Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-05-2022

(10-05-2022, 06:50 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Elite as related to what, exactly?

I mean if Russia's military is akin to Stanford Football, Stanford's starting defensive line is the "elite" among available Stanford footballers, but not pretty much anyone else at their level of competition. Is this "elite" unit for Russia really so compared to say the United States, Britain, Germany, China, or Ukraine? In any case, this probably doesn't bolster Russia's melting military.

https://twitter.com/MoscowTimes/status/1577615982717198340

Lots of the designations of "elite" on the web appear to be based on the name. Indeed back in the day Russian units with the name "Guards ..." were "elite". The got the best officers, the best troops, and the best training. When observed by NATO observers (official or "otherwise"), these units were good by any standard. They were still Russian, which meant they fought a certain way, but they generally didn't "fail to execute". They were always "A" units and even well above the "A" standard. One can't really compare them to NATO units because NATO troops fight differently. They must, or at least in Soviet times they had to. I expect NATO does today because the casualties numbers Ukraine is sustaining would not be politically acceptable and our smaller army couldn't sustain them very long.
 
Russian commanders did not exercise initiative. They weren't expected to or allowed to. Apparently they still don't. As was explained to me in the 70s, a war in which each NATO soldier killed two Russian soldiers before himself being killed would be a great Russian victory. If each NATO solder killed three Russian soldiers, it would be a Russian victory but close. So, we had to hope our air force was going to be really successful. Of course, at that time the Warsaw Pact could put up 4K sorties a day indefinitely and we were lucky to put up 400. Russians fight differently.

The reorganization of the Russian army into BTGs has been a disaster. Their army was always designed as a "mass" army and fought a certain way. Dividing the mass into penny packets and then trying to use these packets as if they were divisions just doesn't work. Further, the designation Guards has been handed out like a participation medal. You don't have to meet a standard to be a Guards unit any more. So, unless a unit has actually been observed training or fighting, deciding it is "elite" is impossible.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 10-05-2022

It sounds like Snihurivka isn't liberated yet, Ukrainian troops entered the town and reports are that Russian officers fled, but that Russian soldiers are still in the town, so it's contested.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-05-2022

(10-05-2022, 06:58 AM)GK3 Wrote:  to paraphrase Field Marshal von Moltke, "no plan survives first contact". 

Thought you were paraphrasing the noted American General, Mike Tyson ;)

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 10-05-2022

A question -

Can Putin survive continued failure of his Ukraine operation?  As the bodies stack up, and his forces control less and less of his "annexed" territories what happens in Russia? If he gets tossed, will we  be any better off?

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(10-05-2022, 07:44 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  

(10-05-2022, 06:58 AM)GK3 Wrote:  to paraphrase Field Marshal von Moltke, "no plan survives first contact". 

Thought you were paraphrasing the noted American General, Mike Tyson ;)

BC

Lots of people didn't survive that first contact :)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-05-2022

Smart Russians

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1577709040246947842?s=20&t=UhCTTWD8VFPECXAPcLERHQ[/tweet]

Pairs well with this WSJ article

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-new-offensive-is-fueled-by-captured-russian-weapons-11664965264

Quote:“We’ve got so many trophies that we don’t even know what to do with them,” he said. “We started off as an infantry battalion, and now we are sort of becoming a mechanized battalion.”

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-05-2022

(10-05-2022, 10:20 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Smart Russians

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1577709040246947842?s=20&t=UhCTTWD8VFPECXAPcLERHQ

Pairs well with this WSJ article

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-new-offensive-is-fueled-by-captured-russian-weapons-11664965264

Quote:“We’ve got so many trophies that we don’t even know what to do with them,” he said. “We started off as an infantry battalion, and now we are sort of becoming a mechanized battalion.”

Good! Now, change your designation so your logistics people can supply you with fuel.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-05-2022

(10-05-2022, 10:39 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(10-05-2022, 10:20 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Smart Russians

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1577709040246947842?s=20&t=UhCTTWD8VFPECXAPcLERHQ

Pairs well with this WSJ article

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-new-offensive-is-fueled-by-captured-russian-weapons-11664965264

Quote:“We’ve got so many trophies that we don’t even know what to do with them,” he said. “We started off as an infantry battalion, and now we are sort of becoming a mechanized battalion.”

