Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-10-2022

Also, there is this to the point comment from the Finnish prime minister:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/terischultz/status/1578302424485310464?s=46&t=w6-YccXtarLgoiXro-Kmcw[/tweet]

I find demands that the “west” cowtow to Russia odd, given that we did not invade Ukraine, or force Ukraine to fight back. If Putin uses a nuclear weapon, shame on him, but in no way shape or form was he “forced” or “backed into a corner” here. This was a war  of his choosing, and he can also choose not to fight.

As for the missile strikes, I think they show why Russia is losing the war. While they strike random Ukranian targets with minimal strategic value, Ukraine continues to target Russian depots with Himars, degrading Russia’s ability to fight.  Russia is a big lumbering oaf who can only hit back harder; Ukraine may not have the sheer firepower, but it is deploying what they do have to greater effect.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 10-10-2022

(10-10-2022, 09:26 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  Also, there is this to the point comment from the Finnish prime minister:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/terischultz/status/1578302424485310464?s=46&t=w6-YccXtarLgoiXro-Kmcw[/tweet]

I find demands that the “west” cowtow to Russia odd, given that we did not invade Ukraine, or force Ukraine to fight back. If Putin uses a nuclear weapon, shame on him, but in no way shape or form was he “forced” or “backed into a corner” here. This was a war  of his choosing, and he can also choose not to fight.

As for the missile strikes, I think they show why Russia is losing the war. While they strike random Ukranian targets with minimal strategic value, Ukraine continues to target Russian depots with Himars, degrading Russia’s ability to fight.  Russia is a big lumbering oaf who can only hit back harder; Ukraine may not have the sheer firepower, but it is deploying what they do have to greater effect.

BC

Also saw an article implying Russia is trying to get Belarus involved and according to the article, 13 trains of foreign munitions will be sent from Belarus to Russia.  Hard for me to figure where Belarus got that much foreign ammunition.  I frankly don't think Putin will ever drop this crusade until somebody kills him or he is replaced by Russians who don't want war.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 10-10-2022

(09-16-2022, 11:57 AM)Treefence Wrote:  Pentagon finally gave a timeline for the first to NASAMS, they say they will be delivered within 2 months.  I'm guessing it'll be a little bit till the next 6 arrive though.

After seeing the events today, this initial delivery of NASAMS can't come fast enough.  The Biden Administration has already said that it will deliver this weapons system, so the delay is just manufacturing, not hesitancy about escalation.  In that context, I wonder whether the DoD would consider leaving its NASAMS cupboard a little bare for a few months to deliver the remaining six to Ukraine faster.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Leftcoast - 10-10-2022

Hope this comes through .... Pretty good summation of current Russian posturing.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-10-2022

I love Karl’s cartoons.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-10-2022

(10-10-2022, 11:39 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  

(09-16-2022, 11:57 AM)Treefence Wrote:  Pentagon finally gave a timeline for the first to NASAMS, they say they will be delivered within 2 months.  I'm guessing it'll be a little bit till the next 6 arrive though.

After seeing the events today, this initial delivery of NASAMS can't come fast enough.  The Biden Administration has already said that it will deliver this weapons system, so the delay is just manufacturing, not hesitancy about escalation.  In that context, I wonder whether the DoD would consider leaving its NASAMS cupboard a little bare for a few months to deliver the remaining six to Ukraine faster.

The US doesn't have many NASAMS. They were not a weapons system we chose to pursue. The only few we have "defend" Andrews AFB and "High Value" targets in Washington DC. I strongly suspect that originally when we promised to send two the thought was to send the two at Andrews. However, when that was actually examined, it was determined (by somebody) that we couldn't/shouldn't do that. So, we ended up with a procurement that will undoubtedly delay things at least six months and probably longer. IMHO every single person who works in the USAF procurement chain should be given a rifle and sent to Ukraine. They will be told the ammunition for the rifle is "being procured". I admit I am biased.

Realistically speaking, the NASAMS is a medium altitude point defense weapon. It will be useful in Ukraine, but far from a country-wide or city wide panacea. Ukraine's S-300s are arguably just as effective. In both cases the problem is detecting the threat in a geometry that the SAM has the kinetics and quality of track to be effective.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-10-2022

Supposedly IRIS-T SAM systems from Germany will be arriving in an expedited fashion, with the first one coming in a few days.

