WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years

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WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - 81alum - 12-12-2017

We began this discussion in a different thread, but this seemed like the kind of research and discussion that deserved its own thread, just so it can be searched for and found more easily.

ESPN Recruiting Rankings:

2006: Appel 3, Hones 32, Harrison 40, Murphy 49
2007: Pedersen 4, Pohlen 22, Donaghe 45, Cimino 74
2008: Nneka 6, Boothe 41
2009: Tinkle 10, Ruef 16
2010: Chiney 1, Sara James 18, Toni Kokenis 60
2011: Orrange 15, Greenfield 31, Alex Green 49, Bonnie Samuelson 61, Erica Payne 78, Jasmine Camp was 83
2012: Beebe 13 (was our only ESPN ranked recruit that year, was injured and never played.)
2013: Erica McCall 11, Kailee Johnson 20, Karlie Samuelson 77, (Lili Thompson)
2014: Taylor Rooks 18 (hardly played before transferring), McPhee 25, Kaylee Johnson 30
2015: Sniezek 38, (Smith), (Coffee)
2016: Fingall 27, Carrington 34, Wilson 42, (Brewer)
2017: Williams 8, Dodson 11, Moschkau 41, (Jerome)
2018: Lexie Hull 16, Jenna Brown 20, (Lacie Hull)

You can see from this that our youth holds the most talent.

Notes:Â
1) None of our three foreign players were included in the ESPN ratings.Â I have seen Alanna ranked in the top ten in some other ranking systems but ESPN does not do foreign players.

2) Notable players such as Lili Thompson and Bri Roberson were not ranked in the top 100 by ESPN.

3) Sometimes the ranking underestimates a player's true potential.Â Tara can get wonderful play out of players with mediocre recruiting rankings, such as Bonnie and Karlie, Bri and Lili.Â Even McPhee and Carrington were not top-of-the-charts material in the ranking schemes and outperform some who were rated more highly.

4) Sometimes the rankings overestimate a player's projected contribution.Â Injury can have a lot to do with that.Â Beebe got injured and retired.Â Rooks did not work out and transferred.Â Sara James struggled with injuries.Â Greenfield did not fulfill her full potential until the Pac 12 tournament of her senior year.Â Kailee Johnson never quite live up to her ranking.Â Even Tinkle and Ruef somewhat underperformed their rankings, especially early in their careers.

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - TheFarm07 - 12-12-2017

For a comparison, I listed the last few national champions and their starting lineups (for the national title game) with each player's ESPN recruiting rankings:

2017: South Carolina - A'ja Wilson (1), Kaela Davis (2), Allisha Gray (7), Bianca Cuevas-Moore (35), Tyasha Harris (28)
2016: Connecticut - Breanna Stewart (1), Moriah Jefferson (2), Morgan Tuck (6), Gabby Williams (14), Kia Nurse (33)
2015: Connecticut - Breanna Stewart (1), Moriah Jefferson (2), Morgan Tuck (6), Kia Nurse (33), Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis (1)
2014: Connecticut - Breanna Stewart (1), Moriah Jefferson (2), Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis (1), Bria Hartley (14), Stefanie Dolson (39)
2013: Connecticut - Breanna Stewart (1), Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis (1), Stefanie Dolson (39), Kelly Faris (34), Caroline Doty (10)
2012: Baylor - Brittney Griner (1), Odyssey Sims (3), Destiny Williams (9), Jordan Madden (58), Kimetria Hayden (unranked)

Obviously, UConn skews this with their 4-yr run featured Breanna Stewart, but the last 6 national champions all had a #1 player, plus at least two other top-10 recruits. I could only find recruiting rankings back to the HS Class of 2007, but I am assuming Wiggins and Appel were top-10 recruits (correct me if I'm wrong). If I am right, our two national finalist teams (2008 and 2010) featured 3 Top-10 recruits (2008: Wiggins, Appel, Pedersen) and (2010: Appel, Pedersen, Nneka).

With the current #1 HS recruits currently in college, UConn has 2 of them (Karlie Lou - 2015 and Megan Walker - 2017), South Carolina (A'ja Wilson - 2014) and Baylor (Lauren Cox - 2016). It may be no surprise then that all 3 teams are top-5 in the country and consider national title contenders

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - BobK - 12-12-2017

For the record Bonnie was about 24 prior to the great ð³

So will explain 81 when I see you again but no point on an open board as respect the people involved

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - 2006alum - 12-13-2017

Thanks for putting this together, 81! One amendment: I think ESPN had Pedersen at no. 4.

