Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 10-07-2022

Russians have been attacking Bakhmut for months now, they will occasionally make small advances but often will have that progress countered soon after.  Most of the top people following do not believe Ukraine is anywhere close to losing the city, but the situation in that are has been tough for both sides.  I think Ukraine is defending that area with the amount of troops they think they need, which frees up troops for offensive operations in other areas.  Overall I'm not extremely concerned with that region, since progress is extremely slow at best for Russians, and as we've seen, Ukrainians can wipe out Russian progress pretty rapidly.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Hurlburt88 - 10-07-2022

I found this interesting on the supply of artillery shells
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pakistan-ukraine-and-the-race-for-third-party-ammunition/ar-AA12GzrL?cvid=2ed41e70339c42c2847276ab0eec96d1

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Leftcoast - 10-07-2022

Re: Bakhmut

One Youtube daily update I follow wondered why Russia was spending so much energy on Bakhmut while other glaring areas of need presented themselves.  One possible answer was surprising - the Wagner group is paid partially on captured land.  It's possible they are attempting to advance there (vs redeploy to help establish a new line of defense in collapsing areas) is because that's their payment structure. They must advance to maximize their pay.

In other words they are capitalists and micro-optimizing for their own profit at the expense of lives and land elsewhere.  What was that famous Marx quote on capitalists and war again?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-07-2022

lol

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/GabrielCSGavin/status/1578029422690459648?s=20&t=YGQCja3iDJlQAQXIfk-RlA[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-07-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/pjotrsauer/status/1578316714843856896?s=46&t=mJ324rjqwiR9fFWEuwHmOw[/tweet]

Are we headed towards a winter of discontent?

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-07-2022

https://us.yahoo.com/news/third-german-pzh-2000-howitzers-205300205.html
This is an issue that is going to become increasingly important in the coming months. Frankly, I am surprised things have gone as well as they have, but then again we don't have the entire story. There may be other maintenance time-bombs that we don't know about. It undoubtedly was a big ask to expect Ukraine to learn how and to do routine maintenance on these (and similar) hardware, but Ukraine has (apparently) done at least OK in that regard. However, heavy maintenance isn't something they can do, and it will be needed. Lets hope the Paladins are doing better. The PZH-2000 is a piece of gear that is relatively untried. The fact it wears out in heavy use wasn't unexpected, but it is certainly inconvenient :-).

Based on what we are seeing in Kherson it may unfortunately be that Russia has somebody running the show there that is better than up north. In so far as the retreats from the various outposts were made in order to "shorten the line", it was a wise action. The Russian milbloggers were saying the number of Russian troops was simply inadequate to the front they were asked to hold. Shortening the line in those cases may have been a necessity. Previously, Russia waited too long to do this. It may be this time they responded much better.

Shortening the line also makes delivering all kinds of supplies easier because they don't have to be moved so far. This also obviously requires less fuel, another good thing. There are two "Bad" (from Russia's point of view) things associated with this action. First, they had to abandon defensive positions they had been creating for months. It is unclear the new line actually exists or is a work in progress. In either case, it won't have the benefit of long preparation. Second, if this new line is within 20 km (or so) of Kherson and/or Nova Kakhovka it brings them within range of the Ukrainian 155 mm artillery. This fact will call into question the ability to hold the new line with supply even more difficult. We shall see.

Still no rain in the 10 day forecast. Sláva Ukrayíni!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-07-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578593471015051264?s=46&t=C0CFm0lfkDq6AWiMXeycmA[/tweet]

Things getting real on the Kerch bridge.

BC

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Bridge is toast.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ddking97/status/1578605656071774208?s=46&t=C0CFm0lfkDq6AWiMXeycmA[/tweet]

BC

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[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578600549385400320?s=46&t=C0CFm0lfkDq6AWiMXeycmA[/tweet]

BC

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[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578600549385400320?s=46&t=C0CFm0lfkDq6AWiMXeycmA[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-07-2022

Massive blow to Russian logistics, in Kherson and elsewhere. Happy Birthday putin! To me, it seems something blew up the road bridge to make it collapse, and then that blew up the train. Smells like SOF to me, but if they run a regular train schedule maybe a long range missile timed just right but would have to be a biggun!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-07-2022

And on Vladimir Putin’s 70th birthday, to boot!

