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WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - 81alum - 03-29-2011

We will face Texas A&M Sunday.  Most of us have been obsessing over how we would play Baylor.  So the question is: how will we play A&M?

Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - meos - 03-29-2011

Any team at this stage will make for a tough game. Perhaps a small bonus for Stanford to avoid the untouchable star, Griner, in the FF. A&M did what they had to do today, get out fast with a big lead early to make the refs irrelevant at the end.

The games are unique at this stage. Each one takes on a life of its own.
The team will need to meet the challenges as they unfold, and make the right adjustments.

Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - Viking_Guy - 03-29-2011

My opinion -- I think they may be a more difficult matchup for us than Baylor.  Yes, Griner is a beast, but as A&M showed tonight, if you can play her physically without fouling, she can and does miss shots.  She\'s not a great rebounder, especially for her size (not very soft hands), and if you force her to make a move involving putting the ball on the floor she\'s really vulnerable.

Tonight, Baylor\'s players kept trying to force the issue with her, getting the ball into the post with very little side to side movement to force the defense to rotate.  At the end of the game, in the key stretch where A&M only scored 6 points in 9 minutes, they suffered from trying to either force the ball in or making wild 1v1 drives into the paint.

And Baylor\'s free throw shooting was a big key.

As far as A&M goes, Danielle Adams, for a first team All-American, doesn\'t really impress me.  She\'s got some great moves down low, and a nice little spinning jumper, but she seems to content to hang out on the perimeter and jack up threes when she doesn\'t really make them.

That being said, Carter and Colson really concern me.  We\'ve had enough trouble guarding one quick guard, let alone two.  I\'m hoping they got the good shooting game out of their system tonight.

Might we see zone?  It\'s a possibility against A&M, who doesn\'t really have a lot of range; Carter\'s at 38% from 3, and sub Tyra White is at 39%, but Adams and Colson are both around 31%.

The far larger concern is their defense; as MT pointed out, the one biggest downside of the Gonzaga win was 18 turnovers, many of the pass to no one/lazy pass variety.  If we don\'t emphasize ball security, we let a so-so offensive team score easy transition buckets.

One thing that I am glad of: transfer Kelsey Bone is not yet eligible.  Karla Gilbert (who fouled out quickly against Griner tonight, but gave the Aggies valuable minutes) is the only active player taller than 6\'1".  Both Ogwumikes struggle against taller, longer defenders, which they shouldn\'t have to deal with.

What do I expect?  Chiney on Adams.  Nneka on Gilbert.  Kayla on Elonu, Jeanette sagging off Colson and Lindy chasing Carter.  

Offensively, MAKE ADAMS WORK.  She\'s a load at 250 lbs +, but she\'s not in very good shape (reminds me a bit of Shawntanyce Polk, may she rest in peace, with a bit more range).  If Nneka and Chiney can get down the floor early, she\'ll trail badly.

Prediction?  I\'d say, barring someone having a complete disaster of a game for Stanford or an unlikely suspect shooting the lights out for the Aggies, 60%-40% the Cardinal wins.  With each Cardinal turnover, that percentage goes down a point.  With each offensive rebound, back up a point.

Have to keep Colson and Carter out of the paint.  Rebound the heck out of the ball.  And frustrate Adams.

VG


Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - Viking_Guy - 03-29-2011

One positive and one negative.

A&M winning means we don\'t have to hear about "the Griner effect" ad nauseum for the next week.  She\'s a great physical specimen, and a potential game-changer.  But she doesn\'t move really well on defense, and has a fairly limited array of offensive moves as yet.  And, as I mentioned, for a 6\'8" player, she\'s not a great rebounder.  They were gushing tonight about her 40 point game.  Yes, against Wisconsin-Green Bay, where she had what, 7 inches on most of her defenders, and was shooting with her arms a foot clear of the defenders\' hands from about 4 feet?

OTOH, we WILL be subjected to endless stories on Maya Moore, the UConn dynasty, can she "will her team to victory" and compete with Diana Taurasi, etc.  Expect that most of the stories about the games this week will be pitched as "UConn, and of the other teams, who has the best chance to stop the Huskies?"  I\'d expect a media coverage breakdown of about 50% Huskies, 30% Stanford, 15 percent Notre Dame and 5% A&M.

VG

Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - 81alum - 03-29-2011

[Some stats for those who have not followed A&M]

Texas A&M’s normal starting lineup:

Danielle Adams,  F/C,  6\'1" Senior.   22.3 ppg,  .306 3pt%, 8.6 rpg.  Also 48 blocks on the season and a 1st team All American.

Tyra White, G, 6\'0\', Junior.  13.6 ppg, .392 3pt%, 5.2 rpg

Sydney Carter, G, 5\'6", Junior. 10.5 ppg, .380 3pt%, 3.3 rpg.  She was the star of the Baylor win with 22 points.