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-quickly-send-air-defense-systems-to-ukraine/a-63397544

Ukraine is hitting cruise missiles with handheld Iglas which is just ridiculous

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1579555102767341570?s=20&t=nR_j0ITwUXTi3O0-YDj-Ww[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-10-2022

It’s HIMARS o’clock.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mucha_carlos/status/1579633262481534977?s=46&t=C-uUI4QTwBQvlruARbEDJw[/tweet]

I still can’t figure out if HIMARS is a super weapon, Ukrainians are just using it brilliantly or if Russians are just bad at war.  You would think that 8 months into the three day war that they would have learned not to run convoys out in the open where they might be sitting ducks, but here we are.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 10-10-2022

(10-10-2022, 06:01 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  It’s HIMARS o’clock.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mucha_carlos/status/1579633262481534977?s=46&t=C-uUI4QTwBQvlruARbEDJw[/tweet]

I still can’t figure out if HIMARS is a super weapon, Ukrainians are just using it brilliantly or if Russians are just bad at war.  You would think that 8 months into the three day war that they would have learned not to run convoys out in the open where they might be sitting ducks, but here we are.

BC

Clearly a pretty good weapon, but what else are the Russians going to do, send one truck at a time at 10 min intervals?  Assuming the Ukrainians are using a done with IR or NV  capability, it won't make much differenced if they send them day or night.  More they blowup the better.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-10-2022

HIMARS is a great weapon, but when paired with the real-time drone reconnaissance from some pretty cheap and basic drones it can be used to snipe like this. Russia clearly is struggling with the very widespread Ukrainian drone coverage all over the front, but I do wonder how good the US capability would be. Seems like drone offense is much better than drone defense at this technological moment.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Leftcoast - 10-10-2022

(10-10-2022, 06:41 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  HIMARS is a great weapon, but when paired with the real-time drone reconnaissance from some pretty cheap and basic drones it can be used to snipe like this. Russia clearly is struggling with the very widespread Ukrainian drone coverage all over the front, but I do wonder how good the US capability would be. Seems like drone offense is much better than drone defense at this technological moment.

The implications of tactics used by Ukraine for asymmetrical warfare are enormous - this will not always be great news for the USA.

For instance, I'm wondering at what point aircraft carriers become vulnerable as well as our own high dollar MBTs.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-10-2022

(10-10-2022, 06:41 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  HIMARS is a great weapon, but when paired with the real-time drone reconnaissance from some pretty cheap and basic drones it can be used to snipe like this. Russia clearly is struggling with the very widespread Ukrainian drone coverage all over the front, but I do wonder how good the US capability would be. Seems like drone offense is much better than drone defense at this technological moment.

The US drone capability would be adequate to do what Ukraine is doing. One can argue ours are "better" (and they certainly cost more) but we can do the same. The asymmetry in the Ukraine vs. Russia front is that 1) Russia doesn't have a drone capability to go "find" the HIMARS, and 2) even if they did, Russia doesn't have a precision weapon that can hit the HIMARS. Russian tube artillery (and NATO tube artillery) does not have the range. The SMERCH and Tornado-S systems in theory have available precision guided rockets similar to a HIMARS. However, it appears Russia has very few of these missiles. That explains the virtually invulnerability of the HIMARS to date.

In theory, Ukraine, Russia, and NATO also have the ability to attack the HIMARS systems with aircraft. So far, Russia hasn't succeeded in doing this. Even more stunning, Russia has not attempted to deal with Ukrainian drones using aircraft. They have planes that are not doing anything else. They are available. They have Mainstay aircraft that can "see" the TB2 class drones. We know this because they did it in Syria. The convoys being attacked are in Russian controlled areas so the Russian aircraft don't have to worry about MANPADS. They are far enough away from the Ukrainian Air Defense Zone that they don't have to worry much about S-X00 systems or the like. So why doesn't each convoy have an airborne escort to destroy/chase away the drones? Because Russians suck at war?? Probably more that Russia hasn't trained to do this and are too rigid to improvise. Also, the Army hasn't figured out yet who in the Air Force they should talk to :-).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 10-10-2022

(10-10-2022, 08:21 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(10-10-2022, 06:41 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  HIMARS is a great weapon, but when paired with the real-time drone reconnaissance from some pretty cheap and basic drones it can be used to snipe like this. Russia clearly is struggling with the very widespread Ukrainian drone coverage all over the front, but I do wonder how good the US capability would be. Seems like drone offense is much better than drone defense at this technological moment.