Good! Now, change your designation so your logistics people can supply you with fuel.

Quote:While Ukrainian units often keep smaller captured weapons and ammunition, big-ticket items such as tanks and artillery are usually redistributed through the military’s logistics command, said Oleksiy Danilov, head of the country’s National Security and Defense Council. “But, even then, they usually stay in the same area, which is only fair,” he added.

Carpathian Sich, for example, transferred to other parts of the military captured howitzers and kept tanks for which it could find crews. The battalion commander said these tanks have now been formally allocated to the unit and are regularly supplied by the military’s logistics with ammunition and fuel, and serviced by visiting crews from Ukrainian tank plants. Ukraine was a major tank manufacturer and exporter before the war.

I would like a story on the tank factory guys running around servicing all these tanks, in due time.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1577717082569019395?s=20&t=ru-g0nsdhVcttO54vJkTSw[/tweet]

It's so funny that Russia is getting routed by a bunch of tiktok posters. Not that I'm complaining about the videos to watch, but it's pretty clear there isn't some central infosec operation, just a bunch of dudes posting their W's.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-05-2022

As I understand it, the Russian units on the right bank of the river have been living on 1/4 of their "normal" supplies of ammunition, fuel, food, and (in some places) water. The Russians largely gave up reinforcing this area a month or more ago because 1) getting troops across the river was hard, and 2) more troops need more supplies, which was impossible. It is probable that many subordinate units did not get even their 1/4 ration of fuel, because 1) Officers and men of the units the fuel passed through kept more than their share and 2) some units were not expected to move, therefore they didn't need fuel :-). The officers in Snihurivka had horded enough fuel to flee, but the troops probably didn't. They may also have no organic transport to begin with. They may very well be fighting only because they can't flee.

This Russian hodge-podge on the right bank current function is just to get in the way. It can't "stop" the Ukrainians because it can't sustain itself. God is against Putin. The 10 day weather forecast for Kherson and Nova Kakhovka is no rain. These guys are just begging to be bypassed, but I expect Ukraine just isn't wired to do that. (By now, NATO would have at least an air-head on the left bank south of Kherson.) Putin was hoping they could hold on until the weather changed. Looks like he lost that bet. Russia has transferred lots of forces into Kherson Oblast and Crimea. What are these troops doing? Is Russia building a second line of defense behind the left bank of the river? I don't know. If they aren't, they better pray the Russians in Kherson and Nova Kakhovka can hold for a while so they can build one.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-is-transferring-rosgvardiya-units-from-siberia-and-its-military-personnel-from-syria-to-ukraine-general-staff/
Different topic. Russia has admitted that the Third Corps is not able to perform the tasks assigned to it.  They have attributed that to obsolete equipment, but AFAIK third corps had better than the current Russian average. The bad news is that Russia does still have quite a few military units in other parts of the country. There are units in Siberia and even more units on the Russian east coast facing Japan and China. There are also many units all along the trans-Siberian railroad and many units facing China. Obviously, Russia wants to keep those units where they are. Many of these units are also probably not very good. One can imagine a scenario where China decides to take advantage of their absence, allied or not. Russia has already transferred Naval Infantry from the Petropavlovsk area. There is quite a bit more where that came from. So, for those of you who think Russia is going to run out of "stuff", it ain't close yet. However, it is generating ever increasing angst in the military and civilian population to do so.

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(10-05-2022, 10:52 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  

(10-05-2022, 10:39 AM)Goose Wrote:  Good! Now, change your designation so your logistics people can supply you with fuel.

Quote:While Ukrainian units often keep smaller captured weapons and ammunition, big-ticket items such as tanks and artillery are usually redistributed through the military’s logistics command, said Oleksiy Danilov, head of the country’s National Security and Defense Council. “But, even then, they usually stay in the same area, which is only fair,” he added.



Carpathian Sich, for example, transferred to other parts of the military captured howitzers and kept tanks for which it could find crews. The battalion commander said these tanks have now been formally allocated to the unit and are regularly supplied by the military’s logistics with ammunition and fuel, and serviced by visiting crews from Ukrainian tank plants. Ukraine was a major tank manufacturer and exporter before the war.

