Today in concerning statistics - Printable Version
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Today in concerning statistics - washingtonismoney - 11-08-2015
Of Hogan's 6 interceptions, 3 have been intended for Trent Irwin.
Re: Today in concerning statistics - stupac2 - 11-08-2015
Why is this concerning?
Re: Today in concerning statistics - washingtonismoney - 11-08-2015
(11-08-2015, 09:42 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:Why is this concerning?
His tendency to lock onto receivers disturbs me. Maybe not you.
Re: Today in concerning statistics - standfan - 11-08-2015
It doesn't concern me. I suspect on some he was not the primary receiver which increases the chances of a bad throw.
As for yesterday's pick, it looked like Trent was open and about to be wide open- the primary defender was two long strides behind and the safety was not in a position to keep up with TI's slant towards the goal line. A ball with more loft was probably a TD.
Re: Today in concerning statistics - winflop - 11-08-2015
(11-08-2015, 09:45 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=13563.msg140330#msg140330 date=1447000946]
Why is this concerning?
His tendency to lock onto receivers disturbs me. Maybe not you.
[/quote]
I see less of that this year. On the TD throw to Rector, Hogan was looking to the other side, and doing so long enough that he probably looked off two receivers on that side. Then he came back to Rector and threw a dime.
Re: Today in concerning statistics - standfan - 11-08-2015
(11-08-2015, 09:45 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=13563.msg140330#msg140330 date=1447000946]
Why is this concerning?
His tendency to lock onto receivers disturbs me. Maybe not you.
[/quote]
I'm confused. What does any tendency Hogan has to lock onto receivers (which is much less of a problem this year) have to do with 3 of 6 picks being passes targeted for Irwin?
Re: Today in concerning statistics - washingtonismoney - 11-08-2015
(11-08-2015, 09:49 AM)standfan link Wrote:[quote author=washingtonismoney link=topic=13563.msg140332#msg140332 date=1447001116]
[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=13563.msg140330#msg140330 date=1447000946]
Why is this concerning?
His tendency to lock onto receivers disturbs me. Maybe not you.
[/quote]
I'm confused. What does any tendency Hogan has to lock onto receivers (which is much less of a problem this year) have to do with 3 of 6 picks being passes targeted for Irwin?
[/quote]
Well, Irwin accounts for 50% of the interceptions but surely isn't out there for 50% of snaps, is he?
If you look at the actual interceptions, there are something like eight defenders around Irwin in total -- he's open on none of them. It's just poor decision-making, of the type you'd hope would be beyond Hogan.
Re: Today in concerning statistics - oman - 11-08-2015
I think Hogan is just pretending to look at other receivers. Eyes are staying locked -- head is just swiveling for effect to please the armchair quarterbacks.
Re: Today in concerning statistics - OutsiderFan - 11-08-2015
Even on the pick (intended for Irwin at Colorado), Hogan looked left before going back right and throwing. My assumption is Hogan never saw the Safety and wouldn't have thrown it if he did. Moreover, I know at least one one of those picks WIM references (at OSU) bounced off Irwin and should have been caught by Irwin.Â
That said, Hogan could certainly stand to cut down on his interceptions. A 16-6 TD to INT ratio is OK, but not great.
Re: Today in concerning statistics - stupac2 - 11-08-2015
(11-08-2015, 09:55 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:[quote author=standfan link=topic=13563.msg140336#msg140336 date=1447001351]
[quote author=washingtonismoney link=topic=13563.msg140332#msg140332 date=1447001116]
[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=13563.msg140330#msg140330 date=1447000946]
Why is this concerning?
His tendency to lock onto receivers disturbs me. Maybe not you.
[/quote]
I'm confused. What does any tendency Hogan has to lock onto receivers (which is much less of a problem this year) have to do with 3 of 6 picks being passes targeted for Irwin?