The US drone capability would be adequate to do what Ukraine is doing. One can argue ours are "better" (and they certainly cost more) but we can do the same. The asymmetry in the Ukraine vs. Russia front is that 1) Russia doesn't have a drone capability to go "find" the HIMARS, and 2) even if they did, Russia doesn't have a precision weapon that can hit the HIMARS. Russian tube artillery (and NATO tube artillery) does not have the range. The SMERCH and Tornado-S systems in theory have available precision guided rockets similar to a HIMARS. However, it appears Russia has very few of these missiles. That explains the virtually invulnerability of the HIMARS to date.

In theory, Ukraine, Russia, and NATO also have the ability to attack the HIMARS systems with aircraft. So far, Russia hasn't succeeded in doing this. Even more stunning, Russia has not attempted to deal with Ukrainian drones using aircraft. They have planes that are not doing anything else. They are available. They have Mainstay aircraft that can "see" the TB2 class drones. We know this because they did it in Syria. The convoys being attacked are in Russian controlled areas so the Russian aircraft don't have to worry about MANPADS. They are far enough away from the Ukrainian Air Defense Zone that they don't have to worry much about S-X00 systems or the like. So why doesn't each convoy have an airborne escort to destroy/chase away the drones? Because Russians suck at war?? Probably more that Russia hasn't trained to do this and are too rigid to improvise. Also, the Army hasn't figured out yet who in the Air Force they should talk to :-).

What would our aircraft be doing differently in CAP? It seems unsustainable to use a million dollar AMRAAM to shoot down 4 figure cost surveillance/targeting drones.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-10-2022

(10-10-2022, 06:33 PM)GK3 Wrote:  Clearly a pretty good weapon, but what else are the Russians going to do, send one truck at a time at 10 min intervals?  Assuming the Ukrainians are using a done with IR or NV  capability, it won't make much differenced if they send them day or night.  More they blowup the better.

Well, there are a couple of obvious problems here the Russians could reduce or eliminate. First, their tactical separation is terrible. They are nose-to-tail. No need for that. They should maintain separation so that it takes one missile per truck. They are in Russian controlled territory so they don't need to worry about ambushes. Tactical separation can also protect them from mines if any are present.

More importantly, why are they stopping on the road? They weren't refueling or anything like that. Simply don't stop. Stupid beyond words. If one vehicle has an issue and has to stop, fine. Every body else keeps going. Makes the targeting much more difficult. To compound the problem, they could vary the speed of the convoy every few minutes. HIMARS can't be re-targeted in flight. Yes, doing this would be a pain in the ass but it beats getting killed.

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https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/u-troops-t-help-ukrainians-215300465.html
This is a very interesting approach to maintaining many of the more complex weapons systems. In this case, it appears the US has developed an intelligent low-cost solution to a potentially big problem. Lets hope it keeps working well.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-10-2022

(10-10-2022, 08:45 PM)gocard14 Wrote:  

(10-10-2022, 08:21 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(10-10-2022, 06:41 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  HIMARS is a great weapon, but when paired with the real-time drone reconnaissance from some pretty cheap and basic drones it can be used to snipe like this. Russia clearly is struggling with the very widespread Ukrainian drone coverage all over the front, but I do wonder how good the US capability would be. Seems like drone offense is much better than drone defense at this technological moment.

The US drone capability would be adequate to do what Ukraine is doing. One can argue ours are "better" (and they certainly cost more) but we can do the same. The asymmetry in the Ukraine vs. Russia front is that 1) Russia doesn't have a drone capability to go "find" the HIMARS, and 2) even if they did, Russia doesn't have a precision weapon that can hit the HIMARS. Russian tube artillery (and NATO tube artillery) does not have the range. The SMERCH and Tornado-S systems in theory have available precision guided rockets similar to a HIMARS. However, it appears Russia has very few of these missiles. That explains the virtually invulnerability of the HIMARS to date.