I would like a story on the tank factory guys running around servicing all these tanks, in due time.

Me too! I am glad they are following procedure and making sure they can get supplied. Somebody does have to update the TO or it won't happen. "Why does a leg outfit need diesel?"

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 10-05-2022

(10-05-2022, 11:29 AM)Goose Wrote:  As I understand it, the Russian units on the right bank of the river have been living on 1/4 of their "normal" supplies of ammunition, fuel, food, and (in some places) water. The Russians largely gave up reinforcing this area a month or more ago because 1) getting troops across the river was hard, and 2) more troops need more supplies, which was impossible. It is probable that many subordinate units did not get even their 1/4 ration of fuel, because 1) Officers and men of the units the fuel passed through kept more than their share and 2) some units were not expected to move, therefore they didn't need fuel :-). The officers in Snihurivka had horded enough fuel to flee, but the troops probably didn't. They may also have no organic transport to begin with. They may very well be fighting only because they can't flee.

This Russian hodge-podge on the right bank current function is just to get in the way. It can't "stop" the Ukrainians because it can't sustain itself. God is against Putin. The 10 day weather forecast for Kherson and Nova Kakhovka is no rain. These guys are just begging to be bypassed, but I expect Ukraine just isn't wired to do that. (By now, NATO would have at least an air-head on the left bank south of Kherson.) Putin was hoping they could hold on until the weather changed. Looks like he lost that bet. Russia has transferred lots of forces into Kherson Oblast and Crimea. What are these troops doing? Is Russia building a second line of defense behind the left bank of the river? I don't know. If they aren't, they better pray the Russians in Kherson and Nova Kakhovka can hold for a while so they can build one.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-is-transferring-rosgvardiya-units-from-siberia-and-its-military-personnel-from-syria-to-ukraine-general-staff/
Different topic. Russia has admitted that the Third Corps is not able to perform the tasks assigned to it.  They have attributed that to obsolete equipment, but AFAIK third corps had better than the current Russian average. The bad news is that Russia does still have quite a few military units in other parts of the country. There are units in Siberia and even more units on the Russian east coast facing Japan and China. There are also many units all along the trans-Siberian railroad and many units facing China. Obviously, Russia wants to keep those units where they are. Many of these units are also probably not very good. One can imagine a scenario where China decides to take advantage of their absence, allied or not. Russia has already transferred Naval Infantry from the Petropavlovsk area. There is quite a bit more where that came from. So, for those of you who think Russia is going to run out of "stuff", it ain't close yet. However, it is generating ever increasing angst in the military and civilian population to do so.

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(10-05-2022, 10:52 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  

(10-05-2022, 10:39 AM)Goose Wrote:  Good! Now, change your designation so your logistics people can supply you with fuel.

Quote:While Ukrainian units often keep smaller captured weapons and ammunition, big-ticket items such as tanks and artillery are usually redistributed through the military’s logistics command, said Oleksiy Danilov, head of the country’s National Security and Defense Council. “But, even then, they usually stay in the same area, which is only fair,” he added.



Carpathian Sich, for example, transferred to other parts of the military captured howitzers and kept tanks for which it could find crews. The battalion commander said these tanks have now been formally allocated to the unit and are regularly supplied by the military’s logistics with ammunition and fuel, and serviced by visiting crews from Ukrainian tank plants. Ukraine was a major tank manufacturer and exporter before the war.

I would like a story on the tank factory guys running around servicing all these tanks, in due time.

Me too! I am glad they are following procedure and making sure they can get supplied. Somebody does have to update the TO or it won't happen. "Why does a leg outfit need diesel?"