Adaoro Elonu, F, 6\'1", Junior.  8.5 ppg, .200 3pt%, 5.8 rpg

Sydney Colsen, PG, 5\'8", Junior, 8.0 ppg, .306 3pt%, 2.3 rpg; 210 assists to 92 turnovers.      

A&M is 8th in the nation in scoring (behind Stanford at 6th.)
A&M is 49th in defense (behind Stanford at 26th.)
A&M is 7th in scoring margin (behind Stanford at 3rd.)
A&M is 12th in field goal % (behind Stanford at 3rd.)
A&M is 19th in rebounding margin (behind Stanford at 6th.)
A&M is 12th in assists per game (behind Stanford at 7th.)
A&M is 30th in steals per game (Stanford is not in the top 50.)
A&M and Stanford are exactly tied at 14 turnovers per game (making them 11th-12th)
A&M is 1st in turnover margin (Stanford is not in the top 50.)



Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - meos - 03-29-2011

All good points. On A&M vs Griner, they\'ve had 4 chances this year and  maybe 3 last year to get experience playing against a - 6\'8" Griner. A&M only won this last one, so  I wouldn\'t take too much solace in the fact that they finally won.
Easy to under-estimate how difficult it is to adjust to playing against that kind of 6\'8" 7\'5" wing-span player, for the FIRST time. Think North Carolina on steroids.
The other thing you shouldn\'t extrapolate from the A&M game is Sims performance. Colson did to Sims what Diggins did to Simmons.
I for one am OK with not seeing Baylor.

Not that A&M will be a picnic. But the Stan vs A&M game should be more up-tempo. Also should be a fair battle, and not 5 vs 8. I\'ll take that.

Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - 81alum - 03-29-2011

Questions/Observations.

On paper, it looks like their 3 point shooting should be decent, with 38% and a 39% shooters.  But they only made 2 3s tonight, but a lot of longish and midrange jumpers.  

A&M has the best turnover margin in the country.  Their quick guards get a lot of steals and deflections, and they get a lot of points off turnovers.  I expect they will make our constant perimeter passing as difficult as they can, by lunging and deflecting.

They have a lot of experience pushing Griner around.  I imagine Adams and others will try that against Nneka.  But Nneka and Chiney are far more agile than Griner and I\'m not sure that will work.  Can they push two bigs around at the same time?  If our O-team can dominate on the glass then we will be in good shape.

I am concerned about the zone to deny the entrance pass.  They used a 2-3 zone part of the time against Baylor--it looked a lot like the UCLA zone.   With those two quick guards at the top of the zone it could be as effective or more effective than UCLA.

They don\'t seem to score a lot of points--despite their national ranking in points scored.  In their four games against Baylor they scored almost the same every game--68.  But they are a disruptive defensive team and will probably mess up our normal triangle/offensive schemes.  

Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - M T - 03-30-2011

I wasn\'t too surprised that A&M beat Baylor.  Baylor was mostly one-dimensional.  The Aggies finally figured out how to disrupt Griner.  Having a 250 pounder push Griner around seems like an obvious thing. What surprised me was that the other players were able to keep it up.

I think UCLA would have been a tough game for us.  I\'d love to see ND take down UConn.  If that happens, I wouldn\'t be surprised if the NCAA instituted some rule to avoid 4th meetings of teams until as late as possible.  But if UConn wins (which I expect), there will be no such rule.

Did anyone else notice the John Travolta moment with a few seconds left in the first half?  (It almost seems intentional??)  See attached image.

Some things to note...
I had the impression that there were a lot of short arms on shots, esp. for Baylor.  Nerves?  Tired?  I think tiredness probably contributed to Griner\'s foul shooting.  

A&M played Duke close early in the year.  In late Feb, Texas played them close (3pt) in Austin, and the next week A&M lost a close game at K State.

At Texas, UT had a miserable first half (22% FG%, 8% 3PT%) followed by a great 2nd half (59%, 60%).  Rebounds were about even.  A&M had a lot fewer turnovers, due to 11 steals (vs 2 for Texas).  Also 20 more points in the paint, and 2nd chance points.  Adams got 26 pts.  No Aggie was in foul trouble.

K State hit ten 3ptrs (one soph guard had seven 3ptrs and 35 pts).  Sydney Colson had her 4th foul with 14 minutes left but still had 21 points.  A&M had 14 more rebounds.

I do believe that a lot of running will be a part of Stanford\'s plan.  I hope that making 3 point shots will be part of our game.

Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - fullmetal - 03-30-2011

Great Travolta screen capture :)

Does this Stanford team know how to beat a press?  Maybe I\'m conjuring ghosts of teams past...