In theory, Ukraine, Russia, and NATO also have the ability to attack the HIMARS systems with aircraft. So far, Russia hasn't succeeded in doing this. Even more stunning, Russia has not attempted to deal with Ukrainian drones using aircraft. They have planes that are not doing anything else. They are available. They have Mainstay aircraft that can "see" the TB2 class drones. We know this because they did it in Syria. The convoys being attacked are in Russian controlled areas so the Russian aircraft don't have to worry about MANPADS. They are far enough away from the Ukrainian Air Defense Zone that they don't have to worry much about S-X00 systems or the like. So why doesn't each convoy have an airborne escort to destroy/chase away the drones? Because Russians suck at war?? Probably more that Russia hasn't trained to do this and are too rigid to improvise. Also, the Army hasn't figured out yet who in the Air Force they should talk to :-).

What would our aircraft be doing differently in CAP? It seems unsustainable to use a million dollar AMRAAM to shoot down 4 figure cost surveillance/targeting drones.

Well, drones don't evade well and aren't very fast. Guns would work fine. That isn't the big cost driver though. The operating costs of the aircraft would be quite large. However, if you don't have any other viable approach and want to win the war, you pay what it costs. The Russians have all those planes and people available anyway, and right now have more fuel than they wish they did :-). It is a "sunk cost", so doing it would make sense. After a while, Ukraine would run out of drones.

The US would fight this war so differently that one doesn't know where to start. However, if we suddenly transported ourselves into the Russian situation, we would destroy the Ukrainian HIMARS. We would do that by either locating them with a drone that got lucky or by using AWACs/JSTARS/counter battery radar to find the launch point. We would use that datum to send a drone to the general area to find the HIMARS. This won't be too hard since the HIMARS has to stay on the roads and their engines will be hot from driving. Their IR signature will be considerable. Once they are found, we would use our own HIMARS (with ATACMS if they were too far away) to blow up the HIMARS. If the geometry was right, we could also use an armed drone to blow up the HIMARS and eliminate the middle man.

If necessary, since we would have complete air supremacy we could involve Tac Air to do the dirty work of shooting down Ukrainian drones and blowing up detected HIMARS units. They can use SLAMERs against the Ukrainian HIMARS in order to be "safe". Since we would know exactly where the drones were as they approached the FEBA, the zoomies wouldn't have to loiter there, they could just meet them. Saves Fuel and time. We could also use EA against the drones.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-10-2022

How easy is it to shoot down a small handheld DJI style drone from a fighter jet? I would imagine it would considerably difficult.

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The Kerch bridge is still pretty fucked up, even if Russia does have one lane of traffic and one of the railroad tracks operating. The rail track with the burned car still looks in pretty rough shape.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1579672590251364354?s=20&t=zND1GwVICg9SPNf2Cfi7ew[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 10-11-2022

(10-10-2022, 10:09 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  The Kerch bridge is still pretty fucked up, even if Russia does have one lane of traffic and one of the railroad tracks operating. The rail track with the burned car still looks in pretty rough shape.

I'm beginning to think that the diesel tanker cars on the bridge were the #1 target of the truck bomb.  The burning diesel appears to have gotten down under the concrete ties (look at the very end of the video where there seems to be no gravel between the ties) and possibly compromised the span itself.  I'd have to think trains crossing that span on the undamaged track could cause the damaged concrete & rebar to fail.  There's the weight of the train and the vibrations of the movement shaking everything up.  Could a partial failure of the damaged half lead to structural failure of the whole span?

I suppose some sort of steel structure could be attached underneath to prevent this.  Basically a new steel span underneath, attached to the undamaged spans on either side of the damaged span(s).

A corollary to this is that striking diesel tanker cars on a bridge could be done with a lower strength weapon and could cause similar problems on any bridge.  A survey (in Crimea) of train tracks that bridge a river within RPG range of a roadway might reveal some vulnerable points.   

