Call me crazy, but... - Printable Version
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Call me crazy, but... (/thread-14824.html)
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Call me crazy, but... (/thread-14824.html)
Pages:
1
2
Call me crazy, but... - Row80Critic - 11-08-2017
I have an odd spidey sense that the real Stanford football team shows up this Friday night and takes care of business. Shaw was kicking himself for some of his decisions and will uncork an offense that's been very corked lately. The players will be at home on a Friday night and know this is their do or die game -- so will play their best game of the year. Bryce will put himself back on top of the race that can't be named. A new star will emerge from among the Freshman. TV commentator will marvel at the turn-around and suddenly Stanford will be the favorite to win the North. People will come. They'll come to Palo Alto for reasons they can't even fathom. They'll turn up Galvez Street not knowing for sure why they're doing it. They'll arrive as innocent as children, longing for the past. And they'll walk out to the bleachers; sit in shirtsleeves on a perfect fall evening. They'll find they have reserved seats somewhere along one of the sidelines, where they sat when they were children and cheered their heroes. And they'll watch the game and it'll be as if they dipped themselves in magic waters. The memories will be so thick they'll have to brush them away from their faces. Game on, doggies, game on. Let's do this thing!
Re: Call me crazy, but... - qwerty49 - 11-08-2017
Good for you! I would like to mainline whatever you've got going there. ;)
Re: Call me crazy, but... - Stymie - 11-08-2017
I have this feeling too, and I'm only sipping a Mondavi Sauvignon Blanc.....
Re: Call me crazy, but... - JJJ - 11-08-2017
Love what you did with Field of Dreams.
Re: Call me crazy, but... - BostonCard - 11-08-2017
For what it is worth, Stanford was a 6 point underdog when I last looked. 6 point underdogs win about 1/3 of the time (http://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/). So, we definitely have our work cut out for us on Friday, but beating UW is not impossible.
BC
Re: Call me crazy, but... - yvonne - 11-08-2017
You're crazy.
Re: Call me crazy, but... - CornFed - 11-08-2017
"Is this heaven?"
"Nope. It's Palo Alto."
Re: Call me crazy, but... - CornFed - 11-08-2017
(11-08-2017, 07:59 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:For what it is worth, Stanford was a 6 point underdog when I last looked. 6 point underdogs win about 1/3 of the time (http://thecardboard.org/board/index.php?action=post;topic=17938.0;last_msg=211233). So, we definitely have our work cut out for us on Friday, but beating UW is not impossible.
BC
That's unfair enough. Now let's play the game.
Re: Call me crazy, but... - CornFed - 11-08-2017
(11-08-2017, 07:59 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:For what it is worth, Stanford was a 6 point underdog when I last looked. 6 point underdogs win about 1/3 of the time (http://thecardboard.org/board/index.php?action=post;topic=17938.0;last_msg=211233). So, we definitely have our work cut out for us on Friday, but beating UW is not impossible.
BC
Almost the same probability that WSU had to beat us.
Re: Call me crazy, but... - winflop - 11-08-2017
I hope you're right but I don't share your faith. I think UW is a playoff team because their talent is equal to ours and they are better coached on game day.
Re: Call me crazy, but... - stupac2 - 11-08-2017
(11-08-2017, 08:33 PM)CornFed link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17938.msg211237#msg211237 date=1510196398]
For what it is worth, Stanford was a 6 point underdog when I last looked. 6 point underdogs win about 1/3 of the time (http://thecardboard.org/board/index.php?action=post;topic=17938.0;last_msg=211233). So, we definitely have our work cut out for us on Friday, but beating UW is not impossible.
BC
Almost the same probability that WSU had to beat us.
[/quote]
Wah? WSU was favored in that game.
Re: Call me crazy, but... - Canalejas - 11-08-2017
I think Stanford was a one point favorite right before kickoff against Wazzu.
Re: Call me crazy, but... - BostonCard - 11-08-2017
By the way, I fixed the link in my earlier post. HEre's the conversion from spread to win probability.
http://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/
As for the WSU game, it started with WSU giving 1-2 points. I think at the close, we were a 1 point favorite. That's a 51% win probability. Basically, the game was a coin flip.
BC
Re: Call me crazy, but... - CornFed - 11-08-2017
(11-08-2017, 09:05 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=CornFed link=topic=17938.msg211243#msg211243 date=1510198423]
[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17938.msg211237#msg211237 date=1510196398]
For what it is worth, Stanford was a 6 point underdog when I last looked. 6 point underdogs win about 1/3 of the time (http://thecardboard.org/board/index.php?action=post;topic=17938.0;last_msg=211233). So, we definitely have our work cut out for us on Friday, but beating UW is not impossible.
BC
Almost the same probability that WSU had to beat us.
[/quote]
Wah? WSU was favored in that game.
[/quote]
We were 1.5 - 2 pt. underdogs, but the matchup predictor showed us as having a 65% chance of winning. I think I mentioned it in a thread at the time cuz it seemed kind of contradictory.
Re: Call me crazy, but... - French Rage - 11-08-2017
You're seeing a whole team of psychiatrists, aren't you?
Re: Call me crazy, but... - teejers1 - 11-09-2017
I'm with you Row80 in thinking Stanford has the horses to win the game. And it's certainly possible that they will. [BTW, all those people unexpectedly showing up for the game will be wearing purple . . . :(].
Re: Call me crazy, but... - stupac2 - 11-09-2017
(11-08-2017, 10:53 PM)CornFed link Wrote:[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=17938.msg211247#msg211247 date=1510200350]
[quote author=CornFed link=topic=17938.msg211243#msg211243 date=1510198423]
[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17938.msg211237#msg211237 date=1510196398]
For what it is worth, Stanford was a 6 point underdog when I last looked. 6 point underdogs win about 1/3 of the time (http://thecardboard.org/board/index.php?action=post;topic=17938.0;last_msg=211233). So, we definitely have our work cut out for us on Friday, but beating UW is not impossible.
BC
Almost the same probability that WSU had to beat us.
[/quote]
Wah? WSU was favored in that game.
[/quote]
We were 1.5 - 2 pt. underdogs, but the matchup predictor showed us as having a 65% chance of winning. I think I mentioned it in a thread at the time cuz it seemed kind of contradictory.
[/quote]
That was probably using FPI, which really likes us for some reason, much more than most other statistical systems. There's no way you go from a range of +3 to -1 and generate a 65% win probability.
Re: Call me crazy, but... - CornFed - 11-09-2017
Couldn't agree more, which is why I noted it.
Re: Call me crazy, but... - pcgoode - 11-09-2017
Another data point: last time the Huskies beat us at Stanford? 2007...
Re: Call me crazy, but... - ChicagoCard - 11-09-2017
(11-09-2017, 10:56 AM)pcgoode link Wrote:Another data point: last time the Huskies beat us at Stanford? 2007...
Same as N.otre Dam.e.