Yeah. Travolta.  Didn\'t go all Scientology on us? - Redrum - 03-30-2011

Must be something when he and Katie Holmes husband get together to worship L. Ron.

Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - teejers1 - 03-30-2011

Great analysis, as usual, VG.  I am a bit surprised by your score prediction, however.

Is there any legitimate reason to think the Stanford guards can stay in front of Carter and Colson?  I have a hard time seeing it - maybe Toni (maybe, if she is healthy).  I see a lot of cross-overs for mid-range jumpers by A&M\'s guards (and they might even be more aggressive in going all the way to the hoop - they avoided that against Baylor with Griner lurking).

Couple other things:  

1.  Stanford cannot allow A&M to get those easy transition buckets (a couple lapses by Baylor led to ridiculously easy long passes/buckets by A&M).

2.  Nneka and Chiney should dominate inside offensively . . . if the ball can be delivered to the post.  Stanford must eliminate/limit TOs when getting the rock to the sisters.

3.  If Carter and Colson provide anticipated harassment level, look for Kayla to bring ball up (she is so skilled for a 3/4, it\'s ridiculous).

4.  Zone?  Wouldn\'t be surprised to see Stanford use it on Sunday.  [Actually, I\'ll be surprised if we don\'t see it at least a little].

Hope your confidence proves to be prophetic.

P.S.  The UConn-Duke game reiterated a regrettable truth:  when Maya Moore gets it going, UConn is unbeatable.  At Maples earlier this year, she was very pedestrian.  But I fear that had more to do with her than Stanford.  Oh well, first things first - please beat A&M.

Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - CompSci87 - 03-30-2011

Quote:Great Travolta screen capture :)

Does this Stanford team know how to beat a press?  Maybe I\'m conjuring ghosts of teams past...

They have been great at beating the press every time they\'ve seen it this year, and that\'s been often. For example, it was fun to watch St. John\'s try to press against the big lineup with Pohlen the only true guard. The book would say to press against a lineup of big players when you are smaller and quicker. Stanford calmly sliced up the press with deft passing over the heads of the smaller defenders, plus some good dribbling by the bigs when needed.

Alternatively, when Toni is on the floor, she can dribble around traps and leave the two players trying to trap her in the dust.


Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - Viking_Guy - 03-30-2011

Teejers--

Sorry, was unclear.  Was a "percentage chance of win" prediction of 60-40.  Stanford wins 3 out of 5, all else being equal.

And I think Maya\'s performance had a lot to do with Chiney and other players guarding her without giving up either tremendous height or tremendous quickness.  One underappreciated thing about having Jeanette, Kayla, Chiney and Nneka all playing - any time Stanford switches, there\'s not automatically a tremendous mismatch of some sort created.  I watched Georgetown approach the Huskies with the same gameplan - have someone in her grill for 40 minutes, and she responded by shooting 7-20.  In that game, UConn won (by only 5 points) because the Hoyas\' best player, Sugar Rodgers, had an absolutely horrid game (3-17 from the field, albeit thanks in large part to the defense of Kelly Faris).  The game was tied with 6 minutes left and Hoyas were only down 4 with under 2 minutes left.

VG


Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - Leftcoast - 03-30-2011

Re: Stanford v the full court press this season - In the games I\'ve watched Stanford beats the press and then settles into our half court offense.

What I haven\'t seen is Stanford making someone PAY for pressing us. If you\'ve got the guards then there\'s little downside to using this tactic to get the odd turnover or slow down the game\'s pace.   Maybe I just watched the wrong games.

Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - Viking_Guy - 03-30-2011

Lefty--

Yep, that\'s what I\'m always on about.  We are satisfied getting the ball into the frontcourt, then Jeanette pulls up and waits at the halfline for the offense to set.  One of the things I like about Toni on the press break - she goes to the basket if she\'s got numbers, and will hit that pull-up jumper from 8-10 feet if the last defender backs off and sets against the drive.

Of course, letting our offense get up court and get the bigs under the hoop is a good thing.  But it doesn\'t punish the press per se, and doesn\'t force an opponent to drop out of it.

One thing I\'m afraid both Gary Blair and Geno are smart enough to do - press and trap full-court, then drop back into a 2-3 zone if we don\'t attack the basket off the press break.  Though Geno might not have the numbers to do it.

Off-topic, is the Joanne Boyle ship for Kal women\'s b-ball starting to founder?