Some comments on the tweet wonder at how this video and others were leaked.  I would imagine that the Ukrainian cyber experts are behind it, stealing it from someone's phone, or from the company doing the inspection.  But, it could have been some worker posting a video he took of the damage on social media. (If so, he may find himself drafted this week.)  The (alleged) video of the inspection of the truck before the crossing could have been taken by those that remotely set off the explosion.  While the explosion could have been triggered from anywhere in the world, likely you'd want to know when was the right time.  I'd think they were following in a car.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-11-2022

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1579809964037935105?s=20&t=JPBY1ZlKCUr1O0Jb9QlBsg[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-11-2022

(10-10-2022, 10:09 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  How easy is it to shoot down a small handheld DJI style drone from a fighter jet? I would imagine it would considerably difficult.

It is indeed very difficult. It is actually pretty difficult to even see this class of drone, and this drone is also probably flying pretty close to the ground, relatively speaking. However, these types of drones only have about a 5 mile range, which limits how much HIMARS spotting they can do. That said, a SU-25 or similar jet can easily destroy this class of drone with it's jet wash, if it can find it. Just fly by the drone at 400+ knots or so. The jet wash will send it tumbling out of control if it does not actually physically tear it apart. The shock wave is considerable. It is like hitting a wall moving toward you at 400 knots (slower the further away the "target" is). Just don't collide with the drone. You will dent your jet and might ingest some drone parts.

Quote:

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The Kerch bridge is still pretty fucked up, even if Russia does have one lane of traffic and one of the railroad tracks operating. The rail track with the burned car still looks in pretty rough shape.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1579672590251364354?s=20&t=zND1GwVICg9SPNf2Cfi7ew

(10-11-2022, 03:41 AM)M T Wrote:  I'm beginning to think that the diesel tanker cars on the bridge were the #1 target of the truck bomb.  The burning diesel appears to have gotten down under the concrete ties (look at the very end of the video where there seems to be no gravel between the ties) and possibly compromised the span itself.  I'd have to think trains crossing that span on the undamaged track could cause the damaged concrete & rebar to fail.  There's the weight of the train and the vibrations of the movement shaking everything up.  Could a partial failure of the damaged half lead to structural failure of the whole span?

I suppose some sort of steel structure could be attached underneath to prevent this.  Basically a new steel span underneath, attached to the undamaged spans on either side of the damaged span(s).

I don't see what you see. I see warped rails with concrete ties that do not appear to be cracked in pretty well compacted ballast. The adjacent track does not appear to be damaged. I think the probability of significant structural damage is low. I am sure the bridge needs to be inspected, but I doubt it is structurally affected. Obviously, I can't know that.

If I am correct, the damage can be repaired in a couple of days, assuming the railway MOW workers didn't all get drafted. Whether Russia can do that I don't know. BNSF certainly could, especially if it was on the Transcon :-).

Quote:A corollary to this is that striking diesel tanker cars on a bridge could be done with a lower strength weapon and could cause similar problems on any bridge.  A survey (in Crimea) of train tracks that bridge a river within RPG range of a roadway might reveal some vulnerable points.

Ukraine has been sabotaging Russian controlled rail lines right along. However, shooting RPGs from a moving vehicle probably carries too much risk to the shooters. They are too visible. A command detonated mine contains more explosive and makes the operator much less conspicuous. Just keep driving. 

Quote:While the explosion could have been triggered from anywhere in the world, likely you'd want to know when was the right time.  I'd think they were following in a car.

Probably not following the truck. That has some obvious and very immediate problems :-). Perhaps leading the truck and banking on the fact the Russians couldn't react fast enough to stop everybody exiting the bridge. You really don't want to get caught. You know too much, and even if you don't talk, your known associates can be found. If the train was known to be where it was in advance (perhaps because they always stop there to wait for some kind of clearance), a GPS position could have been used to set off the bomb. Not saying that was how it was done, but actually being on the bridge at the same time has lots of down sides.

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(10-11-2022, 07:27 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1579809964037935105?s=20&t=JPBY1ZlKCUr1O0Jb9QlBsg

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1579371315466993665?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1579371315466993665%7Ctwgr%5E5334db8829d3e0966e9b4b1f6898213311c4bf14%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Fukraine-situation-report-german-iris-t-slm-air-defense-system-arriving-in-days

The link above points out many of the limitations associated with these kinds of systems. It is great Ukraine is getting these missiles, but their effects will be very limited. While Israel has had some luck defending their very small country against various missile threats, even they still have problems. Ukraine is a much bigger country.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 10-11-2022

(10-11-2022, 11:01 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(10-10-2022, 10:09 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  How easy is it to shoot down a small handheld DJI style drone from a fighter jet? I would imagine it would considerably difficult.

