it would be almost impossible to retain it.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Leftcoast - 10-14-2022

Negotiation, compromise, and appeasement worked so well with Russia when the seized Crimea that I can’t understand why Ukraine won’t try it again. ?

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - rudruff - 10-14-2022

The other issue is what is Ukraine going to accept for security guarantees? They can't accept a copy of the last Russian acceptance of their borders.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 10-14-2022

Reading Mick's post was sobering.  While the ultra-rich may be politically important, and much of the numbers were about businesses, I am bothered by knowing that probably the situation is tough on the general population. (Not as tough as it in Ukraine, to be sure)    That's the kind of suffering that can generate generations of animosity.  I hope the people direct it at the kind of government they have, and not let that government convince them to direct it at the rest of the world.

There are already too many instances of multi-generational conflicts in the world today. I am no expert at world history, but I feel it was wise cooperation that the world was able to recover from WWII such that within a lifetime, the countries (which I distinguish here from the governments) that lost that war once again became significant countries.

The US's 2+ party system with periodic re-grounding in scheduled elections has its downsides, but it does tend to allow questioning (and turnover) of any current governing party.  [I hope this birds-eye view of the US political system doesn't stir posts that we've agreed to keep off the CardBoard.]

Remember, it is the Russian government that started this war, not the Russian people.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 10-14-2022

(10-14-2022, 06:04 PM)M T Wrote:  Reading Mick's post was sobering.  While the ultra-rich may be politically important, and much of the numbers were about businesses, I am bothered by knowing that probably the situation is tough on the general population. (Not as tough as it in Ukraine, to be sure)    That's the kind of suffering that can generate generations of animosity.  I hope the people direct it at the kind of government they have, and not let that government convince them to direct it at the rest of the world.

There are already too many instances of multi-generational conflicts in the world today. I am no expert at world history, but I feel it was wise cooperation that the world was able to recover from WWII such that within a lifetime, the countries (which I distinguish here from the governments) that lost that war once again became significant countries.

The US's 2+ party system with periodic re-grounding in scheduled elections has its downsides, but it does tend to allow questioning (and turnover) of any current governing party.  [I hope this birds-eye view of the US political system doesn't stir posts that we've agreed to keep off the CardBoard.]

Remember, it is the Russian government that started this war, not the Russian people.

The government started it, but people support it and fight in it. The whole point of sanctions is to inflict economic pain instead of fighting a war, from the oligarchs bank accounts to the price of food at the grocery store. This causes the background of popular disquiet that places the pressure on leadership to change or risk new leadership. If everything is honkydory for Your average Russian, why wouldn’t they want to continue the war indefinitely?

---