[/quote]
Well, Irwin accounts for 50% of the interceptions but surely isn't out there for 50% of snaps, is he?
If you look at the actual interceptions, there are something like eight defenders around Irwin in total -- he's open on none of them. It's just poor decision-making, of the type you'd hope would be beyond Hogan.
[/quote]
Or he's a college quarterback who sometimes makes bad decisions. The majority of his throws to Irwin have been good, some weren't. Likewise, the majority of his throws to all receivers have been good, some weren't. I think you're reading too much into something that is almost certainly a result of randomness.
Re: Today in concerning statistics - BostonCard - 11-08-2015
Would this be the appropriate place to note that the future "first quarterback to be taken in the draft" has twice as many interceptions as Hogan?
Hogan has thrown an interception on 3% of his passes. Thats a bit higher than the average pac-12 mark. For comparison, Kessler's rate is 1.8%, Falk's is 1.4%, Goff's is 3.4%, and Rosen (who is on a remarkable stretch of not throwing INT's, is 2.2%). I think given the fact that Hogan throws it downfield more often than many of these quarterbacks (his 9.1 yards per attempt lead the conference), I'm not overly concerned.
BC
Re: Today in concerning statistics - Hulk01 - 11-08-2015
Its situational--and the situation where Hogan struggles is third and passing. Fve of his six ints have been on third and four or more--five on just 51 throws, or almost 10%.Â
Hes pressing, and Irwin is the his only good route runner other than Christian. Defenses are overloading on Irwin because theyre West Coach coaches, so they've seen Irwin, or heard about him, since he was an eighth grader.
Hogans other third down option has been Hooper: four catches on third and seven or more. But defenses know Hooper is the Hogans likely target.
Its hard for a QB to resist looking to Irwin because its easy to assume hes open; he would be if defenses werent overloading on him.Â
Its the issue with this offense; we are not a good third-and-passing team. Some of us thought that Irwin could help this, if not solve in almost entirely. But we need a second viable third down receiver or defenses are going to blanket Irwin.
Re: Today in concerning statistics - winflop - 11-08-2015
(11-08-2015, 10:01 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:A 16-6 TD to INT ratio is OK, but not great.
LMAO
Third down challenges - Hulk01 - 11-08-2015
Perhaps by accident, you have raised the big issue in this years offense: Third down conversions passing.
Were great when we can run on third down. But check these numbers for conversion catches on third and 4-10:
2010:
Griff Whalen 5
Zach Ertz 4
Doug Baldwin 4
Ryan Whalen 4
Chris Owusu 3
Coby Fleener 2
Team total: 25, 1.92 per game
2011:
Griff Whalen 8
Coby Fleener 6
Zach Ertz 5
Chris Owusu 3
Levine Toilolo: 3
Team total: 31, 2.38 per game
2015
Trent Irwin 3
Austin Hooper 2
Christian McCaffrey 2
Devin Cajuste 1
Francis Owusu 1
Team total: 11, 1.22 per game
Re: Third down challenges - CTcard - 11-08-2015
(11-08-2015, 01:32 PM)Hulk01 link Wrote:[font=georgia]
Were great when we can run on third down. But check these numbers for conversion catches on third and 4-10:
Where did you get these numbers Hulk?
I haven't seen them compiled.
My best guess as the easiest way to compile these is to comb through the Play Breakdown Summaries at the end of the official box scores, but those don't go back to 2011.
If you went through each individual box score, contgrates to you - but it's not something I'm going to replicate.
At any rate, percentage of converting a 3rd and 4-10 (or any other) is probably more relevant than the total number. If you simply never put yourself in third and long that is hardly a bad thing.
Re: Today in concerning statistics - Hulk01 - 11-08-2015
Go to CFB.Â
'
Then to Stanford for the season in question, then to receivers.
Check their "situational statistics."Â
You can get the receivers' catches by situation, including all 3tds, for example, as well as 3rd and 1-3; 4-7, 7-10; 10+' and 4th down.