[tweet]https://twitter.com/warinthefuture/status/1578617196661833733?s=46&t=C0CFm0lfkDq6AWiMXeycmA[/tweet]

BC

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[tweet]https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1578622996515737600?s=46&t=C0CFm0lfkDq6AWiMXeycmA[/tweet]

That’s cold.

BC

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(10-07-2022, 10:42 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Massive blow to Russian logistics, in Kherson and elsewhere. Happy Birthday putin! To me, it seems something blew up the road bridge to make it collapse, and then that blew up the train. Smells like SOF to me, but if they run a regular train schedule maybe a long range missile timed just right but would have to be a biggun!

Best guess is that they hit an oil tanker  on the rail side and that the heat from that fire buckled the road side.

BC

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(10-07-2022, 10:28 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  lol

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/GabrielCSGavin/status/1578029422690459648?s=20&t=YGQCja3iDJlQAQXIfk-RlA[/tweet]

About those Russian mapmakers…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/tatyanaodesssa/status/1578299731650174976?s=46&t=4vZHpXzLbXBNhlOpHi6GzQ[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TreesAndBirds - 10-07-2022

Probably behind a paywall but an interesting article about the effect that Himars have had on the war, and military strategy in general.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/himars-transform-battle-for-ukraine-modern-warfare-11665169716

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-07-2022

Sorry to keep posting… just an amazing story.

We are now getting some videos of the explosion, which was massive.  It does look to have started on the road side of the bridge, and you can see a truck driving before everything goes kaboom, but it is impossible to tell from the footage if that was the source of the explosion.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578633576253657089?s=46&t=4vZHpXzLbXBNhlOpHi6GzQ[/tweet]

Speculation in the comments was that it was actually a boat under the bridge that exploded.  But, like, how would the Russian coast guard be that incompetent to not Koke that a Ukranian barge is sailing around Crimea towards the above sea?

However this was accomplished, it’s one of the most amazing special operations to have been pulled off in this war.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - newguy - 10-07-2022

(10-07-2022, 11:44 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Sorry to keep posting…

no need to apologize.
it's not just the bridge that has blown up......Twitter has blown up as well.
Happy 70th, Vladimir!!!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-08-2022

This thread is about ATACMS but whether the Kerch bridge was hit by ATACMS or a Ukrainian special operation, or a careless Russian smoking a cigarette (LOL), the effect is the same.  Russia is screwed in Kherson and Crimea, because all Russian rail supply lines are hittable by HIMARS (or even artillery).

[tweet]https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1572389906525130752?s=61&t=h7QkgMRsFkVHLngOBAB1fQ[/tweet]

This may have been the single most impactful event in the war since Ukrainians staving off the Russian attack on Hostomel. 

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 10-08-2022

I'm incapable of embedding a gif apparently, so jut imagine a gif of Arnold saying "The Bridge Is Out!" to Jamie Lee Curtis.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - newguy - 10-08-2022

the latest official tweet from the Ukrainian government:

https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1578634825417650176?cxt=HHwWgMCj8c-AuOgrAAAA

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-08-2022

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1578752016540913665?s=20&t=yK1X4Em7G2iDitowfbBY7A[/tweet]

Russia seems to have one lane back up. Pretty impressive TBH. They claim rail traffic will be back later today but the smoldering train wreck doesn't appear to have been moved or the structural integrity of the section assessed.