It will be really interesting to see what our team is like in two years' time, given that the raw talent is largely collected in the younger half of our team.

One other thought: do we think the expansion of the WNBA and the increasing prominence of women's pro basketball overseas affects things? At the margins, I think the more likely it is that a top recruit thinks she could make a career out of basketball (playing, coaching, commentating, etc.), the less likely she is to be swayed by the "40 year decision" pitch. I think that's part of why we have a really hard time landing top recruits in MBB - even if they could get admitted, the top ones have such high prospects in the NBA that they might not care as much about the benefits of Stanford, and they're unlikely to stay long enough to graduate anyway. Someone like KLS, for example, can probably craft a career entirely around basketball, so the tradeoff in going to UConn might not be much of one at all?

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - 81alum - 12-13-2017

(12-13-2017, 07:15 AM)2006alum link Wrote:Thanks for putting this together, 81! One amendment: I think ESPN had Pedersen at no. 4.

It will be really interesting to see what our team is like in two years' time, given that the raw talent is largely collected in the younger half of our team.

One other thought: do we think the expansion of the WNBA and the increasing prominence of women's pro basketball overseas affects things? At the margins, I think the more likely it is that a top recruit thinks she could make a career out of basketball (playing, coaching, commentating, etc.), the less likely she is to be swayed by the "40 year decision" pitch. I think that's part of why we have a really hard time landing top recruits in MBB - even if they could get admitted, the top ones have such high prospects in the NBA that they might not care as much about the benefits of Stanford, and they're unlikely to stay long enough to graduate anyway. Someone like KLS, for example, can probably craft a career entirely around basketball, so the tradeoff in going to UConn might not be much of one at all?

Thanks 2006.Â I have fixed the typo.Â

I have often wondered about that very theory--that the more Tara succeeds in bringing WBB into greater parity with MBB the less "special" Stanford might seem to recruits.Â I don't know.Â We have lost Katie Lou Samuelson and Mikaela Pivec and a few others rumored to have backed away, but the truth is none of us (with the possible exception of Bob) really knows to what extent players are turning down the 40 year offer vs. concluding that they won't make it past admissions.Â 2 did.Â But this will provide fodder for speculation for a very long time.

I also think that female high school students have a lot of choices in sports these days, and I have wondered if the demographics of basketball is somehow different from the demography of women in volleyball and some other sports.Â Sort of like Stanford is reputed to have an advantage inÂ recruiting OL and TE in men's football vs. other positions.Â I think there is something to that.Â Just looking at race in women's sports would show there a big differences between the demographic make up of soccer, volleyball, and basketball, and those differences could be relevant to recruiting.Â

And WBB has simply become much more competitive.Â It is possible that today's Stanford teams would have been national champions 15 years ago, but that while we continue to attract good talent on par with our history, the rest of the game has elevated and our players are no longer at the top of all the lists.Â Maybe that is part of the answer.Â For example, it used to be that anyone who wanted to stay on the west coast for an elite level of WBB had only one choice--Stanford.Â These days there are always one or two or three other Pac 12 schools who can be competitive with us.

We seem to have one thread bemoaning the decline in our recruiting every year.Â And then somehow we wind up in the Final Four yet again.Â Frankly, it looks to me like our recruiting is improving the last couple of years, not declining.Â And if someone like Amihere gets past admissions and comes our way, we will forget all about these threads.

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - qwerty49 - 12-13-2017

This is an interesting point.Â They say you can't coach speed and size, and I would add hops to that.Â Just look at our F4 WVB team right now -- with a front line that goes 6-6, 6-6, 6-8!Â I like those three athletes and their All-American-level skills just fine where they are, but show me any WBB team that has that size.Â It used to be that multi-sport athletes were very common in HS but more and more we see premier athletes narrowing their choices at a much younger age.Â Lots of WVB players played WBB at some point, but drifted away.Â Not too many like Folkl or Yamasaki out there any more.Â Wiggins the only one I can recall choosing WBB but her WBB skills made that an easy call.

(12-13-2017, 09:01 AM)81alum link Wrote:[quote author=2006alum link=topic=18351.msg218114#msg218114 date=1513174549]

I also think that female high school students have a lot of choices in sports these days, and I have wondered if the demographics of basketball is somehow different from the demography of women in volleyball and some other sports.Â Sort of like Stanford is reputed to have an advantage inÂ recruiting OL and TE in men's football vs. other positions.Â I think there is something to that.Â Just looking at race in women's sports would show there a big differences between the demographic make up of soccer, volleyball, and basketball, and those differences could be relevant to recruiting.Â

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - BobK - 12-13-2017

I think some here think that admissions is the same for FB and other sports.Â Not true.Â I remember talking to several
coaches when it got easier, all relative outsiders, LOL, for FB and and they said, FBÂ brings
inÂ revenue our budgets are met and no more fund raising by coaches.
I agree and was pleased to hear that.