Andrew et. all were aces in those situations, but we haven't been since. It's a weakness.
Re: Today in concerning statistics - stupac2 - 11-08-2015
(11-08-2015, 06:28 PM)Hulk01 link Wrote:Go to CFB.Â
'
Then to Stanford for the season in question, then to receivers.
Check their "situational statistics."Â
You can get the receivers' catches by situation, including all 3tds, for example, as well as 3rd and 1-3; 4-7, 7-10; 10+' and 4th down.
Andrew et. all were aces in those situations, but we haven't been since. It's a weakness.
I'd be curious how that compares to other teams. It's not like any team really does well in 3rd and long.
Re: Third down challenges - BostonCard - 11-08-2015
(11-08-2015, 01:32 PM)Hulk01 link Wrote:[font=georgia]Perhaps by accident, you have raised the big issue in this years offense: Third down conversions passing.
Were great when we can run on third down. But check these numbers for conversion catches on third and 4-10:
I'm not sure the comparison's are valid. Using catches rather than throws is a mistake, because it doesn't give you the denominator: how many times we've had third down in a given situation. See the table below (from cfbstats.com)
| Situation | G | Att | Comp | Pct. | Yards | TD | Int | Rating | Long | 1st | 15+ | 25+ |
| 2015 | ||||||||||||
| 3rd Down | 9 | 62 | 31 | 50.0 | 444 | 3 | 5 | 109.99 | 93 | 20 | 10 | 3 |
| 3rd Down, 1-3 To Go | 4 | 6 | 5 | 83.3 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 153.33 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 4-6 To Go | 8 | 16 | 7 | 43.8 | 76 | 1 | 1 | 91.78 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 3rd Down, 7-9 To Go | 8 | 18 | 7 | 38.9 | 86 | 0 | 3 | 45.70 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 10+ To Go | 9 | 22 | 12 | 54.5 | 232 | 2 | 1 | 164.04 | 93 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 4th Down | 4 | 5 | 5 | 100.0 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 275.20 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| 2014 | ||||||||||||
| 3rd Down | 13 | 103 | 54 | 52.4 | 701 | 8 | 3 | 129.40 | 44 | 38 | 17 | 7 |
| 3rd Down, 1-3 To Go | 8 | 13 | 9 | 69.2 | 90 | 3 | 0 | 203.53 | 28 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 3rd Down, 4-6 To Go | 10 | 34 | 17 | 50.0 | 216 | 2 | 0 | 122.78 | 44 | 17 | 4 | 2 |
| 3rd Down, 7-9 To Go | 13 | 26 | 13 | 50.0 | 203 | 2 | 1 | 133.28 | 43 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| 3rd Down, 10+ To Go | 11 | 30 | 15 | 50.0 | 192 | 1 | 2 | 101.43 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 2 |
| 4th Down | 3 | 4 | 1 | 25.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 37.60 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2013 | ||||||||||||
| 3rd Down | 14 | 95 | 54 | 56.8 | 1022 | 6 | 3 | 161.73 | 78 | 45 | 22 | 14 |
| 3rd Down, 1-3 To Go | 11 | 24 | 11 | 45.8 | 183 | 1 | 0 | 123.63 | 48 | 11 | 4 | 3 |
| 3rd Down, 4-6 To Go | 12 | 25 | 15 | 60.0 | 271 | 1 | 0 | 164.26 | 78 | 14 | 6 | 3 |
| 3rd Down, 7-9 To Go | 11 | 19 | 11 | 57.9 | 242 | 3 | 1 | 206.46 | 72 | 9 | 5 | 3 |
| 3rd Down, 10+ To Go | 11 | 27 | 17 | 63.0 | 326 | 1 | 2 | 161.79 | 51 | 11 | 7 | 5 |
| 4th Down | 4 | 5 | 2 | 40.0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 63.52 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2012 | ||||||||||||
| 3rd Down | 14 | 113 | 58 | 51.3 | 690 | 3 | 3 | 106.07 | 46 | 36 | 18 | 5 |