It is indeed very difficult. It is actually pretty difficult to even see this class of drone, and this drone is also probably flying pretty close to the ground, relatively speaking. However, these types of drones only have about a 5 mile range, which limits how much HIMARS spotting they can do. That said, a SU-25 or similar jet can easily destroy this class of drone with it's jet wash, if it can find it. Just fly by the drone at 400+ knots or so. The jet wash will send it tumbling out of control if it does not actually physically tear it apart. The shock wave is considerable. It is like hitting a wall moving toward you at 400 knots (slower the further away the "target" is). Just don't collide with the drone. You will dent your jet and might ingest some drone parts.

Quote:

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The Kerch bridge is still pretty fucked up, even if Russia does have one lane of traffic and one of the railroad tracks operating. The rail track with the burned car still looks in pretty rough shape.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1579672590251364354?s=20&t=zND1GwVICg9SPNf2Cfi7ew

(10-11-2022, 03:41 AM)M T Wrote:  I'm beginning to think that the diesel tanker cars on the bridge were the #1 target of the truck bomb.  The burning diesel appears to have gotten down under the concrete ties (look at the very end of the video where there seems to be no gravel between the ties) and possibly compromised the span itself.  I'd have to think trains crossing that span on the undamaged track could cause the damaged concrete & rebar to fail.  There's the weight of the train and the vibrations of the movement shaking everything up.  Could a partial failure of the damaged half lead to structural failure of the whole span?

I suppose some sort of steel structure could be attached underneath to prevent this.  Basically a new steel span underneath, attached to the undamaged spans on either side of the damaged span(s).

I don't see what you see. I see warped rails with concrete ties that do not appear to be cracked it pretty well compacted ballast. The adjacent track does not appear to be damaged. I think the probability of significant structural damage is low. I am sure the bridge needs to be inspected, but I doubt it is structurally affected. Obviously, I can't know that.

If I am correct, the damage can be repaired in a couple of days, assuming the railway MOW workers didn't all get drafted. Whether Russia can do that I don't know. BNSF certainly could, especially if it was on the Transcon :-).

Quote:A corollary to this is that striking diesel tanker cars on a bridge could be done with a lower strength weapon and could cause similar problems on any bridge.  A survey (in Crimea) of train tracks that bridge a river within RPG range of a roadway might reveal some vulnerable points.

Ukraine has been sabotaging Russian controlled rail lines right along. However, shooting RPGs from a moving vehicle probably carries too much risk to the shooters. They are too visible. A command detonated mine contains more explosive and makes the operator much less conspicuous. Just keep driving. 

Quote:While the explosion could have been triggered from anywhere in the world, likely you'd want to know when was the right time.  I'd think they were following in a car.

Probably not following the truck. That has some obvious and very immediate problems :-). Perhaps leading the truck and banking on the fact the Russians couldn't react fast enough to stop everybody exiting the bridge. You really don't want to get caught. You know too much, and even if you don't talk, your known associates can be found. If the train was known to be where it was in advance (perhaps because they always stop there to wait for some kind of clearance), a GPS position could have been used to set off the bomb. Not saying that was how it was done, but actually being on the bridge at the same time has lots of down sides.

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(10-11-2022, 07:27 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1579809964037935105?s=20&t=JPBY1ZlKCUr1O0Jb9QlBsg

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1579371315466993665?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1579371315466993665%7Ctwgr%5E5334db8829d3e0966e9b4b1f6898213311c4bf14%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Fukraine-situation-report-german-iris-t-slm-air-defense-system-arriving-in-days

The link above points out many of the limitations associated with these kinds of systems. It is great Ukraine is getting these missiles, but their effects will be very limited. While Israel has had some luck defending their very small country against various missile threats, even they still have problems. Ukraine is a much bigger country.

Dead Men Tell No Tales

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