So perhaps less of a gamechanger than we'd hoped. I imagine lots of Russians in Crimea are still looking for a way out though.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 10-08-2022

My guess is whatever was responsible for the Kerch Bridge damage, is just a preview of coming attractions. Everyone now knows two things:

1. The bridge is strategically vital to Russian supply lines in Crimea
2. It is vulnerable to being destroyed

IOW, a strong argument can be made that Ukraine has set razing that bridge as a strategic imperative. The damage visited on it today might be somewhat repairable, but over the longer haul that thing will be rendered useless by Ukraine, as part of its larger military strategy.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-08-2022

I agree in part but it's seeming like this was a one-off massive truck bomb that they somehow got past the checkpoints. Will be hard to replicate.

If this was ATACMS then it would be a different story but the picture coming together makes that seem unlikely (no impact crater or debris, no active air defense, no incoming missile reported seen or heard or on video).

Unquestionably a brobdingnagian moral victory and will impact logistics probably temporarily to a degree and will require increased attention from Russia to keep it open. But I doubt Ukraine will be able to knock it out completely absent ATACMS or similar.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-08-2022

(10-08-2022, 07:55 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I agree in part but it's seeming like this was a one-off massive truck bomb that they somehow got past the checkpoints. Will be hard to replicate.

If this was ATACMS then it would be a different story but the picture coming together makes that seem unlikely (no impact crater or debris, no active air defense, no incoming missile reported seen or heard or on video).

Unquestionably a of immense proportions moral victory and will impact logistics probably temporarily to a degree and will require increased attention from Russia to keep it open. But I doubt Ukraine will be able to knock it out completely absent ATACMS or similar.

I think you are exactly correct. It was probably some kind of "IED" attack. It could have been (at least in theory) a load of fertilizer with a little "extra" dose of diesel added. Those types of bombs can be quite effective, as we know from experience right here in the US. The bridge can be fixed, but even that takes resources and time.

I would expect the next Ukrainian effort will be to blow up the railway tunnel on the Crimean side of the bridge. That is actually a better target, as collapsing the tunnel is easier than dropping the bridge and is much harder to quickly repair. Harder to do because you have to get the explosive either into the tunnel or on a train. I fully expect Ukraine can do that though, probably a detonator on an Russian ammunition train.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 10-08-2022

(10-08-2022, 08:22 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(10-08-2022, 07:55 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I agree in part but it's seeming like this was a one-off massive truck bomb that they somehow got past the checkpoints. Will be hard to replicate.

If this was ATACMS then it would be a different story but the picture coming together makes that seem unlikely (no impact crater or debris, no active air defense, no incoming missile reported seen or heard or on video).

Unquestionably a of immense proportions moral victory and will impact logistics probably temporarily to a degree and will require increased attention from Russia to keep it open. But I doubt Ukraine will be able to knock it out completely absent ATACMS or similar.

I think you are exactly correct. It was probably some kind of "IED" attack. It could have been (at least in theory) a load of fertilizer with a little "extra" dose of diesel added. Those types of bombs can be quite effective, as we know from experience right here in the US. The bridge can be fixed, but even that takes resources and time.

I would expect the next Ukrainian effort will be to blow up the railway tunnel on the Crimean side of the bridge. That is actually a better target, as collapsing the tunnel is easier than dropping the bridge and is much harder to quickly repair. Harder to do because you have to get the explosive either into the tunnel or on a train. I fully expect Ukraine can do that though, probably a detonator on an Russian ammunition train.

Does anyone have any idea how long the damage will impede the flow of manpower and supplies to the Russian Forces in Kehrson?  Some reports already have them stretched pretty thin in this regard.  It could make a new Ukrainian attack more effective.
Also for any engineers, was the fire possibly hot enough to have a significant impact on the structural integrity of the railroad bridge.  Some reports say Russians don't have enough trucks or drivers to resupply by road and absolutely have to have the railroad running.
Rewatching the NY Times footage of the explosion, not so sure the explosion didn't come from under the bridge, not on top. I say this as the car and truck behind the first pair do not seem to be hit by any significant shockwave. As big as that explostion was, there should have been some visual effect on the car and truck I would think.

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