But it's damn hard for WBB and yes WVB.Â

Admitted, didn't come
Diggins
Katie Lou
Pivec
I really don't know of any this last 6-7 years.Â Could have been of course.

Not admitted or just couldn't get the App read, well one is all Pac 12 and another was a Plum of a player.Â Â And couldn't get an App well one is going to UConn next year.Â Â And in the past 7 years that number could approach 15 or so.Â

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - mbdude - 12-14-2017

Up to 2010 there may had been only 4 or 5 premier basketball schools (Stan, UConn, ND, Tenn a few). In the last few years Scarolina is a recruiting force, Baylor, many of the Pac 12 schools. Top players definitely have more options now. 349 schools have Div1 womens bb programs

As far as popularity in high schoolÂ (ours 850 enrolment),Â our girls bb team did not cut anybody this year so they could field a jv team. 5 years ago they would have had to cut people. The most popular sports are girls vb (3 teams)Â and water polo ( 3 teams). This trend is not true of every school in our geographic area but for many.

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - oldalum - 12-14-2017

Locally (Palo Alto and environs), girls basketball is a dying sport, losing ground to lacrosse, volleyball, water polo, softball and soccer.

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - 81alum - 12-14-2017

(12-14-2017, 02:11 PM)oldalum link Wrote:Locally (Palo Alto and environs), girls basketball is a dying sport, losing ground to lacrosse, volleyball, water polo, softball and soccer.

That is my impression too.Â My dentist is the LaCrosse coach here and there seems to be a lot of enthusiasm.Â If that is going on all over the wealthy suburbs of America then it is a problem for Stanford WBB.

Of course, that could be a phenomenon like gymnastics--that the clubs are still very good but the schools play second fiddle.Â That is certainly true for soccer.

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - oldalum - 12-14-2017

I was including clubs in that statement!Â :-[

For example, our local competitive basketball league (NJB; less intense than AAU) fielded 2+ girls teams per grade level 6 years ago; now only one, and no elite teams.

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - pauloalto - 12-14-2017

From an old ESPN article . . .

Jayne Appel, No. 3Â Â Â Â Â Â 2006
JJ Hones, No. 32Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2006
Michelle Harrison, No. 40Â 2006
Melanie Murphy, No. 49Â Â 2006

Kayla Pedersen, No. 4Â Â Â Â 2007
Jeanette Pohlen, No. 22Â Â 2007
Hannah Donaghe, No. 45Â 2007
Ashley Cimino, No. 74Â Â Â Â 2007Â

Nneka Ogwumike, No. 6Â Â 2008
Sarah Boothe, No. 37Â Â Â Â 2008Â

Joslyn Tinkle, No. 10Â Â Â Â 2009
Mikaela Ruef, No. 16Â Â Â Â 2009

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - mbdude - 12-14-2017

So our last recruit that had an impact as a freshman was Chiney in 2010 (Kaylee did have some inpact her freshman year but has not shown significant improvement)

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - 81alum - 12-15-2017

Amber played quite a lot as a freshman and certainly had an impact--although she was better as a sophomore.Â Lili started many games as a freshman.Â And I think before this year is out we may have two freshman starters.

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - 81alum - 12-19-2017

Thought I would total up the talent levels for each team based on those ESPN recruiting rankings.Â I will give each player 101 points - their ranking, so the number 1 player would count 100 points.Â

Adjustments:Â I did not count Beebe at all since she never played.Â I counted Rooks only her freshman year.Â I counted Ruef for 5 years.Â Our three foreign players are harder to rank since they do not appear in ESPN or PN rankings.Â I am putting Alanna Smith down as a 10 since she was a PN 5 star and there are only a dozen of those each year, Jerome down as 30 since she was more highly recruited than Moschkau who was 41, and Brewer is unranked.Â If these are bad assumptions let me know and I will change them.

Below I list the annual teams, their talent ranking by recruiting, and their win/loss records.

2009-10 870Â 36-2 runner up
2010-11 814 33-3 final four
2011-12 844 35-2 final four
2012-13 689 33-3 sweet sixteen
2013-14 793 33-4 final four
2014-15 714 26-10 sweet sixteen
2015-16 496 27-8 elite eight
2016-17 696 32-6 final four
2017-18 815 6-5 yet to be determined

What you will immediately notice is how desperate the talent situation became in 2015-16 and how much we have rebounded in the last two years, reaching levels not seen since 2011-12.Â However, most of that talent is young.