| 3rd Down, 1-3 To Go | 9 | 21 | 9 | 42.9 | 116 | 0 | 1 | 79.74 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| 3rd Down, 4-6 To Go | 12 | 39 | 19 | 48.7 | 267 | 2 | 0 | 123.15 | 46 | 16 | 7 | 1 |
| 3rd Down, 7-9 To Go | 12 | 33 | 16 | 48.5 | 164 | 0 | 2 | 78.12 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 1 |
| 3rd Down, 10+ To Go | 13 | 20 | 14 | 70.0 | 143 | 1 | 0 | 146.56 | 35 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 4th Down | 4 | 5 | 3 | 60.0 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 82.16 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2011 | ||||||||||||
| 3rd Down | 13 | 119 | 73 | 61.3 | 836 | 7 | 7 | 128.01 | 39 | 53 | 20 | 8 |
| 3rd Down, 1-3 To Go | 11 | 28 | 15 | 53.6 | 191 | 2 | 3 | 113.01 | 39 | 13 | 4 | 3 |
| 3rd Down, 4-6 To Go | 13 | 54 | 31 | 57.4 | 310 | 4 | 1 | 126.37 | 29 | 24 | 6 | 2 |
| 3rd Down, 7-9 To Go | 11 | 19 | 12 | 63.2 | 125 | 1 | 2 | 114.74 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 3rd Down, 10+ To Go | 10 | 18 | 15 | 83.3 | 210 | 0 | 1 | 170.22 | 27 | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| 4th Down | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100.0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 455.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2010 | ||||||||||||
| 3rd Down | 13 | 96 | 66 | 68.8 | 882 | 8 | 1 | 171.35 | 52 | 47 | 28 | 7 |
| 3rd Down, 1-3 To Go | 10 | 22 | 15 | 68.2 | 188 | 2 | 0 | 169.96 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 1 |
| 3rd Down, 4-6 To Go | 12 | 28 | 20 | 71.4 | 218 | 2 | 0 | 160.40 | 52 | 13 | 5 | 2 |
| 3rd Down, 7-9 To Go | 11 | 20 | 16 | 80.0 | 289 | 4 | 0 | 267.38 | 34 | 12 | 11 | 4 |
| 3rd Down, 10+ To Go | 12 | 26 | 15 | 57.7 | 187 | 0 | 1 | 110.41 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| 4th Down | 3 | 4 | 1 | 25.0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -12.40 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Re: Today in concerning statistics - BostonCard - 11-08-2015
Looking at the numbers I posted, our completion percentage is down a bit on third and longish (4-10 yards), though the numbers (34 total instances, down by about 10% from last years) aren't very large. Overall, our passing rating is down even compared to last year, but close to 2012 (which includes our stats with Nunes as a starter). But there is a lot of noise in the numbers; it's hard to believe that Andrew Luck regressed from 2010 to 2011, but his completion percentage on third and fourth down and his passer rating declined. Likewise, our numbers seem to have declined from last year to this year, after having declined from 2013 to 2014.
BC
Re: Third down challenges - CrazedZooChimp - 11-08-2015
(11-08-2015, 07:28 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:[quote author=Hulk01 link=topic=13563.msg140407#msg140407 date=1447014748]
[font=georgia]Perhaps by accident, you have raised the big issue in this years offense: Third down conversions passing.
Were great when we can run on third down. But check these numbers for conversion catches on third and 4-10:
I'm not sure the comparison's are valid. Using catches rather than throws is a mistake, because it doesn't give you the denominator: how many times we've had third down in a given situation. See the table below (from cfbstats.com)
[/quote]
Assuming I understand statistics, we should always put ourselves in fourth down situations because we convert those 100% of the time. Booyah.