From the Ukrianian point of view they need the diesel to turn themselves into the 99th Motorized Infantry Battalion and further down the road to become the 99 Tank Battalion.  The Russians are happy to donate the equipment as the leave Dodge City

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-05-2022

(10-05-2022, 12:41 PM)GK3 Wrote:  From the Ukrianian point of view they need the diesel to turn themselves into the 99th Motorized Infantry Battalion and further down the road to become the 99 Tank Battalion.  The Russians are happy to donate the equipment as the leave Dodge City

No, they should remain the 99th Mech. They need to keep their unique approach to equipment acquisition. A Tank Battalion is too limiting :-). A Mechanized Infantry Battalion can have just about anything in it's TO.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 10-05-2022

(10-05-2022, 12:47 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(10-05-2022, 12:41 PM)GK3 Wrote:  From the Ukrianian point of view they need the diesel to turn themselves into the 99th Motorized Infantry Battalion and further down the road to become the 99 Tank Battalion.  The Russians are happy to donate the equipment as the leave Dodge City

No, they should remain the 99th Mech. They need to keep their unique approach to equipment acquisition. A Tank Battalion is too limiting :-). A Mechanized Infantry Battalion can have just about anything in it's TO.

Very True!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 10-06-2022

FWIW, WaPo seems to think that Russia withdrew from northwest Kherson oblast strategically and that Russia is setting up new defensive lines closer to Kherson city. It would be unfortunate if Ukraine didn’t capture some POWs and trophies like they did in Kharkiv oblast, but still better to gain the territory than not. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/05/more-strategic-russian-retreat-signals-long-fight-ahead-kherson/?itid=hp-top-table-main-t-4

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 10-06-2022

Yeah I think we are seeing significantly less vehicles than the Izium advance, and less dead bodies than the Lyman attack.  That being said, Russia lost a lot of their most fortified positions on the North Western access of Kherson Oblast, and as Goose has noted, they are hurting for supplies.  Soon enough self propelled artillery will be able to hit almost all Russian positions, and Russia will have a very tough choice to make. Russia has shown they can effectively retreat, but they haven't shown they can do that and hold a second line of defense, at least not on the Kharkiv front.  The battle for Kherson is far from over, but I'd much rather be Ukraine than Russia in that area.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-06-2022

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1578066579140608000?s=20&t=VcfiAQMeS3QSLSL2fEpLcA[/tweet]

Russia actually might be sending their best

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-06-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578118264596533248?s=46&t=_3GQ5K1LzDFWBgIJuLYTGg[/tweet]

Things that make you go hmmm.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 10-06-2022

Yeah this continues to be a theme, Russian sources including Rybar and Girkin continue to note a large force of Ukrainian troops in that area, easily enough for an offensive, but they have been saying that for a month now.  I'm guessing the links you posted mentioned this, but Zelensky favored an assault from that region, but was convinced by he his generals that they likely wouldn't be able to hold that success, and that the Izium offensive would be preferable. Granted, that could all be propaganda, as an offensive from that region could collapse Russian troops in that area, and force the Kherson group to flee towards Crimea.  It's all interesting, but hopefully what ever is next, is more great news for Ukraine.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-06-2022

Cool nighttime raid on a Russian position in the treeline. Ukrainian advantages in night vision equipment will be helpful as the days get shorter.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1578138111976030210?s=20&t=WeUB0AmtXiUh4V8W-TwBng
[/tweet]

This next one is a bit close quarters. Twitter pulled some versions of this already so dunno if this will stay up. Be careful where you take a dump when you're invading someone's county....

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1578120114947457025?s=20&t=WeUB0AmtXiUh4V8W-TwBng
[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1578130675751944198?s=20&t=btyMo4U2ftMCwMvJ6dbl0Q[/tweet]

Same video as above but with translation. The Russian claims to be a doctor.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/auto_glam/status/1578140200370216960?s=20&t=DVv_ugUNo7JJ2nFYs_OK9w[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-06-2022

Could Ukraine recapture Crimea?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/05/ukraine-could-recapture-crimea-fleeing-russians-continue-flounder/

[tweet]https://twitter.com/telegraphworld/status/1577747613927063570?s=61&t=WymFsUHo3D7WURz-TK4LeA[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 10-06-2022

I don’t know about Crimea. If Ykraine has extra troops sitting around, Bakhmut might be the place to put them. Russia made some progress there. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1578162865562959872/photo/2

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-06-2022

Well, the previous MO was to force Russia to expend lots of troops and materiel and withdraw strategically once the area is no longer defensible (think Severodonetsk). So I would fully expect Russia to achieve a Pyrrhic victory in Bakhmut.

BC

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