The dip was created by highly ranked recruits like Beebe and Rooks leaving for one reason or another, Chiney and Amber graduating, and our reliance on unranked recruits like Roberson and Thompson.

Obvious, this is a very imperfect measure of true talent for a whole host of reasons.Â But interesting, nonetheless.Â Whatever our problems this season, it is not because we have recruits that were judged less talented than in the past.

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - TheFarm07 - 12-19-2017

(12-19-2017, 05:06 PM)81alum link Wrote:Obvious, this is a very imperfect measure of true talent for a whole host of reasons.Â But interesting, nonetheless.Â Whatever our problems this season, it is not because we have recruits that were judged less talented than in the past.

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - 81alum - 12-19-2017

(12-19-2017, 07:39 PM)TheFarm07 link Wrote:[quote author=81alum link=topic=18351.msg218666#msg218666 date=1513728404]
Obvious, this is a very imperfect measure of true talent for a whole host of reasons.Â But interesting, nonetheless.Â Whatever our problems this season, it is not because we have recruits that were judged less talented than in the past.

For me, that's mystifying. I feel like our talent level on paper should translate in better results. Though young, Maya and Kiana are the highest-ranked recruits in one class we've had in a while.

In another post, someone mentioned being worrying about Evina Westbrook coming into town on Thursday when we couldn't even guard the WI guard effectively last night. Last year, Sabrina Ionescu as a freshman was a top concern for us when playing Oregon. Unfortunately, I don't think opposing coaches have that concern about Kiana or Maya right now. Chiney might be the last freshman to come in during her first year where opponents had to start worrying about how to gameplan against them almost immediately.
[/quote]

You are right.Â One thing that I did not mention was Kate's analysis of Dodson's improvement this year--I asked her about that at the chalk talk.Â All the coaches are of like mind that Dodson has done the most to improve of any player.Â She said that she was very very inexperienced coming in and has been becoming much more adept as the weeks go along.Â

That is something that we fans perhaps don't get or can't know--we may have two equally talented players coming in but one has much more experience playing at a sophisticated level and the other has played in a much simpler system or at a lower level of competition.Â It sounds like Dodson had a long way to go but she has been making good progress.Â Tara has compared her to a young Nneka.Â Nneka only started 14 games her freshman year, averaging 21 minutes.Â I think it will take Dodson more time to get up to her full potential than it took Nneka, and maybe she only gets to 80% of Nneka's level--but that would plenty.

Kiana Williams is in the process of becoming the threat you covet.Â Have you noticed her stop-and-pop midrange jumpers that are now coming regularly from her?Â And she is our best three point shooter not named Coffee.Â She is our 3rd leading scorer.Â The more she plays the more defenses are going to have to adjust to her.Â So far, however, I have not seen her slash to the basket.Â We will see if that is in her repertoire.Â She is 13/14 free throws and would be an absolute killer if she can slash and pick up fouls.Â She could become the next Candice and she could do it by the end of this season.

All the losing is certainly disconcerting--I don't mean to minimize it.Â But let's remember that at the end of last season we had no idea that Carrington and Williams would become major offensive powerhouses for us--their performances are very good news.Â I just hope we don't bleed out while we are waiting to get healthy and good.Â Â

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - TheFarm07 - 12-19-2017

(12-19-2017, 08:04 PM)81alum link Wrote:[quote author=TheFarm07 link=topic=18351.msg218671#msg218671 date=1513737573]
[quote author=81alum link=topic=18351.msg218666#msg218666 date=1513728404]
Obvious, this is a very imperfect measure of true talent for a whole host of reasons.Â But interesting, nonetheless.Â Whatever our problems this season, it is not because we have recruits that were judged less talented than in the past.

For me, that's mystifying. I feel like our talent level on paper should translate in better results. Though young, Maya and Kiana are the highest-ranked recruits in one class we've had in a while.