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncw/news/story?id=6273825

VG


Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - 81alum - 03-30-2011

Agreed with Viking-Guy on the Maya observation.  Auriemma has since bemoaned his stubborness in that game in keeping trying to run plays for Maya when he should have started setting up his other players.  We did prove that we can "control" her (though 14 points would be very good for most mortals) but the real story is not that Maya had an off night but that Tiffany Hayes was unable to capitalize on all of our attention to Maya.  Tiffany was 1-9 (1-5 three pointers) and there were times when we just ignored her and let her have open shots to keep harassing Maya.  I doubt that we can get away with that strategy a second time.  I\'m hoping (a little forlornly) that Notre Dame can do what A&M did so we don\'t have to.

I\'m entirely in agreement with VG (why not be, since I\'ve found him to be always right!) that our game with A&M will hinge on limiting our turnovers and dominating O-boards--neither of which is a sure thing.  

I\'m less worried about breaking the press that we are expecting (agreed with fullmetal\'s arguments) than I am about lazy or bad angle passes in the half court getting deflected and leading to transitions for A&M.  Picture two Vandersloots on defense, even if neither of the guards is quite up to her standards on offense.  The good news is that Sloot only had 2 steals and we had more points off turnovers against Gonzaga than they did--even though we had a lot of turnovers.  If we can do half that well against A&M we will be in business.

Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - treefan - 03-30-2011

I think ND will beat UConn

Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - Yellowlab - 03-30-2011

I agree with VG (wbbfan was worried about you after the UNC game) on just about all the points he\'s made.  So, I have only a few additional comments.  

1.) I am super happy to be playing A+M instead of Baylor, because I have an enormous amount of confidence in Stanford\'s coaches.  They will game plan A+M.  How do you game plan Baylor?  I thought they were 1-d last year, but Sims changed everything this year.  
2.) Stanford\'s ability to switch defenders and still guard is something I cannot recall seeing before.  That is what forced Maya into such poor shooting earlier this year.  Pick off Chiney, and have Kayla in your face or vice versa?  Not easy.  What other team could do it?
3.) A+M\'s guards are good.  That\'s a bit of a worry.  However,  I think Stanford\'s front court is simply too good for A+M to handle.
4.) I didn\'t want to play UCLA for a 4th time, unless it was in the final four.  (They have to change the seedings next year.) So, ND has a shot against UConn.  However, I put A+M in the second tier of good teams for a reason, and I am not changing my mind now.  Stanford is simply the better team.  However, you have to play the games, and nothing is set in stone.
5.) I am SO pumped for a Stanford-UConn rematch, I cannot begin to put it into words.  If my head explodes. wbbfan will let you know.

On to Indy.

Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - Viking_Guy - 03-30-2011

It wasn\'t just Chiney to Kayla.  I remember one sequence from the UConn game where Chiney handed Maya off to Jeanette, who handed off to Lindy, who handed off to Nneka, all to keep a person constantly on her through all picks.

Of course, that defense is what gets exploited by a vulnerability to the pick and roll, which has seemed to be the preferred offense against us late in the season, and is what in part made a zone on Monday so effective - as long as Sloot had someone on her, the rest of her team was facing our front line under the hoop.  No easy rolls to the basket through a cleared lane for layups.

That\'s one of the things that concerns me about the quickness of A&M\'s guards.  If the hedge by the picked player is a split-second late or she gets trapped under the pick, Colson and Carter will be at the rim before outside help can arrive from a man defense. If Adams were at all inclined to work, I think she would be absolutely deadly setting one of a double-high pick at the elbows, and then rolling to the basket, given her finishing ability against anyone not 6\'8".

While White has normally started, I\'m thinking they\'ll probably start Gilbert; I don\'t think you can go with a frontline of 6\'1" (even if she is 250+), 6\'1" and thin, and 6\' against O-squared and Pedersen.

I think the UCLA-A&M comparison is not bad - UCLA a little quicker at the 4-5, A&M at the 1-2, but the Aggies have a true post scorer, which is something the Bruins lack.  

VG


Re: WBB: Sizing up Texas A&M - 81alum - 03-30-2011

Quote: While White has normally started, I\'m thinking they\'ll probably start Gilbert; I don\'t think you can go with a frontline of 6\'1" (even if she is 250+), 6\'1" and thin, and 6\' against O-squared and Pedersen

Gilbert, who is 6\'5",  has started 4 games this year, it seems she replaces Elonu when she does.  She averages 12 minutes a game.  She averages 4 pts. and 3 rebounds in that very limited time.  She hits 53% of her shots.  I really don\'t know why she has not been used more, other than that she is a freshman and Elonu is a junior.  But even if she does not start, we will see a lot of her, as Baylor did.

Danielle Adams and Karla Gilbert in there together have a lot of height and weight and will present a challenge to Nneka and Chiney.  Our O team won\'t dominate the glass as easily as they did against Gonzaga.  With the officiating at this time of year permitting a lot of contact it won\'t be easy.