In another post, someone mentioned being worrying about Evina Westbrook coming into town on Thursday when we couldn't even guard the WI guard effectively last night. Last year, Sabrina Ionescu as a freshman was a top concern for us when playing Oregon. Unfortunately, I don't think opposing coaches have that concern about Kiana or Maya right now. Chiney might be the last freshman to come in during her first year where opponents had to start worrying about how to gameplan against them almost immediately.
[/quote]

You are right.Â One thing that I did not mention was Kate's analysis of Dodson's improvement this year--I asked her about that at the chalk talk.Â All the coaches are of like mind that Dodson has done the most to improve of any player.Â She said that she was very very inexperienced coming in and has been becoming much more adept as the weeks go along.Â

That is something that we fans perhaps don't get or can't know--we may have two equally talented players coming in but one has much more experience playing at a sophisticated level and the other has played in a much simpler system or at a lower level of competition.Â It sounds like Dodson had a long way to go but she has been making good progress.Â

Kiana Williams is in the process of becoming the threat you covet.Â Have you noticed her stop-and-pop midrange jumpers that are now coming regularly from her?Â And she is our best three point shooter not named Coffee.Â She is our 3rd leading scorer.Â The more she plays the more defenses are going to have to adjust to her.Â So far, however, I have not seen her slash to the basket.Â We will see if that is in her repertoire.

All the losing is certainly disconcerting--I don't mean to minimize it.Â But let's remember that at the end of last season we had no idea that Carrington and Williams would become major offensive powerhouses for us--their performances are very good news.Â I just hope we don't bleed out while we are waiting to get healthy and good.Â
[/quote]

Yes! I think either in last night's or Saturday's game, when Kiana had a FT line-distance jumper that hit nothing but net. It was something too rare I've seen from our team in recent seasons. If she can use her athleticism and agility to drive and work on her assists, we'll have that dominating guard that we've had to worry about but never had in recent years wearing Cardinal red.

The possible silver lining in these struggles is that without DiJonai and Brit bailing them out, like Chiney did in the 2012-13 season, which ended in the disappointing Sweet 16 loss to Georgia that year, the other players are realizing the need to step up themselves. Who knows if it will happen but they are getting the realization of the consequences if they don't far sooner than the squad 5 years ago.

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - chimera - 12-19-2017

I don't disagree with your overall point and find your analysis of recruiting helpful.Â I do think one big difference is that aside from last season, our F4 teams had superstar talent that was ranked top 5 coming in.Â My take on recruiting rankings has always been that the key is at the very, very top, like top 5.Â The players that everyone identifies as potential stars usually turn out to be stars in college.Â Not all do, of course, but when you look at POY candidates nationally, most were top recruits coming in.Â Our top 5 players recently were players like Appel, Pedersen, both Ogwumikes.Â When you dip down even a little in the recruiting rankings things become much less certain.Â Someone ranked in the 10-25 range is probably very good, but not always, and once you start getting down into the below 25 range it becomes a crap shoot, with stuff like how well the recruit fits the program, much more important.Â We've had some very good players in the 10-25 range like Tinkle, Ruef, and Pohlen, who was better than her incoming ranking, but we've had some players in that range who did not contribute that much and were never stars.Â Sara James was ranked 18th I believe by I think HoopGurlz at that time.Â Rooks was something like 20th (maybe you have her exact ranking above, while typing I am too lazy to check).Â Right now we have a few players in the 10-15 range, which is great, but none in the top 5, and that does matter.Â It seems to take longer for players other than the superstars to get rolling.

How players develop, the timing, is tricky.Â Ruef was a goofy turnover machine for the first couple of years but turned into a really great player late in her career, for instance.Â Bird did not play much her first two years, though we could see potential, and blossomed as a junior and senior.Â One difference from now is those players had people in front of them.Â We don't know if they would have developed faster if they played more earlier.Â I really like our young players overall and expect them to be inconsistent - that is the nature of things.Â Dodson and Williams have a ton of potential.Â Wilson does as well.Â Jerome has had some really good games, though not as a scorer and not so much lately.Â Carrington has surely improved a lot and has a bright future.Â I could go on.Â The thing is there is no guarantee any of these players make the jump to be consistent stars, though all could be.Â

I admit to some confusion about what is going on with Fingall.Â She did so well filling in for Kaylee last season, but tailed off late last year.Â Before the season I read some quotes from coaches that she was much improved.Â So far she has played little and has not made the leap I hoped to see.Â I really wonder what's going on there.Â

Re: WBB: Recruiting Rankings over the years - 81alum - 12-19-2017

Well, Nneka was a 6 so I think you probably mean top 10 rather than top 5.Â If that is the measure, then you are right, we are not up to where we once were.Â Giving each top ten recruit on the teamÂ 1-10 points:

2009-10 21
2010-11 23
2011-12 15
2012-13 11
2013-14 10
2014-15 0
2015-16 1
2015-17 1
2017-18 4

How I would love to have Amihere.